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[Woopah]

I wasn't into these reports back then, so thanks for the clarification. I wonder how these sales get counted. Does NPD have contacts to all the major (and minor?) retailers and get these numbers straight from them? And do they ask permission from MS/Sony/Nintendo if they are allowed to publish them?

NPD has contacts with a certain % of retailers, and then they extrapolate that data to get full numbers for the market as a whole.

Because they are getting the numbers from retaiiers, they don’t need permission to publish them.

What they do need permission for is the digital numbers for software. Most publishers share their digital data with NPD and allow them to include it in their reports. Nintendo and Take Two however do not.

Going back to past NPDs, we used to get actual numbers for hardware and the top 10 software SKUs, which was much more interesting than what we get now.

Here's an example of what we used to get https://www.neogaf.com/threads/offi...-disappointment-if-youre-not-nintendo.296026/

2024 will be a make-or-break year for the Xbox brand.

Agreed, Although I feel they also need a solid holiday 2023 to set them up for success.

 

[Heisenberg007]

2024 will be a make-or-break year for the Xbox brand.

I believe 2022 was that year. And it was more "break" for Xbox than "make" despite a good H1, because of the overwhelmingly bad H2.

The super bad 2023 so far (in terms of HW sales, SW sales, and revenue) is just the consequence of losing that make-or-break 2022 year.

 

[Tsaki]

NPD has contacts with a certain % of retailers, and then they extrapolate that data to get full numbers for the market as a whole.

Because they are getting the numbers from retaiiers, they don’t need permission to publish them.

What they do need permission for is the digital numbers for software. Most publishers share their digital data with NPD and allow them to include it in their reports. Nintendo and Take Two however do not.

Going back to past NPDs, we used to get actual numbers for hardware and the top 10 software SKUs, which was much more interesting than what we get now.

Here's an example of what we used to get https://www.neogaf.com/threads/offi...-disappointment-if-youre-not-nintendo.296026/

Agreed, Although I feel they also need a solid holiday 2023 to set them up for success.

Thanks! How come they stopped releasing the precise numbers they have on hardware and software? Surely more detailed information in their reports about the state of the industry is better for the organization than not including them?

 

[Woopah]

Thanks! How come they stopped releasing the precise numbers they have on hardware and software? Surely more detailed information in their reports about the state of the industry is better for the organization than not including them?

They still include it in their reports, they just moved more data behind the paywall. In terms of data they have more now than ever, they just share less of it for free.

 

[Poltz]

Thanks! How come they stopped releasing the precise numbers they have on hardware and software? Surely more detailed information in their reports about the state of the industry is better for the organization than not including them?

The more you paywall the more you can sell.

 

[Daneel Elijah]

I believe 2022 was that year. And it was more "break" for Xbox than "make" despite a good H1, because of the overwhelmingly bad H2.

The super bad 2023 so far (in terms of HW sales, SW sales, and revenue) is just the consequence of losing that make-or-break 2022 year.

2022 is not what would make them out of business. But in 2024 if they do not have fixed whatever problems they have it would be 3 years of shit output. And Sony would be on it's way to have a parc of consoles 2 ot 3 times bigger than Xbox. Then it get hard to continue unless they find a way out. 2022 was bad. 2023 can be bad too, or better. 2024 has to be good or it will be way too late to be relevant. We would see the Xbox be like the Wii U. Of course we are talking doomsday scenarios here.

 

[Tsaki]

They still include it in their reports, they just moved more data behind the paywall. In terms of data they have more now than ever, they just share less of it for free.

The more you paywall the more you can sell.

Oh shit. So someone could buy the paywall and end years of speculative numbers, from console hardware numbers to software sales per platform holder.

 

[DarkMage619]

2022 is not what would make them out of business. But in 2024 if they do not have fixed whatever problems they have it would be 3 years of shit output. And Sony would be on it's way to have a parc of consoles 2 ot 3 times bigger than Xbox. Then it get hard to continue unless they find a way out. 2022 was bad. 2023 can be bad too, or better. 2024 has to be good or it will be way too late to be relevant. We would see the Xbox be like the Wii U. Of course we are talking doomsday scenarios here.

Can't get more of a doomsday scenario than the original Xbox vs PS2. What was that like 20 million to 150 million? If MS didn't quit then why would they quit now? People have been predicting MS dropping out for decades now and Xbox has lost every single console generation since they started.

 

[Daneel Elijah]

Can't get more of a doomsday scenario than the original Xbox vs PS2. What was that like 20 million to 150 million? If MS didn't quit then why would they quit now? People have been predicting MS dropping out for decades now and Xbox has lost every single console generation since they started.

I agree. Microsoft has been incredibly resilient to losses in the gaming market. That is one of their strengths and is commendable. This generation is well underway now. And I was responding to a discussion that was launched by this:

2024 will be a make-or-break year for the Xbox brand.

I think that you would admit with me that 2024 will be more important for Xbox than 2022 was? As for the doomsday scenario it was a reminder that breaking xbox would need a catastrophic suite of events. The combo needed would have to be never seen before. But at least with Xbox one they found a way to move on with Gamepass. If ( and I said if, this is not a prediction) they have the same drop or worse( I compared it the the Wii U for a reason) then 2024 could be the end. But yeah it is too soon to talk about the end of Xbox. They have put a lot of money recentlu and will buy Activision either this year or the next.

 

[Poltz]

Oh shit. So someone could buy the paywall and end years of speculative numbers, from console hardware numbers to software sales per platform holder.

We already have the Xbox vs PS sales in the US for Jan 2022 to Nov 2022 due to a leak.

 

[Woopah]

Oh shit. So someone could buy the paywall and end years of speculative numbers, from console hardware numbers to software sales per platform holder.

Correct, and those leaks do happen!

 

[mckmas8808]

I think that you would admit with me that 2024 will be more important for Xbox than 2022 was? As for the doomsday scenario it was a reminder that breaking xbox would need a catastrophic suite of events. The combo needed would have to be never seen before. But at least with Xbox one they found a way to move on with Gamepass. If ( and I said if, this is not a prediction) they have the same drop or worse( I compared it the the Wii U for a reason) then 2024 could be the end. But yeah it is too soon to talk about the end of Xbox. They have put a lot of money recentlu and will buy Activision either this year or the next.

Oh 100%. 2024 is an all hands on deck "WE BACK BABY" year for Xbox at a minimum. It has to be that. If they can't recover in 2024, it would be the world has chosen to turn its back on the Xbox brand.

 

[jroc74]

2024 will be a make-or-break year for the Xbox brand.

Kinda wild...but some of said this about 2023.

Shieeeet.

 

[DarkMage619]

I'll judge any console by its status at the end of the generation. What games came out and how did those games rate? No one would have judged the PS3 based on its launch or how it did in the middle of the generation. If the series consoles do not have better games and more success than last generation then you can consider it a failure. Still don't see MS dropping consoles when they did not after the original.

 

[Daneel Elijah]

I'll judge any console by its status at the end of the generation. What games came out and how did those games rate? No one would have judged the PS3 based on its launch or how it did in the middle of the generation. If the series consoles do not have better games and more success than last generation then you can consider it a failure. Still don't see MS dropping consoles when they did not after the original.

Absolutely. And even then the Wii U games proves that if the games are good you can just remaster them all in the next generation if you want. And the kinect proves that you can boost a console mid life. The Gameboy got a new life from Pokemon too. Microsoft is not going to abandon the marker so soon after buying Activision too.

It does not means that MS quitting the market is not a possibility. We are once again talking doomsday scenarios there. If they fail to give us good games and continue to be mediocre they are doomed. Their best gen was the 360. They have been hemoraging market share ever since. They choose to compete frontally with Sony instead of going their own way and this is part of their problems. Remember that when they began they had to pay studios to port games like GTA and MGS to the OG Xbox. If they go below a certain threshold this will happen again. And with AAA getting harder and harder to make it will be harder and harder to stay competitive. Buying studios works but only to a certain point. So wait and see but their prospects are dim unless their studios get better soon. Starfield will help. But they will need a few hits like that to maintain enough goodwill to go a new generation with a chance to be seen as equals to Sony again. The risk of loosing trust is that people may just wait for the next playstation and that would doom them. But they will have a few hits and that should be enough to push them in the next generation. Hopefully. We need the competition.

 

[onQ123]

Absolutely. And even then the Wii U games proves that if the games are good you can just remaster them all in the next generation if you want. And the kinect proves that you can boost a console mid life. The Gameboy got a new life from Pokemon too. Microsoft is not going to abandon the marker so soon after buying Activision too.

It does not means that MS quitting the market is not a possibility. We are once again talking doomsday scenarios there. If they fail to give us good games and continue to be mediocre they are doomed. Their best gen was the 360. They have been hemoraging market share ever since. They choose to compete frontally with Sony instead of going their own way and this is part of their problems. Remember that when they began they had to pay studios to port games like GTA and MGS to the OG Xbox. If they go below a certain threshold this will happen again. And with AAA getting harder and harder to make it will be harder and harder to stay competitive. Buying studios works but only to a certain point. So wait and see but their prospects are dim unless their studios get better soon. Starfield will help. But they will need a few hits like that to maintain enough goodwill to go a new generation with a chance to be seen as equals to Sony again. The risk of loosing trust is that people may just wait for the next playstation and that would doom them. But they will have a few hits and that should be enough to push them in the next generation. Hopefully. We need the competition.

Buying Activision actually lesson their need for Xbox consoles because they have software that will sell anywhere. But even with Xbox Consoles not selling much hardware or software I think they will continue to make new consoles because they will always need a base hardware for the games they will be making & a level of hardware to base the servers on.

 

[Daneel Elijah]

Buying Activision actually lesson their need for Xbox consoles because they have software that will sell anywhere. But even with Xbox Consoles not selling much hardware or software I think they will continue to make new consoles because they will always need a base hardware for the games they will be making & a level of hardware to base the servers on.

Of course. But this is not about Microsoft quitting this year. This is about Microsoft quitting in the future. It needs a doomsday scenarii where all the games they out to market fail in some fashion and Sony acquiring a sizable monopoly by a very ckear margin. Like IOS and Android. Microsoft had their chance to compete and failed. They abandonned then because they knew that the lead was impossible to fight back against. Activision will give revenue to Microsoft. And a reprieve. Zenimax did the same. But those games go to PC too.

To make you see it another way, what do Microsoft have that Tencent or Apple do not have ? The Xbox brand. Not the games, those will come if the console is good, and Tencent is good there. Not the reputation, Apple have a very good one outside of their prices. That brand is weakening. And if a certain threshold is set they will found themselves doomed to irrelevance even if their products are equal or better than Sony. This is not a prediction, just a reflexion if some of their initiatives( all the studios they have now, ABK...) fail to work out this year and the next. And again, I am talking doomsday scenario. Where(IF) all of their games fail 2 or 3 years in a row. At that point their relevance will be put in question I hope.

The need for consoles is not just about the money they make. But also and mostly the money they allow their partners to make. A goos platform allow to more easily touch new customers or to make them more ready to pay. Sony PS5 and Ninendo Switch show that. In the 360 and or Xbox one( forgot wich one it was) the xbox has more sales of games/ mtx... per person than their competition. I do not know if this is still the case now. As I said earlier, even one game like Pokemon can be enough to give them a push. But they need that game. And with their 2020 showcase having a majority of games that have yet to materialise we can have at least doubt that some of them are in trouble. Hi fi Rush proves that they can stealth drop games, so this is in their favor.

 

[Ronin_7]

NPD is back today apparently with March data.

 

[Tsaki]

We already have the Xbox vs PS sales in the US for Jan 2022 to Nov 2022 due to a leak.

Correct, and those leaks do happen!

So if someone gets access to this information, do they see everything, present and past? Or is it tiered and they have to pay more for every month/year they want to access? The 2022 leak was great, but what about 2021, 2020 etc? (I sound way too greedy reading this back )

 

[Woopah]

So if someone gets access to this information, do they see everything, present and past? Or is it tiered and they have to pay more for every month/year they want to access? The 2022 leak was great, but what about 2021, 2020 etc? (I sound way too greedy reading this back )

I think they would only get access to present data but I'm not completely sure about that.

Generally it is companies and not individuals who get access. Would be really cool to have a GAF account though!

 

[Heisenberg007]

I think they would only get access to present data but I'm not completely sure about that.

Generally it is companies and not individuals who get access. Would be really cool to have a GAF account though!

Yep. Even contribution from forum members would be okay -- depending on how expensive it is. And GAF can then post exclusive data regularly (assuming it's allowed to do so), will be good for traffic.

 

[yazenov]

Good idea. I think Sony and Nintendo fans would love to see more data and fork some cash to contribute.

However, I feel like the Xbox fans would not like to participate in this for obvious reasons.

 

[GMCamaro]

Cicada loud noises outside my window #1

 

[Woopah]

Yep. Even contribution from forum members would be okay -- depending on how expensive it is. And GAF can then post exclusive data regularly (assuming it's allowed to do so), will be good for traffic.

Good idea. I think Sony and Nintendo fans would love to see more data and fork some cash to contribute.

However, I feel like the Xbox fans would not like to participate in this for obvious reasons.

I would definitely be interested! Unfortunately I'm pretty sure one of the conditions of getting the data is that you can't share it publicly.

 

[Heisenberg007]

NPD is back today apparently with March data.

 

[mckmas8808]

Yep. Even contribution from forum members would be okay -- depending on how expensive it is. And GAF can then post exclusive data regularly (assuming it's allowed to do so), will be good for traffic.

I'd be down for tossing in $5 a month if a GAF account could be set up to get this data.

 

[demigod]

I'd be down for tossing in $5 a month if a GAF account could be set up to get this data.

It’s private data. NPD ninjas will go after you.

 

[jm89]

It’s private data. NPD ninjas will go after you.

Yup. They even made aquamarine remove her posts from gaf for the leaked data.