• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Ha

Walker looks pretty solid in the polling I've seen, and despite liberal's best intentions to smear Wisconsin's economic state, they still have one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country.
Click to expand...
yeah okay

eznark said:
Just like he did in 2010. And just like Prosser. Your skills at prognostication are far too heavily influenced by your emotions.

He might lose, but your track record on Wisconsin elections is dismal.
Click to expand...
That's actually a fair assessment, but I think once the ball gets rolling, Walker will be a sitting duck (lowest income growth/job growth in the nation from Mr. "I want to add 250k jobs" is going to have some impact). And in fairness, the Kloppenburg/Prosser race was extremely close.

Also, Obama's leading on Gallup 49-42. Nothing? Not even a peep? That's funny, when Romney was up by 5 it was all over the news!
 
E

eznark

Banned
Like I said earlier if Walker does lose, the nice thing about Wisconsin elections is that there is always next year!

Actually, the one impact of a Barrett win could be positive (in my view) in that should the Courts kill Voter ID it's unlikely he would sign a revised bill. Other than that? There simply isn't a whole lot for him to do and he o
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
eznark said:
Like I said earlier if Walker does lose, the nice thing about Wisconsin elections is that there is always next year!

Actually, the one impact of a Barrett win could be positive (in my view) in that should the Courts kill Voter ID it's unlikely he would sign a revised bill. Other than that? There simply isn't a whole lot for him to do and he o
Click to expand...
Democrats claiming the State Senate would have a more substantial effect.

If Barrett won and there was still a GOP legislature it wouldn't stop them from passing all sorts of crazy shit. It'd be the situation in MN with Dayton and the GOP-dominated (using that phrase loosely) legislature.

I'm sure even if Walker wins the recall they'll pick up a seat or two from the Senate recalls. PPP had them all as uphill slogs but one of them looked pretty good.

MORE HEAD-TO-HEADS OF OBAMA AND ROMNEY (from PPP!)

Barack Obama 49 (job approval 47-48, favorability 50-46)
Mitt Romney 44 (favorability 38-48)

And as always, the most excited racial group to vote are blacks and Hispanics.
 
E

eznark

Banned
Democrats already have essentially a majority in the Senate. Democrats were able to kill the mining bill, which proved it.

Like I said, since neither side has significant legislation on the table, the election is mostly theater.

It'll be funny if Walker is recalled and Newman wins the senate seat though.
 
M

markatisu

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Democrats claiming the State Senate would have a more substantial effect.

If Barrett won and there was still a GOP legislature it wouldn't stop them from passing all sorts of crazy shit. It'd be the situation in MN with Dayton and the GOP-dominated (using that phrase loosely) legislature.

I'm sure even if Walker wins the recall they'll pick up a seat or two from the Senate recalls. PPP had them all as uphill slogs but one of them looked pretty good.

MORE HEAD-TO-HEADS OF OBAMA AND ROMNEY (from PPP!)

Barack Obama 49 (job approval 47-48, favorability 50-46)
Mitt Romney 44 (favorability 38-48)

And as always, the most excited racial group to vote are blacks and Hispanics.
Click to expand...

This might finally be the year the GOP realizes their only voters are old white men, then again they have had 2 cycles to realize that and still have not so another blowout in latinos/blacks/women/youth is probably not going to do anything
 
T

Tim-E

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Democrats claiming the State Senate would have a more substantial effect.

If Barrett won and there was still a GOP legislature it wouldn't stop them from passing all sorts of crazy shit. It'd be the situation in MN with Dayton and the GOP-dominated (using that phrase loosely) legislature.

I'm sure even if Walker wins the recall they'll pick up a seat or two from the Senate recalls. PPP had them all as uphill slogs but one of them looked pretty good.

MORE HEAD-TO-HEADS OF OBAMA AND ROMNEY (from PPP!)

Barack Obama 49 (job approval 47-48, favorability 50-46)
Mitt Romney 44 (favorability 38-48)

And as always, the most excited racial group to vote are blacks and Hispanics.
Click to expand...


I would like to meet the 4% of those who identify as Tea Party members who plan on voting for Obama.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Democrats claiming the State Senate would have a more substantial effect.

If Barrett won and there was still a GOP legislature it wouldn't stop them from passing all sorts of crazy shit. It'd be the situation in MN with Dayton and the GOP-dominated (using that phrase loosely) legislature.

I'm sure even if Walker wins the recall they'll pick up a seat or two from the Senate recalls. PPP had them all as uphill slogs but one of them looked pretty good.

MORE HEAD-TO-HEADS OF OBAMA AND ROMNEY (from PPP!)

Barack Obama 49 (job approval 47-48, favorability 50-46)
Mitt Romney 44 (favorability 38-48)

And as always, the most excited racial group to vote are blacks and Hispanics.
Click to expand...

How the hell does Romney get 39% of union households?
 
R

RDreamer

Member
I think the Walker race is going to be extremely close, but I still kind of think he might escape with his job. The dude's got a metric fuckton of money and has flooded the TV with ads for a long time now. It'll be a nail biter for sure
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Tim-E said:
lol and some people still pretend that Michigan is a swing state.



A lot of people in West Virginia think the EPA should no longer exist because they're actually doing their job here.
Click to expand...

Damn! on Michigan. Saving the auto biz was huge.


Yeah, West Virginia is coal country . . . and that really is a biz that is going to get hit by EPA regulations. And I'm sorry but it deserves it. With abundant natural gas, pollution-free wind, solar prices that dropped by an order of magnitude, and a possible nuclear renaissance there just isn't a good reason to build more coal plants these days. Even with good scrubbers, it is a dirty, dangerous, and CO2 intensive energy source. Dems are going to have trouble in coal country.
 
E

eznark

Banned
A female dominated poll with 40% democrats and 34% republicans has Romney within 5%? Seems like there are a lot of positives in those results for Romney fans like PD.
 
N

NihonTiger90

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Look at Michigan.
Click to expand...

Fun fact: Stabilize auto industry, Michigan unemployment goes down. They've been diversifying over the past 10-15 years for sure, but there's still such a big chain effect from the Big Three to their suppliers to the money all their employees spend at other businesses, too.

No bailout and those industries go through massive bankruptcy? 20 to 25 percent reported unemployment in that state is not impossible.
 
B

Black Republican

Member
Just flicking through channels and caught on MSNBC that Eric Cantor is a fan of Jigga, Wiz Khalifa and Young Jeezy? i knew Rubio was a fan of hiphop, but Cantor? lol wow
 
R

RoninChaos

Member
GhaleonEB said:
I agree, though with the added note that Romney's primary cost him a great deal. The race was just long enough that enough people tuned in while he was at his worst and formed opinions based on the last stages of the race, cratering his favorables.

TPM had a good piece today noting how the Hispanic vote isn't really up for grabs - it's already solidified around Obama. I suspect that's going to prove to be the case for the demographics that are key to Obama's reelection.


An uneducated populace, and a country with gutted energy regulations? Sounds like GOP heaven.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I figure as much, but it still astounds me that dismantling the education is something that people could go for. Especially folks with children. I don't see what kind of narrative can be spun to destroy our education system.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
eznark said:
A female dominated poll with 40% democrats and 34% republicans has Romney within 5%? Seems like there are a lot of positives in those results for Romney fans like PD.
Click to expand...
I can't find results on google for some reason, but that breakdown is pretty close to the actual 2008 electorate; Dems have a party ID advantange.

NihonTiger90 said:
Fun fact: Stabilize auto industry, Michigan unemployment goes down. They've been diversifying over the past 10-15 years for sure, but there's still such a big chain effect from the Big Three to their suppliers to the money all their employees spend at other businesses, too.

No bailout and those industries go through massive bankruptcy? 20 to 25 percent reported unemployment in that state is not impossible.
Click to expand...

Yup, that was my implied point. What the auto restructuring did for Michigan is clear, and I think it will have a large impact on the election result. Romney has no chance there.
RoninChaos said:
Yeah, I figure as much, but it still astounds me that dismantling the education is something that people could go for. Especially folks with children. I don't see what kind of narrative can be spun to destroy our education system.
Click to expand...

It's ongoing: They're just teaching them evolution, atheism and how they can't say the pledge of allegiance like good god-fearing folks. We’re better off without those union-run schools sucking down taxpayer dollars with no accountability, etc. etc.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PD is in full meltdown. I can't help but feel partially responsible.

Romney leads Obama by 7 in Texas, 50-43 (PPP just tweeted it but their homepage doesn't have anything yet). This probably won't be the year Democrats finally win Texas, but it's a tightening from 2008 when McCain won by 13 points. And - surprise - it's because Obama is doing well with Hispanics and youth! Too bad they're so disappointed they won't bother to turn out.
 
M

markatisu

Member
Aaron Strife said:
PD is in full meltdown. I can't help but feel partially responsible.

Romney leads Obama by 7 in Texas, 50-43 (PPP just tweeted it but their homepage doesn't have anything yet). This probably won't be the year Democrats finally win Texas, but it's a tightening from 2008 when McCain won by 13 points. And - surprise - it's because Obama is doing well with Hispanics and youth! Too bad they're so disappointed they won't bother to turn out.
Click to expand...

I am going to enjoy the day Texas finally flips, it will happen sometime in the next 3-4 cycles
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
GhaleonEB said:
I agree, though with the added note that Romney's primary cost him a great deal. The race was just long enough that enough people tuned in while he was at his worst and formed opinions based on the last stages of the race, cratering his favorables.

TPM had a good piece today noting how the Hispanic vote isn't really up for grabs - it's already solidified around Obama. I suspect that's going to prove to be the case for the demographics that are key to Obama's reelection.
Click to expand...

Ghal, I hope you are right with your point about Romney.

My main concern is that the GE campaign will be long enough that the Media will help people forget what Romney did during the primary.

http://www.salon.com/2012/04/24/how_the_media_helps_mitt/

The second thing, and I’ve mentioned this before, is a basic incredulity at the idea that Romney actually sits on the right-wing of the Republican Party. Political observers still assume that we’re working with a “Massachusetts moderate,” who will return to the center as soon as its politically safe to do so.
Click to expand...

The Media WILL allow Romney to succesfully pivot to the center (their version of what the center is at least). Democrats challenge is how they can bypass the media and stop this pivot.

Also, next week, we get April Employment Numbers I believe. That will be interesting.
 
M

markatisu

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
Ghal, I hope you are right with your point about Romney.

My main concern is that the GE campaign will be long enough that the Media will help people forget what Romney did during the primary.

http://www.salon.com/2012/04/24/how_the_media_helps_mitt/
Click to expand...

You realize this is Romney we are talking about, he is still getting dinged for comments and decisions he made years ago. Plus the Obama campaign is going to throw ads highlighting it.

The media wants people to forget so they can get a level playing field and have an interesting story, but they can only do so much.

Your belief that the media is going to somehow erase Romney being Romney is kinda scary, if they had that power Romney would have never faced the issues he did with Santorum or Gingrinch

Not to mention you seem to be implying the only way Obama can win with any advantage is if people see how pandering Romney was during the primary. Romney had disadvantages long before the primary, its why he lost to McCain in 2008 and why he had no chance in hell at beating Kennedy years before that.

Romney will lose based on the economy and him being a pandering ass who stands for nothing, what he did in the primary is just a gift for the Obama campaign to highlight
 
G

gcubed

Member
Aaron Strife said:
PD is in full meltdown. I can't help but feel partially responsible.

Romney leads Obama by 7 in Texas, 50-43 (PPP just tweeted it but their homepage doesn't have anything yet). This probably won't be the year Democrats finally win Texas, but it's a tightening from 2008 when McCain won by 13 points. And - surprise - it's because Obama is doing well with Hispanics and youth! Too bad they're so disappointed they won't bother to turn out.
Click to expand...

and its only april
 
T

Tim-E

Member
speculawyer said:
Yeah, West Virginia is coal country . . . and that really is a biz that is going to get hit by EPA regulations. And I'm sorry but it deserves it. With abundant natural gas, pollution-free wind, solar prices that dropped by an order of magnitude, and a possible nuclear renaissance there just isn't a good reason to build more coal plants these days. Even with good scrubbers, it is a dirty, dangerous, and CO2 intensive energy source. Dems are going to have trouble in coal country.
Click to expand...

Yup. This state is ran almost entirely by democrats, but they're all pro-coal, pro-gun, and anti-abortion. You won't make it far in this state if you don't strongly stand by those three points. I agree with the point that the coal industry deserves it, and I live in a county that's probably one of the most coal-dependent in the country. People around here laugh at the idea of diversifying our sources of energy, but it's a fact that coal is on it's way out. This state is going to be in even worse economic shape in a few decades than it already is if it doesn't accept the fact that coal is dying and start looking at ways to bring other kinds of energy jobs to the state. People don't want to hear that, though. They want to pretend that coal will and should be around forever regardless of the impact. The coal lobby is so powerful here that it's going to take things getting seriously bad before other options are considered.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
Guy, guys, GUYS, since Romney is focused on the GE now, it's left Dr. Ron Paul an opening to sweep in on all five primaries and win ALL THE DELEGATES. The Revolution begins tonight! Dr. Paul will see you suckers at the convention!
 
F

Flying_Phoenix

Banned
Tim-E said:
Guy, guys, GUYS, since Romney is focused on the GE now, it's left Dr. Ron Paul an opening to sweep in on all five primaries and win ALL THE DELEGATES. The Revolution begins tonight! Dr. Paul will see you suckers at the convention!
Click to expand...

Ron Paul's done for. He has left a legacy though.

220px-Rand_Paul,_official_portrait,_112th_Congress_alternate.jpg
 
T

Tim-E

Member
In other news, Obama will be grilled in an intense foreign policy interview on Jimmy Fallon tonight.

Actually, people are saying he participates in the Slow Jam the News segment, which should be pretty funny.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Not really politics but . . . .

The John Edwards case is a bit a farce. Yeah, the guy is a scumbag and a liar. But this whole campaign contribution thing is a bit of a stretch. It would be illegal for him to spend campaign contributions on supporting a mistress. So how can you prosecute people giving money to support the mistress as being undeclared illegal campaign contributions?

If they declared the money as contributions, it still would have been illegal. No matter how they spend money on her, it would be illegal . . . that doesn't seem to make sense.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Officerrob said:
They will stay home (for the rest of the primaries)
Click to expand...

Maybe not. It will be interesting to see if there continues to be an anti-Romney vote. Maybe Newt will get a resurgence? maybe Ron Paul will bring in more than 10%. Maybe people will continue to vote for Santorum.

It will be very interesting to see the turn-out and what the total of Romney votes versus not-Romney votes is.

I have no idea what will happen.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Looks like Romney is planning quite a barn burner speech tonight to set off the general election
At a speech in New Hampshire Tuesday night, Mitt Romney is scheduled to declare victory in the primaries and set about kicking off a general election campaign focused on economic issues.

From the prepared remarks, sent to reporters by the Romney campaign:

Is it easier to make ends meet? Is it easier to sell your home or buy a new one? Have you saved what you needed for retirement? Are you making more in your job? Do you have a better chance to get a better job? Do you pay less at the pump?

If the answer were “yes” to those questions, then President Obama would be running for re-election based on his achievements…and rightly so. But because he has failed, he will run a campaign of diversions, distractions, and distortions. That kind of campaign may have worked at another place and in a different time. But not here and not now. It’s still about the economy …and we’re not stupid.
Click to expand...
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/romney-its-still-about-economy-were-not-stupid

Great line!

He also plans on addressing fairness (in one of the weaker parts of the speech imo): http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/romney-to-lay-out-fairness-agenda-in-primetime
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher
338 339 340 341 342
17K
2M
UselessNapkin replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
395 396 397 398 399
20K
2M
RDreamer replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
396 397 398 399 400
20K
2M
ShironRedshift replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
393 394 395 396 397
20K
2M
Zaraki_Kenpachi replied
  • Locked
Poligaf 2017 |OT| It Almost Isn't Fair
9
3K
Bonen no Max'd replied
Top Bottom