I typed up what would be in the OP but I'm not so sure about it anymore (a lot of well-reviewed movies coming out this month): https://docs.google.com/document/d/1xZT_O0P9x1__WBxGELsVNXkI0-sZwTqUb4aEGk5XAWk/edit?usp=sharing
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Wkd BO 123016-010216 - New Year, same old 'One' as Sing continues back-up
- Thread starter xaosslug
- Start date
- Status
I typed up what would be in the OP but I'm not so sure about it anymore (a lot of well-reviewed movies coming out this month): https://docs.google.com/document/d/1xZT_O0P9x1__WBxGELsVNXkI0-sZwTqUb4aEGk5XAWk/edit?usp=sharing
ryutaro's mama
Member
That's an awesome trivia question.
BlackNMild2k1
Member
I know January is usually a dumping grounds month, but with Disney practically dominating every other month, and then Fox and WB filling in the gaps with big releases where they can, maybe January is now attempting be a place where otherwise overlooked movies get a chance to breath?
I mean, I know XXX isn't trying to release anywhere near a Disney/"Marvel"/Lucasfilm/DC movie which more or less has March - July locked up tight, and then Nov-Dec as well.
Deadpool proved that February can be a good month too if you market it correctly.
That doesn't leave the rest of the smaller movies a lot of months to breath in.
What is this? Phase 3's line-up is complete with 3 films already in 2018 (with the last being Ant-Man & The Wasp in July).
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
According to Box Office Mojo, Episode 3 adjusts to $510M. While Rogue One has the benefit of 3D, among other things, when all is said and done the admissions between the two will be very close (<10% difference).
Makes one realize just how much the quality of the prequels hurt their box office.
Makes one realize just how much the quality of the prequels hurt their box office.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Agreed. Great bit of trivia.
That film was a beast, and even cooler since the midnight shows didn't point to it being so huge. It just came out of nowhere and crushed everything in sight.
#NotARecord
The movie after A4. A lot of speculation that it'll be Spiderman 2. They're going to work poor Holland to death.
Yeah I remember that. Just nonsense all round.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Hahaha...those idiots! 😑
Hindsight is also 20/20.
People were looking at Marvel's insane popularity vs. SW's unknown appeal following the PT fuckery.
It wasn't an insane call to make in real time.
Very true. It's much more of a known quantity now than it was even a year ago.
Since it's a new year, and we've discussed a few top films from previous years, here's the #1 film winners for Domestic, International, and Worldwide since 1989.
Some of the numbers don't match Mojo's summary of the same films, because they lump all international (but not domestic) re-release cash under the year of release for some stupid reason. These should be the corrected values.
One film took all 3 titles in 14 of the past 28 years.
Not counting 2016 yet, in the years where the top domestic and international film were different, the domestic winner only took the worldwide crown 3 times (TFA, Toy Story, and Aladdin). The international winner was the worldwide winner the other 10 times.
Terminator 2 was the only Rated R film to take all 3 categories since the 80s. The Bodyguard, Die Hard with a Vengeance, and Saving Private Ryan were the only other R-Rated films to hit #1 in a single category.
No film has ever won the worldwide boxoffice crown without taking one of the two other categories (at least since 1989).
Some of the numbers don't match Mojo's summary of the same films, because they lump all international (but not domestic) re-release cash under the year of release for some stupid reason. These should be the corrected values.
Code:
Year #1 Domestic Film #1 International Film #1 Worldwide Film
2016 Rogue One ($530-570M) Captain America: Civil War ($745M) Captain America: Civil War (?) ($1153M)
2015 The Force Awakens ($936M) Furious 7 ($1163M) The Force Awakens ($2068M)
2014 American Sniper ($350M) Transformers: AoE ($859M) Transformers: AoE ($1104M)
2013 Catching Fire ($425M) Frozen ($876M) Frozen ($1277M)
2012 The Avengers ($623M) The Avengers ($896M) The Avengers ($1519M)
2011 Harry Potter: DH2 ($381M) Harry Potter: DH2 ($961M) Harry Potter: DH2 ($1342M)
2010 Toy Story 3 ($415M) Toy Story 3 ($652M) Toy Story 3 ($1067M)
2009 Avatar ($750M) Avatar ($2005M) Avatar ($2755M)
2008 The Dark Knight ($533M) The Dark Knight ($470M) The Dark Knight ($1003M)
2007 Spider-Man 3 ($337M) PotC: At World's End ($654M) PotC: At World's End ($963M)
2006 PotC: Dead Mans Chest ($423M) PotC: Dead Mans Chest ($643M) PotC: Dead Mans Chest ($1066M)
2005 Revenge of the Sith ($380M) Harry Potter: atGoF ($607M) Harry Potter: atGoF ($897M)
2004 Shrek 2 ($441M) Shrek 2 ($479M) Shrek 2 ($919M)
2003 Lord of the Rings: RotK ($379M) Lord of the Rings:: RotK ($742M) Lord of the Rings:: RotK ($1119M)
2002 Spider-Man ($404M) Lord of the Rings: TTT ($584M) Lord of the Rings: TTT ($923M)
2001 Harry Potter: atSS ($318M) Harry Potter: atSS ($657M) Harry Potter: atSS ($975M)
2000 How the Grinch Stole X-Mas ($260M) Mission Impossible 2 ($331M) Mission Impossible 2 ($546M)
1999 The Phantom Menace ($431M) The Phantom Menace ($492M) The Phantom Menace ($923M)
1998 Saving Private Ryan ($217M) Armageddon ($352M) Armageddon ($554M)
1997 Titanic ($601M) Titanic ($1242M) Titanic ($1832M)
1996 Independence Day ($306M) Independence Day ($511M) Independence Day ($817M)
1995 Toy Story ($192M) Die Hard with a Vengeance ($266M) Toy Story ($374M)
1994 Forrest Gump ($330M) The Lion King ($451M) The Lion King ($764M)
1993 Jurassic Park ($357M) Jurassic Park ($556M) Jurassic Park ($913M)
1992 Aladdin ($217M) The Body Guard ($289M) Aladdin ($504M)
1991 Terminator 2 ($205M) Terminator 2 ($315M) Terminator 2 ($520M)
1990 Home Alone ($286M) Ghost ($288M) Ghost ($506M)
1989 Batman ($251M) Indiana Jones: atLC ($277M) Indiana Jones: atLC ($474M)One film took all 3 titles in 14 of the past 28 years.
Not counting 2016 yet, in the years where the top domestic and international film were different, the domestic winner only took the worldwide crown 3 times (TFA, Toy Story, and Aladdin). The international winner was the worldwide winner the other 10 times.
Terminator 2 was the only Rated R film to take all 3 categories since the 80s. The Bodyguard, Die Hard with a Vengeance, and Saving Private Ryan were the only other R-Rated films to hit #1 in a single category.
No film has ever won the worldwide boxoffice crown without taking one of the two other categories (at least since 1989).
ryutaro's mama
Member
K-Swizzle is the compendium none of us deserve.
<bows>
<bows>
That's 2019 not 18 though.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Did a bit of digging on the-numbers and came up with 1984: http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/records/worldwide/1984
This is basically a cheat, though, since Grand Canyon: The Hidden Secrets is one of those IMAX docs that play essentially forever.
ryutaro's mama
Member
After Transformers 2, I decided I was done watching those films. Put it this way, I was on a 10+ hour trip back from Europe and it was one of the free movies.
IT WAS FREE, I WAS TRAPPED ON A LONG FLIGHT AND I STILL SAID NEIN.
BronsonLee
Member
Swiss confirmed to have no respect for family OR giant robutts
I doubt that is accurate given the number of IMAX screens in the 80s, and the overseas grosses of more recent big IMAX films when the films were tracked in the same manner as traditional cinema releases (T-Rex, Space Station 3D, Everest, etc). It also doesn't seem to be backed up in most places you would expect it to be backed up.
I have seen 4.5 Fast and Furious films and 2 Transformers films.
Umm
Obliterator
Member
Saw Sing today, and I though it was pretty cute. Not amazing or anything but I enjoyed it more than I thought I would
BronsonLee
Member
Furious 7 is mindless fun. Worth seeing.
I have seen all but 1 of those domestic winners (American Sniper) and all but 1 one International (Age of Extinction).
Zero interest in ever seeing either.
2 Fast 2 Furious was on TV. I had better things to do.
bananafactory
Banned
I don't know, I feel that one is going to get some real bad blowback. A lot of people just won't be able to accept anyone but Harrison in that role
I think it will be fine, since they are going the young route. It's like saying no one would accept anyone but Alec Guinness as Obi-wan, and then Ewan crushed it. With the cast and talent on board, I don't expect any blowback. Though there will be lots of comparisons.
Shogmaster
Member
If Sing makes more money than Moana at the end of the run, I will cut somebody.
Sing will pass Moana.
i think what'd probably help is if harrison endorsed the guy and liked the movie.
Illumination is doing what DreamWorks Animation tried to do for many years which is legitimately compete with Pixar/Disney at the box office. Pets didn't beat Dory (no one expected it to) but it was a hit and pretty much halted Dory's march to 500M DOM. Sing is now going to topple Moana. This is after Minions topped Inside Out WW last summer and the Despicable Me franchise is already a massive hit with another one on the way.
Every single one of their films have had a production budget under 80M.
Every single one of their films have had a production budget under 80M.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Comparing Illumination to Dreamworks is apt. With Shrek, Dreamworks had a monster series with the grosses, but time hasn't been kind to them. While Illumination films bring the money now (and far cheaper than DW did), I don't think anyone will give a shit in a couple of years.
Meanwhile, most (but not all), of Pixar's stuff will age very well.
Vault Dweller 111
Member
What is the film that can do one billion domestic? When will it happen?
movie all-stars to the rescue, featuring john boyega as finn, daniel radcliffe as harry potter, and george c scott as actual marijuana smoke or something.
BlackNMild2k1
Member
Actually it will be the Star Wars MCU crossover event. Phase 4/EpX-XII
Thanos teams up w/ the Sith Lords and the Clone Army, Guardians and The Avengers team up w/ the Jedi and the Rebellion. The final battle takes place in the Land of Avatar and James Cameron directs & produces the final movie in 48mm IMAX VR4D.
twinturbo2
butthurt Heat fan
Paramount. Monster Trucks supposedly had a $100 million writedown already, and the whitewashing blowback might be enough to sink Ghost in the Shell, even without F8 and Furious coming out two weeks later.
Transformers 5 is going to basically make or break them in 2017.
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
When the US actually has more than 500 million people to select from. Where do expect to get a 100 million people at 10 bucks per ticket from when the US only has 330 million people to select from?
TFA is an outlier because of (rich) people rewatching it often, apparently. Titanic was the only other movie to be rewatched, and perhaps Avatar (since in that case the 3D is worthwhile), and would probably surpass TFA if released today, assuming those BO's are not inflation adjusted.
I think the sudden growth of domestic gross upon the release of Avatar (750m) says more about the inclusion of 3D and the increase in the price of the ticket than it says about what is reasonably achievable. Note that the variance is pretty stable between 300-400m right till that point, and its relative growth index can be easily correlated with the population growth. Even The Dark Knight, a universally loved and praised movie beyond what other movies on that list, made only 533m domestic the year before Avatar. And as far as I know, 3D was just not a big thing before Avatar (and frankly, not that much after either, but for some reason we're still forcing that).
The same pattern shows up in the worldwide list. Avatar, TFA, and Titanic jump out, the rest is a relatively steady climb along with the world's population ( = available audience).
Someone should open up a thread on 2016 being record box office:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/2016-box-office-hits-record-114b-north-america-angst-960198
From quick google search, Spain and China had record breaking box office years. Usually all the stories are how cinemas are going to go out of business, yet........
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/2016-box-office-hits-record-114b-north-america-angst-960198
From quick google search, Spain and China had record breaking box office years. Usually all the stories are how cinemas are going to go out of business, yet........
The reboot of 'Too Many Grandmas'.
JimmyRustler
Gold Member
Quite a box office difference between Episode VII and Rogue One, despite latter being clearly the better movie overall.
Curious to see if Episode VIII numbers will be anywhere near the ones of Episode VIII. My guess is that they won't.
Curious to see if Episode VIII numbers will be anywhere near the ones of Episode VIII. My guess is that they won't.
Time to cut BronsonLee.
BronsonLee
Member
THIS IS NOT MY FAULT
So Box Office GAF, what ended up being your top 5 of the year? Mine was:
1. Arrival
2. Rogue One
3. Hell or High Water
4. Zootopia
5. The Nice Guys
Are you implying Rogue One didn't do well as well as it could have? It is going to finish with 550-600 domestically which vastly overperformed almost every single high end prediction for the film. That is an absolutely ungodly high number for a spin-off film. If anything it implies Episode 8 will be even bigger than some expected.
1. Arrival
2. Rogue One
3. Hell or High Water
4. Zootopia
5. The Nice Guys
Are you implying Rogue One didn't do well as well as it could have? It is going to finish with 550-600 domestically which vastly overperformed almost every single high end prediction for the film. That is an absolutely ungodly high number for a spin-off film. If anything it implies Episode 8 will be even bigger than some expected.
Diprosalic
Banned
I think Rogue One's 'over performance' likely leads one to believe that Episode VIII has a decent shot at being close to or exceeding VII's haul domestically.
VII ended on a pretty powerful cliffhanger and was extremely well liked by audiences. Rogue One shows the appetite for Star Wars is beyond massive domestically. And now sadly the Carrie Fisher last film factor.
The floor for 8 is 750 mil domestic. Depending how things play out should finish anywhere between 750 mil and 950 mil.
The floor for 8 is 750 mil domestic. Depending how things play out should finish anywhere between 750 mil and 950 mil.
BronsonLee
Member
I think it's got a really weird staggered release for like months on end
Right... GAF hyperbole rearing it's ugly head again.
I, and many(most?) others, liked TFA more than R1(which I still liked). TFA was also a huge comeback for the series after more than a decade of absence, and it had the stars of the old movies returning, and it is definitely a more marketable and family friendly movie than R1. So it's not really a surprise that R1 doesn't measure up to TFA in the box office.
Don't let the GAF echo chamber distort your view of the popular opinions of these two movies.
Jeffolation
Banned
Whoever green lit Monster Trucks should've been fired faster than the Duff Zero guy.
- Status