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Official January NPD 2007 Prediction Thread

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D

donny2112

Member
Find the previous January NPD Prediction thread here. If you predicted in that thread, you will need to adjust for the extra week and predict again in this thread.

The January 2007 NPD report should be released next Tuesday (Feb 20th).
And will be delayed again until its eventual cancellation as the February NPD approaches :lol

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=12724

Wedbush Preview said:
Wedbush: Wii to Outsell PS3 Significantly In January

Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter has predicted a 'conservative' 32% rise in game sales for January's upcoming NPD U.S. charts to $475 million, believing next-gen software may contribute more than current-gen for this first time this month.

Ahead of NPD's monthly sales data expected at market close of Thursday, Feburary 15th, Pachter breaks down the $475 million in sales to $250 million contributed by 'new' platforms, here meaning PS3, Wii, 360, PSP and DS, up 144 percent from the prior year's $148 million, and the remaining $225 million from 'current generation' sales, down $31 million over January of 2006.

Furthermore, Pachter's forecast predicts PS3 sales of 300,000 units, and 500,000 Wii units sold, at a tie ratio of 1.5 games per unit, specifically stating that this January could be the first month where next-generation software sales overtake the current generation.

On the software side, Wedbush Morgan expects January's strongest sellers to continue to be Microsoft's Gears of War, Activision's Guitar Hero II, The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess for the Wii and GameCube, and Electronic Arts’ Madden NFL 07. Pachter notes that there was only one major new release for the month of January, Blizzard's Burning Crusade expansion for World of Warcraft, with other software sales continuing to be driven by pre-holiday releases.

Looking specifically at current-generation systems, Pachter expects that the current strength of the PS2 both in hardware and software sales will continue through at least March, and expects only 'modest year-over-year declines' for the platform for the first half of 2007.

As for the other current generation systems, due to January 2007's five-week sales versus 2006's four-week, Pachter expects only modest declines for GBA, GameCube and Xbox software, with as much as 40 percent declines in sales expected to come in with February's results, all but evaporating by 2008 for the GameCube and Xbox.

Concluding, Pachter says that while the extra sales week might skew comparisons with the prior year, most publishers will continue to "deliver solid results" through March, and that January sales results will "reinforce investor confidence that the industry is on solid footing," with investor uncertainty "driven by anecdotal evidence of poor PS3 hardware sales, accompanied by speculation about the motives behind Microsoft’s decision to reduce its Xbox 360 manufacturing forecast."

"We think that PS3 sales will recover once consumers are made aware of the supply situation, and think that investors may be positively surprised by the hardware sales figures in January," said Pachter.

He added, "We have seen little advertising at the Sony level for the device, and no advertising from retailers. We expect advertising to begin soon, and think that consumers will be drawn to stores in greater numbers as software is released for the PS3. We also expect Blu-ray to drive sales to movie fans, as more Blu-ray film content is released."

Finally, he adds, "Should sales of PS3 and Wii hardware exceed our forecast, there may be upside to our estimates. In addition, should tie ratios on the next generation consoles be greater than the 1.5 units we have modeled, January sell-through could be substantially above our forecast."

POSTED: 02.09PM PST, 02/09/07 - Brandon Boyer
Click to expand...

January is a five-week month covering Dec 31-Feb 3.

Thank you, sonycowboy, for the heads up! link

December 2006 numbers:

sonycowboy said:
Courtesy of NPD

HW Sales (month and LTD)
Nintendo DS 1.6 mm 9.2 mm
PS2 1.4 mm 37.1 mm
GBA 850.7 K 35.1 mm
Xbox 360 1.1 mm 4.5 mm
Wii 604.2 K 1.1 mm
PSP 953.2 K 6.7 mm
PS3 490.7 K 687.3 K

Top 10 Video Games - December 2006
360 GEARS OF WAR - MICROSOFT 815.7 K
PS2 GUITAR HERO 2 W/GUITAR - ACTIVISION 805.2 K
PS2 MADDEN NFL 07 - ELECTRONIC ARTS 737.1 K
GCN LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS - NINTENDO 532.9 K
WII LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS - NINTENDO 519.2 K
PS2 WWE SMACKDOWN VS. RAW 2007 - THQ 484.5 K
NDS NEW SUPER MARIO BROS - NINTENDO 427.5 K
360 CALL OF DUTY 3 - ACTIVISION 410.8 K
NDS YOSHI'S ISLAND 2 - NINTENDO 407.2 K
PS2 CALL OF DUTY 3 - ACTIVISION 365.3 K
Click to expand...

Possibly Significant Releases for January:

360: Lost Planet (1/12), March Madness 2007 (1/17), Battlestations: Midway (1/30)
PS3: Sonic (1/30)
WII: Wario Ware (1/15)
NDS: Yu-Gi-Oh! (1/2), Phoenix Wright 2 (1/17), Hotel Dusk (1/22)
PSP: Sid Meier's Pirates! (1/22), The Legend of Heroes III (1/23)
PS2: Karaoke Revolution (1/2), Backyard Basketball (1/8), March Madness 2007 (1/17), Rogue Galaxy (1/30)
GBA:

General hearsay and personal observations:

DSLites and Wiis were mostly sold out in January despite at least some shipments coming in the latter half of the month.
PS3s got a good restock at the beginning of January after shortages through the December NPD reporting period.
360s had tons of stock in stores at the beginning of the period.

For a different perspective, Japanese sales in the equivalent time period:

360: 48K
PS3: 155K
WII: 525K
NDS: 903K
PSP: 271K
PS2: 133K
GBA: 16K





My Predictions

1. NDS - 425K
2. WII - 410K
3. PS2 - 290K
4. 360 - 285K
5. PS3 - 270K
6. PSP - 175K
7. GBA - 150K

Probably won't be reported, but

8. GCN - 38K
9. XBX - 4K
 
T

tanod

when is my burrito
Edit: Fine, here are my new figures.
/grumble :)

NDS - 400K new 450K
PS2 - 300K new 400K (GoW 2)
PSP - 300K new 350K
PS3 - 250K new 350K (see below)
Wii - 250K new 300K
X360 - 200K new 250K
GBA - 120K new 150K (see below)
GC - 35, yes just 35
XBOX - 11.5

Basically raised everything 50K except for those noted.

GBA = gift item, if people were gonna buy something with Xmas money, they'd get a DS

In regards to better shipments of PS3 than Wii:
JoshuaJSlone said:
You're not the only one to guess this, but how? It wasn't true in North America in November or December, January at any time since Wii launch, or obviously Europe. Why now?
Click to expand...
1)Because Sony is shipping more PS3s than they were in Nov/Dec + that glut of stock right after Xmas.
2)If PS3s were consistently in-stock, stores would advertise them in their circulars. Best Buy, at least, hasn't.
3)I believe Nintendo thinks Japan is more important. >see prior shipment numbers
4)I believe Nintendo is being conservative with shipments. They know they have a fanbase that will buy a Nintendo console no matter what. Calm down fanboys: All consoles manufacturers know this, btw. Because of their experience with the two prior Nintendo consoles, I think they are being more cautious about figuring out how many of those people there are in North America.
 
D

donny2112

Member
tanod said:
If people care enough to want to redo their predictions, they should go to the original thread to do so.
Click to expand...

"That way lies madness."

Anyone who recognized that the number of weeks had now changed for January would instantly have an advantage over anyone who didn't. This way, everyone is on an even playing field, again. :)
 
K

ksamedi

Member
1. NDS - 400K
2. WII - 250K ---> Nintendo not shipping enough of these things
3. PS2 - 250K
4. 360 - 300K
5. PS3 - 300K
6. PSP - 200K
 
A

AlphaSnake

...and that, kids, was the first time I sucked a dick for crack
1. NDS - 380K
2. WII - 320K
3. PS2 - 250K
4. 360 - 300K
5. PS3 - 290K
6. PSP - 290K
7. GBA - 150K
 
J

jj984jj

He's a pretty swell guy in my books anyway.
_leech_ said:
Anyone think all of the recent PSP hacking news will make an impact on PSP sales?
Click to expand...
You mean software sales? It has been for a long while.
 
X

Xzbeat

Member
1. WII - 390K <--- people who coudn't get one for Xmas
2. NDS - 380K
3. PS2 - 270K
4. PS3 - 250K
5. 360 - 240K
6. GBA - 170K
7. PSP - 150K
 
K

Kurosaki Ichigo

Member
Well...I think I'm going to screw it but repredictions ahead!

Predictions
NDS - 375.000
WII - 340.000
360 - 290.000
PS2 - 260.000
PS3 - 210.000
PSP - 165.000
GBA - 140.000
GCN - 20.000
XBX - 2.000
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
People making predictions, realize several things:

1. DS Lite's were impossible to find for the entire month.
2. The Wii had one big weekend with BB, TRU, and Target. Otherwise impossible to find.

Those both can mean a couple different things. Either they shipped and sold a shit load of them, or there was barely any available and they sold all of them.

So either a lot or a little. ;)

My Predictions
1. DS - 450K
2. WII - 350K
3. 360 - 340K
4. PSP - 210K
5. PS2 - 185K
6. PS3 - 175K
7. GBA - 200K
 
B

BuzzJive

Member
Wii - 345,000
DS - 311,000
PS2 - 306,000
360 - 302,000
PS3 - 230,000
GBA - 135,000
PSP - 132,000
Cube - 19,000
Xbox - 3,000
 
B

Busaiku

Member
Nintendo DS - 574,322
Playstation 2 - 386,541
X-Box 360 - 322,872
Wii - 315,898
Sony PSP - 264,486
Playstation 3 - 217,929
Gameboy Advance - 210,980
Gamecube - 107,809
X-Box - 4,207
 
L

LOCK

Member
Revised:

DS - 400k
Wii - 380K
PS2 - 300k
360 - 250k
PSP - 170K
GBA - 170k
PS3 - 170k

Zelda Wii + GC = 260k
Lost Planet - 500k
Wario Ware - 200k (hard to guess)

This month will be wierd, and is basically unpredictable - just guess.
 
G

Ganondorf>Link

Member
DS - 430,000
Wii - 320,000
PS2 - 290,000
360 - 275,000
PS3 - 240,000
PSP - 180,000
GBA - 165,000

Lost Planet - 410,000
Zelda - 330,000 (Wii + GC)
Gears of War - 120,000
Resistance - 105,000
Wario Ware - 89,000
Phoenix Wright 2 - 32,000
Hotel Dusk - 19,000
 
S

Scottlarock

Banned
You can find PS3 in stores, but it is selling @ a pretty brisk rate.
360: 150,000
PS3: 275,000
Wii: 70,000 <-big shortages
PSP: 120,000
DS: 235,000
 
D

doicare

Member
NDS - 420,000
WII - 340,000
360 - 280,000
PS2 - 300,000
PS3 - 380,000
PSP - 160,000
GBA - 130,000
GCN - 12,000
XBX - 2,000
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
PS3 doing remarkably bad, Wii doing remarkably well, 360 finally hitting a stride, DS Lite outsells everything, PSP sells 3 pieces of software for the entire month, PS2 closes the book on next-gen.
 
T

Timedog

good credit (by proxy)
Wii - 320k
360 - 305k
PS3 - 280k

GBA - 150k
DS - 370k
PSP - 178k

GCN - 22k
XB - 7k
PS2 - 323k
 
F

Frankfurter

Member
Pretty hard to predict this month imo.

Anyways, here is mine:

NDS - 400k
GBA - 150k
PSP - 145k

Wii - 300k
PS2 - 275k
360 - 260k
PS3 - 250k
 
D

duderon

rollin' in the gutter
pollo said:
:lol at people that think the wii is going to sell well.

It wont.
Click to expand...

Theh only way it won't sell well is if Nintendo supplied a miniscule amount. Then we can all blame Nintendo for our predictions :)
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
So do we have to cancel out the 2007 predictions thread, too, since we're calling a 53 week year instead of 52? :D

When I made my 2007 predictions, I made loose predictions for each month. I used those January figures in the previous prediction thread. For this one I added in 1/4 of what I had for February. In retrospect I think I've got DS too low here, but what the hell.

Wii: 440K
GBA: 133K
DS: 322K
PS2: 243K
PS3: 294K
PSP: 199K
X360: 269K

__leech__ said:
Anyone think all of the recent PSP hacking news will make an impact on PSP sales?
Click to expand...
Little more than it already has been. I'd imagine many of the people who'd care about things like PS1 emulation were already interested in PSP for its actual games or earlier homebrew/emulation.

Scottlarock said:
Wii: 70,000 <-big shortages
Click to expand...
Ridiculous. With one of the restocks I calculated over 60K for a single day.
 
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