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[IAmAnAgnostic]

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but here is the current polling average according to realclearpolitics.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

 

[Korey]

At what point do we stop pretending that things are fine and that we need to wait until ________ for real poll results?

 

[IAmAnAgnostic]

At what point do we stop pretending that things are fine and that we need to wait until ________ for real poll results?

After the democratic convention, if Trump is still in the lead. (assuming you want Trump to lose)

 

[Korey]

After the democratic convention, if Trump is still in the lead. (assuming you want Trump to lose)

How many days after the convention? The day after? 3 days? Why not today's?

 

[balladofwindfishes]

At what point do we stop pretending that things are fine and that we need to wait until ________ for real poll results?

We have a long history of polling to know that right now is probably the most inaccurate period of polling for the entire election year.

How many days after the convention? The day after? 3 days? Why not today's?

You'll know when it's settling because the polls won't rapidly change week to week.

 

[IAmAnAgnostic]

How many days after the convention? The day after? 3 days? Why not today's?

When polls are released that cover the dates of the entire convention.

 

[ElFly]

It could also be said that all the major humps are now likely behind for Clinton, whereas there is still a truckton of skeletons waiting in line in the closet for Trump:

- Trump U lawsuit
- Trump rape accusations (a 3rd one just came out)
- Trump lawsuits that were settled on/ lost, including hiring illegal polish workers
- Trump taxes
- Racially charged behaviors/ business activities (housing/ hiring discrimination...)
- Using bankrupcy/ defaulting on paying contractors and others providers, bullying smaller companies all the way into closing in some cases
- Long history of misoginy, the latest example in defending Roger Ailes from Fox News Corp.

The guy has been involved in more than 4000 lawsuits.

... and now a possible involvement of Russia in the election to favor him

And all that not counting the treasure chest of his public declarations, ranging from pure xenophobia (e.g. the Judge of hispanic decent) to international security insanity (letting Nato allies fend for themselves).

All those things except the Russian involvement are already known and played cards.

 

[GoldenEye 007]

All those things except the Russian involvement are already known and played cards.

None of those have been played on a general election level and to be honest were brought up a bit too late in the primary race. Trump U and the issues with higher education as a whole should be an easy line of attack. The Russia connection should be interesting, though.

And if that is true, why wouldn't that apply to Clinton and Benghazi or emails given they've been beaten to hell at this point?

 

[Elandyll]

All those things except the Russian involvement are already known and played cards.

But all those things (and more) are actually on going for Trump, which is my point, contrarily to the Clinton stuff (unless somehow Wikileaks/ Russia comes up with new stuff).

 

[IAmAnAgnostic]

And if that is true, why wouldn't that apply to Clinton and Benghazi or emails given they've been beaten to hell at this point?

Benghazi yes, but the Wikileaks email are new. (and supposedly there will be more at some point)

 

[Blader]

How many days after the convention? The day after? 3 days? Why not today's?

Mid to late August is when we should see the dust clear.

There's too much noise during, and especially between, conventions to get reliable poll results.

 

[Ithil]

All those things except the Russian involvement are already known and played cards.

No they are not. For instance the University lawsuit has not come to a head yet, all they can mention is there's an ongoing lawsuit, it's still several months away.

 

[Torokil]

At what point do we stop pretending that things are fine and that we need to wait until ________ for real poll results?

If Trump is leading after the DNC, you should be worried.

If Trump is leading after labor day, you should be really worried.

Right now, you shouldn't be worried.

 

[GoldenEye 007]

Benghazi yes, but the Wikileaks email are new. (and supposedly there will be more at some point)

Unless they have something proving Clinton coordinated something. But the narrative that they rigged the election was false anyway given they were sent when the primary race was already over.

 

[Coffinhal]

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but here is the current polling average according to realclearpolitics.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

He clearly has a momentum since a few days but it doesn't mean anything more than this.

People should stop commenting every poll without looking at the big picture or in the little details (besides the general %). But it would prevent them from shitposting, so...

 

[water_wendi]

Unless they have something proving Clinton coordinated something. But the narrative that they rigged the election was false anyway given they were sent when the primary race was already over.

What happens if Wikileaks doctors an email or makes up one entirely?

 

[jay]

All this righteous outrage at people thinking there is comedy in a Trump victory. Half the country wanting him to be president is the outrage, not a few people chuckling at how stupid the situation is.

 

[mackattk]

It could also be said that all the major humps are now likely behind for Clinton, whereas there is still a truckton of skeletons waiting in line in the closet for Trump:

- Trump U lawsuit
- Trump rape accusations (a 3rd one just came out)
- Trump lawsuits that were settled on/ lost, including hiring illegal polish workers
- Trump taxes
- Racially charged behaviors/ business activities (housing/ hiring discrimination...)
- Using bankrupcy/ defaulting on paying contractors and others providers, bullying smaller companies all the way into closing in some cases
- Long history of misoginy, the latest example in defending Roger Ailes from Fox News Corp.

The guy has been involved in more than 4000 lawsuits.

... and now a possible involvement of Russia in the election to favor him

And all that not counting the treasure chest of his public declarations, ranging from pure xenophobia (e.g. the Judge of hispanic decent) to international security insanity (letting Nato allies fend for themselves).

All this is basically known already. None of the Trump supporters care.

 

[Fluffhead14]

bunch of bed wetters in here.

 

[The Albatross]

At what point do we stop pretending that things are fine and that we need to wait until ________ for real poll results?

At what point do alarmists like you realize that those who aren't worried aren't "pretending."

Maybe you're worried, which is fine. Go stand on a building and yell from the rooftops how worried you are. But I'm waiting until after both conventions settle before getting worried. Of course, I'd still love that +8 Hillary lead right now, but it's not there.

I think what's most perplexing for the people who are really worried on Gaf is that in the echo chamber of the RNC thread, you had 98% of posts saying "Worst convention ever! What a shit show! What a failure! This is horrible for Trump! Horrible for Republicans! Terrible speech, worst ever, he's done!" So everybody comes out feeling really good about themselves, patting themselves on the back, and congratulating each other for all reaching the same group-think opinion. And then when people get brief glimpses to the world outside their own echo chamber, they're at a loss for how to rectify their perception of the truth and the actual truth. The actual truth is that Trump's doom and gloom speech resonated with a lot of people who aren't just extreme right racist crazies (because if it only resonated with them, then there wouldnt have been a bump: they're voting for Trump already), Cruz' "vote your conscience" bolstered Trump despite NeoGaf saying "This is the end of Trump," and the raucus second day where the dirty laundry of a voice vote on party rules got defeated gave Trump momentum despite that the prevailing opinion here was that it was "chaos" and "a party revolt against Trump." This isn't just a NeoGaf phenomenon, it's an internet echo chamber phenomenon. We self select to be around people who agree with us, social media algorithms filter news and content so that it's agreeable to us, and platforms like Google Now deliver us news that is agreeable to us. We convince ourselves that everybody who disagrees is the "other," crazy, racist, sexist, mad, but if that were true, then there could be no convention bump for Trump, so it's not true.

And this also causes us to worry that there will be no convention bump for Hillary because we're surrounded by people who agree with us, who are likely already voting for Clinton, and so it can't change anything. But, at the end of 4 or 5 days, let's take a step back and take a look.

Doesn't mean you can't feel worried, you have every right to feel however you want, but stop implying that it's the people who are worried who are deluded or "pretending" about anything.

 

[3rdman]

At what point do we stop pretending that things are fine and that we need to wait until ________ for real poll results?

You can always tell who here is kinda new to the elections...The Trump lead you see now was expected. You can also expect these numbers to be reversed by the end of week and the DMC.

I wouldn't even look at polls until at least after the first debate.

 

[RustyNails]

Sanders supporter just said this on TV.

This is Ra's Al Ghul/League of Shadows level of villainy. They want to burn America down so they can rebuild it.

"When a forest grows too wild, a purging fire is inevitable" - Ra's

 

[Plumbob]

bunch of bed wetters in here.

Bowel evacuation is an evolutionary adaptation you know. It helped the species survive.

 

[Elandyll]

All this is basically known already. None of the Trump supporters care.

As I already said, tons of that stuff hasn't actually produced yet, as it is on-going.

This also is the kind of stuff that hasn't really hit the mainstream yet, as they seem to be walking on eggshells with Trump:

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/10619944.html

Edit: to be clear, I'm not saying the Trump harcores will be swayed by -anything-. He said himself he could literally be filmed killing someone and they would still vote for him.
The battle is, as usual, for the undecided/ independants.

 

[chubigans]

Article hitting some of my points just popped up.

http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-25/democratic-machine-chose-clinton-long-ago-but-why

That was a great article. Pretty much agreed on all points.

 

[HylianTom]

bunch of bed wetters in here.

Ice in my veins.

Typically the convention bounce is one of a candidate's best chances for a polling high point. If this is some of the best that Trump can achieve, that doesn't bode well for him.

And I may be confident, but I also don't deny that this will take grueling campaign work. But I like where the fundamentals for this race are. Had the GOP nominated someone sane (especially someone whose "Could Never Support" numbers weren't outpacing Hillary's), I might not feel the same way.

 

[Azzanadra]

This is Ra's Al Ghul/League of Shadows level of villainy. They want to burn America down so they can rebuild it.

"When a forest grows too wild, a purging fire is inevitable" - Ra's

Yeah that whole "acceleration" idea seems doomed to fail, instead you get a laim duck president who will embarrass America on the national stage whilst getting nothing done in office due to the state of Congress.... all the while empowering hate groups.

The only good thing that may come out of a Trump presidency has nothing to do with Trump himself, its that maybe Democrats will go to midterms in droves and after 4 years of agony, we get a Democrat president and congress. This is not a chance I am willing to take though.

 

[HylianTom]

Yeah that whole "acceleration" idea seems doomed to fail, instead you get a laim duck president who will embarrass America on the national stage whilst getting nothing done in office due to the state of Congress.... all the while empowering hate groups.

The only good thing that may come out of a Trump presidency has nothing to do with Trump himself, its that maybe Democrats will go to midterms in droves and after 4 years of agony, we get a Democrat president and congress. This is not a chance I am willing to take though.

Me neither.

The Senate midterm map for 2018 is absolutely brutal. The Dems will be defending a ton of seats, some in unfriendly terrain. The GOP doesn't have many seats where pickups can happen.

If Trump wins, there's a decent chance that the GOP will hold the House, Senate, and White House from 2017 to 2019. And the Supreme Court for a few more decades.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

Me neither.

The Senate midterm map for 2018 is absolutely brutal. The Dems will be defending a ton of seats, and in unfriendly terrain. The GOP doesn't have many seats where pickups can happen.

Yup. Will the 2018 congress redraw the maps or the 2020 congress? Depending on how a Clinton presidency goes, 2020 might also be a bloodbath for Democrats, but probably not as bad as 2018 will be.

If Trump wins, there's a decent chance that the GOP will hold the House, Senate, and White House from 2017 to 2019. And the Supreme Court for a few more decades.

I think 2018 might be brutal for Trump if he wins, though. At least in the house.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

The map is redrawn in 2020, although depending on Hillary's SC picks, it's possible redistricting will be changed substantially.

 

[FuturusX]

bunch of bed wetters in here.

I wet my bed when I was lad...I felt great shame. Thanks for the memories.

 

[Dr. Feel Good]

At what point do alarmists like you realize that those who aren't worried aren't "pretending."

Maybe you're worried, which is fine. Go stand on a building and yell from the rooftops how worried you are. But I'm waiting until after both conventions settle before getting worried. Of course, I'd still love that +8 Hillary lead right now, but it's not there.

I think what's most perplexing for the people who are really worried on Gaf is that in the echo chamber of the RNC thread, you had 98% of posts saying "Worst convention ever! What a shit show! What a failure! This is horrible for Trump! Horrible for Republicans! Terrible speech, worst ever, he's done!" So everybody comes out feeling really good about themselves, patting themselves on the back, and congratulating each other for all reaching the same group-think opinion. And then when people get brief glimpses to the world outside their own echo chamber, they're at a loss for how to rectify their perception of the truth and the actual truth. The actual truth is that Trump's doom and gloom speech resonated with a lot of people who aren't just extreme right racist crazies (because if it only resonated with them, then there wouldnt have been a bump: they're voting for Trump already), Cruz' "vote your conscience" bolstered Trump despite NeoGaf saying "This is the end of Trump," and the raucus second day where the dirty laundry of a voice vote on party rules got defeated gave Trump momentum despite that the prevailing opinion here was that it was "chaos" and "a party revolt against Trump." This isn't just a NeoGaf phenomenon, it's an internet echo chamber phenomenon. We self select to be around people who agree with us, social media algorithms filter news and content so that it's agreeable to us, and platforms like Google Now deliver us news that is agreeable to us. We convince ourselves that everybody who disagrees is the "other," crazy, racist, sexist, mad, but if that were true, then there could be no convention bump for Trump, so it's not true.

And this also causes us to worry that there will be no convention bump for Hillary because we're surrounded by people who agree with us, who are likely already voting for Clinton, and so it can't change anything. But, at the end of 4 or 5 days, let's take a step back and take a look.

Doesn't mean you can't feel worried, you have every right to feel however you want, but stop implying that it's the people who are worried who are deluded or "pretending" about anything.

The NeoGAF community has a long history of not understanding the realities of the outside world. We're talking about the same group of people who claimed the VitaTV was the end of the 3DS and Nintendo handhelds.

 

[A Link to the Past]

We're talking about the same group of people who claimed the VitaTV was the end of the 3DS and Nintendo handhelds.

Wait what

 

[EatinOlives]

The NeoGAF community has a long history of not understanding the realities of the outside world. We're talking about the same group of people who claimed the VitaTV was the end of the 3DS and Nintendo handhelds.

NeoGAF is enormous. You're talking about a fringe group on gaming side having one ill-informed opinion, and that somehow translates to the political consensus in a different sub-forum?

I'm sure it sounded a lot more clever in your head.

 

[PopeReal]

No reason to panic. Go out and vote for Clinton. Encourage your friends to register and vote for her as well.

 

[Brinbe]

Jesus Christ, is this some people's first election? Refuckinglax. Wait till mid August or better yet, after labor day.

and if the thought of Trump winning scares the shit out of you, get the fuck out right now and volunteer and work your ass off to elect Hillary.

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

Learn from Brexit. Get out and vote. I'm sorry that 51% of our country is so short sighted.

 

[LosDaddie]

Article hitting some of my points just popped up.

http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-25/democratic-machine-chose-clinton-long-ago-but-why

Fantastic article sure not to be read by many.

 

[Lovely Salsa]

How the fuck is Trump even in this?

Dont 80%+ of the minorities vote democrat? And they make a big chunk of US population

It blows my mind that Trump still has a shot

 

[bangbang i'm a timpani]

How the fuck is Trump even in this?

Dont 80%+ of the minorities vote democrat? And they make a big chunk of US population

It blows my mind that Trump still has a shot

he has memes. clinton has no memes.

 

[TheFatOne]

How many days after the convention? The day after? 3 days? Why not today's?

Like two weeks or so after the convention. Polls are noisy around this time for obvious reasons.Essentially each party is going to get a boost and drop around this time because of conventions. Which makes the polls noisy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/23/u...type=sectionfront&smid=tw-upshotnyt&smtyp=cur

 

[BrahReally]

Don't worry. We had faith your country would do the right thing. And you did. You passed Brexit.

Have faith we'll do the right thing. Trump will win with 51% if he needs to. But have faith in us.

We'll not only make "America great again!", we'll "Make the Earth great again."

LETS GO (ﾉ◕ヮ&#9685ﾉ*:･ﾟ✧ ✧ﾟ･: *ヽ(◕ヮ◕&#12541

(ﾉ◕ヮ&#9685ﾉ In the name of Donald of the House Trump ヽ(◕ヮ◕&#12541 , First of his name, rightful President of the States. Lord of the 2 political parties, (ﾉ◕ヮ&#9685ﾉ Protector of the Border.ヽ(◕ヮ◕&#12541

 

[dapperbandit]

he has memes. clinton has no memes.

This is not as silly as it sounds.

 

[Angelus Errare]

It could also be said that all the major humps are now likely behind for Clinton, whereas there is still a truckton of skeletons waiting in line in the closet for Trump:

- Trump U lawsuit
- Trump rape accusations (a 3rd one just came out)
- Trump lawsuits that were settled on/ lost, including hiring illegal polish workers
- Trump taxes
- Racially charged behaviors/ business activities (housing/ hiring discrimination...)
- Using bankrupcy/ defaulting on paying contractors and others providers, bullying smaller companies all the way into closing in some cases
- Long history of misoginy, the latest example in defending Roger Ailes from Fox News Corp.

The guy has been involved in more than 4000 lawsuits.

... and now a possible involvement of Russia in the election to favor him

And all that not counting the treasure chest of his public declarations, ranging from pure xenophobia (e.g. the Judge of hispanic decent) to international security insanity (letting Nato allies fend for themselves).

These are all positives to Trump supporters.

Trump U lawsuit

It just means America's position on education is messed! Trump U was trying to fix that and people didn't want it!

Trump rape accusations (a 3rd one just came out)

Only proves that women need to be protected. Wasn't even his fault tbh.

Racially charged behaviors/ business activities (housing/ hiring discrimination...)

Free market, if they're discriminating then people will take their business elsewhere.

Trump lawsuits that were settled on/ lost, including hiring illegal polish workers

See he's all about employing people, he even hired illegals! Job creator!

Using bankrupcy/ defaulting on paying contractors and others providers, bullying smaller companies all the way into closing in some cases

Which is why he's the best to fix da system! Crooked hillary never would! She just cares about money! Trump cares about people!

- Long history of misoginy, the latest example in defending Roger Ailes from Fox News Corp.

Society today has ruined women and now they falsely accuse people!

and now a possible involvement of Russia in the election to favor him

He won't let Russia bully us because he promised!

 

[GurgleBot20]

These are all positives to Trump supporters.

Trump supporters aren't the ones who are going to decide this election.

 

[E92 M3]

At what point do alarmists like you realize that those who aren't worried aren't "pretending."

Maybe you're worried, which is fine. Go stand on a building and yell from the rooftops how worried you are. But I'm waiting until after both conventions settle before getting worried. Of course, I'd still love that +8 Hillary lead right now, but it's not there.

I think what's most perplexing for the people who are really worried on Gaf is that in the echo chamber of the RNC thread, you had 98% of posts saying "Worst convention ever! What a shit show! What a failure! This is horrible for Trump! Horrible for Republicans! Terrible speech, worst ever, he's done!" So everybody comes out feeling really good about themselves, patting themselves on the back, and congratulating each other for all reaching the same group-think opinion. And then when people get brief glimpses to the world outside their own echo chamber, they're at a loss for how to rectify their perception of the truth and the actual truth. The actual truth is that Trump's doom and gloom speech resonated with a lot of people who aren't just extreme right racist crazies (because if it only resonated with them, then there wouldnt have been a bump: they're voting for Trump already), Cruz' "vote your conscience" bolstered Trump despite NeoGaf saying "This is the end of Trump," and the raucus second day where the dirty laundry of a voice vote on party rules got defeated gave Trump momentum despite that the prevailing opinion here was that it was "chaos" and "a party revolt against Trump." This isn't just a NeoGaf phenomenon, it's an internet echo chamber phenomenon. We self select to be around people who agree with us, social media algorithms filter news and content so that it's agreeable to us, and platforms like Google Now deliver us news that is agreeable to us. We convince ourselves that everybody who disagrees is the "other," crazy, racist, sexist, mad, but if that were true, then there could be no convention bump for Trump, so it's not true.

And this also causes us to worry that there will be no convention bump for Hillary because we're surrounded by people who agree with us, who are likely already voting for Clinton, and so it can't change anything. But, at the end of 4 or 5 days, let's take a step back and take a look.

Doesn't mean you can't feel worried, you have every right to feel however you want, but stop implying that it's the people who are worried who are deluded or "pretending" about anything.

This is an excellent post.

 

[KRod-57]

elector college should be the focus of these polls

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Blows my mind that 53% of the country (Trump + Johnson) are down to dismantle any semblance of regulations on the free market.

 

[Ihyll]

I've said it before but nothing sticks to the guy whereas everything sticks to Clinton.

 

[teh_pwn]

Gary Johnson at 9% and Stein at 3%?

is this the highest other parties have been in these polls?

They've been increasing, especially Johnson. Really it shouldn't be surprising because there are a ton of people that just hate Hillary, and it overlaps a lot with older voters that think Trump lacks decency. While the Libertarian party can be a bit extreme compared to the norm, Johnson is a pretty moderate Libertarian - for example he said in an interview he'd aim to cut military spending by 20% as the Pentagon advised because he's running for President and these things have to go through Congress instead of a literal Libertarian position axing the majority of military spending overseas.