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360/PS3/WII: Wii Takeover watch
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
titiklabingapat
Member
Thwres a very good chance that at end March 08, the Wii will have not just a plurality but a majority share of the WW market. Perhaps, even leading in all major regions, NA included.
I didn't mean that. I said EA, Ubi, Activison and others don't matter to Japan. (or Japan don't matter to them)donny2112 said:
English is not my native language, so i may have misspelled something.
So, by early next year, maybe? I guess this takeover and PS3+X360 WW will be close...donny2112 said:
lochnesssnowman
Member
The totals for Wii / PS3 in Canada appear to be a little off...
Monthly sales since launch...
Nov + Dec - Wii: 84,000, PS3: 45,000, Link
Jan - Wii: 34,000, PS3: 6,800, Link
Feb - Wii: 28,556, PS3: 6,084, Link
Mar - Wii: ???, PS3: ???, No Link
Apr - Wii: 42,100, PS3: 7,200, Link
May - Wii: 37,300, PS3: 6,500, Link
Jun - Wii: 53,000, PS3: 6,500, Link
Jul - Wii: 36,419, PS3: 15,037, Link
Totals (Minus March) - Wii: 315,375, PS3: 93,121
Even minus March, the totals in the OP through July are too low. For March, Fuzzy has Wii at 26,500 (Link) (which follows a drop from Feb -> March in U.S.) so we'll go with that. Looking at PS3 in U.S. for Feb -> March, it was pretty flat (slight rise) so we'll assume the same for Canada and go for 6,100 (the margin for error here is probably 1,000 tops). I'd say both these numbers are close enough.
New totals (w/ March) - Wii: 341,875, PS3: 99,221
You can find 360 numbers (minus Nov / Dec 2005 and March 2007) at all those links as well.
Monthly sales since launch...
Nov + Dec - Wii: 84,000, PS3: 45,000, Link
Jan - Wii: 34,000, PS3: 6,800, Link
Feb - Wii: 28,556, PS3: 6,084, Link
Mar - Wii: ???, PS3: ???, No Link
Apr - Wii: 42,100, PS3: 7,200, Link
May - Wii: 37,300, PS3: 6,500, Link
Jun - Wii: 53,000, PS3: 6,500, Link
Jul - Wii: 36,419, PS3: 15,037, Link
Totals (Minus March) - Wii: 315,375, PS3: 93,121
Even minus March, the totals in the OP through July are too low. For March, Fuzzy has Wii at 26,500 (Link) (which follows a drop from Feb -> March in U.S.) so we'll go with that. Looking at PS3 in U.S. for Feb -> March, it was pretty flat (slight rise) so we'll assume the same for Canada and go for 6,100 (the margin for error here is probably 1,000 tops). I'd say both these numbers are close enough.
New totals (w/ March) - Wii: 341,875, PS3: 99,221
You can find 360 numbers (minus Nov / Dec 2005 and March 2007) at all those links as well.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
That seems... out of reach. That gives 6 months of further X360 and PS3 sales worldwide, including a holiday. Estimating low let's say X360 can do 4 million in that time, and PS3 2 million. In that case, Nintendo has to increase their March forecast by 3 or more million to even approach shipping enough to match.titiklabingapat said:
titiklabingapat
Member
I expect them to raise thier Wii shipping forecast by 6 million before the FY is over; 3.5M in the next quarterly report just in time for holidays 08 and another 2.5M during the third quarterly report.JoshuaJSlone said:
Slurpy said:+1 Wii. Picked one up today. Just opened the box, and I got more excited than I probably should have when I saw the new locking wriststraps
Metroid 3 will be my first Wii game purchase.
May I suggest RE4? I know its a retread, but goddamn its awesome.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
I think you're thinking about one of their goals they had for this year. Through June they'd shipped 11.6 million, which I believe slightly missed their targets. I have no idea what their further targets are, though.laserbeam said:
Heh, well, that would do it, maybe.titiklabingapat said:
Guy Legend
Member
Linkhero1 said:
Third it.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
OOPS. I need to correct myself something fierce. When thinking about the possible total Wii could be at by March, I was thinking of Nintendo's forecast for the year (16.5 million at last revision), but I neglected the nearly 6 million shipped before this March, which gives titiklabingapat's statement
much more chance of happening than I said.titiklabingapat said:
titiklabingapat
Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
Even if they fail to do it, 24M by March is just insane. Just insane. I wonder how this compares to the PS2 in the same time frame(with two holiday seasons included) *hint*
JoshuaJSlone
Member
March 31, 2008 will be 498 days from initial Wii launch. The closest to that I see for PS2 (and as usual this is the old shipped-to-warehouse method) is 483 days, by which time the worldwide number was 14.95 million.titiklabingapat said:
However, that just takes PS2 to June 30, 2001, so only one holiday season is included. As of December 31, 2001 (667 days from initial launch) they'd shipped 24.99 million. By January 31, 2002 (698 days from launch) they'd shipped 26.33 million.
SouthernDragon
Member
Pick up RE4, it's only 30 bucks and just experience the new controls should be worth it, along with the added content.
Or rent it.
Or rent it.
Jon_Danger
Member
Wow, the PS3 isnt doing so bad.
mariosbrother
Member
Jon_Danger said:
Cerebus. Awesome.
Version 3.0
Member
Fuzzy said:It's slightly ahead of the Xbox 360 WW if you line up the launches. Just saying.
That's the advantage of launching early. If they sell equally, the 360 will always be ~8-9 million ahead.
I was thinking today when I was playing my various VC games...
When are we going to see some games from third-party developers that make you want to go out an purchase a Wii not on the strength of Nintendo software but on the strength of third-party.
Is it really possible that the Wii can survive with little or no third-party AAA titles? I mean I love Nintendo franchises and software. But I also want to see Capcom...Konami...SE or any other third-party take the Wii as seriously as they do PS3/360...and from everything I've witness pre-Wii launch to the present...I haven't seen a serious shift in the way these companies go about developing games...
Dewy looks nice and I will most probably pick it up...so too Zack and Wiki...and SE...I think seem too scared to fully jump in and in my opinion just have their feet in the water to test it...and this seems to be the case with everyone else too...
Even though the Wii is clocking up sales in a phenomenal way...the announcements for the Wii to say the least are hardly enthusing me as a Wii owner. I mean I was asked just the other week by a friend what Wii game I'd recommend from a third-party developer and tbh the only thing I could think of was RE:4...which just made him laugh at me...but honest to god...that's about the only game I've bought for the Wii...since say February. I just buy VC games nowadays.
I don't buy developers have been caught with their pants down...in fact the amount of small time developers announcing Wii games to me seems very impressive and they definately seem to want to ride on the Wii-wagon..it's the big developers that seem to have a wish to leave money on the table with the Wii...or are they still hinging on the hope the Wii is a fad?
Maybe it's the Wii hardware....they don't want to work with old-tech? Maybe they've invest too much in the new generation of tools...for 360/PS3 development that...they can't possibly go back to old dev tools? And if they do it's just to off-set their 360/PS3 in development games?
Just seems strange to me...
When are we going to see some games from third-party developers that make you want to go out an purchase a Wii not on the strength of Nintendo software but on the strength of third-party.
Is it really possible that the Wii can survive with little or no third-party AAA titles? I mean I love Nintendo franchises and software. But I also want to see Capcom...Konami...SE or any other third-party take the Wii as seriously as they do PS3/360...and from everything I've witness pre-Wii launch to the present...I haven't seen a serious shift in the way these companies go about developing games...
Dewy looks nice and I will most probably pick it up...so too Zack and Wiki...and SE...I think seem too scared to fully jump in and in my opinion just have their feet in the water to test it...and this seems to be the case with everyone else too...
Even though the Wii is clocking up sales in a phenomenal way...the announcements for the Wii to say the least are hardly enthusing me as a Wii owner. I mean I was asked just the other week by a friend what Wii game I'd recommend from a third-party developer and tbh the only thing I could think of was RE:4...which just made him laugh at me...but honest to god...that's about the only game I've bought for the Wii...since say February. I just buy VC games nowadays.
I don't buy developers have been caught with their pants down...in fact the amount of small time developers announcing Wii games to me seems very impressive and they definately seem to want to ride on the Wii-wagon..it's the big developers that seem to have a wish to leave money on the table with the Wii...or are they still hinging on the hope the Wii is a fad?
Maybe it's the Wii hardware....they don't want to work with old-tech? Maybe they've invest too much in the new generation of tools...for 360/PS3 development that...they can't possibly go back to old dev tools? And if they do it's just to off-set their 360/PS3 in development games?
Just seems strange to me...
You won't notice the shift.
Like with the DS, there will be more and more games announced, sometimes big ones, and it won't always happen during game shows ...
But one day, you'll take 1 or 2 minutes to think about the situation and you'll notice how the Wii took the lion's share from third parties support.
Like with the DS, there will be more and more games announced, sometimes big ones, and it won't always happen during game shows ...
But one day, you'll take 1 or 2 minutes to think about the situation and you'll notice how the Wii took the lion's share from third parties support.
Kafel said:
Oh I don't doubt Nintendo will have more 3rd parties...what I do doubt is the amount of effort being put in...
It seems to me developers are not bothered and in some ways wish the Wii didn't exist as it probably has messed up their plans for the next 2-3 years if not beyond. So they announce stuff but don't particularly put as much effort, thought and time into Wii projects.
Saint Gregory
Member
I think you guys are putting way too much importance in third party games. I understand how critical those games were to Sony's success but before that Nintendo, Sega and virtually everyone in the VG business sold consoles on the strength of their first party games.
The way you guys are talking you make it seem like a Wii sold to play Wii Sports is less important than a Wii sold to play RE4. In the end it's still a console sale and if the Wii ends up with a huge userbase this gen and developers decide to pass to it then that's their loss. Notice how significantly Sony has beefed up their first party studios? Even before this gen started to shake out against them they planned on being a much larger presence on the PS3 than they had been on their earlier consoles.
The way you guys are talking you make it seem like a Wii sold to play Wii Sports is less important than a Wii sold to play RE4. In the end it's still a console sale and if the Wii ends up with a huge userbase this gen and developers decide to pass to it then that's their loss. Notice how significantly Sony has beefed up their first party studios? Even before this gen started to shake out against them they planned on being a much larger presence on the PS3 than they had been on their earlier consoles.
Hcoregamer00
The 'H' stands for hentai.
Kafel said:
Pretty much, like the DS.
There wont be any huge signs that say "HEY LOOK THE WII IS GETTING ALL OF OUR GAMES."
It will be subtle and most people wont notice until it is too late.
Great Rumbler
Member
Saint Gregory said:
That kind of thinking ignores the more recent consoles like N64, Dreamcast, and GC. All of which had lackluster, at best, third-party support and were basically carried on the back of their respective first/second parties.
Now you could argue that part of the success of the PS1/PS2 was due to being the media/casual darling and, in the case of PS2 the direct successor to one of the most popular consoles ever. However, that status was aided, at least in part, by a wide array of third party titles that appealed to diverse demographics.
So, there's evidence for both sides. But, in order for the Wii to have the staying power to propel it forward it's going to need to keep some third parties in its corner.
Hcoregamer00
The 'H' stands for hentai.
Great Rumbler said:
The Wii dominance in Japan all but guarantees a strong lineup of 3rd party games that will be announced eventually.
I could imagine smaller studios being the first ones to shift development, with the larger ones keeping the status quo for a while. When I mean status quo I mean keep development on the PS3 and XBOX 360 so that they could finish the projects they started development on.
After all, it would be a waste to let a $30 million dollar game get canceled.
Saint Gregory
Member
Great Rumbler said:
The GC, Dreamcast and N64 had problems that had nothing at all to do with gaming but I'll agree with you that there's no denying how important 3rd parties have been over the last decade. They'll still be important but I don't think that they'll be the central force driving Wii sales this gen yet people think that's disastrous. I've read over and over that people will get tired of the Wii and move on to something else but if they all buy one to begin with then that's going to make the Wii the market leader by a large margin. Are we to believe that Nintendo and all the other developers are going to be content letting those Wiis sit idle?
Great Rumbler
Member
Saint Gregory said:
I don't agree with the people who say that without heavy third party support the Wii will eventually stop selling. Casual mindshare, first/second party support, and a handful of third party titles could probably keep the Wii at a nice pace. However, if it's ever going to have a chance to sell at PS1/PS2 levels, it's going to need a steady stream of big third party titles to fill in the gaps.
titiklabingapat
Member
It just takes one or two new developer to step up to the plate and exploit the userbase with thier games that people actually want. Level 5 did it with the DS and now they are announcing titles for it left and right.F#A#Oo said:
The companies to watch out for on the Wii are Marvelous, Atlus, Level 5. On the more traditional side, Capcom and SE. It seems that they actually do like money and don't get the feeling that they sideline the Wii at all.
Well, Capcom did kind of made fun of the Wii in the early days but they seem to like being a big fish in a small pond. In the Wii's case it's not necessarily the userbase. The small pond is the relatively small numbers of third party developers on the system right now.
Great Rumbler said:
That was before Nintendo discovered waggle and non-games.
Saint Gregory
Member
titiklabingapat said:
Capcom should have a huge advantage over other 3rd party devs on the Wii as they're one of the few to have supported the gamecube with exclusive games. Based on what they were able to do with RE4 they should know the gamecube hardware inside and out and be able to apply that knowledge to the Wii.
The fact that they didn't hit the ground running with games that blow the other 3rd parties out of the water seems like a missed opportunity but Zach and Wiki will hopefully do well enough to make up for that. The market for lightgun games seems like it's pretty limited to me so I don't have high hopes for UC, but they have made a good chunk of change with the RE4 port so let's see if they reinvest that back into the system.
I realize these arguments will probably never go away and that it'll take something like FF13 cancelled on the PS3 and moved to Wii to shut most people up (of course, they'll then start complaining about other things). The same half dozen games have kept getting named for the last 2 years and will continue to be so until their all released (some will probably be named for 2 more years).
If you look at the recent announcement (pretty much this entire year) the majority of the smaller-resource games have been for Wii and developers are finding ways to make their yearly multiplatfrom games for every platform. The Wii has only been lacking in the 3rd party big blockbuster titles.... the games that take 2-4 years to make. It's completely natural for these smaller games to be announced sooner because they're closer to completetion, while larger games would only be about 20% complete at this point. These smaller developers are able to adjust quicker to market changes.
Personally, I think these smaller games are more important to a console than the big blockbuster games. It was these smaller games that defined the first two Playstations. The N64 had the biggest blockbusters of its generation, it even had a decent selection of multiplatform games, but the PS1 killed it in variety, the number of titles and support. The PS2 was similar in that while the Xbox and Gamecube skewed sharply in opposites directions, the PS2 offerred a more of everything to everyone.
They also make the library look more active and that the system has more potential. The N64 quickly got a reputation of having nothing new being released. It wasn't really true, but when compared to the PS1 it might as well have been. The PS3 is gaining a similar image, even though the 360's line-up is only about 2/3 that of the Xbox's at the same point in their lifetime. Both consoles could use more of these small budget titles to pad their schedules.
Most of game announced for the Wii this year I have little to no interest in playing. The same was true in past generations. But I think most people like having a system that gives them those optionals.
It's late and I'm tired, so I'm just going to post this as is... the stuff below was written first, but I doubt anyone made it this far.
I've always been amused by how often Capcom gets brought when mentioning strong 360 support, weak Wii support, and the worldwide marketplace. It's kinda similar to the Gamecube and PS2. The Capcom 5 got most of the attention, but the bulk of there games and sales were still on the PS2. Capcom's great 360 support has been 1 game last year, 2 games this year and another game sometime before 2010. In the meantime, their Wii games don't get the same attention, but according to Capcom they expect them to sell more this year worldwide(and that was before RE4 smashed their expectations).
If you look at the recent announcement (pretty much this entire year) the majority of the smaller-resource games have been for Wii and developers are finding ways to make their yearly multiplatfrom games for every platform. The Wii has only been lacking in the 3rd party big blockbuster titles.... the games that take 2-4 years to make. It's completely natural for these smaller games to be announced sooner because they're closer to completetion, while larger games would only be about 20% complete at this point. These smaller developers are able to adjust quicker to market changes.
Personally, I think these smaller games are more important to a console than the big blockbuster games. It was these smaller games that defined the first two Playstations. The N64 had the biggest blockbusters of its generation, it even had a decent selection of multiplatform games, but the PS1 killed it in variety, the number of titles and support. The PS2 was similar in that while the Xbox and Gamecube skewed sharply in opposites directions, the PS2 offerred a more of everything to everyone.
They also make the library look more active and that the system has more potential. The N64 quickly got a reputation of having nothing new being released. It wasn't really true, but when compared to the PS1 it might as well have been. The PS3 is gaining a similar image, even though the 360's line-up is only about 2/3 that of the Xbox's at the same point in their lifetime. Both consoles could use more of these small budget titles to pad their schedules.
Most of game announced for the Wii this year I have little to no interest in playing. The same was true in past generations. But I think most people like having a system that gives them those optionals.
It's late and I'm tired, so I'm just going to post this as is... the stuff below was written first, but I doubt anyone made it this far.
I've always been amused by how often Capcom gets brought when mentioning strong 360 support, weak Wii support, and the worldwide marketplace. It's kinda similar to the Gamecube and PS2. The Capcom 5 got most of the attention, but the bulk of there games and sales were still on the PS2. Capcom's great 360 support has been 1 game last year, 2 games this year and another game sometime before 2010. In the meantime, their Wii games don't get the same attention, but according to Capcom they expect them to sell more this year worldwide(and that was before RE4 smashed their expectations).