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Wii have taken over! From a reliable source..
- Thread starter koam
- Start date
Falafelkid
Banned
Well, there are reliable figures for Germany, straight from my blog:schuelma said:
The German financial newspaper uro am Sonntag cites industry insiders who in turn cite the following lifetime sales figures for Germany from the ´Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung (GfK)´:
Wii: 291.000
Xbox360: 281.000
PS3: 99.500
Monthly sales in July paint a clear picture of the current trend:
Wii: 26.000
Xbox360: 5.000
PS3: 8.000
At the Games Convention, I confronted SCED´s head of PR, Uwe Bassendowski, with the above figures. He gave me the GfK´s weekly figures (13th - 19th of August):
Wii: 8.000
Xbox360: 1.300
PS3: 5.500
PS2: 7.500
He insisted on adding the PS2 numbers, saying that in overall hardware sales Sony was the clear market leader and sold the most consoles right now.
Thunder Monkey said:
Then why should Microsoft be worried then? The Wii and 360 are so different from each other that people will most likely buy both. Although Wii will have the bigger market share though. Every other generation all of the machines have been similar, there was really no reason for the average joe to buy two. If people want waggle and high end graphics, they will most likely buy a Wii then either a 360 or a PS3 when the price goes down. I wouldn't be surprised to see that this generation of consoles has the most multi-console owners when its all said and done. There is room for both the Wii and 360/PS3, Microsoft shouldn't be worried. Although Sony might because they are losing the battle for the high end machine, and most will buy just one of those for now.
Mariah Carey
Member
That is curious. Both Wii and especially PS3 look to have big gains this month.apujanata said:
Falafelkid
Banned
I would guess so. I am not surprised that the PS3 looks best in those weekly figures. I got those numbers from Sony, after all.apujanata said:
EDIT Oops, sorry: Germany hasn´t even had a reduction yet (or hardware upgrade, as i prefer to call it). Must be a statistical blip... or the fact that Ninja Gaiden Sigma came out some weeks ago. Who knows.
psycho_snake
I went to WAGs boutique and all I got was a sniff
Looks like it. You would expect to see an increase in sales after a price drop.apujanata said:
Falafelkid
Banned
Yup, you are both quite right. We have had the starter pack. But disregarding the bundled games and extra controller the 60GB model is still 599 Euro. And there is no 20GB model.C.T. said:
So why not add DS numbers if he were to include PS2?
From this thread I see these German numbers:
If these numbers are anything to go buy for July (which sold 24k Wii's from the numbers posted above), then Nintendo sold ~ 106.000 systems in Germany alone in the month of July.
With seemlingy higher PS3 august numbers than usual (the starter pack), PS2 and PS3 combined for a 4 week month would have sales of about 52.000 in august if those sales hold true for the entire month. If Wii and DS numbers arn't less than in july (in fact, Wii weekly numbers seem to be higher) I don't see how Sony with their PlayStation brand is the clear market leader? Unless the PSP sells more than PS2 and PS3 combined but I somehow doubt that.. Ah, I looked back at Falafelkid's post and it says "saying that in overall hardware sales Sony was the clear market leader and sold the most consoles right now." So his claim is right after all. Combining the mighty PS2 with PS3 against Wii alone in order to come out on top (gotta win somehow right hehe)
As a hardware publisher though, Nintendo sure is sitting from a very comfortable position right now. Besides stunning DS sales, Wii is also doing great in Germany it seems. Already surpassing X360 and flying past it like it's nothing.Falafelkid
Banned
Neomoto said:So why not add DS numbers if he were to include PS2?
From this thread I see these German numbers:
If these numbers are anything to go buy for July (which sold 24k Wii's from the numbers posted above), then Nintendo sold ~ 106.000 systems in Germany alone in the month of July.
With seemlingy higher PS3 august numbers than usual (the starter pack), PS2 and PS3 combined for a 4 week month would have sales of about 52.000 in august if those sales hold true for the entire month. If Wii and DS numbers arn't less than in july (in fact, Wii weekly numbers seem to be higher) I don't see how Sony with their PlayStation brand is the clear market leader? Unless the PSP sells more than PS2 and PS3 combined but I somehow doubt that.. Ah, I looked back at Falafelkid's post and it says "saying that in overall hardware sales Sony was the clear market leader and sold the most consoles right now." So his claim is right after all. Combining the mighty PS2 with PS3 against Wii alone in order to come out on top (gotta win somehow right hehe)
Very well reasoned. In fact, I told Uwe Bassendowski the same: If hardware sales should include older hardware, then why not include mobile platforms as well? If you put home consoles and portables together, I believe, then Nintendo has always been market leader.
Link said:
12 years ago, gaming wasn't so intertwined. You didn't see PC developers putting their games on consoles because well.. they couldn't. Now with improvements in the development process, ports are common place. My fear is that game developers will stop making great games (i.e not dumbed down for the mainstream) because the money hats are too much to deny.
ZombieSupaStar
Member
id like to see the 360 (hardware issues aside) do well, and I guess the Wii also.
I dunno as Im getting older (26 this year) I seem to notice disliking change more and more, I was pretty comfy with my traditional controls for 20+ years of gaming, When my Wii gets here I guess Ill see how I react to moving arms instead of just thumbs.
I dunno as Im getting older (26 this year) I seem to notice disliking change more and more, I was pretty comfy with my traditional controls for 20+ years of gaming, When my Wii gets here I guess Ill see how I react to moving arms instead of just thumbs.
Skiptastic
Member
So Wii hardware has taken over the lead. How long (if ever) until Wii software overtake 360 software?
JoshuaJSlone
Member
On a day-by-day basis, or LTD?Skiptastic said:
Skiptastic
Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
Either. Also depends on whether you consider Wii Sports as part of the software calculation. I wouldn't in the States, but would in Japan.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
I like to play with tie ratios when available, but since they so rarely are I usually stick to hardware. So, no estimates on when things will happen from me.
However, I think it's worth reminding once in a while why direct tie ratio comparisons between the systems leave something to be desired.
Wii's userbase has grown much more quickly, and shape effects things. Here we have three systems, each having reached the same userbase, but having done so by launching at different times and selling at different rates. Even if each of the systems had a completely like userbase, and they were each buying 1 software per month, at the point where they'd reached 12 hardware LTD apiece things would look like
System A
LTD: 78
Tie ratio: 6.5
System B
LTD: 42
Tie ratio: 3.5
System C
LTD: 30
Tie ratio: 2.5
A simple software sold or tie ratio comparison wouldn't take into account the varying launch times or rates, but they do matter. The area under their lines can be seen as a measurement of how many total system-months each different hardware has gained. System A, having been out much longer than System B or System C, has a clear current advantage since each of its systems has on average been in consumer homes much longer than the others.
In this way I believe a direct comparison of X360 at 21 months versus Wii at 9 months tends to puff up the appearance of the average X360 owner's game purchases.
Sometimes, however, I have seen direct comparisons of X360's first few months with Wii's first few months, but again there's a factor that puffs up X360's appearance: Wii has many more owners. I've seen it said that X360's tie ratio after several months was higher than pretty much any other system, including Wii. This is true. However, it's difficult to say how much this means that early X360 owners comprised of more heavy buyers.
After 4 months in the US, X360 was at 1.0 million, while Wii was at 1.85 million. For all we know, there were a million Wii owners who bought just as many games as those first million X360 owners, but the additional .85 million brought the average down. I can't say this is the case, but the data is so limited that we can't make a conclusion either way. Perhaps at this time next year, Wii will have 10 million purchasers who buy as many average games as X360's current 10 million, but the additional 15 million lighter owners will bring the average down.
To sum up, I think X360's software-selling advantage is overblown. If the average X360 owner is still now purchasing more games than the average Wii owner, it's not by such a large amount that a few more months of Wii>X360 sales won't cancel it out. However, Wii games have been quite present in top 10/30 lists from the various major regions already.
However, I think it's worth reminding once in a while why direct tie ratio comparisons between the systems leave something to be desired.
Wii's userbase has grown much more quickly, and shape effects things. Here we have three systems, each having reached the same userbase, but having done so by launching at different times and selling at different rates. Even if each of the systems had a completely like userbase, and they were each buying 1 software per month, at the point where they'd reached 12 hardware LTD apiece things would look like
System A
LTD: 78
Tie ratio: 6.5
System B
LTD: 42
Tie ratio: 3.5
System C
LTD: 30
Tie ratio: 2.5
A simple software sold or tie ratio comparison wouldn't take into account the varying launch times or rates, but they do matter. The area under their lines can be seen as a measurement of how many total system-months each different hardware has gained. System A, having been out much longer than System B or System C, has a clear current advantage since each of its systems has on average been in consumer homes much longer than the others.
In this way I believe a direct comparison of X360 at 21 months versus Wii at 9 months tends to puff up the appearance of the average X360 owner's game purchases.
Sometimes, however, I have seen direct comparisons of X360's first few months with Wii's first few months, but again there's a factor that puffs up X360's appearance: Wii has many more owners. I've seen it said that X360's tie ratio after several months was higher than pretty much any other system, including Wii. This is true. However, it's difficult to say how much this means that early X360 owners comprised of more heavy buyers.
After 4 months in the US, X360 was at 1.0 million, while Wii was at 1.85 million. For all we know, there were a million Wii owners who bought just as many games as those first million X360 owners, but the additional .85 million brought the average down. I can't say this is the case, but the data is so limited that we can't make a conclusion either way. Perhaps at this time next year, Wii will have 10 million purchasers who buy as many average games as X360's current 10 million, but the additional 15 million lighter owners will bring the average down.
To sum up, I think X360's software-selling advantage is overblown. If the average X360 owner is still now purchasing more games than the average Wii owner, it's not by such a large amount that a few more months of Wii>X360 sales won't cancel it out. However, Wii games have been quite present in top 10/30 lists from the various major regions already.
I was looking at July's NPD and concedering the tie ratios for the Wii and 360. I noticed that the Wii's growth rate was about 4.5 times that of the 360. So for the Wii to maintain it's ~3.5 tie ratio with 425k new console sold last month it would have to have sold about 1,450,000 games... while in order for the 360 to maintain its 6.1 ratio, it would only have to sell about 1,050,000 games.JoshuaJSlone said:
In other words, Wii software could be outselling 360 software by wide margins but that would never be reflected by comparing tie ratios
Great analysis as always JoshuaJSlone.
I would like to talk about this point in particular:
And i think the next milestone we should watch is Wii Western takeover, because for most western developers that what they really care... Any guestimate on how long will it take?
I would like to talk about this point in particular:
While is not really fair, it is be the best comparison, because all that matter to developers are after the launch, not before (why would the developer care if X360 was selling first if Wii is selling way more?) and since Wii will always have more buyers from now on it will always have this advantage anyway.JoshuaJSlone said:
And i think the next milestone we should watch is Wii Western takeover, because for most western developers that what they really care... Any guestimate on how long will it take?
mentalfloss
Banned
JJConrad said:
So, basically, the fact that 360 owners may parade the 360's software selection over Wii's is a bit of spin?
Maybe not intentional spin, but yes. I would wager that the vast majority of people who use tie ratio has an arugument don't understand the signicance of those numbers. Tie ratios are useful when systems are about the same age and are growing at about the same rate, but neither of those factors apply this generation.mentalfloss said:
The tie ratio naturally favors the console with the slower growth... be that via a smaller userbase or a more mature audience ("mature" reffering to the length of time that each owner has owned their system). Tie ratios don't reflect current sales at all, they are based on the total sum of all sales past and present sales and the more time the passes the easier it is to maintain that rate.... in fact, as hardware sales slow down, tie ratios begin to leap (particularly in the months after Christmas and at the end of generations).
Version 3.0
Member
felipeko said:
Impossible to say. It all depends on Wii supply during the holidays. There are other factors that are constantly mentioned--like Halo 3--but the 360 has been remarkable immune to software affecting its hardware sales (in either direction). It's been slipping, but the small price drop should put it back on track. I'd predict it doing this year about the same as last year.
Worst case scenario for Nintendo is that current sales are 100% of their supply--nothing held back for the holidays. Let's use this month's weekly avg extended indefinitely. And let's use the 360's 2006 Aug-Dec, then use that completed 2007 onward into the next two years.
At that rate--which I'd say is weighted heavily in the 360's favor--it'd take the Wii until March 2009 to overtake the 360 permanently--it passes then loses ground during next year's holidays.
If we give the Wii some more supply for Nov/Dec, and just assume it'll tie the 360 those two months, then it overtakes the 360 in July 2008.
I think the Wii will beat both those scenarios and overtake the 360 in the US in the first half of next year, maybe even the first quarter.
In graph form:
Scenario 1:
Scenario 2:
