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Wkd BO 04•14-16•17 - Can't fight fate, Baby: F8 leaves WW B.O. opening record in dust

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I tweeted about Star Wars getting bumped out of the top 10 by Beauty & the Beast yesterday, and took the time to make sure that people spotted K-Swiss' Better Than Adjusted metric in the ensuing thread.

The people clicking on it seem to dig it a lot
 
Guess all those Avatar 2 estimates don't matter now, eh?

giphy.gif
 
Which means that if Disney wanted, they could move everything through Episode 9 to December and not have to run into it.

Mind you, they still seem like they don't want to right now, but the option is there to be taken.
 

kswiston

Member
Looks like F8 did indeed drop over 70% in China this weekend. My guess would be 72% based on Fri/Sat.

I tweeted about Star Wars getting bumped out of the top 10 by Beauty & the Beast yesterday, and took the time to make sure that people spotted K-Swiss' Better Than Adjusted metric in the ensuing thread.

The people clicking on it seem to dig it a lot

I will have to look at expanding it at some point.
 

kswiston

Member
To the surprise of no one, Beauty and the Beast opened this weekend in Japan, and it is looking to be huge. First weekend should be somewhere over $10M. That puts it in good shape for $100M+ in Japan.
 
Much darker of a film than I expected tbh

That's odd, I was expecting it to be much much darker than you get by the end. They abstract away a lot of the unfortunate implications of what they get away with until the very end, but I was really sure the very ending would be much darker.
 

kswiston

Member
No it hasn't. 2010s don't end until James Cameron says so.

If you want to get technical, the decade should end with a __0 year. The Gregorian Calendar starts with 1 AD/CE, not 0. So the first 10 years/decade was 1 AD to 10 AD.

But at some point, we collectively decided that starting the decade with a new number felt better, and that first decade was short changed a year. Since everyone alive in 1AD was dead by this point, they didn't get a vote :p
 

Schlorgan

Member
Paramount better start getting some real projects going if they want to get out of their slump. Viacom is still pretty healthy overall, so if they can get the right people making the right decisions for that division, they could come back.

Waiting and hoping for Transformers to make up the money lost from movies that should never have been greenlit in the first place (Ben-Hur, Monster Trucks, GitS) is not healthy practice.
 

twinturbo2

butthurt Heat fan
Paramount better start getting some real projects going if they want to get out of their slump. Viacom is still pretty healthy overall, so if they can get the right people making the right decisions for that division, they could come back.

Waiting and hoping for Transformers to make up the money lost from movies that should never have been greenlit in the first place (Ben-Hur, Monster Trucks, GitS) is not healthy practice.

Paramount should do a sequel to the best movie they ever made, Days of Thunder.

I want you to go out and hit the pace car, Cole.
 

kswiston

Member
Weekend Studio Estimates

1) Fate of the Furious - $38.6M (-61%) - $164M total
2) The Boss Baby - $12.8M (-20%) - $137M total
3) Beauty and the Beast - $10.0M (-27%) - $471M total
4) Born in China - $5.1M
5) Going in Style - $5.0M (-20%) - $32M total
6) Smurfs: The Lost Village - $4.9M (-28%) - $33M total
7) Unforgettable - $4.8M
8) Gifted - $4.5M (+46%) - $11M total
9) The Promise - $4.1M -> Production budget = $90M
10) The Lost City of Z - $2.2M
11) Phoenix Forgotten - $2.0M

...

18) Ghost in the Shell - $900k (-64%)



- It looks like Monster Trucks doesn't even get to be the bomb of the year, as the Promise rips up the charts with an opening weekend equaling less than 5% of its production budget.

- Fate of the Furious did quite well given its weekday numbers. Close to what I outlined as the (realistic) best case scenario a few days ago based on Wednesday's performance.

- Beauty and the Beast will pass The Phantom Menace on the domestic charts later this week. It is now $11M ahead of Finding Dory at this point in its run. It needs to be $14M ahead to hit $500M domestic. that should happen given the competition next weekend.


Worldwide updates

Beauty and the Beast - $1.100B
Fate of the Furious - $908M
Ghost in the Shell - $163M <- $200M WW is dead. $170M is probably where this ends up.
 

Schlorgan

Member
Poor Monster Trucks. Can't even flop right.

I liked BatB way more than I thought I would so I understand why it's doing so well.

I hope to see F8 before it leaves theaters.

Ghost in the Shell - $163M <- $200M WW is dead. $170M is probably where this ends up.
So $170m in profit for Paramount instead of $200m.

Still doing better than Ant-Man at least.

;P
 
...

18) Ghost in the Shell - $900k (-64%)


Worldwide updates

Ghost in the Shell - $163M <- $200M WW is dead. $170M is probably where this ends up.

Wow. Reminder to me, don't talk shit about Divergent, lol. Even a domestic bomb, I expected GiTS to at least past Allegient worldwide. It isn't even going to do that.

Jokes on me.
 

kswiston

Member
Fate of the Furious dropped 73% in China this weekend, but the total there is already $301M without service charges, and $319M with service charges.

Fate of the Furious is still about $100M ahead of Furious 7 worldwide after 2 weekends, but that will reverse in the next week. F7 only had 1 day in China up to this point.
 

kswiston

Member
A friendly reminder that A Dog's Purpose made more than Ghost in the Shell. People would rather see dogs repeatedly dying than GitS.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Nothing comes close to GitS's amazing 97% drop record.

Weekend Studio Estimates
18) Ghost in the Shell - $900k (-64%)

Ghost in the Shell - $163M <- $200M WW is dead. $170M is probably where this ends up.

Holy hell. I missed that 2nd week China drop, that's incredible. It's going to just inch across $40m in the US. I was rooting for this one to tank, but I didn't actually think it was going to, at least not that hard.
 

kswiston

Member
I will repost this in the new thread, but here's an update of my graph comparing BatB and now Fate of the Furious to other films that ended up in the $1.05-1.35B range.

jkK9XZr.png


The last column is the final WW total, not weekend #8

For films with advanced overseas campaigns, I counted the cumulative total of the weekend before the US release as week 1.
 
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