It's looking very good so far. They really have the northern seats pretty damn good.
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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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It's looking very good so far. They really have the northern seats pretty damn good.
Broken Joystick
At least you can talk. Who are you?
Papers were right. He's a threat to our national security.
milanbaros
Member?
What did they predict?
What has made their model so good so far?
ElectronicOldMen
Banned
Real results seem to be closer to the YouGov poll than the Exit Poll, in favour of the Cons in the Exit Poll, but the YouGov poll says the Cons will get 12 less seats than the Exit poll does.
itsbenoclock
Member
UKIP vote sliding to Tories as predicted, I still have faith in the exit poll though. I won't have my dreams of a hung parliament smashed.
Art Teitlebaum
Member
Conflicting signals indeed.
Captain Smirk
Member
Elderly Tory postal voters fuck up the exit poll no doubt
JonnyDBrit
Member
Man, looking at the YouGov poll, I realise Britain has been standardised into a Civ V map.
In two of the seats, the Tories got a small swing. In the third of the seats declared, a smallish swing to Labour. On "scant evidence", the Conservatives benefit from constituencies with higher leave votes.
Or is your country realigning in more ways than being considered just by an exit poll? The EU referendum result breaking older voting patterns, and the activation of younger voters shocked by that referendum? The SNP wave receding? What will the UK look like tomorrow?
Or is your country realigning in more ways than being considered just by an exit poll? The EU referendum result breaking older voting patterns, and the activation of younger voters shocked by that referendum? The SNP wave receding? What will the UK look like tomorrow?
Herr Schwarz
Banned
Here we go Labour, here we go!
Huw_Dawson
Member
Yougov's predictions don't match the idea that Cambridge is close so I'm not sure what to think. Hmm.
It's the North East though. And the "Leave" vote was exceptionally strong there I think.
Fuck it. I'm going to bed. I'm sure I'll wake up to either a baby crying (thanks little guy) and an overall Conservative majority.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
CON 302
LAB 269
SNP 44
LD 12
PC 2
Green 1
Other 2
-----
NI 18
YouGov's model has the advantage of breaking things down regionally, so unlike the exit poll you can actually see the regional disparities. If anything, the results have been moderately more pro-Labour than I'd have expected (very marginally, don't get excited).
Most postal votes come in early, which was before the worse of the Maybot crashes.
Charles Brandon
Member
exit poll suggest the forces of light may be holding their own
early results belie that somewhat
conclusion: time to drink heavily
QuicheFontaine
Member
10% swings to Tory in safe labour seats, definite Tory majority incoming
Doctor_Thomas
Member
Right, I'm away to bed and hopefully I'll wake up tomorrow with a socialist PM.... but, if not, we still have work to do to fix the UK. The divisions run so deep and while we could have a good outcome, we still need to fix society as a whole. Stop letting it be run by billionaires.
So basically still pretty good for Labour if you ignore how the original exit polls shot up everyone's expectations to the moon
chromatic9
Member
1.22 might be worth writing home about. 1.274 when it's been trading 1.28-1.30 is just nothing at all.
Theonik
Member
3 way race according to my mates.
E: Lab boots on the ground though.
Guerrillas in the Mist
Member
Hmm, postal votes would possibly explain the deviations from the exit polls and also how yougov model is so accurate so far. That means that in other seats/regions there should be a correction in favour of the Labour compared to the exit-poll if this continues.
Audioboxer
Member
A good Tory majority, SNP fucked and exit polls embarrassed. Good times by 6am.
Responsible way going forward
Royal_Phalanx
Member
Youth turnout is higher than expected according to BBC
Red Arremer
Member
Prepare for the moistest, most gluttonous chocolate cakes, David.
How about this?
But it was only because they took the ukip vote. It's not like Tories took votes from Labour. I don't see the concern. Of course ukip voters will change to Tory before labour.
No, UKIP disbanding would be bad, the remaining voters in UKIP will probably go vote for conservatives.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
It's not postal votes. Has nothing to do with that. It's just: the exit poll shows you the national swing. Regional areas have different regional politics. We've only really seen results from one region.
Imagine: two equal sized regions, A and B. A has a +12 Blue swing. B has a +12 Red swing. A perfect exit poll will show 0 swing. We're at the point where A's result has come in and we're saying "fuck, the exit poll is all wrong!".
How about this?
Beautiful (if not literally).
Muffin1611
Banned
How long until we know the full results?
Prepare for the moistest, most gluttonous chocolate cakes, David.
How about this?
Fucking hell!
What seats would they even win in that case?
Better have another display picture change ready.
Not really. Most of the seats labour are gaining won't be in their heartlands but in the cities and other areas were youth turnout is high. Conservative seats in the southwest and east like Rudd's are in danger of flipping.
Things won't start shaping up for another 2 hours at least.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
What happened at that poll where the students were being turned away?
Stead Fast
Banned
I have been, it's a pretty weird drinking game as it starts off SLOW, but by early morning picks up something fierce.
Also, Drink No. 4!!!!!!!
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