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December 2011 NPD Predictions - Closes Jan. 9
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
bigtroyjon
Member
Some reasons I can think of.
1. PS3 had the popular BF bundle that sold out this year and was likely the main cog in the November sales. Not many price promotions in December.
2. 360 had shortages last December so the full on Kinect hype was unrealized. They also had a ton of December price promotions this year(gift cards in every major retailer).
3. 360/Kinect was the must have holiday gift based on various factors including women pepper spraying the crowd to get a deal on the 360 during Black Friday. That type of hysteria has been previously attributed to must have Christmas gifts like Beanie Babies and Tickle Me Elmo.
4. PS3's Dec growth last year was primarily due to the incredibly lackluster Nov sales, not due to some kind of Nov-Dec growth pattern.
5. NPD predictions threads are mainly made of people's guesses that are similar to throwing darts at the wall and aren't a bunch of thoughtful, educated guesses.
6. Tebow!
Given 5 above, 6 was redundant!
SonicX_Zero
Member
[360] 2350K
[3DS] 1700K
[NDS] 250K
[PS3] 1650K
[WII] 1000K
[3DS] 1700K
[NDS] 250K
[PS3] 1650K
[WII] 1000K
archnemesis
Member
[360] 2350k
[3DS] 1650k
[NDS] 240k
[PS3] 1300k
[WII] 1050k
[3DS] 1650k
[NDS] 240k
[PS3] 1300k
[WII] 1050k
bigtroyjon
Member
I believe Gamestop will be releasing holiday sales numbers tomorrow morning. Doubtful there will be any specific unit numbers but should give a decent idea on how things were compared to previous years.
jamesinclair
Banned
[360] 2,222,222
[3DS] 1,999,999
[WII] 1,345,678
[PS3] 1,234,567
[NDS] 555,555
[3DS] 1,999,999
[WII] 1,345,678
[PS3] 1,234,567
[NDS] 555,555
SuperBanjo
Member
[360] 2200K
[3DS] 1600K
[NDS] 250K
[PS3] 1300K
[WII] 1100K
[3DS] 1600K
[NDS] 250K
[PS3] 1300K
[WII] 1100K
Psp numbers haven't been included in npd numbers for aaaages.
Opus Angelorum
Member
PSVita going to be the same?
Only if 3DS consistently sells 2-3x as much as it every month.
jamesinclair
Banned
We all know that the real world sells in pretty numbers
Dedication Through Light
Member
Seems Wii didnt do too well.
I edited my original prediction, by downcasting my 3DS from 1900k to 1700k.
Hope that's okay!
The predictions get collected at the cutoff time, so if it was edited before that, it'll be in.
GarthVaderUK
Banned
Quite different predictions there, did one of them get it the wrong way round by mistake?
I'm fairly sure I've transcribed correctly. I'll double check.Quite different predictions there, did one of them get it the wrong way round by mistake?
Edit: Yeah, I think I've transcribed correctly. If there's a mistake, it's in the original document.
GarthVaderUK
Banned
I never would've doubted it brah!
bigtroyjon
Member
When was the last time that Pachter didn't underestimate 360 sales? Prior to Kinect?
(I base this on nothing other than my memory so I could be wrong, just seems like he's always low balling it.)
(I base this on nothing other than my memory so I could be wrong, just seems like he's always low balling it.)
AdventureRacing
Member
test_account
XP-39C²
I have PSP at just over a million for the year to date, not counting December.
specialguy
Banned
why not? on ms it looks about right, anywhere from 2-2.5m is likely, probably in the higher end of that range.
for example last year 4th quarter ms shipped worldwide 1.77 times as many 360's as npd reported sold in the usa in that quarter. if the multiplier is the same this time, they'd need to sell ~4.7 in the usa (1.77x4.7=8.4). so far we have 1.7 (nov)+~400k (oct)=2.1. So, they'd need about 2.6 in Dec NPD. so i guess by that reasoning pachter looks a little low, but nothing major.
But that assumes the multiplier is exactly 1.77, it actually can vary of course. just putting out some ballpark stuff.
I think we will be in for a surprise re PS3. it will be a lot higher than 1.36m.