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New Quinnipiac Polls: Hillary leads Trump by 1 in FL, PA. Trump leads by 4 in OH
- Thread starter NeoXChaos
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Orbis Tabula
Member
Quinn tends to oversample white voters. Probably doing it here, too. That'll make Trump look stronger than in reality.
Seems that quinnpac oversampled whites.
The demo in Florida alone is super wonky given that suddenly Hispanic turnout is down from 2012 according to Quin. Looks like they need to change up how they're weighing certain demos.
2012 Florida race:
White: 67%
Black: 13%
Latino: 17%
65+: 24%
QUIN Florida:
White: 69%
Black: 11%
Hispanic: 15%
65+: 27%
???
The demo in Florida alone is super wonky given that suddenly Hispanic turnout is down from 2012 according to Quin. Looks like they need to change up how they're weighing certain demos.
2012 Florida race:
White: 67%
Black: 13%
Latino: 17%
65+: 24%
QUIN Florida:
White: 69%
Black: 11%
Hispanic: 15%
65+: 27%
???
I never thought I would vote for a Republican, especially Trump.
But seeing him on the left of her on economic issues has me thinking again.
She sides with business/wealth on almost everything, has been for censorship and doesn't seem to care about legalizing cannabis, so there's not much that she has going for her in my view besides the (D) next to her name.
But seeing him on the left of her on economic issues has me thinking again.
She sides with business/wealth on almost everything, has been for censorship and doesn't seem to care about legalizing cannabis, so there's not much that she has going for her in my view besides the (D) next to her name.
Punchy4486
Banned
And so are the American people, apparently?
They've been doing this the entire cycle, and it's one of the reasons that HRC/Dems have been doing relatively poorly in their polls.
Hillary has more votes and more delegates. The people have spoken, not the DNC.
HUELEN10
Member
Of course he does, don't believe the delusional BernieBros projection, and don't believe the media's lies.
44 for Sanders is awesome in Florida. What he said is true, there is a clear, narrow though it might be, but clear path to victory.
True. Sanders has had to withstand those scathing attack ads non-stop... So we definitely know how he'll fair in a GE.
Oh wait, there hasn't been a single one. Why do you think that is?
Republic of Ezo
Member
He's not to the left of her economically. His tax plan is a bigger giveaway to the rich than the Bush tax cuts even. And he's not for fiscal stimulus either.
The Albatross
Member
If only /r/feelthebern were given the delegates it deserves at the DNC
On trade, he is
Macho Madness
Member
At least this election makes it easy to tell which 15 minutes of CNN someone has watched.
And also which people are okay with supporting racist policies because they believe the guy who literally represents nothing but business/wealth is going to somehow help them.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Yikes.
And lol at the share of the white vote going up this year. Yeah, that's definitely happening (for the first time in 30 years with Trump on the ticket). SureJan.gif
puebla
Member
Yeah, I wouldn't have any idea. This election is scary because Donald is going to turn this process into an episode of Jerry Springer and cable news eats it up. Hillary is stiff and robotic and she doesn't have the attitude to fight back. President Obama is going to have to play the attack dog.
HUELEN10
Member
Trust me, you are not alone. Vote with your heart, vote for numero uno first (that means you), and don't let anyone push you down, regardless of who you choose.
Good Job Bob
Member
HillaryGAF right now:
Macho Madness
Member
You mean the issue where if he got his way economists think he would plunge the entire world into a second great depression and throw a billion people into extreme poverty?
HillaryGAF right now:
Swear to god, it's like shooting fish in a barrel.
HUELEN10
Member
You'd think so, but no.
Macho Madness
Member
HillaryGAF right now:
Those who know what they're doing are looking at the aggregate anyway.
DontBeThatGuy
Member
He wants cut taxes for the rich, and only just recently flip flopped on min. wage, and has been quoted with wanting to open up libel laws so he can sue the media for being mean to him, and essentially wants to censor an entire religion from coming in. He has also opposed Legalizing weed during his campaign, unless he's also flip-flopped on that in a matter of months.
So, how is he better economically(go read analysis of his tax plan btw), and how is he better with censorship?
Orbis Tabula
Member
HillaryGAF right now:
Got it. No context allowed.
They also know that Quin over samples whites and are among the worst pollsters this cycle.
those Americans don't count, being low information red state voters
Republic of Ezo
Member
Large tariffs aren't necessarily left or right. And how exactly is TPP going to affect you personally to such a degree that you're willing to vote for a racist crypto-fascist?
DONALD TRUMP IS A WEALTHY BUSINESSMAN WHO ADMITS TO BUYING POLITICIANS FOR FAVORS.
gutter_trash
Banned
Trump is going for the Rust Bell and it is clearly his best and only chance.
Let Trump take Ohio, who cares. He is going to lose Georgia and Arizona
Let Trump take Ohio, who cares. He is going to lose Georgia and Arizona
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Yea but he's just saying stuff and pandering to the right and lying to them, so you can trust that he's really a secret liberal on tons of stuff, way more than that other person who is saying really liberal shit who is secretly a republican!
He is more isolationist than her on trade. Last I looked successful Dem presidents were typically globalists. FDR most notably broke through strong isolationist sentiment that was enabling Hitler and in part fueling the depression.
And this is why Quinnipiac, a shitty pollster to begin with, can get results like this. Bernie Sanders has poisoned the well by convincing a bunch of people that manufacturing left the U.S. due to free trade deals. Manufacturing left for cheap and exploitable labor, free trade deals were the U.S. getting something in return in response to that already occurring exodus.
But populist sentiment loves it's isolationism.
I don't believe any of the right-wing stuff he's saying now.
He's historically been more liberal, and now seems to be doing 180s on stuff now that he has the nomination. He also said Republican doesn't mean conservative, which is interesting.
I don't vote for the party that's in bed with business typically, hence my reservations on voting for Hillary.
She is also just not progressive on the issues I care the most about.
HUELEN10
Member
Are you me? Probably not, I don't think that is quite the case, but Trump is definitely more liberal than a lot of people think on some things.
hammysaurusrex
Member
Protectionism and isolationism isn't really a cut-and-dry left vs. right issue. It's weird how this election cycle suddenly it's become a litmus test for ideological purity.
She's trying to do what other successful politician that won elections have done recently. She's going to focus on her positives and why she is a better person to lead the country then trump. She won't be fighting back against trump to negatively most likely and she will probably leave that to the Super PAC's and other groups or people supporting her and campaigning for her. I expect Sanders to eventually support her and maybe campaign for her. Obama,Bill Clinton and etc will also campaign for her to.
If she took a bunch of states that go to republicans usually while donald got a few states that usually go to the dems it should almost cancel out any and she would still win. This scenario is unlikely to happen anyway in this election. Trump will lose all of the rust belt states that usually go to the dems because some republicans and a lot of the democrats traditional base will still vote for Hilary in these states.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Now is it better to be left, or to be correct? Anti-nuclear is left. Anti-GMO is left. Those are nonetheless stupid positions.
No, he is being sarcastic.
But you're OK with voting for a racist.
HillaryGAF right now:
Well, no. It's 6 months out. We're guaranteed to get some noise in all of these polls, with a few showing the race tighter and a few showing it wider than it actually is. Freaking out over one poll is dumb, and so it "lololol I told you so."
But there's plenty of reasons to be suspect of QPac this cycle.
They've consistently oversampled the white voting share in almost all of the Democratic primary polls. They're showing a sample that would be the first time the white share of voting has gone up in 30 years, even as the vast majority of dying voters are white and the vast majority of new voters are minorities.
Orbis Tabula
Member
So is Huelen. Huelen is just more committed about it.
You disagree that he's a white supremacist?
His father was a known white supremacist. Donald Trump was sued and settled out of court for race based housing discrimination decades ago. His statements towards various other ethnicities this election cycle speak for themselves.
He isn't "kill all the people darker than taupe" white supremacy but he is decidedly "white men deserve to hold onto their positions of power through any means necessary" white supremacy. That is what he is dog whistling when he says "conservative".
Pat Buchanan loves him for a reason.
Republic of Ezo
Member
Yes. The Democratic Party, throughout its entire history, has been for lower tariffs and traditionally it was the Republicans who favored higher tariffs like the Smoot-Hawley and Payne-Aldrich taxes. Notably it was Truman who pushed for lower tariffs globally after the war, and free trade became the policy of both parties only during the Cold War.
So do you believe the left-wing stuff that Hillary is saying now, or are we only going to pretend that Trump really has a secret set of morals?
Also, Trump has not "been more liberal". Historically, he has absolutely no coherent positions that even track an evolution on any issue, just throwing shit against the wall because he likes the way his own voice sounds.
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