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[MidnightScott]

This is a next gen DS right, not just another modification...right? :X

 

[Deku]

Considering how things worked out between DS and PSP, would it be reasonable to expect Nintendo to be the one trying to be more like their competitor? If DS level has worked fine the last few years, and something not far beyond the PSP would be accepted for the successor, why go far enough beyond that it would further increase development costs?

That’s extrapolation based on magical thinking. Much like many die hards pretended the N64 was going to catch up to the PSX because that’s what happened with the SNES after Nintendo’s arrogance allowed Sega to amass a massive lead worldwide. It’s extremely unlikely we’ll get a PSP/DS matchup again. Sony has a lot of problems yet to resolve but they are not that dumb. Nor will Nintendo ‘stick 4 ARM7’s and call it a day’ We might see more overclocked ARM 7s taped together if they decide to redesign the DS yet again, but it certainly won’t be in the successor.

The silliness and sarcastic replies based on their current strategy aside, a question that needs to be answered is what this successor is intended to do. To play games, is one. But with mobile platforms becoming more and more important, I see them also playing the very obvious incumbent, and incumbents usually scale up to protect their position, not go off the wall in major strategy rethink. My personal conclusion is that it will be a powerful successful able to withstand multiple challenges from non game machines trying for a piece of the pie. And some of you may come to other conclusions. But certainly extrapolation of the past and projecting it into the future is one sure fire way to get it wrong.

 

[gerg]

Considering how things worked out between DS and PSP, would it be reasonable to expect Nintendo to be the one trying to be more like their competitor? If DS level has worked fine the last few years, and something not far beyond the PSP would be accepted for the successor, why go far enough beyond that it would further increase development costs?

Because although Japanese support for the DS has been phenomenal, there has been a dearth of support for the system from the West (a fact often overlooked), most likely because Western developers (rightly) believe that there isn't a market for the types of games that they would like to develop, most likely because the demographic they would want to develop for doesn't exist on the DS. Why is this? The PSP.

I don't mean to suggest that Nintendo should give up on the touchscreen interface, and other features of the DS' design that play into the values of the expanded audience, but that if they are to want to attract this developer support they will need to attract these developers' preferred demographics. This will necessitate making steps to satisfy the values of these consumers - namely, graphical fidelity and/or online infrastructure. Perhaps we will see what is essentially a widescreen, pumped-up DS with a good onlinee infrastructure next generation. (I have always maintained that Nintendo has been good enough to achieve the latter, so the issue is a question of motivation.)

As you can see, my hypothesis is dependent on Nintendo wanting to go after third-party developer support. Although the matter may be less urgent than the situation of the Wii in regards to the PS3 and 360 (and their successors), doing so will probably become more significant in the future, such that it is the most profitable plan of action.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

I thought you said the 64 was an anomoly?

So they spent some bucks on the SNES too?

Which is it?

This gen is the anomoly.

I said it was the most expensive part.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

That’s extrapolation based on magical thinking. Much like many die hards pretended the N64 was going to catch up to the PSX because that’s what happened with the SNES after Nintendo’s arrogance allowed Sega to amass a massive lead worldwide. It’s extremely unlikely we’ll get a PSP/DS matchup again. Sony has a lot of problems yet to resolve but they are not that dumb. Nor will Nintendo ‘stick 4 ARM7’s and call it a day’ We might see more overclocked ARM 7s taped together if they decide to redesign the DS yet again, but it certainly won’t be in the successor.

The silliness and sarcastic replies based on their current strategy aside, a question that needs to be answered is what this successor is intended to do. To play games, is one. But with mobile platforms becoming more and more important, I see them also playing the very obvious incumbent, and incumbents usually scale up to protect their position, not go off the wall in major strategy rethink. My personal conclusion is that it will be a powerful successful able to withstand multiple challenges from non game machines trying for a piece of the pie. And some of you may come to other conclusions. But certainly extrapolation of the past and projecting it into the future is one sure fire way to get it wrong.

Because although Japanese support for the DS has been phenomenal, there has been a dearth of support for the system from the West (a fact often overlooked), most likely because Western developers (rightly) believe that there isn't a market for the types of games that they would like to develop, most likely because the demographic they would want to develop for doesn't exist on the DS. Why is this? The PSP.

I don't mean to suggest that Nintendo should give up on the touchscreen interface, and other features of the DS' design that play into the values of the expanded audience, but that if they are to want to attract this developer support they will need to attract these developers' preferred demographics. This will necessitate making steps to satisfy the values of these consumers - namely, graphical fidelity and/or online infrastructure. Perhaps we will see what is essentially a widescreen, pumped-up DS with a good onlinee infrastructure next generation. (I have always maintained that Nintendo has been good enough to achieve the latter, so the issue is a question of motivation.)

As you can see, my hypothesis is dependent on Nintendo wanting to go after third-party developer support. Although the matter may be less urgent than the situation of the Wii in regards to the PS3 and 360 (and their successors), doing so will probably become more significant in the future, such that it is the most profitable plan of action.

Great posts. 5 stars!

 

[gofreak]

Their CEO showed a piece of junk and tried to convince everyone it was the Fermi board that's how far Nvidia is willing to go.

I don't think Nintendo would use an Nvidia part, imagine the change in development for them. They're all about re-using stuff so they'll probably go with ATi or a cheap ARM solution again for the obvious reasons. A contract like that would keep Nvidia green though. I think most of the Nvidia fans seem to forget that ATi isn't making inroads because of performance or a car in DiRT 2 but because Nvidia pissed off companies like Dell, Asus and XFX with defective parts. I doubt that Nintendo of all companies wants to risk production problems and faulty hardware and signs with Nvidia.

I don't see how going with ATi or another such company would be any less of a development shift.

If they want to step up into that range of capability they'll probably have to go with one of them.

As for reliability - Nintendo would doubtless have control of their own manufacturing and QA for this. nVidia cutting corners on manufacturing of their own chips (if they have been) ought not to spell problems for anyone licensing their design and overseeing their own manufacturing. Sony doesn't seem to have had problems here, for example.

I'm not advocating nVidia as the best choice (maybe they would be, maybe they wouldn't - I honestly don't know enough to say), but I don't see why they should be ruled out vs any of their peers because of the things you mentioned.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Because although Japanese support for the DS has been phenomenal, there has been a dearth of support for the system from the West (a fact often overlooked), most likely because Western developers (rightly) believe that there isn't a market for the types of games that they would like to develop, most likely because the demographic they would want to develop for doesn't exist on the DS. Why is this? The PSP.

If they can accomplish more than PSP+ for cheap then I can see them not turning it down, but I reeeally don't see the western third-party PSP support as something desirable enough they're going to give it much weight in the decision.

 

[Obsolete Observation]

2010 would be pretty sweet. Very excited to see what will come out for a more powerful Nintendo Handheld. Particularly Pokemon.

 

[Akai]

I don't mean to suggest that Nintendo should give up on the touchscreen interface, and other features of the DS' design that play into the values of the expanded audience, but that if they are to want to attract this developer support they will need to attract these developers' preferred demographics.

This will never happen...Why? Because it's Nintendo...

Last gen it was "kiddy" and this gen it's "casual"...Next gen developers will probably come up with a new retarded label for them...

 

[[Nintex]]

This will never happen...Why? Because it's Nintendo...

Last gen it was "kiddy" and this gen it's "casual"...Next gen developers will probably come up with a new retarded label for them...

They're too "gamey" , I'm calling it right now.

 

[gerg]

If they can accomplish more than PSP+ for cheap then I can see them not turning it down, but I reeeally don't see the western third-party PSP support as something desirable enough they're going to give it much weight in the decision.

It depends on how significant this support is. If it can bring them in lots of cash and compete against the PSP on the PSP's home turf, then Nintendo should most likely go for it. (Of course, this is not to say that they will.) Like most things, it's a "cost v risk" assessment: increase the technology too much, only for it to be ineffective, and you lose money; increase it too little, and you have wasted or missed an opportunity towards greater success. Knowing Nintendo's conservative side, however, it is understandable that they may prefer the latter over the former.

This will never happen...Why? Because it's Nintendo...

Last gen it was "kiddy" and this gen it's "casual"...Next gen developers will probably come up with a new retarded label for them...

I refuse to believe that third-parties have some irrational hatred or fear of Nintendo's platforms. I imagine that they approached the situation and analysed it into respect to their goals, and decided to do what they thought was best for them. Whether or not they should have developed for the Wii (and, to a lesser extent, the DS) is a matter of contention, but I don't think these developers' decisions boiled down to "Nintendo sucks!".

Of course, this is not to suggest that Nintendo would need only release the "right" product. To truly increase third-party support, they would have to fundamentally change some of the ways in which they deal with these developers - achieving this is more to do with infrastructure rather than technology.

(Considering what Nintendo could do, perhaps only releasing a souped-up DS2 would fit in with their conservative and/or complacent nature. :lol )

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

I don't believe this simplay based on the fact that news like this NEVER leaks from Nintendo or any Nintendo affiliated partner, especially this far from fruition.

Bullshit. Bullshit bullshit bullshit.

 

[Ogrekiller]

Do you want to play something like this in public?

"Yo Dawg, I heard you like monitors, so I put a monitor in your monitor so you can watch while you watch."

Yo Dawg, I'm really happy for you, I'm gonna let you finish, but Apple had the best monitors of all time.

 

[AzureNightmare]

Dragona, you seem awfully eager to discredit this rumor all too quickly. Why?

 

[Fio]

NDS has plenty of western third party support. It just doesn't happen to be the the kind of support that we "core gamers" want. But for Nintendo it doesn't matter if the money is coming from some "great-western-TP-developer" or some Imagine game.

 

[chrislowe]

so.. how powerfull does a gpu really need to be to play quake 3 in 35fps?
guess the resolution isnt much higher then probably 480*320 ?

Doesnt sound that powerfull to me =)

A geforce2mx did 45+fps in quake3, and that at a higher resolution (800*600)

or do i miss something here?

 

[gerg]

NDS has plenty of western third party support. It just doesn't happen to be the the kind of support that we "core gamers" want. But for Nintendo it doesn't matter if the money is coming from some "great-western-TP-developer" or some Imagine game.

Such as...?

I think you overestimate the success of Ubisoft's "Imagine" series, and especially that of its other DS games. Even then - accepting this series as very successful and significant - Ubisoft is the only Western company that I can think of that has given consistent support for the DS.

 

[lyre]

Dragona, you seem awfully eager to discredit this rumor all too quickly. Why?

Because everyone should know the first thing on Nintendo Co.'s mind is always pure profit right out the gate if not almost immediately after (ie GC). And since releasing underpowered hardware filled their money bins at record speeds this gen, they have zero reason do more than that.

Not to mention that Nintendo has always been underpowered compared to the competition (with exception of the N64); even at the beginning. DK's arcade board was reused from unsold arcade units and the NES was almost a generation behind its closest competitor.

 

[Bluemercury]

There's a difference between an ARM7 and a Tegra. The ARM7 is so widespread that it'll always be dirt cheap.

You realise where I'm coming from right?

They spent more than 300 million in R&D for the sucessors to the ds and wii......

 

[Dra-Q]

2010 would be pretty sweet. Very excited to see what will come out for a more powerful Nintendo Handheld. Particularly Pokemon.

This, the DS will be 6 years old in 2010. I want my F-Zero GX2 for DS2 Nintendo ASAP!

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

Not to mention that Nintendo has always been underpowered compared to the competition (with exception of the N64);

and the Super Nintendo and Gamecube...

 

[Dragona Akehi]

Dragona, you seem awfully eager to discredit this rumor all too quickly. Why?

All I can say is, don't come crying to me when the DS successor is running off of some chewing gum and a twig.

 

[CTLance]

Chrislowe:
OpenPandoras Cortex A8 and SGX combo does quite a respectable job at rendering Q3A too. I think they recently hit 60fps, if I'm not mistaken. At 800x480. The last news I definitely remember was 40fps back in March.

However, Q3A isn't really that good of a benchmark for a chip. It's more of a basic "look, 3D works without a hitch" thing. The game is rather old, after all.

 

[Bluemercury]

Because everyone should know the first thing on Nintendo Co.'s mind is always pure profit right out the gate if not almost immediately after (ie GC). And since releasing underpowered hardware filled their money bins at record speeds this gen, they have zero reason do more than that.

Not to mention that Nintendo has always been underpowered compared to the competition (with exception of the N64); even at the beginning. DK's arcade board was reused from unsold arcade units and the NES was almost a generation behind its closest competitor.

Gamecube, snes and n64.....thats 3 high tech machines for you. For their time obviously.

 

[Somnid]

Such as...?

I think you overestimate the success of Ubisoft's "Imagine" series, and especially that of its other DS games. Even then - accepting this series as very successful and significant - Ubisoft is the only Western company that I can think of that has given consistent support for the DS.

Call of Duty, Guitar Hero, The Sims? Any big third party franchise since it launched?

 

[CTLance]

All I can say is, don't come crying to me when the DS successor is running off of some chewing gum and a twig.

ARM9+MBX confirmed.

 

[Durante]

or do i miss something here?

Well, one thing that should be remembered is that the GPU you're talking about had a TDP of around 10 Watts -- just the chip, not the whole card.

The Tegra SoC, including CPU, GPU, memory controller and various IO ports, consumes <1 Watt in the very highest-end configuration.

 

[Neo C.]

When it comes to Nintendo, a graphic discussion should always be a game budget discussion as well.

The DS is successful, because developers can make a decent game in nine months with a very small team, while a decent PSP game needs more money, more time and more people. A DS successor should be cheap to produce, and it should have a very simple architecture: The question isn't "what graphics can you create with it?", it's "what can you do (with it) in a short timeframe?" The chip they choose will based on the latter question.

 

[A Black Falcon]

and the Super Nintendo and Gamecube...

And the NES as well, in 1983 that was a huge leap over every other console out there!

No, before the Wii Nintendo consoles were not low-end power-wise. Their handhelds always have been, but that's because the handheld market has different demands from the major console one and power is not as important, other things like battery life are, and less powerful systems get better battery life.

 

[Durante]

When it comes to Nintendo, a graphic discussion should always be a game budget discussion as well.

As I've argued before, the idea of ultra-low-end hardware as a "budget/developer capability equalizer" is completely unsustainable in the long term -- and, more importantly, doesn't make any sense even now. In fact, the differences in developer capability and budget are already very plain even on the Wii.

 

[blu]

so.. how powerfull does a gpu really need to be to play quake 3 in 35fps?
guess the resolution isnt much higher then probably 480*320 ?

Doesnt sound that powerfull to me =)

a mid-low-end SGX can easilly do that, but that's irrelevant to the discussion in this thread.

 

[Log4Girlz]

Great sales don't last forever, and Nintendo has had a habit of releasing refreshed hardware or even full fledged successors while the iron is still hot.

Having said that, once the DS' true successor is announced, it will be minimally as powerful as the PSP. There seems to be an attitude of disbelief that Nintendo may put any sort of competent hardware in any of their systems. The Wii and DS were successful due to innovative gimmicks...gimmicks which will be old hat by the time their successors are released. So I wouldn't be surprised if they start eyeing graphical power as a means of progressing forward. Though again at best they'll match their competition (WiiHD=Xbox 360+, DS2=PSP+ in power).

 

[gerg]

Call of Duty, Guitar Hero, The Sims? Any big third party franchise since it launched?

I don't want to play the game of "move back the goalposts until there's no genuine 'big support' left", but I just don't feel that the games you mention are representative of genuine developer interest in the DS. This is not to say that these games certainly aren't big - I remember a report stating that CoD Modern Warfare sold around 400,000 copies on the DS, and Wikipedia informs me that the Guitar Hero: On Tour series has achieved over one million units in sales - but that outside of ports of big name IPs, the thriving environment of support that you seen in Japan in regards to the DS (and in the West in regards to the 360 and PS3) simply isn't there. My point is that to find the true measure of developer support you need to look at everything that isn't a big-brand IP.

Because everyone should know the first thing on Nintendo Co.'s mind is always pure profit right out the gate if not almost immediately after (ie GC). And since releasing underpowered hardware filled their money bins at record speeds this gen, they have zero reason do more than that.

I guess my point is that, as you have suggested, everything Nintendo does is a means to an end. As a result, I don't find it too hard to believe that Nintendo will happily change their strategy if it best suits their preferred results.

Perhaps we have become so accustomed to the way that things are now that we have forgotten the way things were. Prior to the DS and the Wii, Nintendo happily competed directly with the PS2 and the Xbox in terms of graphical fidelity, before undergoing a huge internal change in direction and appealing to the expanded audience. If Nintendo were so willing to do so much for extra profit (and I would want to stress the profitability of Nintendo during the GC-era here) five years ago, why is it so unreasonable to expect them to do the same again soon?

Not to mention that Nintendo has always been underpowered compared to the competition (with exception of the N64 and the GC); even at the beginning. DK's arcade board was reused from unsold arcade units and the NES was almost a generation behind its closest competitor.

Fixed?

 

[Neo C.]

As I've argued before, the idea of ultra-low-end hardware as a "budget/developer capability equalizer" is completely unsustainable in the long term -- and, more importantly, doesn't make any sense even now. In fact, the differences in developer capability and budget are already very plain even on the Wii.

Let's just say it would already a huge step forward if an average small team could make a game with decent Xbox1 graphics based on the game development budget of an average DS game.

Handheld games need to be cheap to produce. If the teams are able to do it with decent hardware, Nintendo probably won't play the ultra-low-end tech card (because there won't be any advantage to do it). So far I still think it's the easiest way to keep the game development budget low.

Edit:

Having said that, once the DS' true successor is announced, it will be minimally as powerful as the PSP.

I believe this as well. A handheld producer can improve the hardware on different aspects besides the hardware power anyway, there's no need to focus mainly on gpu/cpu.

 

[M3d10n]

Sorry char, but I can't see the Tegra being used in 2010. 2012, maybe. But shit, I wouldn't put it past Nintendo to just stick four ARM7s in there and call it a day.

Argh!!! ARM9! The DS' main CPU is an ARM9, not an ARM7. Four pages, and no one got their darned facts straight, it's driving me nuts! Nuts I say!

You! You're doing this on purpose, aren't you?!

 

[1-D_FTW]

Well, one thing that should be remembered is that the GPU you're talking about had a TDP of around 10 Watts -- just the chip, not the whole card.

The Tegra SoC, including CPU, GPU, memory controller and various IO ports, consumes <1 Watt in the very highest-end configuration.

Which is what shocks me. That's just amazing when you think about what its performance is and what it's consuming.

 

[Fio]

Such as...?

I think you overestimate the success of Ubisoft's "Imagine" series, and especially that of its other DS games. Even then - accepting this series as very successful and significant - Ubisoft is the only Western company that I can think of that has given consistent support for the DS.

Such as a lot of shovelware.
I don't have the most up to date data, but as of January 2009, here are some numbers:

Life-to-date NDS software sales: 533,380,000 units

If at least 25% are from western TP devs (I believe it's much more), there's not only massive western TP support, they've also achieved massive success.

 

[radioheadrule83]

I don't believe this simplay based on the fact that news like this NEVER leaks from Nintendo or any Nintendo affiliated partner, especially this far from fruition.

Bullshit. Bullshit bullshit bullshit.

I seem to remember hearing a lot about ATI and IBM before Dolphin was announced, and we also heard about Hollywood and Broadway before Revolution was announced IIRC.

I'm inclined to believe there's truth in this. Nintendo is never complacent, they are always working on these things.

 

[Haunted]

Any fence-sitters not buying the DSi cause of this news?

rumour &#8800; news

 

[gimmmick]

I can see this fir psp2... not on a nintendo handheld.

 

[gerg]

Such as a lot of shovelware.
I don't have the most up to date data, but as of January 2009, here are some numbers:

Life-to-date NDS software sales: 533,380,000 units

If at least 25% are from western TP devs (I believe it's much more), there's not only massive western TP support, they've also achieved massive success.

I'm not trying to deny any measure of success, but the current measure of support. (I also don't think that quoting numbers from which we can gather nothing is especially helpful. You bring up "25%" as some kind of benchmark, but that would represent over 120 million units of sales for Western titles. I find it hard to believe that Western support for the DS has been anywhere near enough to even approach that figure. Either that, or we recognise that sales of Western titles have reached that figure but deny the significance of doing so.)

Also, are we really trying to paint the masses of shovelware on the DS (which I imagine sell rather poorly individually) as significant Western support for the system? If so, surely the Wii has plenty of significant Western support?

Clearly, I may need to define my concept of significance more clearly. I shall think the matter over, but what I want to suggest is a large number of titles which all sell relatively well - the kind of support from lower-tier developers that is the sign of healthy development. I would also like to highlight the limited nature of the DS' library. Puzzlers, RPGs and platformers it may have galore, but there is a noticeable lack of FPSs, third-person shooters, racing games and action-adventure games. It is in regards to games in these genres that I find it hard to believe claims of "good Western development support for the DS". (Such genres seem to be preferred by Western development.) In short, what I am looking for is a range of titles spread over a range of development costs featuring in a range of genres.

 

[Why would you do that?]

One thing I hope is that the new DS's graphics system will have a good 2D system like the current one (which is actually an extension of the GBA's in a way). Considering that the new DS might be backwards compatible, it likely will... I hope.

 

[blu]

Argh!!! ARM9! The DS' main CPU is an ARM9, not an ARM7. Four pages, and no one got their darned facts straight, it's driving me nuts! Nuts I say!

you somehow missed the one heath pack on your way.

 

[Durante]

One thing I hope is that the new DS's graphics system will have a good 2D system like the current one (which is actually an extension of the GBA's in a way). Considering that the new DS might be backwards compatible, it likely will... I hope.

Any semi-modern GPU can do more and better 2D than any specific "2D system" ever made. It's just a special case of 3D rendering.

 

[blu]

Any semi-modern GPU can do more and better 2D than any specific "2D system" ever made. It's just a special case of 3D rendering.

not true. multi-port vram was invented for a reason, you know.

 

[outunderthestars]

This, the DS will be 6 years old in 2010. I want my F-Zero GX2 for DS2 Nintendo ASAP!

I could See an TGS 2010 announcement, with a spring 2011 launch in Japan, followed by a Fall 2011 US release. I would say it all depends on what Apple and Sony do though....

 

[Durante]

not true. multi-port vram was invented for a reason, you know.

Sure, and that's why the very first 3D hardware was worse at 2D than earlier 2D hardware. But are you seriously arguing that there is dedicated 2D hardware better at anything than semi-modern GPUs?

 

[CTLance]

Argh!!! ARM9! The DS' main CPU is an ARM9, not an ARM7. Four pages, and no one got their darned facts straight, it's driving me nuts! Nuts I say!

You! You're doing this on purpose, aren't you?!

Well, not like I'm defending anyone or anything, but the other CPU is an ARM7. So saying that the DS is using an ARM7 core isn't wrong... it's just conveniently forgetting about the better half of the hardware.

For the lazy: 66MHz ARM9 + 33MHz ARM7 (the ARM7 can be underclocked to work as GBA CPU)

 

[Obsolete Observation]

Clearly, I may need to define my concept of significance more clearly

I think it'd be wise to point out the smaller developers who make games for the psn/xbla services would be more likely to develop for the DS if it were a more powerful system. A game like Castle Crashers can't be done for the DS, but if it could I would think that it would be something that Behemoth would consider doing. Likewise, Plants Vs Zombies is getting an iphone version created, but not a DS version(yet). If the DS was more powerful it might be first in line to receive PVZ.

 

[blu]

Sure, and that's why the very first 3D hardware was worse at 2D than earlier 2D hardware. But are you seriously arguing that there is dedicated 2D hardware better at anything than semi-modern GPUs?

yes, and that something is called bitblt.

i have one wram-equipped matrox millenium here, which can beat at bitblt a few 'semi-modern' gpu's i can think of, and is practically unchallenged clock-per-clock.