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Wkd BO 123016-010216 - New Year, same old 'One' as Sing continues back-up
- Thread starter xaosslug
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broncobuster
Banned
I forgot Hensworth was announced for it.
Martin Freeman is their secret weapon.
Obliterator
Member
Good effort Star Wars, better luck next time.
As much as I enjoyed Rogue One (more than Episode VII personally) I still liked Civil War more. So this makes me happy
Assassin's Creed won't sniff $70M domestic. Next weekend will be in the $3M range, with mass venue dumps shortly after. Maybe $55M. $60M if it magically develops legs.
The film does have a bunch of openings left, but based on what we have so far, I'd be surprised if it breaks 125M overseas minus China. I'm expecting something a lot closer to $100M.
The film is coming out in China on Feb 12th, so I guess it has has a shot at $200M+. However, no one is going to be rushing to greenlight more video game films based on that.
Best case scenario for AssCreed:
$60M domestic ($33M studio take)
$125M overseas ($50M studio take)
$50M China ($12M studio take)
Around $95M studio earnings against that $125M production budget.
What I think is more likely:
$55M domestic ($30M studio take)
$100M overseas ($40M studio take)
$25M China ($6M studio take)
$76M against the $125M production budget.
Prince of Persia was ~$150M vs its $200M production budget and was never heard from again. AssCreed is going to be in the same category.
BronsonLee
Member
Good effort Star Wars, better luck next time.
Let's congratulate Marvel when one of their films tops a billion without RDJ.
GOTG Vol 2!
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
well, for one it's been transmorphed into Vaiana here (NL), so it's not surprisingly that there is no brand overlap between countries.
I also think European are probably just not that interested in watching animation in cinema without kids.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Star Trek 4 will probably happen simply because Paramount has basically nothing in 2019 except Transformers 7 (!!!). Maybe they'll pump out World War Z 3, but the jury's out on that.
I hope World War Z 3 has 60 zombies.
Europe + Aus/NZ had no problem spending close to $400M on Minions last year.
If Star Trek 4 happens I hope they fire whoever was responsible for Beyond's marketing. Keep going in the direction they've going story wise. Continue to ignore Into Darkness the way Beyond did. Try to make it clear there is a good balance between character development, emotion and action. Beyond was a good balance I feel and what was needed. I do think Into Darkness and the marketing for Beyond hurt Star Trek Beyond. I think they can bounce back though. They also need to pick their release date better. Don't stick it in the crowded summer. Beyond was a bump for them but I don't think it's because of Beyond itself.
Maybe this is just me being painfully naive, but it seems like a bit of a stretch to assume that Moana has been a bit of a disappointment at the box office because the protagonist didn't happen to be Caucasian, especially when it's found itself competing against the likes of Fantastic Beasts and Rogue One.
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
So, that would mean it wins 'biggest bomb of the year 2016' versus previous contender for the title Ben-Hur, right? Or are we not counting 2017 earnings along with that?
Man, I want it to be that movie. It deserves it. Assassin's Creed wasn't even offensively stupid enough for Mark Kermode to include it on his 'worst movies of 2016' list, and he kind of liked AC for what it does too.
That would be with kids though, since it was mostly marketed directly at those. Moana isn't, as far I can tell.
With kids: fine. Singular person without kids: creep.
Star Trek Beyond got MUCH better on 2nd viewing (from boring to rather good.) But yes, fire the marketing guy. Fucking horrendous job.
I think the timing hurt it more than the marketing (even though the marketing was poor). That movie got buried under Bourne and Suicide Squad hype. It should have come out after those two movies turned out to be massively disappointing and been a great surprise to end the summer with.
Assassin's Creed isn't the biggest 2016 release flop, no. Probably not in the top 20 looking at films that opened wide (over 1500 venues at some point in their run). If we restrict our films to those with larger budgets (say $50M+), it still would probably miss the Top 10.
ERC Box Office named these 5 as the biggest bombs of the year (no order):
Gods of Egypt - $31M DOM, $150M WW, $140M budget
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk - $1.7M DOM, $31M WW, $40M budget
Ben-Hur - $26M DOM, $94M WW, $100M budget
Deepwater Horizon - $61M DOM, $119M WW, $110M budget
Rules Don't Apply - $3.6M DOM/WW, $25M budget
I don't agree with all of the picks for a Top 5, but all of them will be less successful than Assassins Creed.
Obliterator
Member
Idk could be total antecedal but every casual Star Trek fan I know (people who like the new movies but don't watch the show) unanimously liked Into Darkness more than Beyond
Saw it this weekend with the wife it deserves every cent it gets and then some.
The people I know preferred Beyond, so public opinion on the movie is probably just as divided as the GAF opinion.
Obliterator
Member
Yeah I guess. They pretty much all just said it was boring
I did at the time.
Mostly it's because casual people like the idea of Star Trek, but they don't want to see a big budget TOS episode.
I very much doubt that Minions hit ~$400M in EU/AUS based on kids and parents alone. If that was the case, we would see way more animated films hitting $1B.
I agree that Europe overall isn't as big on animation as the US (though animated films can make bank in France and the UK).
MHWilliams
Member
I call this the Sony Pictures Problem.
Sony technically still have James Bond right? Or has the deal with EON/MGM ran out yet.
I believe the previous deal was fulfilled once Spectre was released. No word on Sony striking a new deal.
MHWilliams
Member
It ran out with Spectre and there were reports of a bidding war in 2015. Haven't heard if the deal was renewed yet. There was a rumor that Sony was offering Craig $150 million for two more films, which would point to the deal being renewed, but that wasn't confirmed.
BronsonLee
Member
Kill the entire cast except for Zoe Saldana
150 million, fuck me sideways
I get that Spectre was draining as shit on him but take that deal Danny
I just looked at Specters production budget..... You aren't even joking.
How the fuck did it cost that much?
Inflated contracts, on location shoots, practical effects, reshoots.
BronsonLee
Member
It's all because of that kickass one-take opening
It's Tom Rothman, lol.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Lots of on location shoots in cities that are really expensive.
That exploding base at the end probably wasn't cheap, either.
Discotheque
Banned
Mendes really made some damn elegant and expensive looking movies. I could actually believe they cost that much
The problem with spectre was that it was boring as shit. But god damn did the locations and cinematography and clothes and cars etc. look amazing
The problem with spectre was that it was boring as shit. But god damn did the locations and cinematography and clothes and cars etc. look amazing
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
I still don't understand how Sony's response to Spectre's enormous budget growth and $200m+ drop from Skyfall was "let's throw even MORE money at it!". That $150m offer to Craig is fucking obscene.
BronsonLee
Member
Spectre certainly looked expensive as fuck that's for sure
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Isn't the current budget for Pirates 5 like $350M? 3 and 4 I believe are still the most expensive films ever made, even adjusted for inflation.
broncobuster
Banned
Hey, that big explosion from Spectre was cool.
BronsonLee
Member
4 should've sunk the franchise but noooooo it had to make over a billy
I bet Avatar cost more then that, but we'll never know. Just the R&D alone had to be absurd.
cartographer
Member
They've got a good thing going with smaller movies, but it seems like anything they spend a decent amount of money on is destined for poo.
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