Frankly, I don't see how the CPC hasn't followed the McCain Model i.e. "I don't agree with ___'s position but i'm still going to vote along party lines" for some time now outside of a few exceptions i.e. Chong stepping down from Harper's cabinet. The question now is whether Scheer can keep the social conservative portion of the party in check or if they'll dominate the image of the post-Harper CPC. Given how the surprising amount of support there was for Trost and how much support of Trost went to Scheer, i'm skeptical of whether he'll keep them as quiet as Harper did, especially with Scheer previously espousing the garbage that he has about "traditional marriage".
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Canadian PoliGAF - 42nd Parliament: Sunny Ways in Trudeaupia
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
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Frankly, I don't see how the CPC hasn't followed the McCain Model i.e. "I don't agree with ___'s position but i'm still going to vote along party lines" for some time now outside of a few exceptions i.e. Chong stepping down from Harper's cabinet. The question now is whether Scheer can keep the social conservative portion of the party in check or if they'll dominate the image of the post-Harper CPC. Given how the surprising amount of support there was for Trost and how much support of Trost went to Scheer, i'm skeptical of whether he'll keep them as quiet as Harper did, especially with Scheer previously espousing the garbage that he has about "traditional marriage".
AuthenticM
Member
The thing is, at some point, the CPC will have to convince its voterbase that they have to stop pushing a socially conservative platform or else they will never get reelected into power. Even simply having a socially conservative leader who says he won't try to change the law to fit his values is detrimental to the party's chance of getting elected again. If the voterbase cannot accept that, they are doomed to irrelevancy.
Imagine if the more moderate conservatives split off from the CPC to recreate the progressive-conservative party. How amazing would that be.
Imagine if the more moderate conservatives split off from the CPC to recreate the progressive-conservative party. How amazing would that be.
KernelPanic
Member
Even if the CPC bury all ambitions of social conservatism, climate change denial alone would be enough to turn me off. Harper never stayed away from that either.
And Scheer winning gives him a platform, even if he loses in 2019 so he's already got that. Disappointed that Chong didn't stand a chance of winning.
So now the Cons are complaining that the Commission on missing and murdered Indigenous women isn't proceeding swiftly enough? That's rich...
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/loud-exchange-over-mmiw-in-question-period-1.4138291
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/loud-exchange-over-mmiw-in-question-period-1.4138291
"We had 10 years to do something about this terrible problem and did absolutely nothing but we expect it to be done and the issue fixed in 2 years under the liberals otherwise it's a failure!"
Morrigan Stark
Arrogant Smirk
Ambrose's style would have helped the party more than a new full time leader, especially when that new leader is going to push them harder into Harper territory than she ever would have dreamed. It's not unexpected, it's just projecting onto the government, but their base will lap it up and only people like us on a forum will call them on it, not the media or the Liberals themselves. Sheer trying to play the optics game.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Now two short of a majority.Voter turnout is also below 50% right now.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
So BC NDP are directly attacking Alberta NDP now. Good times. lol
The really, really weird thing is that the provincial and federal NDPs are practically the same organization. BC has to be in some weird reality to think that attacking the AB NDP was a good idea...
gutter_trash
Banned
Who's gonna make them? The NDP's house is not really in order right now.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
If they can ram through electoral reform without the wishy washiness of every promise of electoral reform in the last decade, then the Green come out as major winners and, if nothing else, probably secure a place for themselves for the foreseeable future..
In practise that really isn't true. The provincial wings have always had distinct identities, particularly in the places where the NDP has succeeded in becoming one of the big two parties.
EDIT - And back to Nova Scotia, the Liberals win a second straight majority (albeit only a two-seat one).
That is true, but that's presuming that PR works in their favor -- ie. be a part of the governing coalition. There may be a groundwell of various grassroots parties if reform does happen, which may inadvertently dilute Green support.
I would've generally preferred the Greens with the Liberals, but with major policy concessions of some sort.
Hmm, speaking of that, how is the Sask NDP party doing these days?
Ended up 27 / 17 / 7 for Liberals, PC and NDP respectively. A bare majority that could swing with by-elections. Damn close.
Silent Chief
Member
Did you miss that convention that got Mulcair voted out and where the provincial organizations played a prominent role? The ones in power anyway.
matthewwhatever
Member
Given that electoral reform failed to meet the required threshold both times they held a referendum on it, I'm not sure that ramming it through is the best idea. A referendum is pretty much a necessity, since you can't give voters a say the first two times, and then take it away the third time because you didn't like the first time answers.
I don't want to say that the NDP are *hurt* by being in power -- or, in the BC NDP's case, in a position on the cusp of power -- since it's better to be in government than in opposition, but it feels like it will complicate things for the federal NDP if/when Canada's two NDP governments hold stances on pipelines and the environment that are be fundamentally opposed to each other. It's not really a difference that you can paper over. Either the Alberta NDP gets their way and the BC NDP ignore their environmentalist wing, or the Alberta NDP doesn't make any progress on pipelines and they lose the next election.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
At the very least, they could simplify the question and just make it 50+1 instead of whatever BS they had last time (two thirds of ridings above 60% or something absurd like that).
I assume the Alberta NDP are doomed once the right unites again. I'd write them off since I have to assume Albertan NDP support is as milquetoast and temporary as Quebec NDP support.
homeworkfilms
Member
This is not at all true with the AB NDP. They have distanced themselves quite a bit from the federal NDP over the last few years. Especially at the last convention and the conversation around the LEAP manifesto. The current AB NDP government is very much governing from the center and some of its policies are quite at odds with what most would understand NDP priorities to be. The biggest tension being oil extraction and pipelines. Hence this dispute.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
I mean... it's an economy based on oil. I don't know if they can figure something else to replace the oil industry, but they seem to have gone all in on pipelines to try to salvage the economy.
Besides, they won because they were the only choice after the racist party and the cronyism King Ralph party.
homeworkfilms
Member
I mailed in my NDP vote from Montreal to do my part last election. I remain understanding of their goals in AB but also pretty conflicted overall. Oil prices may continue to crater. I am not sure how doubling down on oil is that great of a policy. Again at the same time understanding why they would disagree and continue to argue very strongly for these pipelines.
killer rin
Member
The agreement that the two parties signed says they are going to do a Referendum putting all their effort campaigning towards the Pro-Reform side. You can also easily guess that it'll be a simple 50%+1 result will equal reform with none of the super-majority in x amount of ridings conditions.
Yep. The conflict between the NDP in Alberta and BC is basically an existential crisis for the whole party. I don't think it's the cause, but a symptom (LEAP was the first shots fired, basically). They have to resolve it or they'll fracture.
Some good thoughts from Colby Cosh on the Green/NDP coalition and potential issue of who will be speaker.
The speaker gets a 50% boost to the basic MLA salary, which currently would add $52,940.92 to their compensation. Surely some backbencher Liberal MLA, knowing they could face up to 4 years in opposition, may find that salary bonus appealing.
The speaker gets a 50% boost to the basic MLA salary, which currently would add $52,940.92 to their compensation. Surely some backbencher Liberal MLA, knowing they could face up to 4 years in opposition, may find that salary bonus appealing.
gutter_trash
Banned
boils down to regional governing realists versus protest party ideologues.
It boils down to the NDP having more internal factions and turfs than the federal Liberals or Conservatives. It's insane that they haven't split up into different parties yet.
Because it's her constitutional right as premier right now to give a throne speech, go through the confidence motion, etc.
curiouscharles
Member
well, because they haven't had the confidence vote yet.
Christy will take first shot at a confidence vote, as is her right [which will fail, unless hell boils over], then the NDP / Greens will get to go next.
i dunno about anybody else, but i've practically been in tears watching Horgan and Weaver during all their press conferences this week.
i don't think very highly of Weaver or the BC Greens [or the federal Greens, for that matter], but this political cooperation [to topple the evil BC "liberals"] is about the coolest fucking thing i've ever witnessed in provincial politics in my lifetime.
I wouldn't bet on them being destroyed by a united right in 2019. People in Alberta may not like the power moves the right is doing to unite and the united right wing party may not be that attractive for most albertans because they are either to right on social issues and/or economic issues or they have huge flaws that make them unelectable
Now that we on the topic of the UCP in Alberta again derek fildebrandt wants to ban all 2014 floorcrossers from joining the UCP as potential 2019 provincial election candidates. http://calgaryherald.com/news/polit...eking-nomination-in-united-conservative-party
I love the irony when the current PC and Wildrose MLA's would be ditching their political parties to run for the new one.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
That just seems like sour grapes and bitterness. lol
Pancake Mix
Copied someone else's pancake recipe
...Conversely, they might be too close to the centre on some issues for many Albertans also. It's a two-way street.
However, I think a united right is virtually certain to win there in 2019 because it's Alberta. The exception does not make the rule and I don't see some massive shift to the left actually going on there.
I give them around a 50% chance of winning now.A lot of the things that hurt the PC's and Wildrose in 2012 and 2015 can still hurt the UCP.
Pancake Mix
Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Even in 2015, their combined vote total in each riding would easily push them past the post.
I know you're talking about a decline in votes as you expect some voters to be turned off by them, but I doubt that has the effect of reducing their chance of winning from a near certainty.
Um it doesn't work like that. They wouldn't be getting 50%+ of the vote in the ridings they got above 50% of the vote if they were united,They are going to lose people to the AB Liberals, AB Party and AB NDP in the 2019 election.
Cash seems to think the incumbent Liberal speaker may re-offer.
In some respects I'm kind of surprised, since that's the Liberals effectively conceding the NDP/Greens a working majority. But they may just have decided that a few years out of power will allow for an effective reboot (eventually every governing party needs one).
Pancake Mix
Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Yes, I know that.
But only a fool thinks that 30+30=30 just because a few will be turned off the larger party. The reason for this merger is that they'll do better in elections together, with much of the Wildrose's base being disgruntled old PC voters. They're not going to lose 50 percent of their support due to not liking the other party.
There's no real way that a united right doesn't win in Alberta, realistically.
Yeah. They do have momentum right now but a united right has a chance of destroying their chances of winning the next provincial election at this point The AB Party may ruin things for them to despite what they think.
If they juke right, and there's no real reason to believe they won't, they'll lose the cities. If they lose the cities, they can't win.
Alberta's ridings aren't what they were ten years ago. And they'll be even less so by 2019 because a redistricting is going to take away a huge amount of the power imbalance rural ridings enjoyed.
It's anything but a sure thing a united right wins anymore.
Alberta's ridings aren't what they were ten years ago. And they'll be even less so by 2019 because a redistricting is going to take away a huge amount of the power imbalance rural ridings enjoyed.
It's anything but a sure thing a united right wins anymore.
since no party got a majority of seats she is still premier because her party got the most seats of the three. But now that the Ndp and greens joined together and now have a majority of the seats, they can vote her out in a vote of non confidence. that'll come at the throne speech on the first day. Then the lieutenant gov can ask the Ndp as the 2nd highest party to try and form the govt which they will with the greens... or she can call a new election but no one wants that. Clark and the liberals could have resigned and such i believe, skipping this step but her arrogance wont let her.
Nitpick: She's actually still the premiere because she hasn't resigned or lost a confidence vote yet. In westminster systems, the incumbent first minister is first minister until one of those things happen. Even if they outright lose the election. For example, Harper was still PM after he lost the election until he went to the GG to resign.
matthewwhatever
Member
This...won't be very fun:
Considering the last time this happened we came within a few hairs of losing the country, I don't expect that another round of constitutional navel-gazing will be particularly productive for Canada, either.
Yeah. 2015 didn't happen in a vacuum. Redford's win in 2011 happened because the province's centre-left joined with the Red Tories to deliver her a majority. Whether that'll happen the next election, too, remains to be seen, but I think assuming that Alberta continues being Canada's most conservative province just because it's always been that way ignores some pretty significant demographic changes.
Considering the last time this happened we came within a few hairs of losing the country, I don't expect that another round of constitutional navel-gazing will be particularly productive for Canada, either.
Yeah. 2015 didn't happen in a vacuum. Redford's win in 2011 happened because the province's centre-left joined with the Red Tories to deliver her a majority. Whether that'll happen the next election, too, remains to be seen, but I think assuming that Alberta continues being Canada's most conservative province just because it's always been that way ignores some pretty significant demographic changes.
Some calgary lawyer that worked with prentice on his leadership bid in 2014 is running for the UCP leadership now.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/doug-schweitzer-ucp-leadership-1.4141742
He also had this to say about Kenney and I think Jean
"It's not going to come from the NDP and I worry that our soon to be formed centre-right party will opt for career politicians who are hyper-partisan and focused on the wrong issues," he said.
I'm not sure if the UCP base once it forms will support Schweitzer, but he probably will be a better candidate then Kenney, Jean and whoever else from the wildrose and PC's compete for the leadership of the UCP if it forms.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/doug-schweitzer-ucp-leadership-1.4141742
He also had this to say about Kenney and I think Jean
"It's not going to come from the NDP and I worry that our soon to be formed centre-right party will opt for career politicians who are hyper-partisan and focused on the wrong issues," he said.
I'm not sure if the UCP base once it forms will support Schweitzer, but he probably will be a better candidate then Kenney, Jean and whoever else from the wildrose and PC's compete for the leadership of the UCP if it forms.
gutter_trash
Banned
Premier Couillard is a moron,
He wants to reopen Constitutional debates.
Thank God Trudeau said no.
Watch that hunchback Mulcair decide to say yes
He wants to reopen Constitutional debates.
Thank God Trudeau said no.
Watch that hunchback Mulcair decide to say yes
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