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Kansas 04 special election results thread
- Thread starter mcfrank
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Wait, didn't the D guy in this election got rebuked by State Dems for funding?
And how is a R+4 result bad for Dems when 5 before they got trounced with R+15 or something?
Did I log into alternate GAF again?
Again, did I log into alt-GAF or something?
And how is a R+4 result bad for Dems when 5 before they got trounced with R+15 or something?
Did I log into alternate GAF again?
Again, did I log into alt-GAF or something?
Aaron Strife
Banned
It's bad because Democrats are dumb dumbs who never win anything (exceptions: 2006, 2008, 2012 and any other year or election where this applies) and the DNC is racist and corrupt.
Since I'm obviously in Alt-GAF, how is Clinton's first 100 days?
Have we started the war to get Cyprus back after Zanzibar's intervention?
e: Weird, I thought my avatar in alt-GAF was a pinapple pizza...
Leaving aside the recent unpleasantness, I tend to think the DNC probably should've sent this guy some money. As somebody on Twitter observed, if the DNC can't send money to close races because it might hurt their candidates, that really calls into question why I should give the DNC money.
Based on the post-Trump fundraising numbers, it's not clear to me that we actually have a meaningfully limited pool of funds.
This race is still quite important because it should make it very clear to any potential Democratic candidates on the fence that they need to start planning their 2018 campaigns.
It's also worth noting that this candidate refused to compromise on either economic or social justice and still improved by 25 points. Everybody who wants to choose one and dump the other should take a lesson.
Based on the post-Trump fundraising numbers, it's not clear to me that we actually have a meaningfully limited pool of funds.
This race is still quite important because it should make it very clear to any potential Democratic candidates on the fence that they need to start planning their 2018 campaigns.
It's also worth noting that this candidate refused to compromise on either economic or social justice and still improved by 25 points. Everybody who wants to choose one and dump the other should take a lesson.
Literally six or seven days ago. That is the moment Republicans had internal polling that showed the race tightening. Even they were shocked. You're surprised Democrats did not mount a big fund raising effort other than their last minute get-out-the-vote effort why?
Again, strategy is paramount. This is why you'd be bad at running an organization like the DCCC, because you're trying to move chess pieces to win territory you're almost certain to lose when you could utilize those funds in races that the trendlines suggest are actually winnable. Even the polling only suggested a close race, at no moment did they really suggest Thompson had a shot at winning.
Because a losing result for Republicans would have been far more embarrassing for them then Democrats losing a district that they haven't won since 1992, that went Trump +27 and +30. Republicans had more to lose, and thus they had more reason to try to spend money to ensure they could hold off any surprise result.
That we turned a R +15 to a R+4, the best result we almost certainly were likely to have even if we spent money, demonstrates sound strategic use of resources when we have real races to win.
Here's Thompson's own solid case for getting support from his own state's Democratic party,
and getting declined. A poignant bit of advice that I should probably take myself at this point:
Speaking of political neophytes who understand nothing about politics, I submit exhibit A, a Democrat who admits he just felt inspired to run because he saw Bernie Sanders. Maybe he should have been engaged with the state party for years trying to help build it up? Naw.
Yeah, because people debating on Facebook means that they are taking time away from serious organization and funding efforts. I mean Christ dude, a stretch even for your arguments so far.
Indeed it does. We won tonight, don't worry. Even Republicans know it.
We'll continue to send shivers down their spine about 2018 in Georgia shortly >
Okay, let me explain how this is going to go. This is a one time offer because I feel inclined (probably foolishly, but I continue to have some hope) to believe that we can all be better than this and that having character flaws does not mean they cannot be overcome.
animlboogy you are very rude. You have a bunch of bans from being rude. I don't think you argue in bad faith, I think you just argue in overly combative ways that turn people against you before you even get to your point. This makes debates unbearable and starts everything off on the wrong foot. You might or might not be aware of this.
Amir0x and pigeon, I know you guys are annoyed at shit he says, but it always helps to argue the point rather than person, and picking up on personal insults or generalizations to argue against them don't help because that just derails the entire thread. This isn't a private chatroom. No one gives a fuck about 3 guys taking a piss at each over, especially when you're all really on the SAME SIDE.
This is a shitshow and unacceptable. But as of this post, I am not going to ban anyone. Instead, we will continue from this point:
Look at this! There is almost a semblance of a discussion going on here based on facts and opinions formed by events! I think we can work on this if everyone agrees to shake on it and not be insufferable to each other instead. We need less of that and more working together, even if people don't agree on the exact reasons why something is happening.
No more calling out post histories, no more putting words in other people's mouths. If you have a problem with a post, contact a mod. We can be civil right? Good.
animlboogy you are very rude. You have a bunch of bans from being rude. I don't think you argue in bad faith, I think you just argue in overly combative ways that turn people against you before you even get to your point. This makes debates unbearable and starts everything off on the wrong foot. You might or might not be aware of this.
Amir0x and pigeon, I know you guys are annoyed at shit he says, but it always helps to argue the point rather than person, and picking up on personal insults or generalizations to argue against them don't help because that just derails the entire thread. This isn't a private chatroom. No one gives a fuck about 3 guys taking a piss at each over, especially when you're all really on the SAME SIDE.
This is a shitshow and unacceptable. But as of this post, I am not going to ban anyone. Instead, we will continue from this point:
Here's a Daily Kos article documenting Republicans reacting to the tightening of the race days before Democrats did.
Here's more action from clearly worried republicans, pouring money into stopping Thompson. Why are the obvious winners willing to spend when Democrats are not?
Here's Thompson's own solid case for getting support from his own state's Democratic party,
and getting declined. A poignant bit of advice that I should probably take myself at this point:
Look at this! There is almost a semblance of a discussion going on here based on facts and opinions formed by events! I think we can work on this if everyone agrees to shake on it and not be insufferable to each other instead. We need less of that and more working together, even if people don't agree on the exact reasons why something is happening.
No more calling out post histories, no more putting words in other people's mouths. If you have a problem with a post, contact a mod. We can be civil right? Good.
I know. We agree on basically everything to the degree that I understand your positions, but then you said I was condoning racism in America, so that cut into my good faith a bit.
Sorry! Maybe let's start over and try again.
Well, I know people who called for Thompson or gave money. It probably doesn't help their motivation to tell them it was all a waste because the Democrats are a shitshow. We want them working in Georgia next week. More generally, there are a lot of people who could use some reminder that America isn't fundamentally doomed, and a district in Kansas moving 25 points towards the Democrats might help.
So I think you're a little wrong to say that people shouldn't be happy to see an election which might be a harbinger of Democratic wins in the future. But you're correct to say that at the same time as people are being happy about that they should also recognize the DNC could've done a lot more than it did. Would it have been counterproductive? I dunno. Maybe? It's really easy when you didn't do anything and lost to argue that you doing something wouldn't have mattered. They should've tried something. I don't know what necessarily!
And I agree with you that any argument about staying "under the radar" is kind of dumb when the President of the United States is recording a robocall against you.
Sure, I agree. But that's why some of them are taking victory laps, or others are praising their effort, instead of focusing on the systemic failure. That's part of recognizing the work they put in!
Again, I'm not saying it's not important to recognize the systemic issue, but I'm reading you as saying "people shouldn't be talking about how this was a kind of victory because it was actually a failure." Talking about the big swing in margin is important because it pumps up the base to know that we got close and future fights will be even more winnable than this one.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Speaking externally as an observer of US politics rather than a participant, a good result is a good result, and talking it down because it's not a victory is not constructive.
I don't think this is fucking over Kansas...ians so much as the US as a whole, since the election was for the US house and not the state house. This wasn't an opportunity for Kansasians to unfuck their state, that opportunity comes when they can kick out the Tea Party fucks controlling the state legislature and governor's office.
The people who volunteered and worked to win this stare definitely didn't waste their time despite not winning. It's not just about the result of this one election. The expectation is already there that Democrats win back something in 2018. That's not enough to make Republicans afraid, especially with the gerrymandering advantage. A result like this, though, is going to scare Republicans in vulnerable seats and perhaps make them moderate their stances. All that volunteering expanded the number of Republicans who now have an incentive to not go along with Trump's legislative agenda. That's not to say one special election alone says much, but I don't think it's true to say because we didn't win, it was all for nothing.
The people who volunteered and worked to win this stare definitely didn't waste their time despite not winning. It's not just about the result of this one election. The expectation is already there that Democrats win back something in 2018. That's not enough to make Republicans afraid, especially with the gerrymandering advantage. A result like this, though, is going to scare Republicans in vulnerable seats and perhaps make them moderate their stances. All that volunteering expanded the number of Republicans who now have an incentive to not go along with Trump's legislative agenda. That's not to say one special election alone says much, but I don't think it's true to say because we didn't win, it was all for nothing.
Speaking as someone who lives in the 4th district and voted for Thompson I can say that tides are turning. If things continue to be he same in Washington the next election will be close again, but with a different result. I can't speak for the rest of the country but here I think it shows that if the Democrats get off there asses and make the effort, even in deeply red areas, it makes a difference. Some smaller counties around here will turn blue if only a few communities or families believe it's in their best interest.
Aaron Strife
Banned
It's hard to say this for a special election where there's literally only one seat up, but flipping those counties blue is a big deal. What the GOP has excelled at since Obama was elected is running candidates for every office down to local dogcatcher. This helps them implement their agenda everywhere while building up a strong bench of candidates for bigger races.
A lot of people elevate the presidency above all else, but Republicans just seem to have a better grasp on what's at stake at downballot than Democrats do - at most, I would hear other liberals talking about the Senate last election. House, governorships, state legislatures? No chance, Lance. That's gotta change.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
You probably shouldn't send the DNC money regardless. Send it to candidates you really like and are competitive instead. If you're rich, then send some to the DNC too I guess. But the DNC is pretty low on "political donations" for me.
RPGCrazied
Member
He only won by 7 points? Yikes, yeah, a reckoning is coming.
Aaron Strife
Banned
The only thing we heard of was a poll done by the Republicans that only had Estes up 1, although most analysts seemed to think that was a ruse to spook donors.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
There was a poll commissioned by Thompson back in March that had him down 24
Really seems like all the momentum came in the last week or so
This guy.
Seriously.
This fucking guy.
RPGCrazied
Member
He won by 7 points, lol. That is not easily winning. He should have won by 30 points here in this deep red state. You're sooo done.
And the Democrat here was a rookie and had no support from the DNC or DCCC. Be afraid, very afraid. Times a changing.
Your goon had help from you, Paul Ryan, Mike Pence and Ted Cruz. The fact this had to be done in this state he won by 7 points is damning.
Vincent Alexander
Member
I am seriously impressed that I haven't built up a tolerance to Trump yet. You'd think by now his tweets wouldn't phase me but nope...they still awaken a deep, boiling rage.
balladofwindfishes
Member
So you're just going to like, ignore history and remain ignorant in the name of pessimism while everyone else (including the GOP) looks at this election as a sign for things to come.
It's like you want bad things to continue to happen just to justify your pessimism.
Just because something bad happened once doesn't mean no good things will ever happen again. Everything we know about voting trends and the start of a wave election doesn't change due to a couple of outliers (and 2016 wasn't even an outlier). There's a reason the GOP is nervously celebrating this victory. Because it wasn't a victory. They might have won this particular battle, but the war is clearly in the Democrats' favor based on the result. And this is expected given historical trends of midterm elections not favoring the president's party.
Lol. Fake news.
Republicans should be worried.
RPGCrazied
Member
It was never predicted the Dem here would win. Why is this guy such a liar?? Plus he didn't spend shit in this state.
I'm going to ignore condescending links to wikipedia entries on elections, yes
If you think that the DNC was right to not lift a finger of support then we don't have much to discuss
balladofwindfishes
Member
He gave you those links so you could read them and inform yourself about special elections before midterms and how they can show what midterms are going to be like.
That election in 2005 was a loss for Democrats, but signaled that 2006 was going to be a wave election for Democrats, because the Republican did far worse than anyone imagined they would.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
Tom Bonier‏ @tbonier
There are over 100 Republicans sitting in districts that wouldn't have been heavily GOP enough to overcome the D swing we saw in KS tonight.
https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/851982607587921920
But the election doesn't matter and republicans aren't scared right
There are over 100 Republicans sitting in districts that wouldn't have been heavily GOP enough to overcome the D swing we saw in KS tonight.
https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/851982607587921920
But the election doesn't matter and republicans aren't scared right
Thanks chum, I was very much alive in 2005 and remember it well. If the Dems do well in 2018 it will be in spite of the DNC not because of it
Carpe Libertatem
Member
If you want to ignore historical trends, go right ahead
Don't be surprised when people call out your uninformed "predictions," though
balladofwindfishes
Member
Complains about condescending posts, goes ahead and makes one
The DNC of now actually resembles the DNC of 2005. A fresh new leadership ready to try a 50 state strategy against an unpopular president while people around them bemoan them for being a dead, irrelevant party. All the while, the groundwork for something magical in the next election is being laid.
We're living in a near perfect repeat of 2005.
RustyNails
Member
This post is hilarious. Lets see how candidates perform without DNC's support and their various fundraising platforms.
RustyNails
Member
What happened in 94 and 96?
What a convenient excuse that will always perfectly play into your viewpoint!
If you think the DCCC should have not wasted money here when we have a zillion plausibly competitive races and historical data has shown us what pouring money into deep red territories does, you apparently have nothing to discuss!
If we do extremely well just like the trendlines are starting to suggest, then it is in spite of the DCCC and not because of them so you are right anyway!
What a delightfully quaint perspective, to pretend you are right no matter the outcome.
Just like you are pretending this was a negative outcome, despite all evidence to the contrary.
Truly impressive.
n64coder
Member
I think Bill Clinton was president and had an effect?
Can someone ELI5 what it means to win by 5 points? Is that 5% of the vote? 5000 votes?
RustyNails
Member
Gingrich Revolution.
Also keep in mind the district has gone through gerrymandering a few times.
It's my opinion that the DCCC should have spent money in Kansas, and it's (apparently, to me at least) the opinion of the majority of the posters in this thread that the DCCC was smart to not put any resources in a tight race in a deep red state. Neither viewpoint can be proven right or wrong. It's hilarious how sensitive some people can get when you even mention that the DNC and it's related orgs may have made a mistake.
FWIW, I hope that this special election was indicative of a greater blue wave that will have postiive outcomes for the Dems in 2018. I just would have wanted to have seen more energy from the new "50 state strategy" being used in Kansas.
BoogieWoogie
Banned
From +31 to +7? Holy shit I had no idea it was more than 20.
GOP better be scared. 2018 will be tough for them as Trump's stupidity is all consuming in the media.
GOP better be scared. 2018 will be tough for them as Trump's stupidity is all consuming in the media.
A 50 state strategy does not mean making a play in every race. There would not be enough money to go around, and then you'd be short funding races up to the R+12 range, which is about where we can realistically expect to have a chance. These races are going to have the most spending and so we need to have the cash to compete.
Yes in a perfect world with unlimited funds when the GOP started seeing the race tightening up seven days ago, we could have thrown money into Kansas 4th to see if it could have moved many votes as an experiment. But even with such funds, seven days is a very tight timeframe to make a big difference.
Yes in a perfect world with unlimited funds when the GOP started seeing the race tightening up seven days ago, we could have thrown money into Kansas 4th to see if it could have moved many votes as an experiment. But even with such funds, seven days is a very tight timeframe to make a big difference.
RPGCrazied
Member
Last time it was around 5 or 7 was 1995? Yikes again. How can this spell good for the GOP? Just because they won doesn't mean anything in this district. This narrow win has got to rattle the Republicans.
Precipitous drop off the back of the big hitters coming out to help KS-4.
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