Yeah I'm guessing as well. I haven't heard anything from anyone. But I feel fairly confident that it's software being ready that will determine the release date moreso than hardware... because I think they have production ramped up nicely. Hell, they already increased their projections for the launch once - they are clearly confident in their ability to produce units.
I agree.
There is noting stopping them from launching the console as soon as September at this rate, but that would put developers in a really bad position. If they launched in September the games would need to be done and going in for cert right now, and there is no way in hell that is happening. I also don't see the next gen version of any game releasing before the current gen/PC versions.
It will be interesting to see what happens. I imagine they want to get out as early as possible to get ahead of MS, and to have enough to time get a second or third wave of systems out in time for black Friday. However, if they launch too soon they will be launching with very few games ready for day one.
I have to imagine that regardless of when the consoles launch the developers are preparing the next gen versions of games to hit at about the same time as the current gen versions. If that is the case then I could see Sony releasing in early November, as that would give them a solid launch lineup that would include Battlefield, ACIV, and CoD. We would then see Need for Speed and Watch Dogs launching just a few weeks later, which having a slightly staggered launch line up would be a good thing IMO.
One thing is for certain though, this fall is going to be a blast as we watch both consoles launch.