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Pachter interview: Nintendo here to stay, PS4 won't be $599; PS4 cheaper than Nextbox

Hoo-doo

Banned
My bad. The only time I remember seeing a move controller during the PS meeting was with the Media Molecule demo.

Then again, it was like two in the morning and I was watching it on my iPad while half asleep.
Still completely unconvinced it'll be packed in though. it'll raise the price of the package which is something Sony will definitely be very concerned about.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
The Kinect 1.0 supposedly only costed Microsft $56 each at at launch over 2 years ago. Is the 2.0 version really going to be that expensive? Seems like they could easily make up that 50 dollars in ram costs.
 

Boss Man

Member
That would be a great way to do it.

They focus on goodwill (announce cross-buy before) or focus on profits (trying to get the double dippers).
It wouldn't be purely goodwill though, more people would be interested in buying the first available PS4 game just because it is. Also, I have to assume that a cross-gen title like that would sell under expectation on the newer console just because of how it would be perceived as a last-gen game (which it is essentially).

Plus, people who buy it now feel like they have more of a need to buy the PS4.

It'd be smart I think. Not expecting see TLOU on PS4 regardless though, especially not early.
 

FyreWulff

Member
Makes it even more puzzling why they didn't spend some of that to expand and prepare for HD development. Now their conservativeness is going to bite them in the ass.

It's a holdover from the 60s. Yamauchi never wanted to be in debt again after they saved the company, so they're fairly conservative with their money. They take creative risks, but financially they never bet the farm on anything.

They are investing in R&D for that type of stuff, but remember that their two competitors Sony and MS have access to absurd amounts of money and can shift money from one of their many divisions to the other. Nintendo is just games, they can't subsidize their consoles with OS income or movie sales.
 
It wouldn't be purely goodwill though, more people would be interested in buying the first available PS4 game just because it is. Also, I have to assume that a cross-gen title like that would sell under expectation on the newer console just because of how it would be perceived as a last-gen game (which it is essentially).

Plus, people who buy it now feel like they have more of a need to buy the PS4.

It'd be smart I think. Not expecting see TLOU on PS4 regardless though, especially not early.

That is an interesting way to think about it.

"Hey, I already have a game"

Thinking about the business side of all this (weirdly enough) is very exciting.
 
Has there been any cost rumors on the 720, BoM predictions..anything that suggests the two can't be be competitive in price or that the 720 is 100 cheaper? I have no idea where these things stemmed from.
 

AngryMoth

Member
PS4 has expensieve RAM and Nextbox has Kinect, I expect those 2 things to roughly cancel eachother out and they will launch at the same price, around $399. Unless of course Sony decides to bundle the PS Eye, but I really can't see that. Matching MS's price is way more important and it can't be that important to the system else it would have had a bigger presence in their unveil.

Interesting to note that Agent is still in development, I would have bet money it was cancelled years ago. Guess it must be a next gen title at this point. You never know, R* doesn't have anything announced for next year right?
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
No, they didn't mention it being bundled.

Logic says its going to be bundled.

Logic says if Sony was positive they wanted to bundle it, they would have announced it bundled feature right there, and probably have an actual game to show with it instead of a weird thrown together tech demo.

I'm guessing Sony is waiting to see PS4 eye reception by developers/investors, the Kinect 2.0 reveal and reception, and the next xbox's likely pricing plans before deciding something.
 

njean777

Member
Has there been any cost rumors on the 720, BoM predictions..anything that suggests the two can't be be competitive in price or that the 720 is 100 cheaper? I have no idea where these things stemmed from.

People thing the next xbox will be cheaper due to the ram difference. That is pretty much all people have to go on.
 

AgentP

Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
The Kinect 1.0 supposedly only costed Microsft $56 each at at launch over 2 years ago. Is the 2.0 version really going to be that expensive? Seems like they could easily make up that 50 dollars in ram costs.

That $56 leaves a lot of costs out of the equation. It is safe to assume it will add at least $50 to the 720 BOM if included, and that is a healthy chunk of the total; less than the APU, but more than just about any other single component.
 
Has there been any cost rumors on the 720, BoM predictions..anything that suggests the two can't be be competitive in price or that the 720 is 100 cheaper? I have no idea where these things stemmed from.

Hear is a somewhat informed guess at the cost of a ps4 thanks to some great work by zomgbbqftw

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=514688

So a couple of us at the bank have done a costing analysis this morning. I won't be able to give exact figures, as if we ever decide to release them publicly it will definitely blow my cover.

All figures in USD.

APU (CPU/GPU) - 85-90
8GB GDDR5 - 110-140
OS Chip (supposedly ARM based) - 12-18
Video encode/decode chip - 8-12
Blu-ray drive - 18-25
Hard drive - 38-50
I/O - 9-12
Wireless chip + antenna - 4
HDMI+HDCP - 11-15
Other - 25-35

Total - 320-401

Accessories:

DS4 - 18-30
PS4 Eye -$12-20
Mono headset - 3
Cabling/misc - 3

Unknown/Alpha:

Internal PSU - 25-55
Cooling - 20-38
Assembly - 13 (Based on being made in China, for made in Japan, make that ~ $45)

Total estimated system cost (no shipping and packaging) - $450-490

These figures are preliminary, and do not include assembly costs, power costs, cooling or shipping as the final design has not been shown and can't be estimated at this time.

Please, please, please remember that this is based on the specification only and cost prices that we know, without a PS4 in the hand there will be mistakes.
 

abasm

Member
Let's recap.

Pachter Translations said:
  • Thinks the PS4 will not launch at $399.
  • Strongly thinks Kinect 2.0 won't be bundled with 720 to undercut the PS4
  • Thinks nothing on PSN will be behind a paywall, including multiplayer.
  • Feels certain The Last of Us will not have a PS4 version
  • Nintendo's knock-knock-knocking on heaven's door
 

BadAss2961

Member
LOL

Pachter says positive things about Sony and Nintendo, says NeXtbox to be really expensive.

Gaf ok with him now.


He's been wrong so many times....and right so few times (on Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft, and other hardware/software/companies)...I'm not giving what he says even a second of consideration yet.
Everything except his prices sounds reasonable.
$599 was "reasonable" considering what was in PS3 too, but the question isn't whether the component parts technically are being offered at a steal, but whether the price is acceptable for what will primarily be a gaming machine at the mass market. Is $499 the type of price where PS4 can wiggle down fast enough to be competitive with Durango, for example, who will almost certainly come down at $399 or less?
Well, no in that case then. But I just don't expect a powerful new console like the PS4 to be at mass market price right out of the gate. I believe that $449 is the absolute lowest they'll go for the standard sku. $399 would be a miracle.

As long as Sony is releasing their console at the same time as the NextBox (or earlier), and isn't THAT much more expensive, they can compete.
 

noobasuar

Banned
I think it would Definetly be interesting if the 720 did cost more than the ps4 and was basically as powerful and came with the kinect BUT what would really make this interesting is if they do have BC and basically tell all 360 owners to go out and trade up for the 720 and receive like $100 to $150 off the selling price.

That could be a real good move for Microsoft I think.
 

slider

Member
I can't quite formulate a coherent position on what I think MS' pricing will be like. I had kind of convinced myself they understood price of entry as a key component for the mass market and, given the rumoured (confirmed?) desire to be an entertainment hub, they'd find a way to subsidise the cost (i.e. like a mobile phone contract) or new revenue streams with entertainment aas the key driver. Hmm.
 

BadAss2961

Member
I can't quite formulate a coherent position on what I think MS' pricing will be like. I had kind of convinced myself they understood price of entry as a key component for the mass market and, given the rumoured (confirmed?) desire to be an entertainment hub, they'd find a way to subsidise the cost (i.e. like a mobile phone contract) or new revenue streams with entertainment aas the key driver. Hmm.
I bet they'll go $399 regardless of whether it's a KinectBox or not.
 
So this guy on Gametag Radio podcast thinks the X86 processor is 32bit.

oh my god
KuGsj.gif

Well if you didn't know that the jaguar was a 64-bit processor it's not like it'd be a strange assumption. x86 is almost always used to refer to 32-bit processors. YES, I know there are x86-64 but I'm saying, most of the time it's x86 vs x64
 

Ding-Ding

Member
Kinect 2.0 technology to raise the cost next gen. For finger tracking...

Well at least when I see a demo version in the shops, kinect will be able to understand my mid digit
 
Well if you didn't know that the jaguar was a 64-bit processor it's not like it'd be a strange assumption. x86 is almost always used to refer to 32-bit processors. YES, I know there are x86-64 but I'm saying, most of the time it's x86 vs x64

the fact it has more than 3.5G ram should be a big giveaway no?
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I can't see, under any circumstances, how Durango ends up more expensive than PS4.
 

UrbanRats

Member
There is no way Microsoft will release at more than Sony.
Even if Kinect 2.0 is going to be super expensive for them, they will just go for a low price and the contract thing they have done with 360 slim this gen.
But there is no way they would launch at a full price higher than Sonys.
 

Rad-

Member
Kinect 2 could actually be cheaper than Kinect 1 because it lacks the neck motor. Most of the improvements are on the software side apparently.
 
They'll both have a $399 sku. I dont see Sony wanting to be the more expensive guy again. They'll match MS' price.

Kinect 2.0 inflates the price for 720
Ram inflates the price for the ps4

ps4 eye is shit. It's not advanced like Kinect 2.0. It's just a couple of cheap cameras + microphones. The cameras in your common cellphone are better.
 

THE:MILKMAN

Member
Yes, 3 years ago, with less dense chips. That's why he's saying there's no way it's >100 USD now. And he's right.

Another point with memory is that it seems to reduce in price quickly. PS3's XDR RAM according to iSuppli reduced from an estimated $48 in November 2006 to under $10 in December 2009.

And XDR was only really used in the PS3.
 

evangd007

Member
Why is there days when Pachter seems to have a grudge against Nintendo and than days where he's fine with them? Confuses me.

The last time he doomed Nintendo he didn't doom them to fail, close up shop, and go third party, but doomed them to not return to profitability in the near term.
 
Well I was already expecting PS4 to be more expensive so this doesn't come of as a surprise. I hope Nintendo stays around though, and that Ps4 can still be sold at 450$ max.
 
Another point with memory is that it seems to reduce in price quickly. PS3's XDR RAM according to iSuppli reduced from an estimated $48 in November 2006 to under $10 in December 2009.

And XDR was only really used in the PS3.

Actually, camera sensors like CCD/CMOS/etc also drop in price majorly. Kinect 2 is higher res than Kinect 1 but it may cost the same or less to manufacture.

EDIT: Cheaper than launch Kinect, not cheaper than current Kinect. Then again there's that whole neck motor thing too.
 

Kyzer

Banned
we also have to consider the massive price reduction everything technology is about to undergo in the next 5 years. tablets are supposed to catch up to the ps4 within its lifetime.

i think nintendo very much takes advantage of the early adopter theory and thats behind the lack of good marketing or pricepoint early on. they can apologize and give free games all they want, they know damn well what theyre doing.
 

Concept17

Member
All of what he said seems completely reasonable and I believe most of it will happen.

The nextbox price however, I'm not so sure. If MS plans to spearhead their console with Kinect, then there is a good chance we'll see a higher price. Otherwise it'll be the same price or slightly lower.

If Last of Us is confirmed for PS4, will anyone here wait to get it, instead of buying the PS3 copy?
 
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