Nothing original in this post, but I hope Xbone does outsell ps4 for a little while. I'm a PS4 owner and I think Sony need a kick up the behind. They've been a bit crap this year. I also think MS has the better line up until the end of the year. Good pricing here in the UK too!
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Pachter Predicts: Xbox One outsold PS4 in September (dance, you puppets)
- Thread starter Guevara
- Start date
Aquamarine
Member
He gives the predictions to his clients. They're not intended for the general public, and they're certainly not meant to "provoke an entire fanbase."
They're quick, cursory predictions made on a whim with a VERY small sampling of the market.
News sites pay for the predictions and then broadcast them as a news article...like they actually mean something. But that was never their intent.
So what? It's not set in stone. Pachter didn't spend a lot of time coming up with the predictions...so he doesn't really care if they're right or wrong.
Pachter doesn't bet his integrity as an Equity Research Analyst on the validity of these numbers. He throws the numbers out there to give clients a general feel how the market might perform. Nothing is definitive on the matter.
Now if you were to ask him about his Buy / Sell prediction for Nintendo stock, he will give you a much more reasoned and thoughtful approach...because that's his REAL job. This isn't his job. It's a fun anecdote.
This is just mind boggling to me.
Not going to go over well here but I agree.
It is hard to believe because that guy is one of the worst fanboys on the internet.
So how true is this?
@michaelpachter Why are your predictions so wildly off and consistently wrong? Honest question. They rarely seem to be close.
‏@michaelpachter
@Aiervon and you say that because you see them all? Check NeoGAF, I have won the competition there, and am usually top tier
https://twitter.com/michaelpachter/status/522031847123861504
@michaelpachter Why are your predictions so wildly off and consistently wrong? Honest question. They rarely seem to be close.
‏@michaelpachter
@Aiervon and you say that because you see them all? Check NeoGAF, I have won the competition there, and am usually top tier
https://twitter.com/michaelpachter/status/522031847123861504
I've long been convinced that's Twitter's primary reason for existence.
GeordieMark
Member
I don't think he is entirely wrong though. Fanboys do exist on both sides.
I mean, you just mentioned 'Sony fans' which is effectively another way of saying fanboys.
There are people who will try to have a debate and look at things rationally and there are others who spring to the defence of their favourite company, no matter what.
WTF. Now i want my SciFi GTA VI in the future.
BWJinxing
Member
Is he legit saying that on a not so heavily advertised program, giving away a free extra game of your choice, for a week, blew away the competitor?
Statistically in an ideal world, this should have worked. But in reality, I don't agree with this a sole reason.
If he was right, color me shocked, but I honestly don't think Sept was the month of xbone sales lead, its bound to happen at some point.
Stardust_Comet
Neo Member
If XBone doesn't outsell the PS4 in this gen, then that just means MS will pick their game up for the next gen console, forcing Sony to have to up their game as well.
>-Baron-Spamedi-<
Member
Hmmm. I thought you said competition drives innovation which certainly sounds more like you were suggesting (in the context of the original post and reply) it was the only driver of innovation with regards to PSN.
You were, after all, replying to my jocular assertion that someone suggesting that it was possible to KNOW that PSN wouldn't be anything like was today without Microsoft being around must be able to travel through time to an alternate version of events.
Because clearly it is ridiculous to suggest we can KNOW anything about an alternative reality that never happened.
Why? He has a right to make predictions in the sales thread just like any other user.
Spottiettiedop
Member
So a re mastered GTA5 that will be on both systems will change things?
Shots fired
I presume Pachter feels validated when gets any type of attention, good or bad, which is why he is continually making controversial predictions which turn out to be hopelessly inaccurate.
Fuse will sell 5 million.
Titanfall will sell 6-10 million.
Nintendo are throwing away money by selling the 3DS so cheaply.
As in ban making threads about him more likely. I think he had an account but was banned.
Aquamarine
Member
Just to be clear:
Pachter never actually posts the predictions to the thread.
He sends the predictions to clients.
Some NeoGAF members are very high-powered with ties to NPD / GfK / Equity Research and get a lot of that kind of data on a regular basis.
NeoGAF members then post his predictions because they're subscribed clients to Wedbush Equity Research.
Thanks! I like it when that happens!
That sounds good to me too. Even if it doesn't outsell it consistently, I'd rather they both did well.
ethomaz
Banned
If there is any change of a remaster do something that is GTAV in my opinion.
It will be the first remaster to cross 5 million sales.
John Bender
Banned
Has nothing to do with "hate", Pachter.
You are just so damn delusional with your prediction, it ain't even funny anymore.
The dimension doesn't even exist, where the Xbone could have outsold the PS4 in september.
Stardust_Comet
Neo Member
Not entirely wrong in his prediction, or that his reaction is not entirely wrong? If you mean the latter, I don't think it's entirely wrong either. I just honestly have a feeling the point of the prediction is to piss off the fanboys for his own amusement.
I also referred to them as fanboys in a previous post too. That time I was just trying to be specific about saying they were fans of Sony.
Barack Lesnar
Banned
Don't worry, fellas. Evil M$ won't win the month, it'll be alright. You can wear your beanies with pride this month.
Banning Pachter threads? Give me a break. They're fun and entertaining.
GeordieMark
Member
Maybe not for absolute certain, but we can assume with a fair degree of certainty. People make predictions and assumptions all the time. This entire thread is based on one, be it right or wrong.
You've read my post and interpreted it in a way that you choose to suit your own argument.
You were being a smart arse spouting your Marty McFly line in response to the other guy. I'm pretty sure if you asked any of the top MS or Sony execs their opinions on what drives them to keep innovating and improving their platforms, one of the answers they will give you is competition. They are not operating in a vacuum.
Red Chocobo
Banned
I mean the threads about his predictions.
He's almost never right and the threads are just full of people pointing this fact out.
ethomaz
Banned
Ban a prediction? So everybody in the prediction thread needs to be banned too lol
fuzzyreactor
Banned
who pays this dude?
GeordieMark
Member
His reaction. Sorry if it wasn't clear.
When you think how much stick the guy must get, I can't blame him for having a bit of fun at their expense.
Aquamarine
Member
Yeah, it's stupid.
His predictions were posted in the NPD Prediction thread way before a separate thread was made about this.
In the NPD Prediction thread people were deconstructing Pachter's analysis a little more thoughtfully. Here it seems to be a more knee-jerk "Stupid dumb Pachter!" kind of thing.
Nothing that hasn't been more thoughtfully worded elsewhere.
So what's the word among those members concerning September sales?
Woah, woah, woah.
MS have been very aggressive with the pricing and marketing of the Xbone in the Phantom Zone.
Stardust_Comet
Neo Member
Honestly, if I had his job, I'd probably be doing the same thing too.
But then again, I'm just mean-spirited and enjoy watching people overreact about the console wars.
These are last year's results:
No numbers, then.At least we have results!
[...]
Points
Code:December 2013 Overall 2013 Top (10/12) 01. WinterDemons ---.-- donny2112 ---.-- 02. Anth0ny ---.-- doicare ---.-- 03. skedar897 ---.-- Road ---.-- 04. NateDrake ---.-- MasterSheen ---.-- 05. Brew124 ---.-- allan-bh ---.-- 06. 1st Course ---.-- Goldmund ---.-- 07. MasterSheen ---.-- DaBoss ---.-- 08. Goldmund ---.-- Bruno MB ---.-- 09. Gianni Merryman ---.-- confuziz ---.-- 10. metalslimer ---.-- Jonsoncao ---.-- 11. Javier ---.-- jvm ---.-- 12. GhaleonEB ---.-- Elios83 ---.-- 13. jayu26 ---.-- archnemesis ---.-- 14. astrogamer ---.-- Megadragon15 ---.-- 15. BlackJace ---.-- kswiston ---.-- 16. Asd202 ---.-- shinra-bansho ---.-- 17. TheRealTalker ---.-- andy_lhc ---.-- 18. Gbpackers31 ---.-- BlackJace ---.-- 19. ZhugeEX ---.-- michaelius ---.-- 20. Road ---.-- skedar897 ---.-- 21. DaBoss ---.-- Pachter ---.-- 22. Maxxan ---.-- Aquamarine ---.-- 23. Minions ---.-- Zero-Crescent ---.-- 24. Jamix012 ---.-- Brakara ---.-- 25. michaelius ---.-- metalslimer ---.-- 26. Kimawolf ---.-- DrWong ---.-- 27. bEAST1N_G ---.-- prag16 ---.-- 28. Griss ---.-- pieatorium ---.-- 29. vinnygambini ---.-- Gianni Merryman ---.-- 30. Sifl ---.-- CorporateClown ---.-- 31. allan-bh ---.-- pitseleh ---.-- 32. Jallopy ---.-- idlewild_ ---.-- 33. Dynopia ---.-- noobie ---.-- 34. andy_lhc ---.-- Hiro_Kunimi_80 ---.-- 35. jvm ---.-- ItWasMeantToBe19 ---.-- 36. Pachter ---.-- Colonel Mustard ---.-- 37. GrayDock ---.-- GulAtiCa ---.-- 38. Chobel ---.-- Lexxus ---.-- 39. Tratorn ---.-- perfectchaos007 ---.-- 40. Radec ---.-- Madao ---.-- 41. BlackBuzzard ---.-- Hammer24 ---.-- 42. Skeff ---.-- Canis lupus ---.-- 43. Bruno MB ---.-- Drago ---.-- 44. Foshy ---.-- NateDrake ---.-- 45. Pound_lb003 ---.-- Jamix012 ---.-- 46. oxalicwave ---.-- bakman21 ---.-- 47. DrWong ---.-- Roboleon ---.-- 48. Shaanyboi ---.-- sacrificengineer ---.-- 49. prag16 ---.-- baekshi ---.-- 50. Lexxus ---.-- airmangataosenai ---.--
Congratulations, WinterDemons for the month and donny2112 for the year!
Edit:
:O
He was in the top 25.
Aquamarine
Member
Most months, threads NEVER get made about Pachter's predictions because they're usually pretty reasonable.
This one is way out of left-field. Usually it's more in line with what GAFfers in the Prediction Thread conclude.
I think the vitriol partly stems from the fact that pachter is an "analyst" so ppl get more amped when he makes what may be perceived as inaccurate predictions . I can make 10 predictions in this thread no one cares . But if I was an analyst where it have a high profile and ppl listen to me . I can expect to get called out on it Etc etc .
Stardust_Comet
Neo Member
Did Pachter specifically say it was the September of this year?
What if we get the results for sales of consoles for this month, then Pachter turns around and says "Oh, you all thought I meant the September of 2014? I actually meant the September of 2015! Don't you know those games I've mentioned are planning to do a one year anniversary sales pitch special as well?" just to keep the shitstorm going on for a year.
What if we get the results for sales of consoles for this month, then Pachter turns around and says "Oh, you all thought I meant the September of 2014? I actually meant the September of 2015! Don't you know those games I've mentioned are planning to do a one year anniversary sales pitch special as well?" just to keep the shitstorm going on for a year.
Yes. Your name is mentioned in bold in donny's post.
Aquamarine
Member
In the actual note sent to investors / clients, Pachter specifically states "September 2014 NPD Preview."
And the rest of his predictions were sound...it's only the PS4 prediction that's wonky.
Stardust_Comet
Neo Member
Nothing other than the satisfaction of pissing off some fanboys and getting to laugh at their rage, I'm sure.
Shadow_FFVI
Member
I agree. It´s a fair assumption to make.
It was one of the distinct advantages Microsoft had over Sony, in a time were they were struggling severely with the PS3 and conceding market share to the competitors.
Stardust_Comet
Neo Member
Oh, that's sad. I would have found it funny if he had said that simply to troll.
Interceptor
Banned
It saddens me to see a pachter thread coming up again and again.
I realize that. I find his prediction odd, as well. I think I'm ranking lower than him for this year currently, so I'm pleased.
EDIT: Actually, he's not even in the top 50 this year, so far, but his prediction for last month was pretty good.
AyaisMUsikWhore
Member
I get that but his last tweet wasn't a prediction. It was targeted and deliberate. He wants a reaction. Why bring this type of hostility to a simple conversation.
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