I haven't been trying to hide in the background. With it being the first day there have been times where I don't have a lot to say or just haven't been at a computer or phone to comment on stuff. That's all I have to say on this for now, I just wanted to talk about that point.
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Election 2016 [Mafia] | Everlasting GOPstoppers
- Thread starter Ourobolus
- Start date
- Status
I haven't been trying to hide in the background. With it being the first day there have been times where I don't have a lot to say or just haven't been at a computer or phone to comment on stuff. That's all I have to say on this for now, I just wanted to talk about that point.
The opening post has an example PM for an ordinary townie, Ouro put a blank in that example so it's fairly obvious that everyone got a name. My assumption was that Ted Cruz is a name that people recognize and anyone recognizable would be a PR. The schmucks that no one recognizes unless they are into politics are the Losers or vanilla townies. The scum are also the electorate not specific people so if you are thinking I said something based on my role PM then you are outing me more as a PR than scum.
I believe El Topo has already proved that he plays more with his gut and emotions than with logic.
Read the thread man, day phase ends tomorrow now.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
I'd like him to explain to me what's going on here. Looks like I'll be waiting a bit.
Bananaspaceprincess
Neo Member
Wow, what an effect such a little snow can have. I was actually trying to list my thoughts when it hit us and now I have to think again. It is still impossible for me to read scum like behavior in D1 posts so I tried to make a list with players I felt being trustworthy instead.
I strongly felt and still feel like Sorian being town. Can't reason it, he just seems so dedicated. And because LaunchpadMcQ seems to rather place his votes with reason and not random I just had the feeling he was town as well. These were the only two roles I felt strongly to be town until the Cabot RC changed the whole course.
I will keep my thoughts on Sorian and Launchpad and extend my list with Cabot and Nin.
All the other roles I haven't made up my mind yet.
I for sure was very suspicious of Cabot and nin before so this shows again how my reads would have mislead me on D1. I really do appreciate this RC for the sake of two townies being saved from lynching but now the wild guessing will continue for almost another day and this I don't really appreciate.
My thoughts on Cabot and nin being fishy together where a reaction to me being surprised by the extended day and it was for sure the first and most obvious thought that came into my mind. This is all clear now.
I strongly felt and still feel like Sorian being town. Can't reason it, he just seems so dedicated. And because LaunchpadMcQ seems to rather place his votes with reason and not random I just had the feeling he was town as well. These were the only two roles I felt strongly to be town until the Cabot RC changed the whole course.
I will keep my thoughts on Sorian and Launchpad and extend my list with Cabot and Nin.
All the other roles I haven't made up my mind yet.
I for sure was very suspicious of Cabot and nin before so this shows again how my reads would have mislead me on D1. I really do appreciate this RC for the sake of two townies being saved from lynching but now the wild guessing will continue for almost another day and this I don't really appreciate.
My thoughts on Cabot and nin being fishy together where a reaction to me being surprised by the extended day and it was for sure the first and most obvious thought that came into my mind. This is all clear now.
It might seem "very reasonable" to you but I think I explained my issue with it. It only prompted me to look through your other posts and a lot of the time I feel like I don't know where you're coming from. It could just be that we have very different play styles or something but I don't remember having this problem reading game 1.
So like I said, I just have an uneasy feeling coming from you. It's not a sure thing but you're standing out to me at the moment.
CornBurrito
Member
In lunch break at work. I won't make it for the end vote today.
Nin and Cabot are PROBABLY town. Nothing is confirmed yet.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
I'm pretty sure we can take that much for granted, for now. Right now, whatever will reduce the pool of suspects a bit helps. I'd rather operate under the simpler conclusion, that this confirms them both, until the game gets to the point where this stops making sense.
Yeah really do need to keep this in mind going forward, we can't just smudge them off the scum list and call it a day. I believe it at the moment though, the flavor matches up to me.
Actually...
This is just a thought, but I'm always very reluctant to declare anyone "confirmed".
...is it impossible for Cab's role to be scum aligned? It reveals a player, which is good for Town, but the trade off is that it helps scum Cab to avoid suspicion for a while?
It seems like a Town role on the surface, but it would actually be very powerful for scum as well. My main thought against this is that it would actually be overpowered, if anything.
Ok, I think Cabot is Town, just listing the possibility so it isn't dismissed without consideration
Kingkitty quotes are in direct post:
Were you fishing for my role kingkitty?
If you were town, you honestly wouldn't have tried to push me to reveal it. At least, I can't see why there's a good reason to do that.
Were you fishing for my role kingkitty?
If you were town, you honestly wouldn't have tried to push me to reveal it. At least, I can't see why there's a good reason to do that.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Don't take this for granted. I know I'm town, but there's always at least one really vocal mafia. Sorian is good at this game. I'm not saying he's mafia, but don't think that because he's well-reasoned, vocal, and dedicated that he's above suspicion. Same could be said for myself. I would rather people bring suspicions up about me than just arrive to the conclusion that I'm town because of these reasons.
Please, like I mentioned above, don't focus on this. It's not a good idea right now. If we don't make some assumptions now, we'll get nowhere. If our assumptions proof false later, then we'll address them.
The other school of thought that we could take today (I know cabot presented both options already but just reiterating) is that we lynch cabot who is now just an ordinary townie and then we know for sure about Nin going forward, this is the "safe" option where we have low chance of hitting scum but we also won't hit a PR and we will gain information.
Let me be clear for once: It's the opposite. These games really take a toll on my nerves, because for example when someone posts stuff that boils down to "I don't see why a completely different behaviour compared to the previous game is an indication for a change in role and/or faction and thus deserves suspicion" it honestly leaves me flabbergasted. No offense, but that is irrational it baffles me. It's part of why Palmer's accusations in the Archer game just really set me off, which led to my inevitable downfall in that game.
If it seems that I play with my gut and emotions, it's because as a mathematician I understand that much of what we call logic (not just in these games) is often times rather laughable. This means that many accusations that are brought forward (in the early parts of the game) are not based on sufficient (or even actually incriminating) evidence. That's part of why I'm not a fan of taking apart posts and interpreting them in such a way that it fits a theory, because that is backwards logic.
Since I'm a proponent of first day lynching, the question I faced was who we should choose. I didn't want to bring in actual meta data, since I feel that is a very slippery slope that could easily ruin the fun, but I did notice that Cabbot seemed distinctively different from the Archer game, where he was an ordinary town member. While I didn't think much of it, I decided to change my vote (before going to bed) to him, to indicate to others (as I had also mentioned before voting for him) that I thought that he seemed suspicious and for the reasons I explained back then, which are obviously not sufficient by themselves nor particularly strong (and in hindsight are wrong), which is also why I added "For now".
As for nin: Even if we ignore the psychological aspects, choosing that avatar rubbed me the wrong way. I was reminded of Seath from the Archer game, who claimed to be neutral, only to afterwards say that it was a lie. Unsurprisingly, it wasn't. It's the kind of avatar you would choose to make people say "Nah, too obvious". I'm glad he's not a Democrat, but I do think that avatar has led to (in hindsight) too much unnecessary discussion, so it was detrimental to our cause.
More to come.
i dont like this idea
Little ole me? Good at this game? Nah, it's not like this is brain surgery or anything. But yes, as always, I am happy to address any suspicion on myself. I can say this time that I am 100% town, none of that neutral non sense.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
And humble. >_>
Why?
You were sort of right about behaviour but in the wrong way I guess. I still disagree with everything else you said about me though.
Launch: I forgot to spell it out but that's basically the conclusion I have come to
Let the scum use up their night kill rather than waste our lynch.
It also kind of gives us less information on everyone else since they aren't forced to make harder decisions on their vote today.
If all we get is confirmation for nin I'd rather take that on faith for now.
Let the scum use up their night kill rather than waste our lynch.
It also kind of gives us less information on everyone else since they aren't forced to make harder decisions on their vote today.
Lol scum won't kill cabot or Nin now as long as it is possible that we would think they are lying. If we ever want to 100% verify this claim then it'll have to use a lynch. I do agree that it takes away from reads as far as who votes for who but I think it says a few things seeing who is and is not on board with the idea.
I honestly didn't think you'd have an ability because you posted a lot and were active, but that only left you being mafia, even though posting a lot is not exactly the most ideal mafia behaviour.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Ok, I buy it.
UNVOTE
Who are you feeling for today, taking out Carrot? Keeping in mind who has voted for both Carrot and Nin.
I just pointed out how you strongly tried to suggest you were Ted Cruz, which isn't the same as fishing for a role function claim. And apparently I was right. Considering you're a power role (and I'm sure some would assume Ted Cruz would earn a power role for being one of the more prominent republicans), I thought to my gut "would someone really make an obvious GOP persona claim this early on? and of all people Ted Cruz (a popular Republican who has a strong chance of being a power role)?"
And then I thought maybe this is some bold scum play where if somehow there isn't a Ted Cruz, electorate cabot could point back to Day 1 posting and say "look at this breadcrumb breh". I'm not saying I used an incredibly strong argument for your scalping, but it was good enough for me on this Day 1.
I should also add that I considered the fact that every good guy has a unique GOP persona. So for scum for claim Ted Cruz so early on could open up for a counter claim. Unless Ouro didn't include Ted Cruz. I guess that was sort of an argument for you not to die, but I went steam ahead anyways.
This was because I was still between two choices on how to play:
1) Reveal my power and then allow for discussion and a vote to use it
I went against this because
i) Scum would know, could react to it
ii) I wasn't sure the claim would be bought, I was hoping more people would pick up on my fluff and maybe get the global warming link
2) Do it all myself, reveal after
Day 1 ended with me comfortable in the lead for vote counts. I came to the conclusion that this option was the best choice for people to believe me.
Back to my original point, a scum cabot soft claiming Ted Cruz would be doing it only for the purpose of a real Ted Cruz counter claiming and (this is for Palmer) a prominent republican like Ted Cruz would obviously be a PR, boom, perfect night 1 kill. Then scum cabot could just say "oh, I wasn't claiming Ted Cruz, I was just posting funny pictures" I don't believe that now of course but the reasoning was there.
For the record, I'm against lynching cabot or nin atm. Occam's Razor, as far as we know the simplest explanation is they're both town; if our expected outcomes start crumbling under whatever assumptions we've made then we should re-examine those assumptions, but if not there's no reason to doubt them, specially the strongest ones, which this one is.
UNVOTE
Here are my thoughts.
I am now sure Cabot ability is, no, HAS to be GOP aligned, for the simple reason that the command and its action only makes sense for a town role (or maybe a neutral with a defined win condition, but this one is unlikely)
The reason for this is that Scum players don´t need to identify each others because, with the exception of a lost partner, they always know who each other is and have a chat to talk about this stuff, a power that lets you find out an alignment is pretty much pointless for scum players.
Lynching Cabot is a waste of time, and for scum killing him is a waste of time... but scum will want to kill Nin to see what his role is. If nin dies in the night then we get confirmation for both of them.
Unless Scum players are to afraid to kill either of them because they are "smart", in that case they can just kill someone at random. Either way cabot is as good as confirmed townie, same as nin, why shouldn´t we enjoy something good and focus on players we know nothing about yet?
Here are my thoughts.
I am now sure Cabot ability is, no, HAS to be GOP aligned, for the simple reason that the command and its action only makes sense for a town role (or maybe a neutral with a defined win condition, but this one is unlikely)
The reason for this is that Scum players don´t need to identify each others because, with the exception of a lost partner, they always know who each other is and have a chat to talk about this stuff, a power that lets you find out an alignment is pretty much pointless for scum players.
Lynching Cabot is a waste of time, and for scum killing him is a waste of time... but scum will want to kill Nin to see what his role is. If nin dies in the night then we get confirmation for both of them.
Unless Scum players are to afraid to kill either of them because they are "smart", in that case they can just kill someone at random. Either way cabot is as good as confirmed townie, same as nin, why shouldn´t we enjoy something good and focus on players we know nothing about yet?
Also for the record, I'm 100% against lynching Nin today, he could be a PR, he could be ordinary, cabot is now definitely ordinary (if this is all true). Again, I offer it today, not necessarily as the best option but it's the safe option if we think we are falling into something stupid.
Bananaspaceprincess
Neo Member
I actually struggle a little with voting Cabot out today. Yes, there is a probable chance that he is not saying the truth and his kill will give us certainty. But if he does turn out to be Ted Cruz (and I actually am willing to believe him) we wasted our lynch for today and give Mafia the first advantage of the game. We still do have a lot of people to vote for and we can still lynch Cabot on D2 if the kills of D1 and N1 reveal us more information.
Maybe I'm not thinking it through correctly so maybe you could look situations like that in old games and see how it turned out. And don't hesitate to fill me in plz.
Also I'm out tonight and will not be able to post till tmr.
Maybe I'm not thinking it through correctly so maybe you could look situations like that in old games and see how it turned out. And don't hesitate to fill me in plz.
Also I'm out tonight and will not be able to post till tmr.
To be fair, the fact that the result is made "public" leaves the possibility open that it could be a role designed to throw us off and make us think they're trustworthy, buuuut... that's incredibly, extremely unlikely. The name of the command, the response, and everything else points towards them being town. I'm looking elsewhere for a vote candidate today.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Players:
1. LaunchpadMcQ [m]
2. Hyperactivity [m]
3. CornBurrito [m]
4. SalvaPot [m]
5. Sorian [m]
6. cabot [m]
7. Never Forever [m]
8. Burbeting [m]
9. El Topo [m]
10. Kalor [m]
11. Palmer_v1 [m]
12. nin1000 [m]
13. bananaspaceprincess [f]
14. Fireblend [m]
15. *Splinter [m]
16. kingkitty [m]
Hmm no one is jumping out at me.
1. LaunchpadMcQ [m]
2. Hyperactivity [m]
3. CornBurrito [m]
4. SalvaPot [m]
5. Sorian [m]
7. Never Forever [m]
8. Burbeting [m]
9. El Topo [m]
10. Kalor [m]
11. Palmer_v1 [m]
13. bananaspaceprincess [f]
14. Fireblend [m]
15. *Splinter [m]
16. kingkitty [m]
Hmm no one is jumping out at me.
Bananaspaceprincess
Neo Member
I will keep your words in mind!
But I was asked for my opinion and that was point. I'm fully aware that this could change every minute of the game but since there is no proof about anything yet I will base my opinion on my guts.I admit to ignoring most politics, but I feel like my character is as well known, if not moreso, and I have no power. We also have to remember that this is from Ouro's mind, and thus skewed by whatever his perceptions are.
I've basically given everything BUT my name previously, and the only reason to continue withholding it is so that I can counter claim scum who decide to try using it. Based on last game though, Ouro quite likely gave the scum an edge by listing a set of unused characters again.
So, if you want my name, i'm willing to give it because it might clear up some of my issue with your statement from before. There's very little downside to doing so.
I would rather you didn't give your flavor name, hiding it is only good for town because you can call someone else in a lie and Archer game has taught me that sometimes people like to ignore the safe fake role the mod gives in favor of something crazy maybe you are the only one who can catch them in that crazy lie with your GOP's name. On the flip side, giving us a name doesn't mean much, you might be scum with that list of unused GOP names and you are just offering one from said list.
Never Forever
Member
thinking that either of them is scum at this point pointlessly overcomplicates matters
the end
and I'd rather take a risk rather than do a 'safe' vote on nin / cabot, a shot in the relative dark gives us far more information
anyway, we can go back to the Burb/cabot interaction with different eyes now that we know that cabot is town, cabot was trying to move the game forward from the RP stage into the scumhunting/discussion stage
so Burb's response is interesting if only because he attempts to paint this pro-Town move in a different light, arguing that it's tryhard and contributing for the sake of contributing. He says that making a fluffy list like that is a scummy thing to do.
Burb was clearly trying hard to find something scummy to leap onto, the question is whether he was Town trying to scumhunt, basically with similar motivations of generating discussion and getting the game going to cabot, or scum faux-scumhunting and trying to paint a Town player as scummy so that there's an easy option for the Day 1 lynch
something to think about
the end
and I'd rather take a risk rather than do a 'safe' vote on nin / cabot, a shot in the relative dark gives us far more information
anyway, we can go back to the Burb/cabot interaction with different eyes now that we know that cabot is town, cabot was trying to move the game forward from the RP stage into the scumhunting/discussion stage
so Burb's response is interesting if only because he attempts to paint this pro-Town move in a different light, arguing that it's tryhard and contributing for the sake of contributing. He says that making a fluffy list like that is a scummy thing to do.
Burb was clearly trying hard to find something scummy to leap onto, the question is whether he was Town trying to scumhunt, basically with similar motivations of generating discussion and getting the game going to cabot, or scum faux-scumhunting and trying to paint a Town player as scummy so that there's an easy option for the Day 1 lynch
something to think about
Never Forever
Member
I suppose that that's true
the main thing is that with two confirmed town players we're able to see the circumstances surrounding them, who commented, who jumped in to vote for them and for what reasons
we're also able to see who kept their noses clean and steered well clear of a potential Town lynch Day 1
the main thing is that with two confirmed town players we're able to see the circumstances surrounding them, who commented, who jumped in to vote for them and for what reasons
we're also able to see who kept their noses clean and steered well clear of a potential Town lynch Day 1
That would include you aswell darling :*
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