NPD Sales Results for December 2015 [Up1: Super Mario Maker]

benny_a

extra source of jiggaflops
Apr 25, 2009
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Did that functionality become available in December, which makes these offline units useless?

I have to be clueless on this then, wouldn't newer units get that updated when they have to use the one time activation, and units that might've connected to the internet once before December get that as well? Is there even a case of an Xbox One that hasn't been connected since launch that can't play 2015 games, because I haven't heard of it.
I'll restate the point: How do you acquire firmware Y when you only have firmware X and Game A requires firmware >Y without an Internet connection.
 
Feb 24, 2014
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I'll restate the point: How do you acquire firmware Y when you only have firmware X and Game A requires firmware >Y without an Internet connection.
It's too late and I'm too tired for this right now, so I'm going to ask this. Are you saying you need an internet connection at all times to get firmware Y so Game A can function, and if you don't have internet, you are stuck with firmware X?

Because if not, and you are asking how do you get firmware Y without internet, then I would assume you don't. It also depends on when firmware Y became available.

Sorry if I'm making this difficult.
 

benny_a

extra source of jiggaflops
Apr 25, 2009
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It's too late and I'm too tired for this right now, so I'm going to ask this. Are you saying you need an internet connection at all times to get firmware Y so Game A can function, and if you don't have internet, you are stuck with firmware X?

Because if not, and you are asking how do you get firmware Y without internet, then I would assume you don't. It also depends on when firmware Y became available.

Sorry if I'm making this difficult.
As far as I know, but I admit I haven't checked since NXE, there was never any capability to update a firmware offline on the Xbox One.

The Xbox One lacks (or lacked if I'm corrected on this in the last 6 months) that feature.

If you have a firrmware on your system and a new game you bought was compiled against a newer firmware version than the one you use you have to go online to get that update.
On PS4 you can update via USB or with every game having the required to launch firmware included on disc. Therefor the comparison to PS4 in this specific aspect is invalid.
 
Aug 31, 2013
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Jesus CHRIST, not counting this sentence or any of the quotes/links, this was +1000 words. I have a typed up a fucking essay at like 11-12 o'clock. I swear if I have to do this again...
I've never actually clocked mine, but 1000 doesn't seem like very many. :p

I went into my spreadsheets and decided to see how the ratio between the US and UK+Germany+France+Canada (estimating to 8% of the US) changed between LTD 2013, LTD 2014, and LTD 2015. For 2015 German+France data, seeing as we are missing those, I'm going to give them a similar range for YoY performance that the UK had in 2015 (a decrease of about 13% if the Xbox One is at 2.4m in the UK at the end of 2015. Any lower is a bit too extreme of a drop (>20% if 2.3m for example)), so I'll do about 15% drops for those.
I'm not really sure why you've changed methodology here, because what we were doing before seemed reasonably solid. To determine whether or not these countries were keeping pace with the US, we just looked at whether they were keeping pace with the US, and projected as necessary. Everything we looked at seemed to indicate not-US performance was flat at best and more typically down, and then you sorta stopped responding. Then you seemed to toss all of that work out and replace it with, "There's just no way it's doing worse than OG!!" Now you're presenting an estimate where you pick an arbitrarily positive result for the UK, pretend France and Germany mirrored it, and then claim that shows T1 is doing just fine. What was wrong with looking at pace to estimate pacing? Why we gotta make shit up? =/

I'm thinking with extra months of sales for China, both are either at 150k combined or just slightly over. (So about 90k for China by the end of 2015 and we already know it sells better than Japan seeing as it launched 3 weeks later and was ahead of it by 40% by the end of April 2015 (71,063 for China and 50,618 for Japan according to Media Create).
Sure, I could see 150k, but nothing significantly over, really.

Also there isn't anything to suggest that Japan and China are the majority of Tier 2 sales.
And there sure as hell isn't anything to suggest that all of those countries are an average of half the size of Japan. Apparently they'd need to be spending an average of $1.6B/year to be half of Japan. That's kinda huge.

As I already posted, that "around 18 million" rumor was for the active online player base during December. That would not be all the consoles sold to consumers.
And as I already posted, you're reading way too much in to this. The only official statement was that there were 200M active W10 users. Some person privately told Mary Jo that "around 18 million" of them were Bones. That's it. It was never even presented as an official, accurate breakdown. It's just something Mary Jo heard.

Still seems low. Looking to the AMD thread, once we get PS4 shipped numbers that should give us a pretty good range for what the Xbox One's shipments will be at by the end of 2015.
Again, you're putting way too much stock in to that number. AMD aren't saying they've totaled 58.8M, give or take. They're saying the difference from last generation is around 20M. For example, 18M is "around" 20M. As would be 22M, or 17M.

I don't own a hat :(
What?? Everyone should own a hat.

Damn you, making me do research and stuff.

According to this report, the Japanese gaming market reached 9.6 billion dollars in 2014. Of that 9.6 billion, only 3.2 billion is from dedicated video game hardware and software. The rest? Online gaming market which is "...content delivered through smartphones, tablets, feature phones and the PC."
lol Lemme give you a hand.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

So Japan, with its GDP of US$4602B, spends $3.2B on consoles, and you think countries like Greece and Portugal are gonna be spending $1.6B of their $230B GDPs on the same? How about the bigger, wealthier countries like Israel, Singapore, Denmark, South Africa, and UAE, weighing in at $300B-$400B? Any of them seem likely to spend more than five times the fraction of their GDP on consoles as Japan does? Japan spends 0.07%. If China spend the same $3.2B as Japan, that's 0.03% of their GDP. You're looking for countries like Denmark and South Africa to spend roughly 0.47% of their GDPs. Some countries will need to spend even more.

Like I said, even 500K total for T2 is assuming a lot.

I was unable to find similar data for those other regions you specified (however I think you were being rhetorical) so I have no comment on those one way or the other, however, a country like China was able to outperform Japan when it comes to Xbox One sales, and that market would be and is way more difficult to get sales for seeing as the ban on home consoles was only lifted recently and the grey market for those devices would be huge thanks to prices of the official consoles and general income for citizens in China.
1%, blah blah blah. ;) As the Wiki page shows, the countries you're seeing these tiny numbers out of are actually economic powerhouses in the grand scheme of things. China is a huge fucking economy, and look how few Bones they've bought. Expecting each of these other countries to buy half as many as China or Japan did is kinda ridiculous.

Considering the situation in Japan with the Xbox One (brand never doing well there, barely any retailers even stocking the machine) I don't think the other countries doing at least half of Japan is an out of this world thought.
It is when you step back and you actually look at how many people you're talking about and how much money they have.

There is only the one time internet connection needed for the Xbox One. After that, you don't need to go back online if you so desire, so I don't understand what you are trying to say.
Let's say you bought your Bone in September, activated it at McD's so you could install v2.5 or whatever of the OS so you could play your retail copy of Gears at home. Then your mom gets you a copy of CoD for Christmas, which requires OS2.73. You'll be unable to play your new game until you go online and update the OS. Unlike PS4, PS3, 360, and even PS2, game discs can't contain an OS update, even if the game needs it to launch. The only way to get OS updates and play "current" content is to phone home to MS.
 
Nov 18, 2013
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There are Xboxes out there who were not connected to the internet for 4 weeks. That's for sure.
  • We should have people who arer happy to only playing their Madden or FIFA offline and nothing else. No count.
  • There are Xboxes that were sold and died. No count.
  • There might be Xboxes of users who just did not have the time/interest to turn on their Box for a whole month because they just were too busy doing other stuff or they were somewhere else. Possible reasons are plenty from falling in love to breaking their hand to playing stuff on another gaming device. And not everyone is a busy gamer.
I have no idea how many people this might be.

For our statistics it would be an advantage for MS if a lot of people did not see a reason to use their product for a whole month.
Funny.
 
Jan 27, 2007
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As far as I know, but I admit I haven't checked since NXE, there was never any capability to update a firmware offline on the Xbox One.

The Xbox One lacks (or lacked if I'm corrected on this in the last 6 months) that feature.

If you have a firrmware on your system and a new game you bought was compiled against a newer firmware version than the one you use you have to go online to get that update.
On PS4 you can update via USB or with every game having the required to launch firmware included on disc. Therefor the comparison to PS4 in this specific aspect is invalid.
Wait, don't they put new FW on the disks?
 
Nov 30, 2014
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Ipoh, Malaysia
So I'm posting the latest Germany LTD figures here because I thought about starting a discussion about it.

PS4: 2.8 million
XB1: 600K
Wii U: 690K

Holiday sales
PS4: 570K
XB1: 110K

2015 sales
PS4: 1.4 million
XB1: 270K

So as can be seen above, the PS4 sold half of its LTD in 2015 alone. This makes it very likely that the PS4 was up YoY in 2015 over 2014. On the other hand, the XB1 sold 270K in 2015. This is less than half of its LTD, which highly suggests that it was down YoY or flat at best. I wouldn't be surprised if most other markets were down YoY as well in 2015. Thoughts, anyone?

Edit: My mistake, the XB1 was actually up YoY significantly in Germany. But still, I think RoTW sales are insufficient for the XB1 to be over 18 million sold through.
 
Nov 30, 2014
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Isn't Germany supposed to be one XB1s strongest EU markets?
Yes, but it is definitely not even close to the XB1's second biggest market, the UK. Also, the PS4 is a beast in Germany. Those GIF's are enough evidence. Anyway, I think this proves that the XB1 is not up YoY in most countries and a very accurate estimation of sold through figures WW would be 18 million.
 
Mar 19, 2013
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Isn't Germany supposed to be one XB1s strongest EU markets?
It is the 2nd big market in EU for Xbone.

Yes, but it is definitely not even close to the XB1's second biggest market, the UK. Also, the PS4 is a beast in Germany. Those GIF's are enough evidence. Anyway, I think this proves that the XB1 is not up YoY in most countries and a very accurate estimation of sold through figures WW would be 18 million.
But it is up in Germany... down in UK.
 
Oct 15, 2013
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So I'm posting the latest Germany LTD figures here because I thought about starting a discussion about it.

PS4: 2.8 million
XB1: 600K
Wii U: 690K

Holiday sales
PS4: 570K
XB1: 110K

2015 sales
PS4: 1.4 million
XB1: 270K
It's amazing that in Germany PS4 sold about as much in two months as Xbone did in two years. More actually, considering that several European tier 2 countries imported Xbones from Germany before their respective official launches.
 

benny_a

extra source of jiggaflops
Apr 25, 2009
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Wait, don't they put new FW on the disks?
That was never part of the design, because a console designed around for being online-only or 24h online-check-in does not require such capabilities.

You can imagine this being hard to test for (as it requires preparation) and unless you're in the business of calling companies out on their shit, like you would ostensibly believe the enthusiast press is, you don't investigate that.
 
Feb 24, 2014
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So I'm posting the latest Germany LTD figures here because I thought about starting a discussion about it.

PS4: 2.8 million
XB1: 600K
Wii U: 690K

Holiday sales
PS4: 570K
XB1: 110K

2015 sales
PS4: 1.4 million
XB1: 270K

So as can be seen above, the PS4 sold half of its LTD in 2015 alone. This makes it very likely that the PS4 was up YoY in 2015 over 2014. On the other hand, the XB1 sold 270K in 2015. This is less than half of its LTD, which highly suggests that it was down YoY or flat at best. I wouldn't be surprised if most other markets were down YoY as well in 2015. Thoughts, anyone?

Edit: My mistake, the XB1 was actually up YoY significantly in Germany. But still, I think RoTW sales are insufficient for the XB1 to be over 18 million sold through.
Why did I not just wait a day?
 
Feb 24, 2014
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I've never actually clocked mine, but 1000 doesn't seem like very many. :p
It doesn't, but come on. 1000. I don't like doing even 500 word essays for school.

I'm not really sure why you've changed methodology here, because what we were doing before seemed reasonably solid. To determine whether or not these countries were keeping pace with the US, we just looked at whether they were keeping pace with the US, and projected as necessary. Everything we looked at seemed to indicate not-US performance was flat at best and more typically down, and then you sorta stopped responding. Then you seemed to toss all of that work out and replace it with, "There's just no way it's doing worse than OG!!" Now you're presenting an estimate where you pick an arbitrarily positive result for the UK, pretend France and Germany mirrored it, and then claim that shows T1 is doing just fine. What was wrong with looking at pace to estimate pacing? Why we gotta make shit up? =/
I changed it because I thought it would provide another look at the US:Tier 1 countries. If we compared the US and the next 4 biggest countries by their LTD at the end of the year, it basically accomplishes the goal we wanted, which is how the ratios have changed in the favor of the US.

Also, I gave an "arbitrary" result for the UK because it was the one that made the most sense given how the US performed in 2015 compared to 2014 (up 13%). UK being down by the same percentage made more sense than a >20% drop in the second full year.

Also, looks like I was wrong to do this for Germany, and most likely France as well. Germany was actually UP YoY by 17%. Bigger increase than the US.

If you want me to do what we did earlier:

2013 US - 1817K
2014 US - 4370K
2015 US - 4944K

2014 x2.41 (2.405)
2015 x1.13 (1.131)

2013 GER: 100K
2014 GER: 231K
2015 GER: 270K

2014 x2.31
2015 x1.17 (1.169)

Germany is doing well, it seems.

Now if we do what I did in the post you quoted (with France still being 15% down)

LTD 2013

US = 1817K
UK+Germany+France+Canada = ~735k

Ratio is 71:29

LTD 2014

US = 6187K
UK+Germany+France+Canada = ~2692k

Ratio is 70:30

LTD 2015

US = 11131K
UK+Germany+France+Canada = ~4554k

Ratio is 71:29 (thanks to rounding, both are technically under 71:eek:ver 29, which is better than the 2013 ratio)

Not making shit up here. And for France, if it were flat or up by the same percentage as Germany, the ratio is still 70:30, but it is very close to staying at the 69:31 ratio in 2014 if Canada strayed away from just being 8% of the US.

Tier 1 is doing just fine, it seems.

Sure, I could see 150k, but nothing significantly over, really.
We agree on something!

And there sure as hell isn't anything to suggest that all of those countries are an average of half the size of Japan. Apparently they'd need to be spending an average of $1.6B/year to be half of Japan. That's kinda huge.
But the thing here is that when looking at that $3.2B in Japan, almost none of it is thanks to Xbox. That's all thanks to Nintendo and Sony (as hardware devs), so trying to use the spending on what is almost 100% Sony and Nintendo and saying that other countries can't spend even half of what was purchased from Japan in terms of Xbox is a bit extreme.

And as I already posted, you're reading way too much in to this. The only official statement was that there were 200M active W10 users. Some person privately told Mary Jo that "around 18 million" of them were Bones. That's it. It was never even presented as an official, accurate breakdown. It's just something Mary Jo heard.
I don't think I'm reading too much, seeing as personally, I don't care for this rumor at all. It literally has no bearing for what I think the Xbox One's sales are at right now. Was just entertaining if it were 18 million. We are likely to get MAU's from MS anyway next week.

Again, you're putting way too much stock in to that number. AMD aren't saying they've totaled 58.8M, give or take. They're saying the difference from last generation is around 20M. For example, 18M is "around" 20M. As would be 22M, or 17M.
58.8m was a bit too specific and I changed my stance on that like within the hour of me finding out about that info.

Rounding up or down 10% or 2-3 million doesn't seem like a thing AMD would do for console shipments. If ~20m is thrown out there, I'm more inclined to think 19m-21m than anything past those.

What?? Everyone should own a hat.
Hats are only good for bets, and if those bets involve eating said hat.

lol Lemme give you a hand.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

So Japan, with its GDP of US$4602B, spends $3.2B on consoles, and you think countries like Greece and Portugal are gonna be spending $1.6B of their $230B GDPs on the same? How about the bigger, wealthier countries like Israel, Singapore, Denmark, South Africa, and UAE, weighing in at $300B-$400B? Any of them seem likely to spend more than five times the fraction of their GDP on consoles as Japan does? Japan spends 0.07%. If China spend the same $3.2B as Japan, that's 0.03% of their GDP. You're looking for countries like Denmark and South Africa to spend roughly 0.47% of their GDPs. Some countries will need to spend even more.
Again, we are looking at just Xbox here, not Playstation+Nintendo+Xbox. Just Xbox. As already stated, Japan spent next to nothing of that $3.2b on Xbox. These countries overall markets are smaller, but when trying to compare them with Xbox, it's giving Xbox too much credit in Japan.

1%, blah blah blah. ;) As the Wiki page shows, the countries you're seeing these tiny numbers out of are actually economic powerhouses in the grand scheme of things. China is a huge fucking economy, and look how few Bones they've bought. Expecting each of these other countries to buy half as many as China or Japan did is kinda ridiculous.
It does a have a huge economy, problem is that until 2014, the dedicated console market was literally banned in China. This was a starting market officially, and facing a ton of problems (grey market already buying these unofficially, large prices for consoles, general lack of software, albeit it is getting better) it is a feat that China was able to sell more consoles through official channels in less time than Japan.

These other countries have had official console markets for years, and the 360 was able to establish a fanbase in those countries. Selling half of Japan seems like the least they would do, seeing as they are all Tier 2 countries. If MS were separating these markets launch dates by potential sales factor, launching in 27 countries that do less than half of Japan doesn't seem that smart (totaling ~350k (average of ~13k per country or ~20% of Japan) not including Japan+China, and according to you that seems like a lot). Might as well not send that stock and instead prioritize those systems for something else in the other Tier 1 countries.

Let's say you bought your Bone in September, activated it at McD's so you could install v2.5 or whatever of the OS so you could play your retail copy of Gears at home. Then your mom gets you a copy of CoD for Christmas, which requires OS2.73. You'll be unable to play your new game until you go online and update the OS. Unlike PS4, PS3, 360, and even PS2, game discs can't contain an OS update, even if the game needs it to launch. The only way to get OS updates and play "current" content is to phone home to MS.
Huge oversight if game disks can't contain OS updates.

Also, just found this on the support site. You can use a USB to update the console, however you need to go online for the NXOE, but I don't know any games that require that update.
 
Jan 27, 2007
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Not making shit up here.
Well, yeah, for Canada :p

And you have to take into account the fact that 2014 had a very big increase in the US due to the crazy price cuts and bundles around the holidays.
If you compare Germany vs US year-by-year, it's more or less flat anyway. But Germany is the exception, not the norm.
 
Feb 24, 2014
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Well, yeah, for Canada :p
Well... shut up!

But really, that is what Canada is usually in relation to the US. I think the most recent split for NA was like 88% US, 10% Canada, and 2% everything else. Can't remember if I read this on Gaf or somewhere else.

And you have to take into account the fact that 2014 had a very big increase in the US due to the crazy price cuts and bundles around the holidays.
If you compare Germany vs US year-by-year, it's more or less flat anyway. But Germany is the exception, not the norm.
Let's see what France has to say about this in a few hours.



In 2015, 3rd parties published more packaged games for the VITA than they did the Wii U.
Vita got more than the Wii U.

Jesus.
 
Nov 13, 2014
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LTD 2013

US = 1817K
UK+Germany+France+Canada = ~735k

Ratio is 71:29

LTD 2014

US = 6187K
UK+Germany+France+Canada = ~2692k

Ratio is 70:30

LTD 2015

US = 11131K
UK+Germany+France+Canada = ~4554k

Ratio is 71:29 (thanks to rounding, both are technically under 71:eek:ver 29, which is better than the 2013 ratio)

Not making shit up here. And for France, if it were flat or up by the same percentage as Germany, the ratio is still 70:30, but it is very close to staying at the 69:31 ratio in 2014 if Canada strayed away from just being 8% of the US.

With those numbers where would we look at LTD WW sales?

Thats roughly 15.7Mil units accounted for, and probably at least 90% of WW sales?
 
Mar 26, 2013
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Well... shut up!

But really, that is what Canada is usually in relation to the US. I think the most recent split for NA was like 88% US, 10% Canada, and 2% everything else. Can't remember if I read this on Gaf or somewhere else.
Isn't the "10%" relation for the whole market, not XBO? For all we know PS4:XBO ratio in Canada could be very different than US. Heck maybe XBO is actually winning in Canada (lower price).
 
Oct 19, 2015
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26 seems way too high for the Wii U for some reason.

And the Vita number seems really weird considering Vita sections in most retail stores have more or less dried up.
Vita exists solely on niche Japanese games localized for a small but dedicated hardcore fanbase. But that has a really tough time at retail stores outside of GameStop. I believe major retailers like Target have completely eliminated their Vita sections, for example.

Wii U on the other hand exists at retail because of Nintendo's 1st-party lineup.

Nintendo the software publisher continues to enjoy one of the largest marketshares of any software publisher because of its broad, diversified range of compelling best-sellers. This buoys the retail market and allows a few other children's games to proliferate, albeit at a much smaller rate than the glory days of its predecessor.
 
Feb 16, 2010
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Mars
Fixed. Dumb error in my previous sheet.



PSV
BlazBlue: Chrono Phantasma EXTEND
Child of Light
Code Realize: Guardian of Rebirth
Corpse Party: Blood Drive
Criminal Girls: Invite Only
Danganronpa Another Episode: Ultra Despair Girls
Dengeki Bunko: Fighting Climax
Dungeon Travelers 2: The Royal Library & The Monster Seal
Earth Defense Force 2: Invaders From Planet Space
Farming Simulator 16
Hyperdevotion Noire: Goddess Black Heart
Hyperdimension Neptunia Re;Birth2: Sisters Generation
Hyperdimension Neptunia Re;Birth3: V Generation
Hyperdimension Neptunia U: Action Unleashed
LEGO Ninjago: Shadow of Ronin
LEGO: Jurassic World
Lost Dimension
Norn9: Var Commons
Operation Abyss: New Tokyo Legacy
Persona 4: Dancing All Night
SpongeBob HeroPants
Steins Gate
Superbeat: Xonic
Sword Art Online: Lost Song
Terraria
Tetris Ultimate
The Legend Of Heroes: Trails Of Cold Steel
Tokyo Twilight Ghost Hunters
Toukiden: Kiwami
XBLAZE: Lost Memories

Wii U
Adventure Time: Finn & Jake Investigations
Barbie & Her Sisters: Puppy Rescue
Disney Infinity 3.0
Guitar Hero: Live
Just Dance 2016
Just Dance: Disney Party 2
Kung Fu Panda: Showdown of Legendary Legends
Legend of Kay Anniversary
Lego Dimensions
LEGO: Jurassic World
Monster High: New Ghoul In School
Rodea: The Sky Soldier
Shovel Knight
Skylanders SuperChargers
Snoopy's Grand Adventure
 
Sep 4, 2015
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Fixed. Dumb error in my previous sheet.



PSV
BlazBlue: Chrono Phantasma EXTEND
Child of Light
Code Realize: Guardian of Rebirth
Corpse Party: Blood Drive
Criminal Girls: Invite Only
Danganronpa Another Episode: Ultra Despair Girls
Dengeki Bunko: Fighting Climax
Dungeon Travelers 2: The Royal Library & The Monster Seal
Earth Defense Force 2: Invaders From Planet Space
Farming Simulator 16
Hyperdevotion Noire: Goddess Black Heart
Hyperdimension Neptunia Re;Birth2: Sisters Generation
Hyperdimension Neptunia Re;Birth3: V Generation
Hyperdimension Neptunia U: Action Unleashed
LEGO Ninjago: Shadow of Ronin
LEGO: Jurassic World
Lost Dimension
Norn9: Var Commons
Operation Abyss: New Tokyo Legacy
Persona 4: Dancing All Night
SpongeBob HeroPants
Steins Gate
Superbeat: Xonic
Sword Art Online: Lost Song
Terraria
Tetris Ultimate
The Legend Of Heroes: Trails Of Cold Steel
Tokyo Twilight Ghost Hunters
Toukiden: Kiwami
XBLAZE: Lost Memories

Wii U
Adventure Time: Finn & Jake Investigations
Barbie & Her Sisters: Puppy Rescue
Disney Infinity 3.0
Guitar Hero: Live
Just Dance 2016
Just Dance: Disney Party 2
Kung Fu Panda: Showdown of Legendary Legends
Legend of Kay Anniversary
Lego Dimensions
LEGO: Jurassic World
Monster High: New Ghoul In School
Rodea: The Sky Soldier
Shovel Knight
Skylanders SuperChargers
Snoopy's Grand Adventure
Only 9 more than the Wii...
 
Feb 24, 2014
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So France just got an update.

2013 US - 1817K
2014 US - 4370K
2015 US - 4944K

2014 x2.41 (2.405)
2015 x1.13 (1.131)

2013 FRA - 126K
2014 FRA - 290K
2015 FRA - 299K

2014 x2.30 (2.302)
2015 x1.03 (1.031)
 
Jun 2, 2013
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Isn't the "10%" relation for the whole market, not XBO? For all we know PS4:XBO ratio in Canada could be very different than US. Heck maybe XBO is actually winning in Canada (lower price).
I think the PS4 is getting hurt a bit by it's higher price in Canada, but it's probably still beating the xbox one, but most likely not by much.
 
Aug 31, 2013
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Yay, fresh numbers! Now we can skip ahead a bit. :)

It doesn't, but come on. 1000. I don't like doing even 500 word essays for school.
I'd rather write 2000 words than hafta draw a single picture. :p

I changed it because I thought it would provide another look at the US:Tier 1 countries. If we compared the US and the next 4 biggest countries by their LTD at the end of the year, it basically accomplishes the goal we wanted, which is how the ratios have changed in the favor of the US.
What we were doing before was way better though, because we were actually measuring their actual sales pace. You basically just drew your own lines connecting what we know to be the past with what you imagine to be the present, and then measured the gaps in your made-up lines. See the problem there?

Anyway, we've got some legitimate end-of-2015 results now, so let's see what they tell us, shall we? Let's start by recapping the US:
Code:
US:
   2013: 1817k
2014-15: 9314k
     x5.126
So that's our baseline for post-launch performance; over 2014-2015, US sold Bones equal to a bit more than 5x what they sold in the launch quarter. So now we look at the other countries and see if their post-launch pace is higher, and they're stealing share from the US, or if it's lower, and they're losing share to the US. So let's take a look at Germany, since they were kind enough to share first.
Code:
Germany:
   2013: 100k
2014-15: 500k
     x5.000 (97.5% of US pace; 100.4% c. 3/15)
So we see that Germany is down against the US, and somewhat significantly from the cunt-hair lead they had ~3 quarters ago, so during those three quarters, they were actually pacing below the 97.5% they currently sit at. They'll likely be even further off the pace by the end of 2016. Now let's take a look at France.
Code:
France:
   2013: 126k
2014-15: 589k
     x4.675 (91.2% of US pace; 95.4% through '14)
So well behind the US pace, and again, a good drop from what they were doing when last we looked.

Okay, this next one is gonna sting a bit, so you may wanna smoke a bowl, or do a shot, or whatever it is you do. Ready? Okay then, the UK…

Okay, you have Bone at 2.5M there, and I've seen a lot of folks saying <2.5M. Problem is, that's actually a GAFstimate based on another GAFstimate, and neither one of them were very solid in the first place. Okay, in June, GAF estimated that PS4 had a 500k lead, and when total UK sales of 5.5M through 2015 were announced, it was decided that the most reasonable assumption was that PS4 maintained that 500k lead, because there was nothing to indicate Bone was suddenly outselling it to cause the gap to shrink.

But to expect the gap to remain an absolute 500k units is kind of a terrible assumption. In the US, PS4 was outselling Bone every month, and consequently, the gap was increasing every month in terms of units. US gap coming out of June was 775k, but it was 1293k coming out of December, which is a pretty substantial increase. So the more reasonable assumption is that rather than remaining 500k units behind PS4, Bone instead remained near the 40.4% market share it had coming out of 2013.

So it actually seems likely the gap would've increased from where it was in June, at least in terms of units. So, >500k, right? Well, let's take another look at the 500k figure and how it was derived…

Okay, on May 5th, 2015, MCV reported that "over the weekend," PS4 has passed 2M in the UK. We'll just assume 2M exactly, to make things easy. Reporting periods run Sun-Sat in the UK, so this would've been the sales week ending May 2nd, 2015. They also reported that PS4 took 42 weeks to hit 1M, and 75 weeks to hit 2M.

Then MCV reported that UK combined was at 3.7M as of June 20th, and GAF figured PS4 would be at 2.1M by then, leaving 1.6M for Bone, and a gap of 500k. Seems fairly reasonable, but there were actually seven weeks of sales from May 3rd through June 20th. PS4 probably sold a bit more than 100k during that time…

We can actually get a fairly good idea of how much it did sell from the initial MCV report though. It took PS4 33 weeks to go from 1M to 2M, which is a pace of 30.3k/week. If we assume it maintained that pace in the intervening 7 weeks, that would put it at ~2212k as of June 20th. That leaves only 1488 for Bone, unfortunately, making the gap 724k at that point, and giving Bone 40.2% of the market. So as I predicted, the Bone is maintaining it's UK share, rather than some specific gap of X units. And that gap was probably already over 700k mid-June rather than only 500k.

So I'd say the best way to guesstimate where Bone is for year-end '15, we should just go based on a market share of ~40%. If its share stabilized after having dropped to 40.2%, then that would give Bone 2212k of the 5.5M combined through 2015. If their share had dropped a bit more to 40.0%, that'd leave them 2200k.
Code:
UK:
   2013: 364k
2014-15: 1848 (2.21M; 40.2% share)
     x5.077 (99.0% of US pace)
2014-15: 1836 (2.20M; 40.0% share)
     x5.044 (98.4% of US pace)
So once again, off the US pace.

"UK share should be 40.4% at least! No way it's down! You said yourself it should stay the same!!"

Not precisely what I said, but since you asked…
Code:
UK:
   2013: 364k
2014-15: 1858 (2.22M; 40.4% share)
     x5.104 (99.6% of US pace)
So, down. /comfort

So, our indicators are down, down, and down. We don't have anything recent from Spain, but it seems pretty likely they'll continue to be sharply down. So now can we agree that it's likely that T1 has lost share compared to launch?

But the thing here is that when looking at that $3.2B in Japan, almost none of it is thanks to Xbox. That's all thanks to Nintendo and Sony (as hardware devs), so trying to use the spending on what is almost 100% Sony and Nintendo and saying that other countries can't spend even half of what was purchased from Japan in terms of Xbox is a bit extreme.
"If Japan doesn't have any interest in the Bone, then Greece must have," doesn't strike you as kind of a weak argument? Even if they are twice as interested in the Bone per capita or whatever, they still have a tiny, tiny amount of money to spend compared to Japan. Hell, look at India. Their population is huge and their GDP is actually like 40% of Japan's, and in three months they bought about 1500 Bones. Not 1500k, just 1500. You're vastly overestimating T2.

Rounding up or down 10% or 2-3 million doesn't seem like a thing AMD would do for console shipments. If ~20m is thrown out there, I'm more inclined to think 19m-21m than anything past those.
Well, they said "over 50M sold," and we're reasonably sure it's actually over 53M, right? Doesn't sound like they're worried about being super duper accurate here. Hell, their agreements with Sony and MS may prevent them from being so.

It's kinda crazy how little support Wii U gets. Hopefully NX can turn that around for them.
 
Feb 24, 2014
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I'd rather write 2000 words than hafta draw a single picture. :p
I love drawing! Don't do it much anymore though.

What we were doing before was way better though, because we were actually measuring their actual sales pace. You basically just drew your own lines connecting what we know to be the past with what you imagine to be the present, and then measured the gaps in your made-up lines. See the problem there?
Was just another way of looking at it and trying to possibly get another country in there.

Okay, this next one is gonna sting a bit, so you may wanna smoke a bowl, or do a shot, or whatever it is you do. Ready? Okay then, the UK&#8230;
I do some light jogging.

Okay, you have Bone at 2.5M there, and I've seen a lot of folks saying <2.5M. Problem is, that's actually a GAFstimate based on another GAFstimate, and neither one of them were very solid in the first place. ... So it actually seems likely the gap would've increased from where it was in June, at least in terms of units. So, >500k, right? Well, let's take another look at the 500k figure and how it was derived&#8230;
I don't have the Xbox One in the UK at 2.5m. I think the gap did grow, but not as wildly as the US did.

Okay, on May 5th, 2015, MCV reported that "over the weekend," PS4 has passed 2M in the UK. We'll just assume 2M exactly, to make things easy. Reporting periods run Sun-Sat in the UK, so this would've been the sales week ending May 2nd, 2015. They also reported that PS4 took 42 weeks to hit 1M, and 75 weeks to hit 2M.

Then MCV reported that UK combined was at 3.7M as of June 20th, and GAF figured PS4 would be at 2.1M by then, leaving 1.6M for Bone, and a gap of 500k. Seems fairly reasonable, but there were actually seven weeks of sales from May 3rd through June 20th. PS4 probably sold a bit more than 100k during that time&#8230;

We can actually get a fairly good idea of how much it did sell from the initial MCV report though. It took PS4 33 weeks to go from 1M to 2M, which is a pace of 30.3k/week. If we assume it maintained that pace in the intervening 7 weeks, that would put it at ~2212k as of June 20th. That leaves only 1488 for Bone, unfortunately, making the gap 724k at that point, and giving Bone 40.2% of the market. So as I predicted, the Bone is maintaining it's UK share, rather than some specific gap of X units. And that gap was probably already over 700k mid-June rather than only 500k.
That 33 weeks between 1m and 2m included the 2014 holiday season, so assuming that in the slow spring months the pace would continue to be around 30k a week is stretching it. Around half of that makes more sense in the off season then trying to continue a weekly average that is bolstered by holiday weeks.

In fact, it would make more sense to look at how long it took the PS4 to reach 1m from the end of 2013, seeing as that does not include holiday weeks.

It took 42 weeks to hit 1m. 6 of those weeks are from 2013, and the PS4 did 530k in that time period.

So in the next 36 weeks, it sold an average of ~13k units per week.

This also includes in early 2014 where the PS4 was experiencing some supply issues, but that was rectified by mid 2014 at the latest.

So ~13k-~15k makes more sense to be happening in those 7 weeks after the 2m announcement.

So ~2.1m by the time it was reported that PS4+XB1 hit 3.7m and that would mean 1.6m for the XB1. So a share of ~43.2%, not 40.

So I'd say the best way to guesstimate where Bone is for year-end '15, we should just go based on a market share of ~40%. If its share stabilized after having dropped to 40.2%, then that would give Bone 2212k of the 5.5M combined through 2015. If their share had dropped a bit more to 40.0%, that'd leave them 2200k.
But since I just gave a better way of figuring out the One's market share, let's use that here.

If it stayed at 43.2%, that means by the end of 2015, Xbox One sold ~2.38m, or 2.4m. A base share of 43% is ~2.37, so still very close to 2.4m

Will be borrowing this.
Code:
UK:
   2013: 364k
2014-15: 2016k (2.38M; 43.2% share)
     x5.538 (108% of US pace)
2014-15: 2006k (2.37M; 40.0% share)
     x5.511 (107.5% of US pace)
"UK share should be 40.4% at least! No way it's down! You said yourself it should stay the same!!"
Actually it should be a bit over 40%.

So, our indicators are down, down, and down. We don't have anything recent from Spain, but it seems pretty likely they'll continue to be sharply down. So now can we agree that it's likely that T1 has lost share compared to launch?
UK more than likely being up, Germany being down but essentially flat, and France losing pace the farthest, but still being <10%, yeah sure, Tier 1 lost some share, I thought this was one of the few points we agreed on.

"If Japan doesn't have any interest in the Bone, then Greece must have," doesn't strike you as kind of a weak argument? Even if they are twice as interested in the Bone per capita or whatever, they still have a tiny, tiny amount of money to spend compared to Japan. Hell, look at India. Their population is huge and their GDP is actually like 40% of Japan's, and in three months they bought about 1500 Bones. Not 1500k, just 1500. You're vastly overestimating T2.
Xbox One's were Amazon exclusive in India. I don't know if that changed since then, but that is pretty bad. Thanks for that info.

Well, they said "over 50M sold," and we're reasonably sure it's actually over 53M, right? Doesn't sound like they're worried about being super duper accurate here. Hell, their agreements with Sony and MS may prevent them from being so.
>50m was in reference to their Semi Custom SoCs. That's just a milestone announcement. ~20 million was referring to how far ahead PS4+XB1 are to 360+PS3
 
Aug 31, 2013
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I love drawing! Don't do it much anymore though.
Oh? If I ever get around to making a game, maybe I'll hit you up for some icons and stuff. <3

Was just another way of looking at it and trying to possibly get another country in there.
That one was completely made up!! :p

I do some light jogging.
Well, better for you than drinking, I suppose.

I don't have the Xbox One in the UK at 2.5m. I think the gap did grow, but not as wildly as the US did.
My bad; skimmed.

That 33 weeks between 1m and 2m included the 2014 holiday season, so assuming that in the slow spring months the pace would continue to be around 30k a week is stretching it. Around half of that makes more sense in the off season then trying to continue a weekly average that is bolstered by holiday weeks.

In fact, it would make more sense to look at how long it took the PS4 to reach 1m from the end of 2013, seeing as that does not include holiday weeks.

It took 42 weeks to hit 1m. 6 of those weeks are from 2013, and the PS4 did 530k in that time period.

So in the next 36 weeks, it sold an average of ~13k units per week.

This also includes in early 2014 where the PS4 was experiencing some supply issues, but that was rectified by mid 2014 at the latest.

So ~13k-~15k makes more sense to be happening in those 7 weeks after the 2m announcement.
Hmm, perhaps. Yeah, a 30k average is probably too high, but 15k seems kinda low, and Bone's share going from 40.7% to 43.2% in less than 18 months seems like kind of a crazy shift. It went from 47.6% to 47.5% over the same period in the US. So, yeah. My guess would be closer to 30k than 15k.

I wish we could just get some decent numbers from the UK; I really don't see much point in making accurate measurements of our guesswork. I'm more inclined to simply ignore it for that reason. I'm happy to include data from any Tier 1 country we can lay our hands on — including Spain… — but we're really not all that great at guessing, I suspect. lol At least, not accurately enough for the purposes of this exercise.

UK more than likely being up, Germany being down but essentially flat, and France losing pace the farthest, but still being <10%, yeah sure, Tier 1 lost some share, I thought this was one of the few points we agreed on.
Oh, do we we? I initially thought we did, but lately it felt like you were trying to back away from that. So where do you think the US is at now, just for T1?

Xbox One's were Amazon exclusive in India. I don't know if that changed since then, but that is pretty bad. Thanks for that info.
I suspect that was more a matter of retailers being unwilling to carry it than some clever marketing scheme by MS. ;)

>50m was in reference to their Semi Custom SoCs. That's just a milestone announcement. ~20 million was referring to how far ahead PS4+XB1 are to 360+PS3
If they're referring to their own product, it seems like that's all the more reason for them to be accurate, but they lowballed it by 3M. I mean, you're not suggesting 3M consoles were sold without the SoC, right? In any case, this seems way too vague to be particularly useful to us.
 
Feb 24, 2014
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Oh? If I ever get around to making a game, maybe I'll hit you up for some icons and stuff. <3
You could probably find people here on GAF that would do a much better job than I would.
That one was completely made up!! :p
I admit, my methods were a tad bit unorthodox.
Well, better for you than drinking, I suppose.
I'm not about that life.
Hmm, perhaps. Yeah, a 30k average is probably too high, but 15k seems kinda low, and Bone's share going from 40.7% to 43.2% in less than 18 months seems like kind of a crazy shift. It went from 47.6% to 47.5% over the same period in the US. So, yeah. My guess would be closer to 30k than 15k.
Well, let's look at April, May, and June 2015 in the US for the PS4.

April 2015: 174k

Weekly Average: 174k / 4 weeks = 43,500

May 2015: 152k

Weekly Average: 152k / 4 weeks = 38,000

June 2015: 365k (This includes the Batman launch, whereas the UK is before it)

Weekly Average: 365k / 5 weeks = 73,000

Now for June, there were 2 Bat bundles available for the final 2 weeks of the month, a regular edition and a limited one. We actually got numbers for the limited one, so if I remove those, it should give us a clearer picture.

June 2015: 244k (Limited Bats bundle = 121k)

Weekly Average: 244k / 5 weeks = 48,800

~15k seems far more likely for the PS4 at this point in time. Anything above that is putting it pretty close to how much the US sells on average.

And seeing as I already calced what its weekly average was in the first 36 weeks, I guess we can compare a bit more with the US, and even include the weeks it took the PS4 to reach 2m, however, the comparison won't be exactly 1:1, as NPD only release monthly figures. I will be getting as close as possible as can with the US, though.

First 36 (34) weeks of 2014

US Jan 2014 - Aug 2014 (34): 1953k

Weekly Average: 1953k / 34 weeks = ~57,400

UK First 36 weeks: 470k

Weekly Average: 470k / 36 weeks = ~13,100

UK weekly average is ~23% of the US weekly.

Next 33 weeks after 1m announcement

US September 2014 - April 2015 (35): 3776k

Weekly Average: 3776k / 35 weeks = ~107,900

UK next 33 weeks: 1000k

Weekly Average: 1000k / 33 weeks = ~30,300

UK weekly average is ~28% of the US weekly.

So the UK is above 20% and below 30% of the US weekly average, with the off months being closer to 20 and the holidays (which 2014 was much better for the PS4 than in the US in terms of competing with the Xbox One in price) being closer to 30, I'd say a very clean middle ground during those 7 weeks would 25% of the US average.

So May (38k) would be ~9,500 and June (48.8k) would be ~12,200.

4 weeks of 9,500 and 3 weeks of 12,200 would mean ~75k.

UK pulling off more than this would be questionable as nothing happened in this period exclusively in the UK for it to get closer to the US weekly average.

Basically what I was already saying. ~2.1m for the PS4.

Also, for me, the percentage share the Xbox One has is going down at this point from what I think the split was when we got the 3.3m announcement.
I wish we could just get some decent numbers from the UK; I really don't see much point in making accurate measurements of our guesswork. I'm more inclined to simply ignore it for that reason. I'm happy to include data from any Tier 1 country we can lay our hands on — including Spain… — but we're really not all that great at guessing, I suspect. lol At least, not accurately enough for the purposes of this exercise.
I think we are getting there. You just have to believe!
Oh, do we we? I initially thought we did, but lately it felt like you were trying to back away from that. So where do you think the US is at now, just for T1?
62:38
I suspect that was more a matter of retailers being unwilling to carry it than some clever marketing scheme by MS. ;)
Looking in that thread you linked, it looked like retailers were carrying XB1 software (albeit short supply), but because the hardware was an online retailer exclusive, retailers couldn't even sell the SW. If they were willing to take in SW, I would think they would also like to sell the HW that is needed.

Jesus Christ MS. So I just looked it up, and according to gadgets.ndtv.com, it's STILL Amazon exclusive, but now if you want to purchase offline, you can buy it from the MS store. There must be a deal with Amazon or something, that's just crazy.
If they're referring to their own product, it seems like that's all the more reason for them to be accurate, but they lowballed it by 3M. I mean, you're not suggesting 3M consoles were sold without the SoC, right? In any case, this seems way too vague to be particularly useful to us.
Eh, I look at it like a milestone announcement. "We sold more than 50m!". This was letting investors know that, hey, AMD is actually selling shit. They could've gone for a more specific number, but I think they did that anyway with the comment on the PS4+XB1 shipping around 20m more than 360+PS3.