wesleyshark
Banned
My man.
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Wkd BO 0505-0717 - Baby Groot & fam show IRL Groot & fam who's Boss
- Thread starter xaosslug
- Start date
1Now that theater counts are out, in lieu of a long rundown like I did last week, I thought I'd make a top 10 predictions with just a few notes
Code:1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 $64.4M -56.0% 2. Snatched $20.7M 3. King Arthur $20.0M 4. Fate of the Furious $4.9M -42.8% 5. Boss Baby $4.2M -29.6% 6. Beauty and the Beast $4.1M -19.4% 7. How to be a Latin Lover $3.3M -35.8% 8. Baahubali 2: The Conclusion $2.0M -41.0% 9. The Circle $1.6M -57.1% 10. The Wall $1.5M
- I'm giving Guardians 2 a slightly better drop than other Marvel films with the same release. It had a bigger Sunday decline than Iron Man 3 or Civil War or Age of Ultron, which is an indication that the Friday increase could be better.
- Snatched is currently ahead of King Arthur on movietickets.com 13% to 7%, which pretty much excludes any possibility of the latter breaking out (shocker!). In the end, I expect Mother's Day to give the edge to Snatched over the weekend.
- With no $140M+ opener this weekend, most films should experience significantly better declines than last week, the sole exception being The Circle, which will have the largest theater count decline (-1,031). Beauty and the Beast will likely benefit the most from Mother's Day, and I'm anticipating a rare increase on Sunday.
- The Wall, releasing in 541 theaters, is a total wildcard. The youtube trailer views are pretty high, so I wouldn't be surprised if I'm relatively quite wrong here, but Amazon Studios has yet to have a release open over $1.2M.
Beauty and the Beast will make out well on Mothers day. I'm sure that factored into the drop you are predicting.
I wonder if Baahubali continues to fade faster than typical though. Seeing as it is largely catering to a specific market.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
GOTG2 to have the lowest increase for an MCU sequel?
Biggest opening weekend increase, lowest final gross increase possibly?
The first one had those great legs.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
IM2 fell 1.9% from the first, and Age of Ultron had a 26.4% fall. The other first sequels got that massive post-Avengers bump, so they aren't really that comparable.GOTG2 to have the lowest increase for an MCU sequel?
Absolutely re: Beauty and the Beast. I looked at last year and how Jungle Book dropped only 2%; I feel like there's a possibility Beast could play like the Abrams Trek films on Father's Day, which increased 15% and 20% respectively.Beauty and the Beast will make out well on Mothers day. I'm sure that factored into the drop you are predicting.
I wonder if Baahubali continues to fade faster than typical though. Seeing as it is largely catering to a specific market.
Baahubali 2 could fall a lot more than I'm predicting. Dhoom 3 and Dangal did, but were skewed by a December release, while the first Baahubali didn't even play for a third weekend.
Dash_Riprock
Member
Who the fuck gives Guy Ritchie 175 million for a King Arthur movie...
The same geniuses that gave Zack Snyder control of the DCEU.
broncobuster
Banned
The same geniuses that gave Zack Snyder control of the DCEU.
And gave George Miller $150mil to blow up cars up the desert. Warners craziness is great from time to time.
And they'll give the Wachowski sisters another $200mil to make a weird sci-if movie.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
And gave George Miller $150mil to blow up cars up the desert. Warners craziness is great from time to time.
And they'll give the Wachowski sisters another $200mil to make a weird sci-if movie.
I wouldn't count on that last part anymore.
And gave George Miller $150mil to blow up cars up the desert. Warners craziness is great from time to time.
And they'll give the Wachowski sisters another $200mil to make a weird sci-if movie.
I think that Jupiter Ascending was that film. If they want another $200M budget, they will have to direct Cyborg or something.
I think that Jupiter Ascending was that film. If they want another $200M budget, they will have to direct Cyborg or something.
Final Crisis directed by the Wachowski's. 450 million dollar budget. Greatest film ever made.
Gentleman Jack
Member
Parked my ass in the theater. They are playing King Arthur on the biggest screen. 984 seats and only 4 people including me in here while the trailers are rolling lol.
I love it when you can lay across multiple seats in the theater and watch it like you're on your couch at home.
AnotherDayAnotherDollar
Banned
BOM and the-numbers also predicted > 20MM for King Arthur.
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
Final Crisis directed by the Wachowski's. 450 million dollar budget. Greatest film ever made.
Co-signed.
And I expect Grant Morrison to hand me some LSD as I enter the theater.
Co-signed.
And I expect Grant Morrison to hand me some LSD as I enter the theater.
Needs smell vision and 4d glasses
BronsonLee
Member
Warner is way into the risky shit for some reason
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
They've been desperately looking for new franchises since Harry Potter ended, which is why they wanted this to be a 6 film series (lol). That said, this project makes a lot less sense to me. The biggest film in recent history that's remotely like it is Ridley Scott's Robin Hood, and that was considered a big budget disappointment.Warner is way into the risky shit for some reason
So King Arthur huh. What a mess. The opening with giant war elephants is cool. Reminded me of LOTR. Then we get weird sped up footage of Arthur growing up. Horrible music and cuts everywhere.
Next up is eel fetish and Law being a sleazy fuck.
The sword reveals itself and Huhnam is a true bro. David Beckham randomly shows up cause why not.
I'll say this though. The visual effects are money. You can see that budget on the screen and the 3D was amazing. Legitimately one of the best 3D movies I've watched.
Next up is eel fetish and Law being a sleazy fuck.
The sword reveals itself and Huhnam is a true bro. David Beckham randomly shows up cause why not.
I'll say this though. The visual effects are money. You can see that budget on the screen and the 3D was amazing. Legitimately one of the best 3D movies I've watched.
They've been desperately looking for new franchises since Harry Potter ended, which is why they wanted this to be a 6 film series (lol). That said, this project makes a lot less sense to me. The biggest film in recent history that's remotely like it is Ridley Scott's Robin Hood, and that was considered a big budget disappointment.
King Arthur is a sacrifice by WB to make WW box office look good in comparison.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Dash_Riprock
Member
They thought King Arthur could be this years Tarzan. Only without Yates's golden touch it will never happen.
Which is weird because Tarzan was also a flop, just not as big as most people expected.
AnotherDayAnotherDollar
Banned
Spider-Man: Homecoming forecast from boxoffice.com is up here.
I actually agree with their OW prediction, but a $325M total off of $135M opening would be really bad legs in July.
Bigger opening and bigger total than I expected. They also didn't change their WW's predictions.
Warner is way into the risky shit for some reason
Are you they CEO?
Spider-Man: Homecoming forecast from boxoffice.com is up here.
I actually agree with their OW prediction, but a $325M total off of $135M opening would be really bad legs in July.
Dunkirk and Apes are the only notable rivals that month
I think Dunkirk gets Interstellar numbers. Maybe a bit lower.Dunkirk and Apes are the only notable rivals that month
I think Dunkirk gets Interstellar numbers. Maybe a bit lower.
Despicable Me 3 is a week earlier and I think that will its biggest competitor.
Despicable Me 3 is a week earlier and I think that will its biggest competitor.
Apes.
DM3 will be female and under 25 heavy. Apes will target the same audience as Homecoming.
broncobuster
Banned
I hadn't realize Dawn of Apes did quite well back in 2014. I loved the movie but for some reason had it in my head it was a modest success, closer to if not under ~$500mil. Maybe because my theater was sparsely filled when I saw it.
I hadn't realize Dawn of Apes did quite well back in 2014. I loved the movie but for some reason had it in my head it was a modest success, closer to if not under ~$500mil. Maybe because my theater was sparsely filled when I saw it.
This doesn't apply to Homecoming but it's interesting to see how close the previous Apes and Spider-Man films were. Both released in 2014.
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Domestic: $208,545,589
Foreign: $502,098,977
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Domestic: $202,853,933
Foreign: $506,128,390
Warner is way into the risky shit for some reason
Not risky, but director focused.
They built relationships with them and allow them to do their own projects. Eastwood, Nolan, Snyder, Was. Bros, etc.
Guy did Sherlock, so he's got to do his own thing.
Not risky, but director focused.
They built relationships with them and allow them to do their own projects. Eastwood, Nolan, Snyder, Was. Bros, etc.
Guy did Sherlock, so he's got to do his own thing.
Give WB one hit film and they will give you several 150M+ budgets.
Shocking news! Deadline says King Arthur is heading towards an $16.7M weekend based on Fri matinees.
http://deadline.com/2017/05/king-ar...e-galaxy-vol-2-weekend-box-office-1202091662/
They say that King Arthur looks to make $6M on Friday (including thurs previews)
They have Snatched at $6.5M on Friday.
GotG2 doesnt have a Friday listed but Deadline expects a low 60s weekend.
http://deadline.com/2017/05/king-ar...e-galaxy-vol-2-weekend-box-office-1202091662/
They say that King Arthur looks to make $6M on Friday (including thurs previews)
They have Snatched at $6.5M on Friday.
GotG2 doesnt have a Friday listed but Deadline expects a low 60s weekend.
NealMcCauley
Member
Wonder if it pulls a GitS and can't even make the revised estimates.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
I'm not entirely sold on War doing as well as Dawn domestically. The second trailer didn't generate a lot of online chatter, and Dawn didn't have especially great legs, both of which may be the result of how grim these movies are. I love them for it (and it's totally keeping with the originals), but they're easily the darkest summer blockbusters of recent times.This doesn't apply to Homecoming but it's interesting to see how close the previous Apes and Spider-Man films were. Both released in 2014.
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Domestic: $208,545,589
Foreign: $502,098,977
The Amazing Spider-Man 2
Domestic: $202,853,933
Foreign: $506,128,390
Dash_Riprock
Member
Wonder if it pulls a GitS and can't even make the revised estimates.
At this point, I think as low as $13 million is not out of the question, if suffers a Friday to Sunday collapse due to WoM.
Presales for Pirates 5 are huge in China so far (though it is early still). It could easily make more there than domestically.
Power Rangers did even worse than expected on Friday in China. Its gross there will be fairly negligible.
So it won't even beat GitS.
OrangeAtlas
Member
So it won't even beat GitS.
Not to mention Ant-Man.
All movies can beat Ant-Man.Not to mention Ant-Man.
Which is weird because Tarzan was also a flop, just not as big as most people expected.
Tarzan wasn't as big a flop because it turned out it was a nostalgia boner for older people who remembered the old show.
Prototype Viktor
Member
Dam Fast is sooooo much international than domestic
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Friday estimates are in: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=1day&sortdate=2017-05-12&p=.htm
King Arthur and Snatched did even worse than anyone expected, with $5.3M and $5.0M respectively.
King Arthur and Snatched did even worse than anyone expected, with $5.3M and $5.0M respectively.