• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
B

Black Mamba

Member
PhoenixDark said:
In short, Obama voters will stay home, leading to a Romney victory. Hubris before the final fall
Click to expand...

Problem with this is it usually acts in the opposite way. Polls tend to underestimate blowouts because people don't go to vote for losers and people love to vote for winners.

And in states that are close, everyone shows up.
 
B

Black Republican

Member
Pretty significant dropoff
jM65F934WJ1VD.jpg
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Ann Romney said:
“I love the fact that there are also women out there that don’t have a choice, that they must go to work and they still have to raise the kids,” Romney said. “Sometimes life isn’t easy for any of us.”
Click to expand...

At a Fund Raiser. Winner for me though is...

“Some people think that I didn’t work,” Romney said. “I didn’t have help for many, many years.”
Click to expand...
 
J

Jonm1010

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
At a Fund Raiser. Winner for me though is...
Click to expand...

See, Im ok when Romney says he gave away his inheritance money - though his inheritance came to him well after his success at Bane Capital. Because its true, he did.

But I get annoyed when he tries to then make the leap that he is basically the same as the low income kid who literally had nothing and is trying to make his way to the top.

Romney is one of the few fortunate people in this country to be born into a family with the funds and connections to guarantee him the best schools and the ability to not have to support himself while attending them. Not to mention a family name that probably opened many doors that would never be opened to people without such prestigious backgrounds.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Jonm1010 said:
See, Im ok when Romney says he gave away his inheritance money - though his inheritance came to him well after his success at Bane Capital. Because its true, he did.

But I get annoyed when he tries to then make the leap that he is basically the same as the low income kid who literally had nothing and is trying to make his way to the top.

Romney is one of the few fortunate people in this country to be born into a family with the funds and connections to guarantee him the best schools and the ability to not have to support himself while attending them. Not to mention a family name that probably opened many doors that would never be opened to people without such prestigious backgrounds.
Click to expand...

Twas Ann who said that.

Also, that is an insanely stupid remark. The Dems should pound on that one. Sounds like it can be translated as "I like that there are poor mothers."

Nothing to worry about, right dax/aaron strife/etc?
Click to expand...

Since when do 18-34 year olds matter in an election?
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
AlteredBeast said:
It will be interesting to see if Obama's ground game can get some of that enthusiasm back. That is a pretty steep drop-off, though.
Click to expand...

I just don't see that working, given the horrific unemployment rates among young people - most of whom were crazy about Obama four years ago; how did that work out. Black and Hispanic unemployment rates are quite high as well.

Many people are truly struggling and have no idea the economy is "getting better." It's not surprising why the groups that propelled Obama to victory won't be nearly as enthused for four more years of the same
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
NH Poll: Obama By 9, Romney Seen Unfavorably

A new poll of New Hampshire shows President Obama with a nine point lead in the state, as his overall approval rating and rating on the economy have recovered. Obama gets 51 percent of likely voters in the poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire (UNH) for Manchester, NH television station WMUR, while like GOP nominee and former Romney sees 42 percent support.

Obama’s approval rating is at a positive 50 - 47 split after spending most of 2011 underwater in UNH’s polling, and his approval on the economy stands at 47 percent against 50 percent disapproval, again better than it was in 2011. Romney’s personal favorability is at 36 percent among likely voters in the state, against 51 percent unfavorable.
Click to expand...
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/nh-poll-obama-by-9-romney-seen-unfavorably
 
M

markatisu

Member
Black Republican said:
Pretty significant dropoff
jM65F934WJ1VD.jpg
Click to expand...

Wow context is everything, in April 2008 Hilary and Obama were fighting it out to be the Democratic nominee the first Non-Bush election. A Woman and a Minority compared to Robot Romney, yup same thing

But yeah 2012 is the same thing

Watch that number when we get to September and it will rise

And I know PD is doing his usual schtick but LOL at using black and latino unemployment numbers, especially for Latinos

Fear of Deportation and Immigration Issues >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Economy, especially since if you were Latino you would know the US mistakenly deports legal US Citizens and the last thing they need is US laws that make that easier
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
markatisu said:
Wow context is everything, in April 2008 Hilary and Obama were fighting it out to be the Democratic nominee the first Non-Bush election. A Woman and a Minority compared to Robot Romney, yup same thing

But yeah 2012 is the same thing

Watch that number when we get to September and it will rise

And I know PD is doing his usual schtick but LOL at using black and latino unemployment numbers, especially for Latinos

Fear of Deportation and Immigration Issues >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Economy, especially since if you were Latino you would know the US mistakenly deports legal US Citizens and the last thing they need is US laws that make that easier
Click to expand...

Obama was deporting people at record numbers until he went into campaign mode...
 
D

Dram

Member
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/705396842/Love-would-take-apart-Congressional-Black-Caucus-if-elected-in-Utahs-4th-District.html

Mia Love would 'take apart' Congressional Black Caucus if elected in Utah's 4th District

The conservative first-term mayor formally launched her bid for Congress on Thursday in Mrs. Gorham's third-grade classroom at Saratoga Shores Elementary School.

If elected in November, Love would be the first black Republican woman in Congress and Utah's first black representative. She said she would join the Congressional Black Caucus in Washington, D.C., should she win.

"Yes, yes. I would join the Congressional Black Caucus and try to take that thing apart from the inside out," she said.

Though officially nonpartisan, the caucus has been more closely identified with the Democratic Party.

"It’s demagoguery. They sit there and ignite emotions and ignite racism when there isn’t," Love said. "They use their positions to instill fear. Hope and change is turned into fear and blame. Fear that everybody is going lose everything and blaming Congress for everything instead of taking responsibility."

The caucus isn't the only thing Love said she would dismantle in Washington. The departments of education and energy must go, she said. States, she said, should take back those duties along with health care.

Love, a married mother of three, said she chose a school to kickoff her campaign because she wants to help children achieve their dreams.

"I will not stand by and leave a legacy of debt and dependency," she said. "I am here to tell the children in this community, the children in this state, the children in this country, you will have a voice in Washington."
Click to expand...
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Jonm1010 said:
See, Im ok when Romney says he gave away his inheritance money - though his inheritance came to him well after his success at Bane Capital. Because its true, he did.

But I get annoyed when he tries to then make the leap that he is basically the same as the low income kid who literally had nothing and is trying to make his way to the top.

Romney is one of the few fortunate people in this country to be born into a family with the funds and connections to guarantee him the best schools and the ability to not have to support himself while attending them. Not to mention a family name that probably opened many doors that would never be opened to people without such prestigious backgrounds.
Click to expand...

Mittens needs to realize that no one's saying he should be ashamed that he was born into a wealthy family. But rather, for fuck's sake, at least PRETEND that you understand that not everyone had the same luxury, and thus had a harder opportunity to advance/succeed in life.

And by the way, isn't Obama a millionaire too? When Romney says that Obama hates the successful, does that mean Obama's a self hating richie?
 
R

RoninChaos

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Are we just ignoring 07/08 when Obama skated through the primaries as the media savaged Hillary, and later when Obama received dominating coverage over McCain in the general? Cry me a river
Click to expand...

C'mon son. For the last 20 years all Republicans have talked about is the left wing liberal media, and how it's ruining america and pushing the republicans out. Anybody who has ANY sense would realize what a load of shit that is.

Hell, just the other day you had Newt going at Fox News because he was upset he didn't get ENOUGH coverage. This, from the same guy who helped start "TEH LIBERUL MEDIA" battle cry with Rush Limbaugh back in the 90's.

Anytime you have any news outlet call out people on their shit, if the people getting called out are republicans, the first shit that comes out is that the liberal media is trying to pull a gotcha moment, or whatever the fuck. Sarah Palin and Rush Limbaugh are the PRIME examples of this shit. Got asked a tough question because you said something stupid? It's the liberal media trying to take a swing at you.

That's how it goes down.
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
GhaleonEB said:
DOOM
Click to expand...

There isn't much Romney can do. Obama has been carving out the middle for the past 2-3 years (post-Scott Brown) and the people have noticed. Romney still has little merit among the far right. So, he can't run to the middle and win back those voters and he won't be able to whip up the Southern-Western conservative base to offset it. Then there's the demographic problems the party has with women and Latinos.

At this point, I'd say we are looking at a similar result as 2008 with maybe a little Obama backlash that will make the EV count a little bit closer.
 
E

eznark

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
President Romney's a shoo-in, right PD? He'll probably win pennsylvania because he's so MODERATE.
Click to expand...

I have a terribly short memory, is a 4 point lead (looking at the TPM average) by an incumbent president prior to conventions something to crow about?

For reference, in the latest TPM poll, Walker has a 4 point lead over Barrett and reaches 50%. Do you feel pretty confident that Walker will win?
 
B

Blergmeister

Member
eznark said:
I have a terribly short memory, is a 4 point lead (looking at the TPM average) by an incumbent president prior to conventions something to crow about?

For reference, in the latest TPM poll, Walker has a 4 point lead over Barrett and reaches 50%. Do you feel pretty confident that Walker will win?
Click to expand...

Haha while I'm pretty skeptical of Barret pulling it off, I feel it is worth mentioning that due to it being a non-traditional election that it's a whole different ball game that is much harder to predict.
 
E

eznark

Banned
Blergmeister said:
Haha while I'm pretty skeptical of Barret pulling it off, I feel it is worth mentioning that due to it being a non-traditional election that it's a whole different ball game that is much harder to predict.
Click to expand...

My prediction at this point is that both Obama and Walker increase their margins of victory. (percentage point wise, I think Obama will get fewer electoral votes this time around though).
 
B

Blergmeister

Member
eznark said:
My prediction at this point is that both Obama and Walker increase their margins of victory. (percentage point wise, I think Obama will get fewer electoral votes this time around though).
Click to expand...

I don't know. The number of recall signatures collected was staggering. If that many people show up* to vote against Governor Walker then he is finished. How much does signing the petition correllate with voting though? I'd think it would increase chances. If that is the case is the polling following an incorrect model, one that doesn't factor in the effects of people signing a recall petition on voter liklihood?

If you were to ask me, though, I'd give the edge to Governor Walker as the polling suggests... but if it turns out the other way I wouldn't be very suprised.

* Also, if I was a betting man, I'd say that less people show up to vote against Governor Walker than signed the petition. They were out on every street corner, even in very pro-Walker territory (I'm in Brookfield now). No way that every person who signed one votes... I just hypothesise that it increases the liklihood of a person voting.
 
E

eznark

Banned
Blergmeister said:
I don't know. The number of recall signatures collected was staggering. If that many people show up* to vote against Governor Walker then he is finished. How much does signing the petition correllate with voting though? I'd think it would increase chances. If that is the case is the polling following an incorrect model, one that doesn't factor in the effects of people signing a recall petition on voter liklihood?

If you were to ask me, though, I'd give the edge to Governor Walker as the polling suggests... but if it turns out the other way I wouldn't be very suprised.

* Also, if I was a betting man, I'd say that less people show up to vote against Governor Walker than signed the petition. They were out on every street corner, even in very pro-Walker territory (I'm in Brookfield now). No way that every person who signed one votes... I just hypothesise that it increases the liklihood of a person voting.
Click to expand...

If Prosser had lost I'd give Barrett a chance. He didn't, so I don't see it happening. I think if the election had been two months ago, Walker would probably be in trouble, but at this point there just haven't been any catastrophic effects as a result of Act 10 that people were claiming would happen. It doesn't look like Act 10 will even be a campaign issue one Falk bails.

I kind of hope Walker loses though, so that the GOP can start the Recall Barrett wave. Perpetual recalls. That would be excellent.

I think more people will vote than signed the recall. Barrett got around 1 million votes last time. The recall effort turned in not quite a million and it's probably safe to say 10% of those aren't real. So 900,000 people signed the petition. I would imagine that the recall vote will have close to similar turnout as the 2010 election, so he should get about one million again.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
ToxicAdam said:
There isn't much Romney can do. Obama has been carving out the middle for the past 2-3 years (post-Scott Brown) and the people have noticed. Romney still has little merit among the far right. So, he can't run to the middle and win back those voters and he won't be able to whip up the Southern-Western conservative base to offset it. Then there's the demographic problems the party has with women and Latinos.

At this point, I'd say we are looking at a similar result as 2008 with maybe a little Obama backlash that will make the EV count a little bit closer.
Click to expand...

I agree, though with the added note that Romney's primary cost him a great deal. The race was just long enough that enough people tuned in while he was at his worst and formed opinions based on the last stages of the race, cratering his favorables.

TPM had a good piece today noting how the Hispanic vote isn't really up for grabs - it's already solidified around Obama. I suspect that's going to prove to be the case for the demographics that are key to Obama's reelection.
RoninChaos said:
Why does it seem like every republican wants to dismantle the department of energy and education?
Click to expand...

An uneducated populace, and a country with gutted energy regulations? Sounds like GOP heaven.
 
D

Dr. Pangloss

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I just don't see that working, given the horrific unemployment rates among young people - most of whom were crazy about Obama four years ago; how did that work out. Black and Hispanic unemployment rates are quite high as well.

Many people are truly struggling and have no idea the economy is "getting better." It's not surprising why the groups that propelled Obama to victory won't be nearly as enthused for four more years of the same
Click to expand...

Why do you focus on one metric to tell your story and completely ignore the one that actually matters: growth? Ezra has a calculator this morning that test the likelihood of Obama winning with using the two stats that matter: GDP growth and his approval rating. Even with a low growth rate of 2.0 and an approval rating of 40%, Obama has a 2:1 odds of winning.

Did you know that Bush won in 2004 with a 46% approval rating and 1.4 GDP growth? Take a look at the past winners at the bottom: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2012-election-predictor/

Edit: His father lost with 38% approval rating (People punish those that break pledges: "Read my lips.") and 2.1 GDP growth. He also was going up against Clinton who Romney is definitely not.
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
RoninChaos said:
Why does it seem like every republican wants to dismantle the department of energy and education?
Click to expand...

Some of them actually do, and the rest went full retard a couple of years ago and now say stuff like, !'when I get elected I will go to Washington and dismantle the whole thing so we can live by our wits and our guns.' Even Romney is running to be in charge of the big government on an 'I will destroy the big government' platform.
 
K

Kosmo

Banned
Dr. Pangloss said:
Why do you focus on one metric to tell your story and completely ignore the one that actually matters: growth? Ezra has a calculator this morning that test the likelihood of Obama winning with using the two stats that matter: GDP growth and his approval rating. Even with a low growth rate of 2.0 and an approval rating of 40%, Obama has a 2:1 odds of winning.

Did you know that Bush won in 2004 with a 46% approval rating and 1.4 GDP growth? Take a look at the past winners at the bottom: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2012-election-predictor/
Click to expand...

I suppose because the general electorate localizes politics - they don't care if GDP is growing or if the unemployment rate went from 8.3 to 8.2 percent in the last 6 months - they care if they have a job. In 2004, despite your statistics, unemployment was at 5.5% and heading lower. Nobody is going to sit there and think "Well, I know I don't have a job, but GDP is heading up and that's enough to get me to vote for Obama!"
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Kosmo said:
I suppose because the general electorate localizes politics - they don't care if GDP is growing or if the unemployment rate went from 8.3 to 8.2 percent in the last 6 months - they care if they have a job. In 2004, despite your statistics, unemployment was at 5.5% and heading lower. Nobody is going to sit there and think "Well, I know I don't have a job, but GDP is heading up and that's enough to get me to vote for Obama!"
Click to expand...

It's well established that the level of unemployment is much less predictive of election outcomes as the direction it's moving in, and the speed it's doing so. I would rather they use average monthly job gains, but there's a fairly tight relationship between GDP growth and employment gains/losses.

2% GDP and 46% approval for Obama yields a an 83.1% likelihood he is reelected on the calculator, which feels about right.
 
D

Dr. Pangloss

Member
Kosmo said:
I suppose because the general electorate localizes politics - they don't care if GDP is growing or if the unemployment rate went from 8.3 to 8.2 percent in the last 6 months - they care if they have a job. In 2004, despite your statistics, unemployment was at 5.5% and heading lower. Nobody is going to sit there and think "Well, I know I don't have a job, but GDP is heading up and that's enough to get me to vote for Obama!"
Click to expand...

And where is unemployment going now? Here is google where you can look at individual states, especially the ones that are toss ups: http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=z1ebjpgk2654c1_&met_y=unemployment_rate&idim=country:US&fdim_y=seasonality:S&dl=en&hl=en&q=unemployment+rate#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=unemployment_rate&fdim_y=seasonality:S&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=state:ST080000:ST190000:ST550000:ST510000:ST420000:ST330000:ST390000&ifdim=country&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false
Show me a map where Romney wins the election while losing both Virginia and Ohio.

Edit: Ghal already mention this, but the statisticians already ran the numbers and found that growth in GDP has a greater correlation to winners and losers of presidential elections than unemployment rate itself. Also, when one goes down the other typically follows.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
Dr. Pangloss said:
Why do you focus on one metric to tell your story and completely ignore the one that actually matters: growth? Ezra has a calculator this morning that test the likelihood of Obama winning with using the two stats that matter: GDP growth and his approval rating. Even with a low growth rate of 2.0 and an approval rating of 40%, Obama has a 2:1 odds of winning.

Did you know that Bush won in 2004 with a 46% approval rating and 1.4 GDP growth? Take a look at the past winners at the bottom: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2012-election-predictor/

Edit: His father lost with 38% approval rating (People punish those that break pledges: "Read my lips.") and 2.1 GDP growth. He also was going up against Clinton who Romney is definitely not.
Click to expand...
If you're not careful, Pangloss, PD will add you to the Dax/Aaron Strife Overly-Optimistic-of-Obama's-Chances Group.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Dr. Pangloss said:
And where is unemployment going now? Here is google where you can look at individual states, especially the ones that are toss ups: http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=z1ebjpgk2654c1_&met_y=unemployment_rate&idim=country:US&fdim_y=seasonality:S&dl=en&hl=en&q=unemployment+rate#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=unemployment_rate&fdim_y=seasonality:S&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=state:ST080000:ST190000:ST550000:ST510000:ST420000:ST330000:ST390000&ifdim=country&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false
Show me a map where Romney wins the election while losing both Virginia and Ohio.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the link, I'll keep that handy.

I like this graph from Calculated Risk because it ranks the states by unemployment rate, and also shows how much improvement each state is seeing.

StateUnemployMar2012.jpg


Look at Michigan.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Thanks for the link, I'll keep that handy.

I like this graph from Calculated Risk because it ranks the states by unemployment rate, and also shows how much improvement each state is seeing.

StateUnemployMar2012.jpg


Look at Michigan.
Click to expand...

lol and some people still pretend that Michigan is a swing state.

GhaleonEB said:
An uneducated populace, and a country with gutted energy regulations? Sounds like GOP heaven.
Click to expand...

A lot of people in West Virginia think the EPA should no longer exist because they're actually doing their job here.
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Doesn't Romney have a cousin that was born in Michigan? That surely means he's the favorite there.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
eznark said:
I have a terribly short memory, is a 4 point lead (looking at the TPM average) by an incumbent president prior to conventions something to crow about?

For reference, in the latest TPM poll, Walker has a 4 point lead over Barrett and reaches 50%. Do you feel pretty confident that Walker will win?
Click to expand...
A four point lead for Obama by all measures would still give him a EV landslide over Romney (here classified as over 300 EVs).

Walker will still lose btw. I won't bet on it though simply because I don't want to become a desperate shill like PD.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
I'm starting to think Walker might not lose (but that it doesn't actually matter because the State Senate's going to swing back to the Dems anyway)

e: Also with the formula Klein (and by extension Dr. Pangloss) posted, Obama wins 77% of the time with GDP growth of +1% and an average approval rating of 49% (where he currently sits without Rasmussen included). Any further improvement on either front and we're probably starting to look at Clinton 1996-type numbers.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
A four point lead for Obama by all measures would still give him a EV landslide over Romney (here classified as over 300 EVs).

Walker will still lose btw. I won't bet on it though simply because I don't want to become a desperate shill like PD.
Click to expand...

Ha

Walker looks pretty solid in the polling I've seen, and despite liberal's best intentions to smear Wisconsin's economic state, they still have one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country.
 
E

eznark

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
A four point lead for Obama by all measures would still give him a EV landslide over Romney (here classified as over 300 EVs).

Walker will still lose btw. I won't bet on it though simply because I don't want to become a desperate shill like PD.
Click to expand...

Just like he did in 2010. And just like Prosser. Your skills at prognostication are far too heavily influenced by your emotions.

He might lose, but your track record on Wisconsin elections is dismal.

I'm starting to think Walker might not lose (but that it doesn't actually matter because the State Senate's going to swing back to the Dems anyway)
Click to expand...

For real purposes, the elections is meaningless unless Falk wins. Walker doesn't have much left to accomplish (though it would obviously end his political career for awhile) and Barrett doesn't have the backbone to freeze state government over Act 10.

As long as Falk loses, nothing Walker has done will be undone.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
PhoenixDark said:
and despite liberal's best intentions to smear Wisconsin's economic state
Click to expand...

You mean like how they were the only state to lose jobs in 2011? That's... not exactly a smear.

eznark said:
For real purposes, the elections is meaningless unless Falk wins. Walker doesn't have much left to accomplish (though it would obviously end his political career for awhile) and Barrett doesn't have the backbone to freeze state government over Act 10.

As long as Falk loses, nothing Walker has done will be undone.
Click to expand...

I basically agree with you completely, at least regarding the gubernatorial recall.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher
338 339 340 341 342
17K
2M
UselessNapkin replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
395 396 397 398 399
20K
2M
RDreamer replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
396 397 398 399 400
20K
2M
ShironRedshift replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
393 394 395 396 397
20K
2M
Zaraki_Kenpachi replied
  • Locked
Poligaf 2017 |OT| It Almost Isn't Fair
9
3K
Bonen no Max'd replied
Top Bottom