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Kansas 04 special election results thread

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Cross posting my thoughts from PoliGAF:

A few points:

- Suffice to stay, this is an absolute embarrassment for the Republican party on all levels. This race should never have been close

- Probably dumb to think the DCCC shouldn't have gotten involved. Even sending paid staffers would've helped. They should've shown some good will.

- It most likely wouldn't have made a difference given the ultimate margin.

- They need to make a huge investment in Quist starting tomorrow even as a mea culpa.

- I'm feeling much better about Ossoff.

- omg how much is Yoder shitting his pants right now.
 

guek

Banned
Man. No. Punching literal Nazi's is as far as I'd go. We're not at the bloody violence level yet :p

bloody violence level yet


giphy.gif
 

Ac30

Member
"He worked for Al Jazeera! Jon Ossoff, terrorist?"

That's about it.

LOL. I am so glad he's clean.

Totally. "Hitler" makes you sound hysterical to the average American voter despite it's alarming accuracy.

Trump isn't Hitler and will never be near Hitler, can we please stop making this comparison. Trump isn't a genocidal maniac who has killed millions and runs a fascist dictatorship.
 

Pryce

Member
The fact that a pro-choice Berniecrat made a Kansa race interesting is amazing. I hope we see more of this.

I feel better about the 6th, too.
 

Ac30

Member
The fact that a pro-choice Berniecrat made a Kansa race interesting is amazing. I hope we see more of this.

I feel better about the 6th, too.

Democrats the country over could really use a nice W after that massive L 6 months ago. Still stings.
 
LOL. I am so glad he's clean.



Trump isn't Hitler and will never be near Hitler, can we please stop making this comparison. Trump isn't a genocidal maniac who has killed millions and runs a fascist dictatorship.
Well... Hitler didn't get power and immediately start killing millions.

It was a run up. Norms crashing down around, consolidation of power. Trumps got the first, the second is an open question. He does have protection from Republicans while partaking in impeachable offenses. Internment camps and putting a laser focus on certain religious and ethnic minorities were also in the cards, but it seems out institutions might be slowing those down.

The comparison is apt, but it does tend to make you appear radical.
 

Amir0x

Banned

There may always come a time when violence is necessary. History has shown this to be the case repeatedly. Me simply saying never would make absolving myself of the responsibility of participating for an ideal when such a regrettable time comes. It wouldn't be fair to those who chose to fight in such dire times. I'd be there.

It'd simply take a lot more than what we are at now. Say, for example, if Trump decided to round up Muslims and put them in camps. That would be worth violence. So you see we have a ways to go.
 

Bellamin

Member
Even though Thompson lost, Dems should take it as a win. He only lost by 7 points in the heart of Koch Industries territory. A lot of it had to do with Anti-Brownback sentiment, someone Estes is closely tied to. If Thompson was a pro-life candidate, the Republicans would have likely lost the seat.
 

Ac30

Member
Well... Hitler didn't get power and immediately start killing millions.

It was a run up. Norms crashing down around, consolidation of power. Trumps got the first, the second is an open question. He does have protection from Republicans while partaking in impeachable offenses. Internment camps and putting a laser focus on certain religious and ethnic minorities were also in the cards, but it seems out institutions might be slowing those down.

The comparison is apt, but it does tend to make you appear radical.

I understand, but so far there hasn't been a reichstag fire, Muslims aren't being rounded up and the courts are handing Trump more Ls than he can handle. His own party can't pass a bill they've waited 8 years to vote for, and more than half the country finds him distasteful.

He's also a dummy.

He's an aspiring fascist without the means or capabilities of realizing his twisted dreams. Besides, fears of him going nuts are at least subsiding for me since McMaster's appointment to the NSC. Thank God Bams managed to pack the circuit courts.
 
I understand, but so far there hasn't been a reichstag fire, Muslims aren't being rounded up and the courts are handing Trump more Ls than he can handle. His own party can't pass a bill they've waited 8 years to vote for, and more than half the country finds him distasteful.

He's also a dummy.

He's an aspiring fascist without the means or capabilities of realizing his twisted dreams. Besides, fears of him going nuts are at least subsiding for me since McMaster's appointment to the NSC. Thank God Bams managed to pack the circuit courts.
I can agree with this.

He had Hitleresque intentions, with none of the intelligence or charisma. And a system that is hopefully a bulwark against his less savory predilections.
 
Shot:

@ForecasterEnten
So in the end Dems did 20 points better than past prez vote suggsted in KS-4. They did the same in CA-34 last week. We'll see GA-6 next week

Chaser:

GA-06

Trump: 48.31%
Clinton: 46.82%

MT-AL

Trump: 56.47%
Clinton: 35.94%

SC-05

Trump: 57.28%
Clinton: 38.80%
 

Ac30

Member
I can agree with this.

He had Hitleresque intentions, with none of the intelligence or charisma. And a system that is hopefully a bulwark against his less savory predilections.

I'm actually pleasantly surprised at how well the courts are keeping him in check.

Shot:



Chaser:

GA-06

Trump: 48.31%
Clinton: 46.82%

MT-AL

Trump: 56.47%
Clinton: 35.94%

SC-05

Trump: 57.28%
Clinton: 38.80%

Don't fuck us, GA.
 

JaggedSac

Member
I'm actually pleasantly surprised at how well the courts are keeping him in check.



Don't fuck us, GA.

Doing my civic duty tomorrow. Wife did it today. There were actually groups of people holding signs for Ossoff on a major intersection on Holcomb Bridge Rd this past weekend. Never see that. Hopefully there is a good turnout.
 

guek

Banned
There may always come a time when violence is necessary. History has shown this to be the case repeatedly. Me simply saying never would make absolving myself of the responsibility of participating for an ideal when such a regrettable time comes. It wouldn't be fair to those who chose to fight in such dire times. I'd be there.

It'd simply take a lot more than what we are at now. Say, for example, if Trump decided to round up Muslims and put them in camps. That would be worth violence. So you see we have a ways to go.
I generally agree
 

Veidt

Blasphemer who refuses to accept bagged milk as his personal savior
Wow. This is a really sad situation. Perhaps it's time to realise your political system is set up so that the ruling minority keeps winning.

It's out of your hands unless you decide to take action outside of the system. You need a political revolution.
 
Wow. This is a really sad situation. Perhaps it's time to realise your political system is set up so that the ruling minority keeps winning.

It's out of your hands unless you decide to take action outside of the system. You need a political revolution.

I mean, this is one of the most right districts in the country. A loss is disappointing but not really sure that is the right takeaway.
 

Veidt

Blasphemer who refuses to accept bagged milk as his personal savior
I mean, this is one of the most right districts in the country. A loss is disappointing but not really sure that is the right takeaway.
Oh I see, it was never supposed to be this close of a loss? That's good then 😀
 

Ac30

Member
I mean, this is one of the most right districts in the country. A loss is disappointing but not really sure that is the right takeaway.

I think some rewrites are in order, though. Get rid of partisan redistricting and dump the electoral college - 2016 showed everyone it serves no purpose.
 

Xe4

Banned
Oh I see, it was never supposed to be this close of a loss? That's good then 😀
Hillary lost it by 27 points, if I recall correctly.

I think some rewrites are in order, though. Get rid of partisan redistricting and dump the electoral college - 2016 showed everyone it serves no purpose.
If we get enough democratic legislators and governors we can get rid of it by means of national popular vote interstate compact. Getting rid of Gerrymandering is going to take federal legislation or a supreme court decision. Red states won't allow anything else.
 

Ac30

Member
Hillary lost it by 27 points, if I recall correctly.


If we get enough democratic legislators and governors we can get rid of it by means of national popular vote interstate compact. Getting rid of Gerrymandering is going to take federal legislation or a supreme court decision. Red states won't allow anything else.

The compact would need to be made legally binding though, and there's nothing stopping future Republican state houses from repealing it, is there?
 

Machina

Banned
There may always come a time when violence is necessary. History has shown this to be the case repeatedly. Me simply saying never would make absolving myself of the responsibility of participating for an ideal when such a regrettable time comes. It wouldn't be fair to those who chose to fight in such dire times. I'd be there.

It'd simply take a lot more than what we are at now. Say, for example, if Trump decided to round up Muslims and put them in camps. That would be worth violence. So you see we have a ways to go.

tumblr_nxcqnnaZlP1qcruu2o1_500.gif
 

Xe4

Banned
The compact would need to be made legally binding though, and there's nothing stopping future Republican state houses from repealing it, is there?

Well, republicans could decide to repeal it, but that would piss off any constituents who like being able to have a voice and election money coming into their state. And it doesn't need to be legally binding. It's just a work around the constitution, although it would undoubtedly face legal challenge and may need congressional consent.

Though it's a far better solution than amending the constitution, a neigh impossible task nowadays.
 

pigeon

Banned
I've seen people ranting and raving for a minute about this race not getting the support it clearly needed. It didn't, in the end, and it was close. And some of you see that as reason to celebrate?

This was winnable. This is a failure. Sure, jerk off to the notion of Democrats on an upswing, but have the decency to mourn for the people of Kansas who might've had a better go of it if this went the way it clearly could have.



You're going to cringe when you read these posts in a year.



What is your recent post history if not a political neophyte having a massive meltdown over their preferred savior not winning?

And before you go there, I voted for and vocally supported Clinton when the time came.

I mean, I might call his post history an understandable reaction to one of America's political parties condoning open white supremacy and collusion with foreign powers to subvert American democracy.
 

Auto_aim1

MeisaMcCaffrey
Party that's in power in the WH usually tends to lose many seats. It happened during Bush and Obama's presidency. It will happen with Trump as well. The Dem base is absolutely fired up right now though. If the current level of motivation stays then I think the Republicans will get destroyed in the mid-terms, and Trump's stupidity will also sedate the Republican voters somewhat.

Although, while it looks bad now for Republicans who knows what's gonna happen in 2018, but I feel like they are definitely gonna lose the house or senate. It'll be a miracle if they retain both.
 

pigeon

Banned
Yeah that's brand new. "Super Predators" was just a minor blip in U.S. history.

The most revealing thing about the Trump era is how so many liberals failed to notice how inherently racist our entire political system is until a guy with bad hair and poorly tailored suits ran for president.

You're complaining that Amirox is overreacting and also saying the whole system has been racist and bankrupt for decades.

I feel like you're far more interested in having an argument than in having a coherent viewpoint.
 
Two things can be true:

- I think it's a failure that the DCCC didn't get involved.

- Given the margin and the history of the district in other statewide races, it probably was not winnable. That last 7% was probably unmovable given the history of the district. I *think* the last Dems won this district was in 2006 when Sebelius won the state with like 57% of the vote, and she barely won KS-04. There are also, like, 350 house seats more Dem than KS-04. So.
 

wandering

Banned
Ah, here it is, the context where liberals downplay the inherent racism of the U.S. political system.

See you in the next police shooting thread, Pigeon!

I mean, the person you're talking to has a raised fist as their avatar, not sure if they're a liberal.

(Sorry if I presume too much pigeon)
 

Xe4

Banned
Tell that to the people doing time from that era.

The three strikes policy was mistake, I don't think you're going to have anyone argue against that. Hell, Clinton agrees it was a mistake. It doesn't make her endorsement (or Sanders vote of it) ok. But it is important to remember that shit was 20 years ago, being pressed by Republicans, and during a time with higher crime than now. No shit we've made progress in 20 years.

And please don't compare a mistake like that to Trump calling Mexicans rapists, or refugees terrorists, or insulting a Mexican judge, or insulting a Muslim gold star family. We're talking about whole different levels of fucked up, and you trying to equate them is disgusting.
 

pigeon

Banned
I mean, the person you're talking to has a raised fist as their avatar, not sure if they're a liberal.

(Sorry if I presume too much pigeon)

Liberal just means he doesn't like me and has decided I must hold whatever positions he hates the most, so in that context I'm pretty clearly a liberal.
 

pigeon

Banned
I'm not arguing in bad faith. I believe every word I've written here. But sure, continue to cast doubt on that.

When your position is internally inconsistent, it's hard not to.

And yes, I can read. Hence my comments on... what... you... wrote.

See, that's the thing. You didn't comment on what I wrote at all. As far as I can tell, you commented on some hypothetical post that you wish I had written because you had a really good comeback for it, but it's not the one I actually wrote.

I didn't suggest in my post that white supremacy isn't a thread that constantly runs through American politics. I'm happy to agree with that. But if you believe that, then it makes no sense to sneer at Amirox for...being radicalized by Trump's win?

Your criticisms of Amirox from the right and me from the left only make sense if your goal in this conversation is to argue with everybody regardless of their position.

I don't know who the fuck you are.

Then you made a lot of hasty and totally incorrect assumptions about me from very little information! That was pretty stupid. Be a better poster and stop shitting up the board.
 

Amir0x

Banned
I've seen people ranting and raving for a minute about this race not getting the support it clearly needed. It didn't, in the end, and it was close. And some of you see that as reason to celebrate?

This was winnable. This is a failure. Sure, jerk off to the notion of Democrats on an upswing, but have the decency to mourn for the people of Kansas who might've had a better go of it if this went the way it clearly could have.

This was a remarkable omen of things to come (as well as our crazy over-performance in literally every special election held since November 8th, but I'm sure you've been following the trendlines and not just kneejerking 'cuz you still mad) and throwing money away on unwinnable races just to send a "message" is a stupid fucking strategy as the DCCC only has limited funds to spend. You proclaiming it is a failure is comedy defined. Even Republicans understand what this results mean, as does every political analyst this side of main street. But nooo, animlboogy gonna teach 'em. This is a R+15 district that we brought down to R+4, a district we haven't won since 1992. 1992. If you think wasting money trying to prove Democrats aren't a toxic brand in Kansas 4th is a good strategy, it is no wonder why you guys stay on the outside of winning political campaigns.

We have a zillion races coming up that we need every penny for, that are infinitely more winnable than Kansas 4th. You get that, right? That our resources are finite, there are hundreds of races, and we need to pick and choose which ones we have a realistic chance of winning? Let alone in a district where the Democratic brand is literally equivalent to poison.

You ain't ever going to effect SHIT until you start winning with whatever far left wing of the party you think is ascendant. Work on that before bandying about bullshit strategies pulled from the Fisher Price MY-FIRST-ELECTION packet.

Can you people please just admit you haven't done the slightest research and let the rest of us continue with facts? We got Trump pundits on CNN with a better grasp of reality than you.

You're going to cringe when you read these posts in a year.

Republicans are the biggest threat to American democracy in a hundred years. Not only will I not cringe, but we're going to take this fury and dismantle their grip on power piece by piece in the coming years.

You can come along if you choose, but spare the rest of us your garbled nonsense analysis of this election. People who spent more than 1 consecutive year following politics understand what these sorts of results mean.

What is your recent post history if not a political neophyte having a massive meltdown over their preferred savior not winning?

And before you go there, I voted for and vocally supported Clinton when the time came.

This is me making the official thread for the 2006 mid-terms on NeoGAF. Since this is the best proof I can offer in the online space (although I can show you my images in Senator Obama's office, Senator Clinton's office, McCain's office, pictures of me w/ Representative Kanjorski), you should learn what "Neophyte" means. Do you know what it means?

Also, throwaway "meltdown" accusations aside, having a furious reaction to America electing the worst candidate this country has seen in a hundred years has nothing to do with Clinton or meltdowns. If Bernie was nominated, I would have sucked his dick too. Because I don't follow saviors, I vote for whoever the goddamned Democrat is and shut my fucking mouth of criticism when it's election season because I'm not going to give my enemies ammo.

What I'm not going to do is bathe in my ignorance and pretend this isn't a remarkable result and go around stomping my feet and tossing about absurd strategies about how really we could have won this district if only we threw good money after bad while siphoning resources away from races we know we have a plausible shot at legitimately winning.
 

pigeon

Banned
What have I said in here or anywhere on GAF that possibly comes across as right wing/conservative?

Mocking people for being radicalized by Trump's victory is necessarily a moderate position.

If you are actually a radical, then other people getting radicalized should presumably be your goal.
 

pigeon

Banned
This is cute. This is a constant with a certain contingent of GAF since the Trump win. Just going in on this angle that the person you're talking to is writing every single reply in bad faith, that they're ignorant, etc. etc. etc.

If everybody is constantly assuming that all of your replies are in bad faith or ignorant, maybe the problem isn't with everybody.
 

Amir0x

Banned
This is cute. This is a constant with a certain contingent of GAF since the Trump win. Just going in on this angle that the person you're talking to is writing every single reply in bad faith, that they're ignorant, etc. etc. etc.

I'm going to read the rest of your post, but I felt compelled to take a moment when I tripped over that one so early on. I look forward to the Shareblue article about how Russians are infiltrating NeoGAF.

Because you have yet to present an argument that suggests you're not ignorant.

Do so, and the rest of us will stand up and listen. You earn no respect for your political views otherwise unless backed up by experience and facts.

Until then, every political junkie on Earth who isn't just tuning in for the first time in their lives will continue to grasp how crazy this result is.
 

pigeon

Banned
So you're either going off on game theory tweet storms about Trump that border on Benghazi delusion, or you're a moderate?

Come on, dude.

I mean, we're back to my original point. If your position is "America's full of white supremacy everywhere but wanting to destroy the Republican Party is naive and childish," I don't think you make sense at all.
 

Amir0x

Banned
animlboogy arguments so far about this result:

1. We should have won because reasons. I know the best strategies.
2. You guys believe in Russian conspiracies and such so gotcha!
3. We lost so by literal definition that is a failure. Any loss is a failure, and there's no nuance behind the numbers at all.

This is riveting stuff. Writing it all down.
 

pigeon

Banned
Right, I just want the republican party to flourish. They're my favorite. I definitely said that. You're definitely not conjuring up various images in your head based on a scant few words and running off into wild directions.

I mean, fuck, you straight up said I was coming at amir0x from "the right". Your replies are spilling straight from your ass.

See a doctor. You're having a psychotic break.
 

Maledict

Member
Animlboogy, I think you need to take a break mate. Your posts and responses aren't making any sense, and you seem to be arguing with versions of Pigeon and Amirox that don't actually exist.
 

Amir0x

Banned
There you go again. Trying to frame who exactly I am and what my investment in politics is.

And "every political junkie on earth" includes a shitload of people who absolutely do not see this result with the exact framing you do. That's just... reality. Your bubble is bordering on impenetrable if you truly believe anything close to that.

"Every political junkie" does not include people who know shit about American politics, obviously.

Again demonstrate I'm wrong by sharing facts about this election, not your gut feeling. Showcase you know why it would be smart to have wasted money on this election versus the zillion we have coming up where we could plausibly win, knowing that we have a finite pool of resources and that history has shown pouring money into deep red districts with a known hatred of Democrats often turns voters off rather than the opposite. Please, share why every Republican right now is shitting bricks in the pundit-sphere, since we dramatically overperformed even some of the worst case predictions tonight. Surely they are just pretending, right? Make Democrats feel all complacent and shit?

And demonstrate why we have overperformed dramatically in every special election since November 8th with our trends continuing to climb, why we shouldn't strategically allocate the money to fund races which have fallen within the trend line range of R+8 to R+12?

Surely you'll have a contribution this time you're asked.

animlboogy said:
1. Read the New York Times piece on this election. Here, I conveniently clipped a bit of it: Yeah, that's a strategy to get real smug about.

2. The relationship between Russian and far too many players in the Trump campaign is a real and pressing issue. What I find dorky are the people who turn it into a hobby. And what I find outright vile are the people who are turning it into a Benghazi-esque cottage industry, that takes minor facts and spins them out into massive absurd connect-the-dots silliness. It's an outgrowth of the grief over Clinton's loss, much as the surge in right-wing extremism was in the wake of Obama's win. I thought Dems were better than that but... here we are.

3. Yes. We lost. See point number one. Trump is in the fucking White House! Right now! It's not the time to do victory laps over races that maybe could've been victories had there been more than 24 hours of DNC-level muscle behind it. How many seats will Dems lose before we stop sort of shrugging at each one like "It's inevitable... but have you seen the data on next election?" You're radicalized in a specific way that leads to to rants and raveson GAF about Trump and leftists, and so on, yet somehow the lust for developing winning strategies and showing some signs of effort before the last minute is completely lost on you? That's not radicalism, that's just being an extremely stern supporter of the highest powers already in place in your chosen party.

1. We shouldn't have spent a dime in this district. That the polling broke so decisively at the late hour to make Dems think spending a few last minute dollars might be worth something is irrelevant. We don't pull strategies from the ass, we carefully analyze the landscape and view polling. It wasn't until the final days where it got this close in polling, where GOP polls started seeing even close results. Just tossing money around haphazardly because it feels good is just irrational pandering to blind idealism.

2. I could give a fuck. I am for playing every goddamned dirty trick in the book to destroy Republicans. You claim you realize how institutionalized racism is in this country, understand how Republicans have given backbone to this ideology. And yet you want me to play fair as they shit on millions of minorities and LGBT? Yeah, you can continue holding your dick while you take a piss, I'm gonna not give a shit if some of mine happens to get on their toilet seats. This is a war for the soul of our country. Nevermind that this Russian story is possibly the biggest political scandal since Watergate, and for REAL this time not in any of the fevered dreams of Benghazi-gate admirers. I'll play any conspiracy, push any fake news, exploit any rule possible to ensure the Republican's eventual political destruction.

3. We're going to lose plenty of races that "seem" close, but really aren't if you understand the districts they're in. We have hundreds of races coming up, and we need to strategically allocate our funds. This result is insanely positive, and it continues to show trendline movement for us. If the standard continues to be R+8 to R+12, we have 96 to 100 seats potentially at play in the near future. If these numbers aren't good enough for you without also wasting money frivolously, then you don't know the struggle.
 
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