Even factoring in weaker exchange rates, it has a $400M buffer from the last film.
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Wkd BO 123016-010216 - New Year, same old 'One' as Sing continues back-up
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Even factoring in weaker exchange rates, it has a $400M buffer from the last film.
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
Oh dear. I thought it was in a similar 'safe' window, but putting it against PotC is asking to be crushed. I don't care about it, but it doesn't deserve that either.
Also, additional reason to laugh at Ben-Hur for not being able to beat Sausage Party and Bad Moms. Suck it, Hurl.
Btw, I think expecting Thor, the most boring thing on Earth to take a less-Snydery version of Justice League is crazy, buuuut it does have War Hulk in it, so.. maybe.
It's weird to talk about Marvel movies as separate franchises now though, since they're clearly just going to 'Avenger everything' from this point on. That could get messy and boring though, so that's going to interesting to see if it can hold the momentum it has gained.
cartographer
Member
Justice League could be even worse than BvS and still clear $800 million. That's probably higher than Thor's absolute best case scenario.
I suppose Affleck could go on a murderous Anakin-style rampage in real life and then maybe Justice League would be lower than Thor.
I suppose Affleck could go on a murderous Anakin-style rampage in real life and then maybe Justice League would be lower than Thor.
Ftfy
Lord Frieza
Member
I think on trend here, and online in general, is people have a really, really hard time accepting that people actually go to movies because they like them, even movies that aren't really that good. You can prop up whatever reason you want for why SS made the bank it did, but it doesn't make the kind of money it did without people going to see because they like it. BvS may have not have crossed 1 billion like many expected, but it still made major bank. Superhero movies are bigger than ever, and the trend shows no signs of wear. People want to see the DCEU, because they want to see superhero movies, and it gives them a new flavor to try. WW isn't getting "crushed" by anything. It may not make $700 million, but the movie will make bank. Justice League will make bank, too. So will just about any major superhero movie that will be released within the next 3-4 years most likely.
In absolute terms, sure. In absolute terms, BvS made a lot of money and Justice League will make a lot of money, but until a DCEU movie can beat The Dark Knight Rises, they won't be satisfied with the initiative.
Lord Frieza
Member
Is that based on something said, or just an assumption?
The executive shuffle following BvS' release but also I assume they are really disappointed that their Batman/Superman crossover didn't make as much as the last Batman solo film.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
It sounds like just plain common sense.
cartographer
Member
It's a safe assumption that the intent wasn't to make less money on similar budgets, at least not with such a quick downtown.
Lord Frieza
Member
This is probably a safe bet then. I can't really think they expect to make DKR money on every movie, though, even every other movie.
From what I can tell that crow thread would only consist of me.
I'm a goddamn prophet! 😲 😲 😲
broncobuster
Banned
Despite passing a billion being seen as trivial nowadays, TDKRises is still a high bar to cross. Only other movies with Batman and Iron Man pass it. I agree that crossing over Batman and Superman fell short of their expectations, but it's safe to say Suicide Squad went beyond what they hoped.
I feel like the whole thing will be in jeopardy if JL doesn't cross $1 billion.
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
okay, since you're referring to me anyway, let me tell you a simple, dirty "secret" about consumer statistics: what we like doesn't actually matter to the market average.
The best way to predict consumer spending is just take last year's income and apply the general economy growth index to it. I learned -and keep willfully forgetting it- this years ago when a user perfectly predicted the NPD outcomes despite there being new systems on the market. Why is that prediction style more accurate? Because people have a predictable finite amount of money and time, and while that money filters randomly across available products, but the total remains stable due to the total amount of possible budget being tied to the population AND more importantly, the views are mutually exclusive. You can only watch one movie at a time and that time is then spent. Your consumer behavior and subsequent statistics are very predictable because you can only spend your time (and other finite resources) only once. But even so, demographics do vary per product, even if the average is the same.
(one of the reasons I think causes Cameron movies to break out is probably because they tend to have fairly equal gender characters. Not to say that only a masculine female could be a 'strong female character', but at least they're not clearly unequal in most of Cameron's movies. Avatar was kind of an exception to that, as far I can tell)
And of course, there really is a Harley Quinn appeal, if just by looking at cosplay at conventions. Characters that predictably show up clearly are more consumed than others. But a draw isn't the same as people liking the product either. Deadpool had the good fortune of being both, but that was made on a literal shoe string budget (58m) compared to SS (175m), and still made more money (783 vs 746). Imagine how SS would have done if it was actually good. Or BvS for that matter. (which did actually make abut 33% less per country than SS did, it was just released in more countries and had China too, which brought in about 98m of its own)
While I previously used a more personal perspective, with "crushed" I switched to the more statistical view that where SS was free to suck up all available budget over many weeks, and BvS too to some extend, WW will be competing directly with a franchise (PotC) known to suck everything dry around it, and the other movies around it being similar franchise trenders. So, in terms of predictions on specific items (not the general market which is predictable), it's definitely not outlandish to think a known quantity will significantly suppress the potential for anything else which happens to be around it.
Meaning that I predict that it will be 'crushed' into performing below its expected mean / average as set forth by earlier DC movies and comparing the solo and ensemble performance of Marvel movies.
To be fair, if the given budget of 120 million is accurate, anything above 250 million is a success for the movie, so there is not a ton riding on it anyway. By contrast, SS's budget was 175, and so it already needed to make at least 400 back.
Also, as much fun as this is, it's also kind of moot to discuss "how much money" a movie will make when the winning move is to simply be in cinemas to begin with. Budget doesn't matter when you only need to get in a position where you're going to make money regardless of quality. If we had to bet on movies without knowing that, all bets would be off completely.
I don't think anyone expects it to now, though. The marketing is already much more held back than that of BvS was, and JL is due this year. By this time for BvS, they had already gone into full swing, including a trailer that showed the entire frigging movie.
Dash_Riprock
Member
People (including myself) thought BvS would clear a billion easily just cause it had Bats and Supes in it.
We all know how that turned out. At this point I'm not making any prediction about JL until we see more trailers/footage.
broncobuster
Banned
That's doubtful. Warners needs a reliable franchise and, without looking up the exact figures, DC properties are their 1 and 3 biggest this year. And Suicide Squad probably would've been 2 without China. Even if they're not crossing a billion, having a reliable return on investment like that is crucial. Also consider they're at two DC movies per year whereas their #2 is an every other year Harry Potter spinoff. At worst their non-Batman movies do exceedingly poorly, and I mean, actually bombing to where it's not worth it.
BvS came out in March. JL is out in November. The trailer you mention released about three or four months before release.
If JL doesn't cross $1b I can at least see significant budget cuts on future DC projects; no more $200m+ films.
CaviarMeths
Member
Justice League will do just fine. Every DCEU movie so far has been worse than the one before it, but the grosses aren't reflecting that. It actually seems more like there's just about $295-330m worth of hardcore DC fans in the US that will turn up for any fucking thing. MCU films are all over the place in terms of gross because their characters are all over the place in terms of appeal. But the DC brand seems to attract a similar sized crowd every time.
Wonder Woman will be the true test. I have a hunch that the diehards won't be showing up for that one. It and Logan will be in a race to the bottom of the 2017 superhero grosses.
But we've also seen what the gross of a DC film looks like if it's an actual good movie. The Dark Knight is still one of only 6 (soon 7) films ever to make half a billion in the US. Wonder Woman could be the best movie ever made and not make that much of course, but it would certainly help. It's obvious by the opening weekend numbers that audiences are thirsty as hell for good DC movies.
Wonder Woman will be the true test. I have a hunch that the diehards won't be showing up for that one. It and Logan will be in a race to the bottom of the 2017 superhero grosses.
But we've also seen what the gross of a DC film looks like if it's an actual good movie. The Dark Knight is still one of only 6 (soon 7) films ever to make half a billion in the US. Wonder Woman could be the best movie ever made and not make that much of course, but it would certainly help. It's obvious by the opening weekend numbers that audiences are thirsty as hell for good DC movies.
Not every movie but I think we can agree that they are hopeful that by investing heavily on a MCU style connected universe there will be a pay off somewhere, somehow, so they can have a DC film surpass DKR again. It's not like DC is a small brand!
Is that a good number for R1?
CaviarMeths
Member
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=roguevhgdk.htm
I've just been following this. Probably makes a bit of a difference for winter vs summer (though students would be out of school for both), but R1 is still beating TDK most days.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
LEGO Batman will be the comic movie to beat this year. Quality wise at least.
Over-under on Lego Batman doing better than Justice League?
PhoncipleBone
Banned
LEGO Movie did $469m ww on a $60m budget. I don't know if LEGO Batman can go higher than that, but it has the built in awareness of both LEGO movie and Batman going for it.
No matter how good the film winds up being (and I don't see it getting as glowing reviews as LEGO Movie did), I can't see it doing near Justice League numbers, even if JL somehow only does Man of Steel business.
Although, with budgets and merch factored in, WB will make more money on LEGO Batman in the end. So much profit.
The Lego Movie made less than $500M, so highly doubt it.
Pretty good, but a lot of kids are still off school. Next week will be the test.
Lego Batman is an unusual case in that Lego is likely to take a huge cut of that merch money.
Most weekend predictions have Underworld at $12-15M, and Hidden Figures in the high teens-low 20s. Who knows how low A Monster Calls will end up going.
La La Land expands to 1500 theatres. Most of the holdovers should have decent drops given the weak competition and deflated Saturday last weekend.
I'm guessing somewhere in the $26-28M range for Rogue One this weekend. That would put it over $480M domestic, making it the second highest grossing Star Wars film domestically (unadjusted). Passing Finding Dory to take the #1 spot for the year is probably going to happen on Tuesday or Wednesday unless the weekend hold is better than I am expecting.
Sing should end up pretty close to Rogue One, but I think Rogue One will edge it out this weekend. Moana stays ahead for another week, but Sing should pass it, Fantastic Beasts, and Doc Strange within the next 10 days.
7 days until the movie event of the year!
La La Land expands to 1500 theatres. Most of the holdovers should have decent drops given the weak competition and deflated Saturday last weekend.
I'm guessing somewhere in the $26-28M range for Rogue One this weekend. That would put it over $480M domestic, making it the second highest grossing Star Wars film domestically (unadjusted). Passing Finding Dory to take the #1 spot for the year is probably going to happen on Tuesday or Wednesday unless the weekend hold is better than I am expecting.
Sing should end up pretty close to Rogue One, but I think Rogue One will edge it out this weekend. Moana stays ahead for another week, but Sing should pass it, Fantastic Beasts, and Doc Strange within the next 10 days.
7 days until the movie event of the year!
I just found out the person who wrote Monster Trucks is also writing Star Wars: Episode IX7 days until the movie event of the year!
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
7 days until the movie event of the year!
Can't wait! Movie of the year!
illmatic22
Banned
MONSTER
TRUCKS
TRUCKS
Zelenogorsk
Banned
Will Monster Trucks be the first film to crack 3 billion?
It will crack 3 billion domestically. Sky's the limit once it's released worldwide.
cartographer
Member
I just found out the person who wrote Monster Trucks is also writing Star Wars: Episode IX
"That's no space station, that's a sarlacc!"
AdventureRacing
Member
Looking at the release slate I'd be surprised if monster trucks is the worst movie I see in January.
7 days until the movie event of the year!
TIL that Monster Trucks hasn't released yet in the US. UK has had it since the 26th of December.
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
That movie "should" do okay in terms of quality though. I realize nobody knows it exists, but it shouldn't do that terrible if quality mattered.
I'm making an optimistic 100-120m bet at the end of its run. It's made 30m in a limited release, which was basically all in Spain, so someone there was doing his marketing job.
Budget is 43 million, so it's only 13 shy of clearing production budget. At any rate it should make its money back, at least.
7 days until the movie event of the year!
My friend is making me see that with him for his birthday; mostly because his birthday is next week. He seems to be looking forward to it (ironically, I think/hope) after watching the trailers.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Hopefully Underworld is a better film than AssCreed was. Man, no way a single person that wrote that movie played any of the games. They're in the past for like 3 scenes! And the plot holes!
What a waste.
What a waste.
Blood Wars is sitting at 10% and a 4/10 average on RT after 20 reviews.
Smells like quality to me.
"Smells" is a good word to use there.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Let's get real, boys. Resident Evil: The Final Chapter is the only January release that matters.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Smells like an Underworld film.
The Donnie Yen wildcard amounts to nothing then.
Dash_Riprock
Member
China hated TFA?
AntraxSuicide
Banned
I always knew it would bomb with critics, but I just want it to be a competent action film. AssCreed was really bad at that. You get like 2 scenes of quick action, and then a whooooole lot of exposition.
Between that, Underworld, and XXX, everyone can party like it's 2003.
Ya, presales never picked up.
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