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Official September 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

Unfortunately for Pachter, he didn't make PS2 or GBA predictions this month. It killed his score.

NPD said:
PlayStation 2 215K
PlayStation 3 119.4K
PlayStation Portable 284.5K
Xbox 360 527.8K
Wii 501K
Nintendo DS 495.8K
Game Boy Advance 75K

1. slaughterking - 59,500
2. Timen - 108,100
3. devilscallmedad - 125,100
4. tebunker - 149,100
5. Maxwell House - 154,100
6. beermonkey@tehbias - 157,700
7. Mariah Carey - 174,700
8. rostocker - 177,700
9. SIP YEK NOD - 180,700
10. botticus - 184,700
11. Haunted One - 193,700
11. sionyboy - 193,700
13. TheKurgan - 194,700
14. MakMan - 195,100
15. dammitmattt - 198,700
16. Brakara - 199,700
17. JavyOO7 - 200,700
17. Smiles and Cries - 200,700
17. RevoDS - 200,700
20. Belgorim - 201,100
21. Weisheit - 202,700
22. sdlang - 203,100
23. JCBossman - 203,700
24. Xeke - 204,700
25. GhaleonEB - 207,300
26. Frillen - 207,700
27. toxk_02 - 210,700
28. HylianTom - 213,100
29. oldie-newbie - 214,100
30. AdventureRacing - 215,700
31. Brak - 217,700
32. Zapperkhan - 221,100
33. Stop It - 224,700
34. soma27 - 231,700
35. Psychotext - 233,700
36. TwinIonEngines - 234,700
36. Thraktor - 234,700
38. Jokeropia - 238,700
39. donny2112 - 239,100
40. stalker - 240,100
41. duderon - 240,700
41. TJ Bennett - 240,700
43. Timedog - 241,700
44. FieryBalrog - 243,700
45. Segata Sanshiro - 247,700
46. BuzzJive - 248,700
47. Provider - 249,700
48. Sviatoslav - 250,700
49. eclipze - 252,100
50. apujanata - 252,700
51. Bildi - 253,700
52. RattleHead_ - 254,100
52. Michan - 254,100
54. GAF Aggregate - 256,972
55. blitz64 - 257,700
56. DSWii60 - 258,700
57. Jiggy37 - 258,870
58. rikitikitik - 259,700
59. flipping_heck - 260,700
60. BishopLamont - 262,100
61. legend166 - 264,100
61. Arsenic - 264,100
63. Restricted_Area - 264,700
64. schuelma - 265,700
65. sonycowboy - 266,808
66. _Alkaline_ - 267,700
67. AniHawk - 270,700
68. moku - 270,701
69. Xekrn - 271,100
70. Region-FreeWii - 272,700
70. OliveJuice - 272,700
72. frankthurk - 274,700
72. N.A - 274,700
72. argon - 274,700
75. CitizenCope - 275,700
76. zsidane - 276,700
77. tinderbox - 277,100
78. Hyllian - 277,700
79. John Dunbar - 282,700
80. Subarushian - 283,100
81. Oblivion - 283,500
82. Orgen - 283,700
83. Sindou_Hikaru20 - 284,700
84. Alcibiades - 286,700
85. Mithos Yggdrasill - 288,100
86. Heidir - 289,700
86. lochnesssnowman - 289,700
88. jrricky - 290,700
88. Patton - 290,700
90. tahrikmili - 295,100
91. kefka2030 - 295,700
92. Parl - 297,200
93. Gekkonidae - 298,700
94. jjgames - 299,700
94. radjago - 299,700
96. DayShallCome - 300,100
97. Flakster99 - 300,700
98. scorpian007 - 308,100
99. felipeko - 309,700
99. laserbeam - 309,700
101. Xisiqomelir - 312,700
102. Spotless Mind - 313,700
102. JDSN - 313,700
104. Crowza - 314,100
105. Chumly - 314,700
106. vitaflo - 315,700
107. TTP - 316,100
108. 2600 - 316,700
109. Phoenix 2.0 - 317,700
110. nextgeneration - 318,700
111. speculawyer - 319,700
112. RBH - 320,700
112. doicare - 320,700
114. Arsenal - 324,100
115. cashman - 324,700
115. jey_16 - 324,700
115. Frankfurter - 324,700
115. hadareud - 324,700
119. kinggroin - 325,700
119. Jube3 - 325,700
121. VanMardigan - 327,700
122. Forgotten Ancient - 328,500
123. widgetraf - 329,100
124. beerbelly - 329,700
124. Sir Fragula - 329,700
124. USD - 329,700
127. rakka - 330,700
128. Great Rumbler - 334,100
129. Kurosaki Ichigo - 336,700
130. Nuclear Muffin - 338,700
131. Hammer24 - 339,700
132. I AM JOHN! - 340,700
133. JJConrad - 341,100
134. Spiegel - 341,700
135. Agent Icebeezy - 342,700
136. corez - 343,700
137. DC R1D3R - 344,700
137. RPS37 - 344,700
139. DefectiveReject - 345,500
140. duk - 346,700
141. titiklabingapat - 348,368
142. Thunder Monkey - 349,700
142. Omikaru - 349,700
144. citrus lump - 350,500
145. RobertM - 350,700
146. jamesinclair - 354,703
147. doomed1 - 358,100
148. Linkup - 358,700
149. Spasm - 359,700
149. f@luS - 359,700
151. Guy Legend - 362,700
152. perfectchaos007 - 363,500
153. Threi - 363,700
154. Clever Pun - 367,700
155. Ydahs - 369,700
156. andy_lhc - 370,700
157. hoos30 - 373,700
158. Mr.Potato Head - 374,700
159. TheKingsCrown - 375,100
160. Secks4Food - 376,500
161. cvxfreak - 378,700
162. Porkepik - 383,700
163. AlternativeUlster - 386,500
164. Lobster - 392,200
165. d[-_-]b - 393,500
166. turtle553 - 393,700
167. SuperBanjo - 394,700
168. INTERNET - 398,500
169. TwinsDad - 400,700
170. Amir0x - 403,867
171. Armada - 404,700
172. JoshuaJSlone - 405,700
173. Raist - 407,700
174. Odysseus - 409,101
175. Freki - 409,700
176. gollumsluvslave - 410,700
177. mr_bishiuk - 412,200
178. Windu - 414,100
179. Sho_Nuff82 - 415,700
180. The M.O.B - 418,700
181. Dave Long - 421,500
182. rage1973 - 424,700
182. Ataru83 - 424,700
182. dyls - 424,700
185. JaY P. - 429,700
186. :enemyglider: - 431,700
187. Cooter - 433,500
188. gregor7777 - 437,100
189. djtiesto - 437,700
190. Drensch - 439,500
191. TheSmokingManX - 441,700
192. ComputerNerd - 448,700
193. Blablurn - 451,700
194. Eric WK - 454,700
195. CassSept - 455,700
196. PhoenixDark - 458,500
197. Gadfly - 460,700
197. oo Kosma oo - 460,700
199. Anerythristic - 463,700
200. Rekwest - 469,700
200. chadums90 - 469,700
202. Mojo - 470,700
202. Captain Pants - 470,700
204. D3MO - 473,100
205. SPEA - 474,700
205. u_neek - 474,700
207. Pope Benedict XVI - 475,700
208. rs7k - 478,700
209. DiatribeEQ - 484,700
209. kassatsu - 484,700
211. GameGamer - 486,500
212. evlcookie - 489,700
213. Bravoexo - 494,700
214. Mojovonio - 500,700
215. joelseph - 509,700
215. ElectricBlue187 - 509,700
217. Relix - 512,500
218. Earthstrike - 524,700
218. godisturbed - 524,700
220. Borys - 529,700
221. Shpeshal Ed - 533,700
222. 3rdman - 538,500
223. Cruceh - 539,700
224. Hcoregamer00 - 543,700
225. Kodiak - 547,700
226. PhatSaqs - 549,700
227. Sarenai - 554,700
228. Livin_Lovin - 563,500
229. m14 - 564,700
230. kammy - 569,700
230. Des0lar - 569,700
232. Pachter - 572,700
233. angelfly - 586,700
234. soul creator - 619,700
235. davepoobond - 624,700
236. minus_273 - 658,500
237. Amarnath - 659,700
238. Game-Biz - 685,100
239. Dalauz - 689,100
240. rhfb - 898,500
241. lix2k3 - 915,700
242. jarrod - 1,818,500
 
GhaleonEB said:
25. GhaleonEB - 207,300

I'll take it! The 360 KILLED me this month. The one month I lowball it....:lol

The points system will moderate that somewhat. Many of us got killed on the 360, but it counts the same as the other systems in terms of points despite the heighted units. We'll have to wait for Donny.
 

Jiggy

Member
From top 24 to below the GAF aggregate. Sad. :( I'll content myself with outdoing Sales-Age luminaries like sonycowboy and JoshuaJSlone, though.
 

donny2112

Member
Code:
     September 2007              Last 3 months                2007 overall
1.   slaughterking      151.27   rostocker           410.42   JoshuaJSlone        1,141.81
2.   beermonkey@tehbias 143.91   toxk_02             408.96   GhaleonEB           1,129.72
3.   rostocker          141.87   cvxfreak            406.21   sonycowboy          1,123.23
4.   Mariah Carey       141.6    Psychotext          401.52   BuzzJive            1,122.89
5.   devilscallmedad    140.84   JoshuaJSlone        398.92   argon               1,121.45
6.   Timen              140.14   duderon             398.46   donny2112           1,118.11
7.   Zapperkhan         136.94   Brakara             396.24   Clever Pun          1,109.41
8.   Timedog            136.17   RevoDS              394.1    duderon             1,098.08
9.   duderon            136.16   devilscallmedad     391.27   Heidir              1,069.66
10.  tebunker           134.11   Restricted_Area     389.62   Orgen               1,067.40
11.  _Alkaline_         133.93   apujanata           388.56   Kurosaki Ichigo     1,063.94
12.  Restricted_Area    133.49   Frillen             386.93   rage1973            1,061.34
13.  JDSN               133.48   GhaleonEB           386.74   Jokeropia           995.97
14.  JavyOO7            133.25   Threi               385.48   DayShallCome        969.63
15.  Maxwell House      133.2    argon               385.1    TheKurgan           951.43
16.  DefectiveReject    131.9    sonycowboy          383.99   starship            938.83
17.  2600               130.88   Jokeropia           383.59   Frankfurter         935.76
18.  tahrikmili         130.66   sionyboy            382.52   AniHawk             921.76
19.  Brak               130.56   Parl                382.49   PhoenixDark         916.28
20.  Brakara            128.84   TheKurgan           382.18   beermonkey@tehbias  910.61
21.  sionyboy           128      tinderbox           382.14   apujanata           891.68
22.  RevoDS             127.81   lochnesssnowman     381.49   djtiesto            879.34
23.  TwinIonEngines     127.78   Hyllian             380.27   Parl                862.43
24.  apujanata          127.7    Heidir              379.38   Bildi               861.5
25.  toxk_02            127.46   Haunted One         378.29   Earthstrike         859.58
26.  Haunted One        127.33   BuzzJive            377.74   Haunted One         857.96
27.  SIP YEK NOD        127.23   donny2112           377.24   DSWii60             853.54
28.  Bildi              127.12   jey_16              375.99   Odysseus            844.88
29.  DSWii60            126.94   DSWii60             375.41   felipeko            837.09
30.  Porkepik           126.86   Clever Pun          375.26   JJConrad            832.96

Brakara said:
So far so good. Now we just need donny's numbers.

Psychotext was #99 by the points system.

Edit:
September 2007 points rankings of the top 10 for 2007 overall.

JoshuaJSlone - 152
GhaleonEB - 54
sonycowboy - 72
BuzzJive - 62
argon - 47
donny2112 - 31 (Yeah! Coming back slowly! :D)
Clever Pun - 130
duderon - 9
Heidir - 87
Orgen - 92
 
donny2112 said:
September 2007 points rankings of the top 10 for 2007 overall.

JoshuaJSlone - 152
GhaleonEB - 54
sonycowboy - 72
BuzzJive - 62
argon - 47
donny2112 - 31 (Yeah! Coming back slowly! :D)
Clever Pun - 130
duderon - 9
Heidir - 87
Orgen - 92

How many folks got the rankings correct. The only tough part being 360 > Wii > DS, but that's likely going to be enough to make the number of folks small.
 

donny2112

Member
sonycowboy said:
How many folks got the rankings correct.

23 or about 10% of those who entered.

_Alkaline_
2600
Ataru83
beermonkey@tehbias
chadums90
ComputerNerd
DefectiveReject
duderon
ElectricBlue187
Game-Biz
JavyOO7
JDSN
Mariah Carey
Porkepik
RattleHead_
Restricted_Area
rostocker
Sarenai
tahrikmili
TheKingsCrown
Timedog
turtle553
Zapperkhan
 

2600

Member
WOOH! I got the ranking right at least! In your face, uhh, somebody!

BTW, Nice job on the system you folks have put together to calculate all this stuff so quickly.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
sonycowboy said:
The points system will moderate that somewhat. Many of us got killed on the 360, but it counts the same as the other systems in terms of points despite the heighted units. We'll have to wait for Donny.
Moderate it? It knocked me down to #54! :lol

Such an incredible month. I've been gaming since the Atari days, and it has me grinning ear to ear to see this industry grow so fast. :D

Also, hats off to you, Donny, NPD and Cheesmeister. The organization brought to these predictions has made the whole discussion that much more fun. Cool of NPD to provide software for the ten we used.
 
GhaleonEB said:
Moderate it? It knocked me down to #54! :lol

Such an incredible month. I've been gaming since the Atari days, and it has me grinning ear to ear to see this industry grow so fast. :D

Also, hats off to you, Donny, NPD and Cheesmeister. The organization brought to these predictions has made the whole discussion that much more fun. Cool of NPD to provide software for the ten we used.

If the 360 was your only problem, you'd have done better with the points system. ;)

I'm also quite happy at the resuciation of the prediction threads to these heights. I started the scoring and prediction system like 3-4 years ago and people thought I was insane. Now, there are like 4 or 5 competing industry predictors out there. And, I think NeoGAF is traditionally the best.
 

apujanata

Member
50. apujanata - 252,700

I was really killed by my X360 prediction. Should have predicted it higher.
I also should have stayed with my original Wii prediction, which was 500K, almost on spot with it.
 

Brak

Member
I'm pretty happy with #31. I always end up being way off on one system though; the PSP the past couple of months, before that the Wii, and this month the 360.
 
Oh yeah, the results of my "best predictors averages". Not hot results.

August 2007: 292,450
Last 3 months: 285,220
2007 Overall: 216,580

So only the 2007 overall group did better than the full GAF aggregate.
 
196. PhoenixDark - 458,500

2lzlor
 
WTF?
Earthstrike 859.58

I'm 25th overall? God damn I would've tried harder at this months numbers if I knew I was competing. i.e. factoring in the week tracking difference and thinking about 360 more carefully.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
Oh yeah, the results of my "best predictors averages". Not hot results.

August 2007: 292,450
Last 3 months: 285,220
2007 Overall: 216,580

So only the 2007 overall group did better than the full GAF aggregate.

Our PSP predictions killed us :(
It's quite weird in Japan PSP sells worse on average than the US, yet it sells more during the Slim launch than their US counterpart.
 
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