Support NeoGAF

[StreetsAhead]

Yeah, im sure someone would have been called crazy if they posted an exact sales future for wiiu last year. I said theoretically meaning i'll wait to see how other games impact wiiu, but if monthly sales are sub 40k going into november it certainly could happen.

Well, I'll agree that if the system can't pull itself above 40K in a month with Pikmin, TW101, LoZ, and Wii Fit, then there's more reason to be concerned. Just as if there was anything in July that was supposed to have improved the system's sales over June, rather than continuing its freefall, I'd agree too.

 

[CosmicQueso]

The crazy things people type when they're upset.

I wish it was crazy and not possible

 

[Calamari41]

I bet that demo turned a lot of people off. I love RPGs and was set to buy it till I played that demo, but the atrocious animu character models did it no favors either.

This exact thing happened to me, too.

 

[gigantor21]

The crazy things people type when they're upset.

As crazy as selling 160k units globally in three months? Or still selling less than the Gamecube in the same timeframe despite the GC not launching in Europe until May?

I've been willing to give the WiiU the benefit of the doubt. But after seeing the latest earnings report and the last few NPDs, I'm gonna have to see some hard numbers before I'm convinced it can right itself.

 

[Razdek]

Once Vita drops the price, Tearaway and Killzone is released, and the PS4 comes out the Vita sales are going to go sky high because of remote play. This is just little setback as the Vita is primed to make the biggest comeback ever seen.

 

[cosmicblizzard]

Wiiu lower than any month of the horrible selling gamecube until freaking 2007 should tell you what the situation is. I can believe anyone thinks wiiu or vita will recover. Without a pricedrop we could theoretically see a sub 100k November as DK isn't pushing a thing. What a disaster.

sub-100k during a holiday month would be beyond abysmal. I really can't see it happening, but if it did, there's no way Iwata would be able to continue keeping his fingers in his ears. Something drastic would have to be done, whether it be a ridiculously expensive marketing campaign, cutting the price in half, flat out buying major third party studios, or anything else.

 

[lwilliams3]

So WiiU is DOA until a price drop it seems. If they don't do a price drop for the holidays and new consoles then might as well pack it up. Even then I'm not sure a price drop will save the system.

Or until games are releases. Remember that Pikmin 3 was just released this month, and other 1st party games will follow throughout the rest of the year.

 

[DaBoss]

Selling sub-100K in November would be dead. It should get some good black friday deals and have some sort of holiday momentum.

Once Vita drops the price, Tearaway and Killzone is released, and the PS4 comes out the Vita sales are going to go sky high because of remote play. This is just little setback as the Vita is primed to make the biggest comeback ever seen.

Are you sure heatwaves won't interfere with The Greatest Comeback Ever Seen™?

Spoiler

Gamechanger™

 

[Phil4000]

Once Vita drops the price, Tearaway and Killzone is released, and the PS4 comes out the Vita sales are going to go sky high because of remote play. This is just little setback as the Vita is primed to make the biggest comeback ever seen.

One Last Shot!.. to turn her around

 

[B.O.O.M]

I don't think WiiU will have a better time going forward even with more notable games. Going forward we will most likely see price drops for PS360 as well as two brand new consoles on the market. Will the market decide they are also as unexciting as the wiiu to them is an unknown but I doubt they will ever hit these lows. But then again crazier things have happened lol

 

[gigantor21]

Once Vita drops the price, Tearaway and Killzone is released, and the PS4 comes out the Vita sales are going to go sky high because of remote play. This is just little setback as the Vita is primed to make the biggest comeback ever seen.

...that's not funny.

Seriously, though, I can't think of anything I'm looking forward to buying for mine after Blackgate and Tearaway. Maybe FFX if it comes out in December or something, but nothing at all after that. *sigh*

 

[donny2112]

Going by the posts until now this is roughly the picture for July:

3DS - 150,000
360 - 107,000
PS3 - 79,000
Wii ~ 35.000
3DS ~ 31.000
WiiU ~ 29.000
Vita ~ 16.000

Very cool. Still reading through the thread, but unless better numbers came up after this post, this'll be used for predictions this month.

 

[metalslimer]

sub-100k during a holiday month would be beyond abysmal. I really can't see it happening, but if it did, there's no way Iwata would be able to continue keeping his fingers in his ears. Something drastic would have to be done, whether it be a ridiculously expensive marketing campaign, cutting the price in half, flat out buying major third party studios, or anything else.

Just to point out, but even if it does go over 100k, there is still a long way to get out of the catastrohically abysmal range. And 3D World, the game parents should be buying for their kids on black friday is out in december. The 3ds,ps3, 360, ps4, and xbone will all be sucking the money out of consumers as well. It certainly will be fun to watch.

 

[Razdek]

...that's not funny.

Seriously, though, I can't think of anything I'm looking forward to buying for mine after Blackgate and Tearaway. Maybe FFX if it comes out in December or something, but nothing at all after that. *sigh*

The sea of indie games don't interest you? I hope they announce Gravity Rush 2 soon.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Btw, the Wii U managed to sell above 40k with Lego City and Monster Hunter right this past March right? While the sales are really crappy now, it'd be even sadder if Pikmin 3 along with the multiplats listed can't make the Wii U break 40k. I think it will, although that's not saying much.

 

[cosmicblizzard]

Just to point out, but even if it does go over 100k, there is still a long way to get out of the catastrohically abysmal range. And 3D World, the game parents should be buying for their kids on black friday is out in december.

Oh absolutely. I'd say 400-500k is the safe zone with 700k and up the respectable zone. Below 100k would just be pretty far past catastrophically abysmal. Like, people need to go immediately levels of abysmal without even waiting until the end of the fiscal year, unless of course 3DS somehow breaks 2-3 million or something.

 

[shinra-bansho]

For the GCN in 2002 from August onwards apparently these were the major releases according to Wiki?

August
Super Monkey Ball 2
Super Mario Sunshine

September
Animal Crossing

October
Godzilla: Destroy All Monsters Melee
Mario Party 4

November
Resident Evil 0
Metroid Prime
Baldur's Gate: Dark Alliance

December
The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker

 

[Glorified G]

The Vita sold 200k last November.

With a $50 price drop with most retailers including that crazy ass AC Liberation, PS All Stars, 3 Months PS+, $10 Gift Card good towards Assassin’s Creed 3 (360/PS3) for $179.99 at amazon. Wii U isn't touching those numbers at $300.

 

[SolarPowered]

Wiiu lower than any month of the horrible selling gamecube until freaking 2007 should tell you what the situation is. I can believe anyone thinks wiiu or vita will recover. Without a pricedrop we could theoretically see a sub 100k November as DK isn't pushing a thing. What a disaster.

Don't even go there. Numbers even close to that for November would cause epic tooth gnashing and waves of bannings that would be talked about for years. I don't even want to imagine what shareholders would do to Iwata lol.

For the GCN in 2002 from August onwards apparently these were the major releases according to Wiki?

August
Super Monkey Ball 2
Super Mario Sunshine

September
Animal Crossing

October
Godzilla: Destroy All Monsters Melee
Mario Party 4

November
Resident Evil 0
Metroid Prime
Baldur's Gate: Dark Alliance

December
The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker

That was an unforgettable Fall and Winter.

Anyone got that comparison line chart for N64, GCN, Wii and Wii U? GC had a very nice bump thanks to Metroid Prime iirc.

 

[Sandfox]

sub-100k during a holiday month would be beyond abysmal. I really can't see it happening, but if it did, there's no way Iwata would be able to continue keeping his fingers in his ears. Something drastic would have to be done, whether it be a ridiculously expensive marketing campaign, cutting the price in half, flat out buying major third party studios, or anything else.

I kinda doubt Iwata is trying to ignore this.

 

[RoShamBo]

Could I get the LTD for XCOM?

 

[metalslimer]

With a $50 price drop with most retailers including that crazy ass AC Liberation, PS All Stars, 3 Months PS+, $10 Gift Card good towards Assassin’s Creed 3 (360/PS3) for $179.99 at amazon. Wii U isn't touching those numbers at $300.

350, the basic model has been discontinued which makes things even worse. There is the WW bundle coming which hopefully is350, but the nintendo as of late will price it at 400.

100k probably won't happen, but i still think 350 dollars destroys their chances with families who are the key demo this holiday.

 

[gigantor21]

The sea of indie games don't interest you? I hope they announce Gravity Rush 2 soon.

I was attracted to the Vita mainly for the bigger retail games. Stuff like Muramasa Rebirth (which I missed out on due to not having a Wii), Soul Sacrifice, and so forth. That's going to be a serious problem with the platformed abandoned by many third-parties, and Sony juggling three platforms--two of which make far more sense to put their focus on. :/

 

[B.O.O.M]

I was attracted to the Vita mainly for the bigger retail games. Stuff like Muramasa Rebirth (which I missed out on due to not having a Wii), Soul Sacrifice, and so forth. That's going to be a serious problem with the platformed abandoned by many third-parties, and Sony juggling three platforms--two of which make far more sense to put their focus on. :/

u no like Ys?

 

[beast786]

170k

Thanks Raist.

 

[gigantor21]

u no like Ys?

Not really an RPG guy. Strangely enough, Final Fantasy X is one of my all time favorite games. I'm buying the shit out of that later this year.

 

[cosmicblizzard]

I kinda doubt Iwata is trying to ignore this.

Yeah, I know. Sometimes, you gotta wonder though. I've been pretty optimistic with the Wii U, fully expecting things to turn around eventually, and I'm still trying not to go full cynic, but these numbers are pretty bad and it's hard to imagine Iwata's plan causing a massive turnaround. I hope it does though. I've had a very lovely week with Pikmin 3, and I do believe the Wii U deserves at least a sustainable level of success.

That "secret" stuff that's supposed to launch later this year better be something amazing.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Yeah, I know. Sometimes, you gotta wonder though. I've been pretty optimistic with the Wii U, fully expecting things to turn around eventually, and I'm still trying not to go full cynic, but these numbers are pretty bad and it's hard to imagine Iwata's plan causing a massive turnaround. I hope it does though. I've had a very lovely week with Pikmin 3, and I do believe the Wii U deserves at least a sustainable level of success.

That "secret" stuff that's supposed to launch later this year better be something amazing.

Secret stuff? What do you mean exactly?

 

[shinra-bansho]

Even with that line up I don't think the GCN had a particularly atypical 'holiday multiplier' although I don't have the data handy. Will have a look later.

 

[qko]

Selling sub-100K in November would be dead. It should get some good black friday deals and have some sort of holiday momentum.



Are you sure heatwaves won't interfere with The Greatest Comeback Ever Seen™?

Spoiler

Gamechanger™

With portables it will be the opposite. Extremely cold Winter in November will dissuade American consumers to buy the Vita in mass droves since they can't take their beautiful machines out in public. Wait for triple combo Greatest Comeback Ever Seen™ of Gaikai unveiling Vita to be relegated to Remote Control status, God of War and "E3 2014 to be 'Vita-gasm' hype" to use the heat wave excuse when the Vita sells less than 30k next summer.

 

[RedSwirl]

If the Wii U does sub-100k in November even I'll give up on it. What are people currently expecting for November anyway? Usually the first November after launch is when a new platform really get's going. Looking at things now, too many of the Wii U's major games are pushed back to 2014.

...and how the fuck is Far Cry 3 still charting? They didn't count Steam sale numbers did they? In terms of retail I think FC3 was half-off on Amazon a couple times this summer but that's it.

 

[ghst]

did we get a june number for TLOU, was it crazy front loaded? 170k seems pretty dire for its 3rd-8th weeks on sale. i assumed it would've had better word of mouth.

 

[Huff]

did we get a june number for TLOU, was it crazy front loaded? 170k seems pretty dire for its 3rd-8th weeks on sale. i assumed it would've had better word of mouth.

980kish

this whole month was bad

 

[Aquamarine]

Wiiu lower than any month of the horrible selling gamecube until freaking 2007 should tell you what the situation is. I can believe anyone thinks wiiu or vita will recover. Without a pricedrop we could theoretically see a sub 100k November as DK isn't pushing a thing. What a disaster.

So we have accurate numbers for Wii U hardware sales yet?

Around 29k.

I can confirm that ~29K for Wii U is indeed accurate.

 

[Bruno MB]

Even with that line up I don't think the GCN had a particularly atypical 'holiday multiplier' although I don't have the data handy. Will have a look later.

I have these figures.

August 2002 - 128,000
September 2002 - 167,000
October 2002 - 168,000
November 2002 - 468,000
December 2002 - 619,000

 

[Aquamarine]

Very cool. Still reading through the thread, but unless better numbers came up after this post, this'll be used for predictions this month.

Don't forget about the revolutionary cloud consoles!

3DS - 150,000
360 - 107,000
PS3 - 79,000
Wii ~ 35.000
DS ~ 31.000
WiiU ~ 29.000
Vita ~ 16.000
Ouya - >5,000-<10,000
Shield - <10,000

 

[Megadragon15]

Once Vita drops the price, Tearaway and Killzone is released, and the PS4 comes out the Vita sales are going to go sky high because of remote play. This is just little setback as the Vita is primed to make the biggest comeback ever seen.

If by sky high you mean clearanced out at retail, then you might be correct. The PS Vita is going down like the Titanic.

 

[lwilliams3]

Just to point out, but even if it does go over 100k, there is still a long way to get out of the catastrohically abysmal range. And 3D World, the game parents should be buying for their kids on black friday is out in december. The 3ds,ps3, 360, ps4, and xbone will all be sucking the money out of consumers as well. It certainly will be fun to watch.

Would that depend on how far above 100k?

I think some people are getting a bit overanxious to announce Wii U's doom. Starting this month, games are being released that may or may not revive the console. I don't see how people wouldn't expect the Wii U to perform the same or worse during the month that they began to market a game that was not going to be released until the following month.

While its cool to discuss the chances on Wii U recovering, using this month's sales numbers as any basis to what may happen for the rest of the year and/or making insane "theoretical" statements like Wii U performing significantly worsen than the Vita last year just seems very silly IMO.

Also, how well the PS4 and XBOX can do this holiday will be hindered to shipments and supply. We don't have enough info to determine how that will be, though it is likely that XBO will have more issues with that than PS4. Time will tell. It is close, so no need to go crazy.

 

[Bullza2o]

Good to hear SMTIV doing well. I love the game but haven't had much time to play it recently. Only 20 hours in so far.

 

[GulAtiCa]

Once Vita drops the price, Tearaway and Killzone is released, and the PS4 comes out the Vita sales are going to go sky high because of remote play. This is just little setback as the Vita is primed to make the biggest comeback ever seen.

Going all in with this prediction I see.

 

[jvm]

So, LTD the Wii U is around just over 1.2mm units in the U.S. Call it 1.25mm just to have an overestimate.

The usual estimate is that the rest of NA is about 10% of U.S. sales. So we add 10% to get 1.375mm units in all of NA.

According to the last report from Nintendo, total Wii U shipments to Americas was 1.58mm units. That means that there are around 200K Wii U units left from those shipments.

If Wii U sales doubled in August and then doubled again in September, they would just barely have exhausted everything they've shipped to the Americas.

 

[Lexxism]

Once Vita drops the price, Tearaway and Killzone is released, and the PS4 comes out the Vita sales are going to go sky high because of remote play. This is just little setback as the Vita is primed to make the biggest comeback ever seen.

Sweeeet. I can't wait for that comeback.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Would that depend on how far above 100k?

I think some people are getting a bit overanxious to announce Wii U's doom. Starting this month, games are being released that may or may not revive the console. I don't see how people wouldn't expect the Wii U to perform the same or worse during the month that they began to market a game that was not going to be released until the following month.

While its cool to discuss the chances on Wii U recovering, using this month's sales numbers as any basis to what may happen for the rest of the year and/or making insane "theoretical" statements like Wii U performing significantly worsen than the Vita last year just seems very silly IMO.

Also, how well the PS4 and XBOX can do this holiday will be hindered to shipments and supply. We don't have enough info to determine how that will be, though it is likely that XBO will have more issues with that than PS4. Time will tell. It is close, so no need to go crazy.

I think the Wii U will do Vita numbers. It's not entirely bad.

I don't see the situation substantially improving long term though. At the pace Nintendo is releasing software, the sales situation will never be healthy.

It's doing far worse than the Gamecube post-launch, and the GC was launched late, with no competitors releasing after it, with a better price, more distinct hardware, and far bigger/better game lineups

The GC had 3rd party games that were clearly superior to the PS2, while the WiiU will have 3rd party games that will be clearly inferior to the PS4, and in some cases inferior by design to the PS3

It's just a really sad situation

 

[Razdek]

Going all in with this prediction I see.

Non-Vita owners don't understand that there are good games in the it. I don't care for the indie games as I find most of them to be crap but having the ability to stream PS4 games and probably PS, PS2 while taking a crap is enticing to me. If Sony would just put half the effort they're putting into the PS4 it would be doing good.

 

[BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO]

Sweeeet. I can't wait for that comeback.

Sarcasm

 

[kswiston]

...and how the fuck is Far Cry 3 still charting? They didn't count Steam sale numbers did they? In terms of retail I think FC3 was half-off on Amazon a couple times this summer but that's it.

I'm more impressed by Battlefield 3. It's almost 2 years old by this point.

did we get a june number for TLOU, was it crazy front loaded? 170k seems pretty dire for its 3rd-8th weeks on sale. i assumed it would've had better word of mouth.

Seems pretty typical for a AAA game this late in the generation.

EDIT:

The Last of Us came out on June 14th. The June reporting period actually covered everything up to Jul 6th, so it had 3 weeks of sales, not 2.

 

[ohlawd]

Good for SMTIV.

4th best game of the year. I hope it has legs so my lord Atlus can stay beastin'.

 

[Petrae]

Once Vita drops the price, Tearaway and Killzone is released, and the PS4 comes out the Vita sales are going to go sky high because of remote play. This is just little setback as the Vita is primed to make the biggest comeback ever seen.

Is it April Fool's Day? I need to check my calendar. It's either that or Ridiculous Delusion Day, which my calendar didn't remind me about.

Vita is toast here in the US. A strictly niche platform with IPs few care about and with a price that makes the competition look like a steal by comparison. The promise of remote play won't have this stunning turnaround effect that some seem to think it will, unless Sony bundles one with PS4 and attempts to shove it down consumers' throats.

At least Nintendo has Nintendo IP to fall back on to try and resurrect the WiiU. Sony doesn't have that for the Vita. Killzone and Tearaway aren't Zelda and Mario Kart.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

did we get a june number for TLOU, was it crazy front loaded? 170k seems pretty dire for its 3rd-8th weeks on sale. i assumed it would've had better word of mouth.

It'll probably pick up in Nov-Dec during the holiday season. It's already established itself as the must-have game of the year, and has crazy good WoM

 

[Blueblur1]

So, LTD the Wii U is around just over 1.2mm units in the U.S. Call it 1.25mm just to have an overestimate.

The usual estimate is that the rest of NA is about 10% of U.S. sales. So we add 10% to get 1.375mm units in all of NA.

According to the last report from Nintendo, total Wii U shipments to Americas was 1.58mm units. That means that there are around 200K Wii U units left from those shipments.

If Wii U sales doubled in August and then doubled again in September, they would just barely have exhausted everything they've shipped to the Americas.

Yikes.