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[Ogodei]

It's going to be really hard to tank a country such as USA like so. There's no other country in the world with the systems in place to handle what USA would release if it went under. If the USA started to tank then other countries would help prop it up. Forget understanding the economical fallout that would occur, you would see MUCH more hostility between countries.

USA is one empire that won't topple anytime soon. Everyone's too invested in it.

The USA is a the personification of "you need me more than I need you". So who will flinch first?

There are two key pillars that the US provides to global stability: bonds and the nuclear umbrella.

Bonds are the harder nut to crack if we wanted to create a post-American world that wasn't a total shithole (due to the utter collapse of global credit, stocks, and a long-ass depression). The best route forward right now seems to be about giving more power to the IMF and their "special drawing rights," which would be based upon a basket of currencies rather than relying on the dollar and the US government, and could serve as a stable asset, but they only would work as a stable sovereign asset and nobody else is really there to pick up private investors who want a rock-solid investment (the European Union, if they got their shit together, would be a good bet, but that's not going well).

The nuclear umbrella, unfortunately, could be resolved by greater proliferation as Trump himself has suggested. Germany, Japan, and South Korea could be there by July if they decided today that they wanted nukes of their own. Saudi Arabia could probably get Pakistan to sell 'em some.

 

[Almighty]

I think any rational person can see that US soft power is going to take a hit under Trump that makes the years under Bush Jr. seem great.

Though I personally don't see China taking over anytime soon like some do.

 

[Guileless]

So the Russian guy was right and we'll see the dissolution of the USSA

Is Tuscaloosa part of Mexico yet?

 

[trembli0s]

I would be more worried if everyone on GAF disagreed with this. The collective "he's right!" from the group that was sure that Hillary was going to win is sort of a sure contrarian bet.

Meanwhile the US consumer confidence index (released today) is at the highest its been in 12 years, the US stock market is at record highs - the DJIA up nearly 8% since just the election - the US dollar is at record strength, the US business confidence is at record highs, oil prices seem stable even after OPEC agreed to a cartel supply cut, and china has a host of problems to combat next year that make the US's seem trivial in contrast: massive corporate debt mostly held by state owned companies, real estate growth issues, and a real slowdown in household consumption.

Agreed. This seems like a really dumb "bet."

It's not like anyone is ready to step up to the plate either at this point. The EU is on death's door as we speak, I give the Euro 2-3 more years tops, and the broader EU 5 years.

China and Japan aren't anywhere near close to the point where they need to be to recenter the global economy. Both are drowning in debt and have massive demographic issues.

 

[Odrion]

So the Russian guy was right and we'll see the dissolution of the USSA

fuck yeah I'll join canada

 

[Plinko]

So the Russian guy was right and we'll see the dissolution of the USSA

LOL at Texas and the south EVER becoming part of Mexico.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

So the Russian guy was right and we'll see the dissolution of the USSA

rofl, this will never happen.

 

[Ac30]

So the Russian guy was right and we'll see the dissolution of the USSA

California Republic part of China :lol

 

[Dhx]

Agreed. This seems like a really dumb "bet."

It's not like anyone is ready to step up to the plate either at this point. The EU is on death's door as we speak, I give the Euro 2-3 more years tops, and the broader EU 5 years.

China and Japan aren't anywhere near close to the point where they need to be to recenter the global economy. Both are drowning in debt and have massive demographic issues.

Absolutely.

China has much bigger problems on the horizon that are being glossed over in this thread. Age demographics, currency, and a bubble set to make 2008 look like a small hangover are just the start of it.

 

[ezrarh]

American power can decline - doesn't mean our quality of life has to decline either but that doesn't look good either.

Also - that Russian map is silly. It's more likely we orient ourselves around urban clusters. The concept of the state as it is now doesn't serve the needs of the future.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Yeah, that map is pure fucking nonsense.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Why are we convinced that the EU is so close to death? I know Brexit was a blow, but I was under the impression the win in Austria, and hopeful wins in France and Germany would keep the hold. Has there been new development to think France and Germany are lost causes, or is there something else?

 

[Luschient]

It'll come to war before United States let's itself decline.

We will see ourselves transition into an authoritative military presence around the world.

Yep, people acting as if a collapse of the US would be this thing that the admin and populace just allow to happen. It would be an extremely ugly thing the world over.

Yep, this is plain as day. America is going to be taking a backseat to China in the very near future.

Who will take the US's role in buying all those Chinese goods that keep their economy chugging along? If the US goes down, China follows shortly behind.

So the Russian guy was right and we'll see the dissolution of the USSA

Hysterical, thanks for the laugh. And how exactly is Mexico suddenly able to command multiple southern states?

 

[Tigress]

Well when we keep electing people like bush Jr. and trump it may just be a good thing we lose our power. For the rest of the world anyways.

 

[orava]

I should learn Mandarin.

 

[kirblar]

LOL at Texas and the south EVER becoming part of Mexico.

Mexico can't even maintain control in its existing states!

 

[roytheone]

Good, since Americans can't even be trusted to elect a qualified person as their president, I don't trust them with so much world power.

 

[paperboywriter]

have to say it once in a while:

I still cant believe you guys voted him into power. it's still hard to believe.

 

[MrSaturn99]

He argued that American fascism would come from a capacity for tremendous global violence; a vision of American exceptionalism as the “fittest nation”; a belief in a coming final war between good and evil; a cult of the strong state leading the fight of good against evil; and a cult of the “strong leader”.

Goddamn, on point.

 

[kirblar]

Why are we convinced that the EU is so close to death? I know Brexit was a blow, but I was under the impression the win in Austria, and hopeful wins in France and Germany would keep the hold. Has there been new development to think France and Germany are lost causes, or is there something else?

Monetary instability. The shared currency (under the current setup) is a huge problem.

 

[RocknRola]

Agreed. This seems like a really dumb "bet."

It's not like anyone is ready to step up to the plate either at this point. The EU is on death's door as we speak, I give the Euro 2-3 more years tops, and the broader EU 5 years.

China and Japan aren't anywhere near close to the point where they need to be to recenter the global economy. Both are drowning in debt and have massive demographic issues.

Absolutely.

China has much bigger problems on the horizon that are being glossed over in this thread. Age demographics, currency, and a bubble set to make 2008 look like a small hangover are just the start of it.

Euro will be here for a while longer, for better or worse, as will the EU. You'd need several, several things to go completely wrong in the EU countries for the downfall to occur that fast.

Even with the UK bailing out (which still feels like it'll be much worse for them than for the EU) the union looks stable. As much as aspiring right wing parties talk about leaving the EU, the money they need from it is crucial for those countries to even function these days. Even stuff as "simple" as farming is heavily dependent on support from the EU. To suddenly have to go by without it would be insane. Then there are the social issues of course, doubt the majority of the population would actively accept leaving the union (especially Central Europe).

Why are we convinced that the EU is so close to death? I know Brexit was a blow, but I was under the impression the win in Austria, and hopeful wins in France and Germany would keep the hold. Has there been new development to think France and Germany are lost causes, or is there something else?

Yeah, and even then it wouldn't be easy for France or Germany to leave the Euro and the EU. They both gain a lot more by being a part of it than not.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Monetary instability. The shared currency (under the current setup) is a huge problem.

So, if the Euro tanks, is it pretty assumed that the EU dies with it?

 

[trembli0s]

So, if the Euro tanks, is it pretty assumed that the EU dies with it?

Not at all. I think you end up where you were before the Euro. It would definitely suck for Germany though.

I think the EU might decide that it's better off without certain nations in the mix which would be fair to both sides honestly.

 

[PastorOfMuppets]

So the Russian guy was right and we'll see the dissolution of the USSA

Best I can offer is that Canada will take California, Oregon and Washington State. All of New England plus New York comes with us. The rest of y'all are on your own.

In exchange, we'll trade you 1st round draft picks for the Oilers, Canadiens, Flames, Senators and Canucks for the next 10 years.

 

[_woLf]

Doesn't require a nobel prize to realize that.

 

[Zackat]

Hari Seldon? :O

he really does exist

 

[Ac30]

Monetary instability. The shared currency (under the current setup) is a huge problem.

Since I'm not very economics literate, what is the feasibility of the Euro failing without the dissolution of the EU? The way I see it, either the Euro falls or we need federalization, which I would totally be for, but it's looking less and less likely.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

So the Russian guy was right and we'll see the dissolution of the USSA

This is all hilarious but it's especially great that the Deep South is part of Mexico but Arizona somehow isn't lolololol

 

[Unknown One]

Best I can offer is that Canada will take California, Oregon and Washington State. All of New England plus New York comes with us. The rest of y'all are on your own.

In exchange, we'll trade you 1st round draft picks for the Oilers, Canadiens, Flames, Senators and Canucks for the next 10 years.

I'll gladly join Canada.

Mexico could have all the southern states.

 

[Xando]

Not at all. I think you end up where you were before the Euro. It would definitely suck for Germany though.

I think the EU might decide that it's better off without certain nations in the mix which would be fair to both sides honestly.

The EU as overblown as it is now might dead but i'm certain there would be some other bloc forming which will deeply integrated (basically EU 2.0) and containt central/western european countries (France, Benelux, Germany, Austria and maybe some of the scandinavians).

 

[Apzu]

So the Russian guy was right and we'll see the dissolution of the USSA

What?! This map doesn't make any sense and I can see that even though I'm not american.

 

[Ishan]

Automation will hit India quite hard.

China and the rest of the world will make the shift to large scale automation of manufactoring through all fields when India hit it's demopgrahic sweet spot.

India is a largely services economy there is a manufacturing push but we have large human capital in services sectors too some aspects of which eg high skill tech labor will be impacted by automation to a lesser degree but yes automation will hit us too . However given our indigenous tech dev such as by iur space agency isro etc gives me confidence we'd probably one of the faster countries when it comes to adapting tech and formulation automation in line with our specific needs ,

It's not about toppling United States the country, it's about US losing its dominant global influence and retreat back to pre-wwII status.

I dunno about pre ww2 status but a definite decrease in it's influence . Half the planet was laughing at bush ... Obama helped change course now trump is in and the whole planet will probably be face palming or laughing or running scared .

 

[Melon Husk]

"Galtung has doctoral degrees in both sociology and mathematics, and some decades ago developed a theory of “synchronizing and mutually reinforcing contradictions”, which he used to make his forecasts,"

So basically he is Hari Seldon in real life.

“An empire is more than violence around the world,” said Galtung. “It is a cross-border structure with a center, the imperial country, and a periphery, the client countries. The point about imperialism is to make the elites in the periphery do the jobs for the center.”

The center country may be a dictatorship or a democracy. So for Galtung, the collapse of the US empire comes “when the periphery elites no longer want to fight US wars, no longer want to exploit for the center.”

I guess I'll have to read his damn book. This guy seems to have mastered psychohistory. Now he just needs to reinforce his theory with computer science.

 

[Meaty]

Who the fuck is this dude? Harry Seldon?

 

[RMI]

What?! This map doesn't make any sense and I can see that even though I'm not american.

but you can see that whoever drew that map just arbitrarily chose the closest world power to give each quadrant of the US to.

makes perfect sense!

I for one welcome my European masters.

 

[Crayon]

So the Russian guy was right and we'll see the dissolution of the USSA

I want this framed for my game room.

 

[Apzu]

but you can see that whoever drew that map just arbitrarily chose the closest world power to give each quadrant of the US to.

makes perfect sense!

I for one welcome my European masters.

You don't deserve European masters, you don't even have a universal health care system. They would have too much work to fix your ideals of government.

Brazil on the other hand would be a much better acquisition. Besides, we are neighbours to the EU thanks to French Guiana so we are a lot closer to european influence than you will ever be.

 

[BocoDragon]

So the Russian guy was right and we'll see the dissolution of the USSA

As a Canadian I'd rather have the West coast.

 

[Matsukaze]

So the Russian guy was right and we'll see the dissolution of the USSA

This map might as well say that Hawaii will collectively detach from the planet and ascend into space.

 

[Nikodemos]

“An empire is more than violence around the world,” said Galtung. “It is a cross-border structure with a center, the imperial country, and a periphery, the client countries. The point about imperialism is to make the elites in the periphery do the jobs for the center.”

Except that doesn't really work when applied to the US, since its 'clients', for lack of a better word, are entirely unwilling to shoulder the burden of empire (look at NATO funding), something the US is actually quite happy about since it keeps the reins in the coachman's hands, rather than the passengers'. The biggest problem is the coachman giving the reins away.

 

[kame-sennin]

Except that doesn't really work when applied to the US, since its 'clients', for lack of a better word, are entirely unwilling to shoulder the burden of empire (look at NATO funding), something the US is actually quite happy about since it keeps the reins in the coachman's hands, rather than the passengers'. The biggest problem is the coachman giving the reins away.

Israel, Saudi Arabia, various Latin American countries, and the UK have been more than willing to fight. Not to mention the former South Vietnam government and South Korea in previous wars.

Also;

This raises an interesting question; if the U.S. was struggling with internal violent conflict, would other countries send military forces to assist the U.S. government? I feel like U.S. pride would never accept that.

no takers?

 

[slit]

no takers?

It would depend on the situation but it's unlikely any country would interfere. Any future civil war that involves the world's eminent military power is too risky for outside countries to get involved in. They'd have to watch it burn.

 

[Ishan]

Israel, Saudi Arabia, various Latin American countries, and the UK have been more than willing to fight. Not to mention the former South Vietnam government and South Korea in previous wars.

Also;



no takers?

How the hell would the us govt have trouble internally militArily ?like what army splits into two parts ? . I'm not sure I get how the us would need the worlds help for an internal resistance .... It's not like these 2nd amendment ppl can actually revolt ... Once tanks start rolling in they're realize how little guns means as far as fighting the govt is concerned .


Edit plus if you're talking proper potential split you're talking two highly armed so fisticuffs nuclear armies fighting one another . No reason for the world to intervene unless there is a very clear right and wrong side . Otherwise stay the hell out of that mess . Let them fight and destroy each other / figure out a treaty etc .

 

[rokkerkory]

Culture eats strategy for breakfast and we dont even have a strategy

 

[slit]

How the hell would the us govt have trouble internally militArily ?like what army splits into two parts ? . I'm not sure I get how the us would need the worlds help for an internal resistance .... It's not like these 2nd amendment ppl can actually revolt ... Once tanks start rolling in they're realize how little guns means as far as fighting the govt is concerned .

Throughout history? Quite a few.

 

[SenorArdilla]

So the Russian guy was right and we'll see the dissolution of the USSA

???

 

[Gabriel_Logan]

As a Canadian I'd rather have the West coast.

lol your getting the friendliest part of the United States. Upper Midwest is just Canada lite.

 

[knitoe]

If I am reading this right, by 2020, we can call this guy an idiot? There are no signs the USA will collapse by then, the economy is doing fine and the military is probably going to be even stronger.

 

[Ishan]

Throughout history? Quite a few.

Edited my post for that .. Yeah no reason for any country to intervene a war between nuclear powers unless one side is clearly right and in the worlds best interests .

 

[Ishan]

If I am reading this right, by 2020, we can call this guy an idiot? There are no signs the USA will collapse by then, the economy is doing fine and the military is probably going to be even stronger.

He says influence as a global power ... He's not saying America will collapse if you read the article he even says how the republic would endure . However he is saying the current global influence thru allies etc it has isn't sustainable .


Eg lots of bases other countries allow in their soil etc .