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[jtb]

I want the networks to call it before the polls close on the west coast, just so we can drive the nail in Darrell Issa's political career.

 

[whyamihere]

I'm struggling to come up with a map that gets to 270 without CA, OR, and WA, so I don't think it'll be called before 8PST/11EST.

 

[Basileus777]

I'm struggling to come up with a map that gets to 270 without CA, OR, and WA, so I don't think it'll be called before 8PST/11EST.

There's no map that could be called before polls close in the West Coast.

 

[HylianTom]

Random:
I'm really glad that the GOP and Trump have whined loudly about emails and The Clinton Foundation for months on-end. They've desensitized the public in the event that anything actually shady surfaces, similar to how we get new reports of Trump being a skeeze and shrug it off.

 

[Emarv]

it all comes down to how quickly Florida is called, right? And that could take a while.

 

[thebloo]

Is it normal for a surrogate to speak second?

 

[witness]

!!!!!!!!

She's taking NC, GA, and IA. I'm very bullish on TX now as well. Along with the PA and VA polls, I might be OD'ing on my uncut hopium.

 

[newshinycd]

Jawja's gon' flip.

This is a wave election and Manmademan is right. I think the Democratic Party is going to win the House.

I...I'm not sure how I'm going to celebrate when Georgia is called for Hillary.

 

[Basileus777]

Dave Wasserman

VA: so far, absentee votes cast are already 59% of '12 totals in Arlington/Fairfax/Prince William. Only 45% of '12 totals everywhere else.

VA: notably, heavily Latino city of Manassas Park is already at 69% of its '12 absentee votes cast, far outpacing the state average.

Early vote pattern beginning to emerge nationally: higher enthusiasm among liberal whites & Latinos vs. '12, lower enthusiasm among AAs.

 

[whyamihere]

She's taking NC, GA, and IA. I'm very bullish on TX now as well. Along with the PA and VA polls, I might be OD'ing on my uncut hopium.

Dave Wasserman

Early vote pattern beginning to emerge nationally: higher enthusiasm among liberal whites & Latinos vs. '12, lower enthusiasm among AAs.

Are we seeing this, though? I don't get the sense of that in anywhere besides maybe OH, and NC is a bit muddled.

 

[Wiz]

Flash-forward to Election Night:

Wolf Blitzer: "it is 10PM on the East Coast, and Georgia and Texas are TOO CLOSE TO CALL!"

PoliGAF: "HA!"
FreeRepublic: "we still have a path!"

I will live for the meltdowns on election day.

 

[Atomic Playboy]

I'm struggling to come up with a map that gets to 270 without CA, OR, and WA, so I don't think it'll be called before 8PST/11EST.

I'm struggling to come up with a scenario in which Donald Trump realistically wins any of those, so they can be comfortably assumed before the polls close regardless. Unless the entire West Coast drops into the ocean on election night, news organizations won't wait on their final counts to call it.

 

[SexyFish]

Flash-forward to Election Night:

Wolf Blitzer: "it is 10PM on the East Coast, and Georgia and Texas are TOO CLOSE TO CALL!"

PoliGAF: "HA!"
FreeRepublic: "we still have a path!"

WAIT. Does FreeRepublic still exist?

I'm surprised they didn't implode after 2012.

 

[whyamihere]

I'm struggling to come up with a scenario in which Donald Trump realistically wins any of those, so they can be comfortably assumed before the polls close regardless. Unless the entire West Coast drops into the ocean on election night, news organizations won't wait on their final counts to call it.

They won't call anything until a candidate crosses 270 electoral votes, and they can't make any calls for any states before the polls close.

 

[Ecotic]

Here in Georgia I'm texting my politically agnostic friends who tell me they'd prefer Hillary that I'd treat them to dinner if they let me drive them to vote. I'm trying. It's not a bought vote, just a "congratulations for being civic minded" bonus.

 

[Gruco]

Basically, America had no choice but to suck it up and listen to Trump's hateful shit for a solid year. Now that the window is open for people to do something about it, they are jumping at the chance to let this monster know what we think of him.

 

[Bowdz]

I want the networks to call it before the polls close on the west coast, just so we can drive the nail in Darrell Issa's political career.

They won't call it until the polls close on the west coast, but they'll certainly say that Trump's paths to victory are closed off if he lose NC, FL, NH, or PA. Basically all of the states Trump needs to flip to have a viable path are on the east coast. If he loses any of them, they can start talking about how it's basically over sans a miracle.

 

[aspiegamer]

Networks won't call anything until CA closes. Even if the result is entirely obvious by then, it's the right thing to do to make sure all people had a chance to vote without knowing the results. This was a thing in 2000 where some argue that people went home after knowing early tallies.

Really, it's the right way to do it. Particular states will be held as too early or too close to call until CA clearly puts Clinton over the top, the same as it did for Obama twice.

I'm shocked at how quickly the GOP has lost Virginia. Even if IA and OH slowly trend more republican in the future, VA+NC counter it.

 

[Joeytj]

So... What office can Michelle Run for in 2 years?

Mayor of Chicago? IL governor? Those are, honestly, too corrupt for her. Maybe IL senator, but there aren't any open seats left there, unless Dick Durbin retires in 2020.

 

[HylianTom]

WAIT. Does FreeRepublic still exist?

I'm surprised they didn't implode after 2012.

Not only do they exist - they still believe that Trump is winning this thing.

 

[Slayven]

So... What office can Michelle Run for in 2 years?

Adam will create a new one for her....just Queen. The office's powers, all of them.

No. Johnson won't get 8% in Georgia. aLOLepo.

Anecdotal, but i have not heart anyone mention him down here.

She's taking NC, GA, and IA. I'm very bullish on TX now as well. Along with the PA and VA polls, I might be OD'ing on my uncut hopium.

What if McMuffin takes Utah? How does that effect the hopium quality?

 

[Laevateinn]

Mayor of Chicago? IL governor? Those are, honestly, too corrupt for her. Maybe IL senator, but there aren't any open seats left there, unless Dick Durbin retires in 2020.

If I get a chance to vote for Michelle, I'll vote 4 times. #voterfraud

 

[cartoon_soldier]

I think Vox was right here.

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/10/19/13288594/new-silent-majority

 

[Grief.exe]

I've been pretty confident we have the house now for a few weeks, and see no reason to change that prediction.

Back in the summer there were a fair amount of "what would it take for dems to win the house" articles, and consensus had that figure at +6 to +8 nationally. That's exactly where Wang was, in fact. The most pessimistic was Kyle kondik at +10 and Wang was sour on that estimate.

We're now in a situation where Hillary is comfortably POLLING at +10 among LV. not factoring in ground game from unlikely voters which gave Obama another 3 points to the final tally in 2012.

Still, there's been no change in the narrative that "dems can't win the house" despite credible polls rolling in well over +10 and early voting smashing records. It goes directly against where everyone whose job it is to predict these things put the bar back when +6 or +7 was a pipe dream, not a low level outlier.

Why? I think no one wants to be the first guy to stick his neck out on something impossible, then have to eat crow on November 9th.

It's far easier to hedge bets and play it conservative and act surprised when a flip happens, then have to walk back a narrative like Gallup did in 08 or Nate bronze did in the primaries.

I'm fucking hyped, let's do this.

 

[TumblingHippo]

I'm not going to get any sleep on the 8th but I hope it's worth it to see that army of slimey surrogates finally have to defend why they'd speak for such a hateful orange turd.

 

[Captain Pants]

How do we feel about Ohio? I feel like women will turn it blue, but I've got nothing to base that on.

 

[Y2Kev]

FUCKING CHERYL MILLS

 

[Gruco]

Clinton basically needs to win Georgia in order to hit 270 before polls close on the west coast. Even if she wins Georgia it is not going to be by enough of a margin to get called quickly....though, everyone is going to see where this is going once Florida and NC get called instantly and Texas is too close to call.

 

[Emarv]

I'm really curious what Fox News will look like on Election night. Karl Rove and Megyn Kelly won't fight again because neither believes in Trump. Basically every Fox News election night host except for Hannity and Trump surrogates will totally see this coming.

But they have to frame it in a good way for their audience. It's gonna be really interesting to see how well they walk the line between "Trump demolished, but Hillary doesn't have a mandate".

 

[Grief.exe]

How do we feel about Ohio? I feel like women will turn it blue, but I've got nothing to base that on.

Ohio has some advantages going for Trump. Less educated population, less diversity, but hopefully women, African Americans, Hillary ground game, and general Republican depressed turnout pushes Hillary over the top.

I see Ohio being less and less of a swing state going forward.

 

[Chezzymann]

WAIT. Does FreeRepublic still exist?

I'm surprised they didn't implode after 2012.

I just tried going there and its more confusing to navigate for me than 4chan

 

[Laevateinn]

How do we feel about Ohio? I feel like women will turn it blue, but I've got nothing to base that on.

Anecdotally, everyone I know from Ohio has either abandoned it or is living in complete despair (moreso than the normal amount living in Ohio induces). I'm a bit nervous about it but luckily we should be fine without it. My wife and I have finally convinced her mom to vote for Hillary so that's +1 at least.

Datawise, it's basically a tie.

 

[RustyNails]

Isn't that gif from the macarenas thing?

Why was 90's so corny. Answer me adam.

 

[Slayven]

I'm really curious what Fox News will look like on Election night. Karl Rove and Megyn Kelly won't fight again because neither believes in Trump. Basically every Fox News election night host except for Hannity and Trump surrogates will totally see this coming.

But they have to frame it in a good way for their audience. It's gonna be really interesting to see how well they walk the line between "Trump demolished, but Hillary doesn't have a mandate".

I bet Karl Rove will eat a nice steak dinner, enjoy a great scotch, and turn in early. Who wants to spend all night around a dumpster fire?

 

[TheCrow]

I just tried going there and its more confusing to navigate for me than 4chan

Ok, so I wasn't the only one who actually couldn't find the forum even though I clicked the "forum" link. I recently finished reading the 2012 election threads and it was quite fun.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Clinton basically needs to win Georgia in order to hit 270 before polls close on the west coast. Even if she wins Georgia it is not going to be by enough of a margin to get called quickly....though, everyone is going to see where this is going once Florida and NC get called instantly and Texas is too close to call.

yup. Arizona at 10:00 EST would be too close to call for her to win it within an hour til 11:00 EST. Georgia will have been closed 4 hours ago from 7:00 EST to 11:00 EST

 

[dramatis]

Michelle is worth Bernie, Forma and Biden combined. Just an incredible surrogate this election.

That first night of the DNC, everybody not named Michelle was forgotten

 

[RustyNails]

Dakota Access Pipeline protestors are rioting now, setting things on fire. This could get ugly.

 

[Grief.exe]

That first night of the DNC, everybody not named Michelle was forgotten

Yep. Stark contrast with the scary rhetoric of the RNC.

I will have to watch it again.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Isn't that gif from the macarenas thing?

Why was 90's so corny. Answer me adam.

It was all that hope and optimism. Made people very lame. The 00's took that right out.

 

[Holmes]

For the race to be called before 11pm est, Hillary needs to carry FL, NC, OH, IA and NV before 11. It's possible. I think the media might hold back even if it's looking like she'll carry them all before then. The AP might, but CNN would.

 

[Captain Pants]

Ohio has some advantages going for Trump. Less educated population, less diversity, but hopefully women, African Americans, Hillary ground game, and general Republican depressed turnout pushes Hillary over the top.

I see Ohio being less and less of a swing state going forward.

I keep forgetting the ground game advantage. I suspect that carries the day, even if it ends up being close.

Anecdotally, everyone I know from Ohio has either abandoned it or is living in complete despair (moreso than the normal amount living in Ohio induces). I'm a bit nervous about it but luckily we should be fine without it. My wife and I have finally convinced her mom to vote for Hillary so that's +1 at least.

Datawise, it's basically a tie.

I have to think that living in a swing state would be exhausting. I know what I'm going to get here in Idaho, so there's not much to do locally but vote and wait, and laugh at all the salt from relatives over the following week.

 

[GhaleonEB]

I will live for the meltdowns on election day.

Hopium is going to mix with schadenfreude to form a cocktail I won't come down from for days.

 

[User 463088]

Okay,

Bad Nate's model just moved 2 points towards Trump due to the following polls:

NC +4
VA+12
IA (tie) (that they adjust to +1
GA-1 (adjusted to a tie)

National +5

And then one of those Remington polls showing Trump ahead by 10 in MO.

THIS IS STUPID.

 

[Good Job Bob]

Are we seeing this, though? I don't get the sense of that in anywhere besides maybe OH, and NC is a bit muddled.

Follow up tweet from him is showing low black turn-out in VA as well:

@Redistrict
VA: early vote is at only 36% of '12 total in Newport News, 37% in Norfolk, 37% in Petersburg, 28% in Portsmouth. Low AA enthusiasm.

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

For the race to be called before 11pm est, Hillary needs to carry FL, NC, OH, IA and NV before 11. It's possible. I think the media might hold back even if it's looking like she'll carry them all before then. The AP might, but CNN would.

Wouldn't it be game over when NC is called for Clinton?

 

[RustyNails]

It was all that hope and optimism. Made people very lame. The 00's took that right out.

Yeah everything was corny, fluff and lame. Still cant believe Hillary Gump was a thing and...it was a hit. Lol. I think the 9/11 attacks threw cold water on our faces as we were happily dreaming, starting the trend of gritty realism.

 

[Atomic Playboy]

They won't call it until the polls close on the west coast, but they'll certainly say that Trump's paths to victory are closed off if he lose NC, FL, NH, or PA. Basically all of the states Trump needs to flip to have a viable path are on the east coast. If he loses any of them, they can start talking about how it's basically over sans a miracle.

Yeah, they won't "call" it, but they'll start projecting Clinton the winner when Florida gets called. Different terminology, same result; the horse race narrative dies pretty quickly on election night.

 

[kadotsu]

THIS IS STUPID.

Just so much uncertainty!

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Okay,

Bad Nate's model just moved 2 points towards Trump due to the following polls:

NC +4
VA+12
IA (tie) (that they adjust to +1
GA-1 (adjusted to a tie)

National +5

And then one of those Remington polls showing Trump ahead by 10 in MO.

THIS IS STUPID.

Last Qpac Iowa poll was Trump +7 as well. The TRENDZ should have had a greater effect as per their own explanations. What an absurd model. This is the best batch of Qpac polls since August.