He's getting record numbers of the white vote in these polls.
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CNN/ORC Poll: Trump 44%, Clinton 39%, Johnson 9%, Stein 3%
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He's getting record numbers of the white vote in these polls.
He's actually getting a larger portion of hispanics than Romney did(Still a small portion). Which is kinda insane.
David H Wong
Banned
Well the chances of an electoral/general split are pretty small, it's only happened a couple of times and only by the narrowest of margins. If Trump is ahead by 5 there's almost no chance Hillary is still poised to win the EC.
If people think it's weird that the conventions turn 5% of the voters' minds, it's not actually the conventions (it has nothing to do with how the conventions go, or how good the speeches are). It's just that this is the official end of the primary season and when most people START paying attention to the race.
Prior to the conventions not even 20% of the electorate reads about the race every day. So support starts consolidating around the candidate because all of the people who weren't really watching before kind of tune in and pick somebody.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Convention bounces are mostly temporary and rarely represent shifts in fundamentals (see a discussion of this in Vavreck and Sides - The Gamble) -- but the more troubling thing for Democrats is that Hillary seemed to suffer fundamental erosion heading into the RNC from the emails report. This is what's driving downward revision of statistical predictions. I guess we'll see.
White Hispanics basically vote as white and do not identify with any Latino politics issues. the polling you're referring to is probably driven by a growth in white Hispanics as a proportion of all Hispanics rather than a shift in opinion. But also the shift is ~1% which is within MOE.
White Hispanics basically vote as white and do not identify with any Latino politics issues. the polling you're referring to is probably driven by a growth in white Hispanics as a proportion of all Hispanics rather than a shift in opinion. But also the shift is ~1% which is within MOE.
One is a career politician and the other is a once in a life time candidate.
How do you beat that.
(Arguably Bernie was also a once in a lifetime candidate)
David H Wong
Banned
There's a segment of Hispanic voters who are heavily religious and vote on issues like abortion and gay marriage, and in fact many of them are anti-immigration. It's easy to forget that this used to be a reliable Republican voting block until the 90s or so (especially Cuban immigrants who had escaped Castro).
You know who also used to vote Republican? Muslims. Things have changed.
Ironically Regan and H. Bush were actually pro amnesty in their campaigns, so hispanics leaning toward them makes sense.
Hispanics leaning toward Trump... Eh, all the people on the dominican side of my family are solidly anti-Trump so I guess I take that for granted.
DeviantBoi
Member
There's no money in landslide electionS.
They will always paint the election as being close. One day Trump will be up. The next it will be Clinton. And so and so until Election Day.
Have faith that America will do the right thing in the end. Just don't be complacent and think that you don't have to vote because other people will. That's how you end up with Trump.
They will always paint the election as being close. One day Trump will be up. The next it will be Clinton. And so and so until Election Day.
Have faith that America will do the right thing in the end. Just don't be complacent and think that you don't have to vote because other people will. That's how you end up with Trump.
Lord Frieza
Member
EDIT: Nevermind, I misread that post.
I'd be more inclined to believe the people supporting the third party candidates are low information voters who say they'll vote third party without actually knowing any of the issues because it isn't "the establishment."
boiled goose
good with gravy
People voting third party are not low information. In fact the opposite.
Keep thinking that and you miss the fundamental reasons why people don't like the two big parties.
My apologies. I should have prefaced it with "some." Ive heard too many interviews, and too many political threads on here where people will spout off Jill Stein without knowing her positions or her qualifications (she isn't).
I would bet every dollar I own the vast majority of people voting Johnson in these polls have zero idea on his policies.
Pushing through the market square
so many mothers sighing
News had just come over,
we had five years left to cry in
News guy wept and told us
Earth was really dying
Cried so much his face was wet
then I knew he was not lying
Link
The Autumn Wind
Yep. I'd make that same bet and even throw Jill Stein into the mix.
Vampirolol
Member
Trump reminds me a lot of Berlusconi, he embodies the quote "There's no such thing as bad publicity". Everyone talks about him, what he says, what he does. When speaking, people tend to say that he shouldn't even be there.
But then people go home, they are alone and suddendly all those racist things, those silly dreams about becoming rich, the nostalgia for a "Great" America, all those lies are still inside them. They look at Clinton and think "well, this is more of the same", it's soo politically correct, sooo for minorities. Then they look at Trump and think: "Hey that guy is funny, I mean he's wrong but he's got that wit. He's also something new, an "outsider", he may finally give me the chance to be a little racist. Oh wait I didn't mean that, I'm not racist. But he's honest. He is the change. And people are following him so there must be a reason. I mean look at the people who follow him, they are aggressive and strong, those democrats instead are so boring. Maybe this one time I could..."
But then people go home, they are alone and suddendly all those racist things, those silly dreams about becoming rich, the nostalgia for a "Great" America, all those lies are still inside them. They look at Clinton and think "well, this is more of the same", it's soo politically correct, sooo for minorities. Then they look at Trump and think: "Hey that guy is funny, I mean he's wrong but he's got that wit. He's also something new, an "outsider", he may finally give me the chance to be a little racist. Oh wait I didn't mean that, I'm not racist. But he's honest. He is the change. And people are following him so there must be a reason. I mean look at the people who follow him, they are aggressive and strong, those democrats instead are so boring. Maybe this one time I could..."
EatinOlives
Member
Exactly. He's the political guilty pleasure. It's all these people's chances to do the equivalent of making that one little racist comment under their breath just as catharsis
Policy, nuance, service, record, none of these matter. Trump's a cheat meal, and when you're on one you don't stop and think about the garbage you're about to put inside your mouth.
neurosisxeno
Member
Oversampling Independents. Nice. Also thinking they oversampled White Men judging by these results.
Horse race!
Lan Dong Mik
And why would I want them?
Come on, don't bullshit me
Laughing Banana
Weeping Pickle
But you can also view this as those that vote for Johnson are more acutely aware about the policies of either Republican and Democrats and that the decision to vote Johnson is precisely due because they know how those two parties have failed them.
I know the Brexit comparison has been made a million times but...
I really hope you guys in the US don't have to suffer this feeling of your country making a monumentally stupid decision and knowing you didn't do all you could have to prevent it, because you thought it would never happen.
Don't take it for granted Hillary will beat him. Vote, get everyone you know to vote, campaign, join GOTV programmes, whatever.
I really hope you guys in the US don't have to suffer this feeling of your country making a monumentally stupid decision and knowing you didn't do all you could have to prevent it, because you thought it would never happen.
Don't take it for granted Hillary will beat him. Vote, get everyone you know to vote, campaign, join GOTV programmes, whatever.
A lot of polls will be doing something similar to that in this election including some of the really pro clinton polls. I think the actual result on november 8th will be a few percentage points off from the polls at this point.A lot of these polls will fail to capture certain demographs accurately like hispanics in this cycle.
CrankyKong
Member
I'm sorry for my dishonourable comments earlier in this thread.
I let my emotions and issues with Clinton cloud the reality that Trump is an awful, awful person and should not be inflicted upon anyone.
I let my emotions and issues with Clinton cloud the reality that Trump is an awful, awful person and should not be inflicted upon anyone.
the_batman
Banned
fucking idiots voting for reality stars. give me a fucking break, jesus.
FWIW, Trump is objectively a clear improvement over my country's prime minister.
Which country do you live in? Mordor?
Malaysia.
SporeCrawler
Member
Trump is still winning?
Polls are showing Hillary leading.
Is it 2012 again? How can pollsters still be committing the same mistakes?
MassiveNights
Banned
Agree
There should be a polls thread that either has a neutral title or is updated regularly by someone willing to take up the task.
Angelus Errare
Banned
This too will be outdated in a week's time if not days.
People who feel the need to follow every poll should simply join the PoliGAF thread. That's what it's there for -- following politicial developments that don't rise to the standard of news.
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