Yeah but I wouldn't be surprised if Netflix and Hulu not being behind a paywall helps sell PS3s.
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Pachter interview: Nintendo here to stay, PS4 won't be $599; PS4 cheaper than Nextbox
- Thread starter shinobi602
- Start date
THE:MILKMAN
Member
I don't doubt that. But what a lot of people aren't realising with the 720 is that it has 32MB eSRAM that is likely quite expensive and more importantly difficult to make. That could cost Microsoft a lot more in the long run than GDDR5 if it causes them manufacturing problems.
I do still think Microsoft will come in cheaper at retail, I just don't think the BOMs will be more than $50 apart.
No way in hell that the PS4 is cheaper than Microsoft's nextbox with all those rams crammed in there.
Microsoft would be super silly to be the most expensive console given they are reportedly targeting the mid core casual crowd of gamer.
I say Wii-U drops to $299.99 PS4 has two skus- $399.99 and $499.99 (4 will come with a year free of PSN+ or whatever they call it and a Larger HD). Microsoft will sell two skus as well. One for $299-350.00 and aq $499.99 with Kinect and One year of Live included.
Microsoft would be super silly to be the most expensive console given they are reportedly targeting the mid core casual crowd of gamer.
I say Wii-U drops to $299.99 PS4 has two skus- $399.99 and $499.99 (4 will come with a year free of PSN+ or whatever they call it and a Larger HD). Microsoft will sell two skus as well. One for $299-350.00 and aq $499.99 with Kinect and One year of Live included.
pieatorium
Member
I very much doubt the share suff will be behind a paywall it's a big button on the controller they wouldn't bait and switch like that. I also don't see them putting other subscription stuff like netflix back there, a big reason PS3 is more popular for that stuff is because it isn't tied to a second sub and if multiplayer continues to be free then whats left is just the gakai stuff.
Already a plus member so I guess it wont be a big deal to me either way but I think more than just multiplayer will be in the "free teir"
Most of the rest of the stuff seems fairly reasonable
The ps4/xbox pricing could go either way
Kinect in every box is probably happening (and probably a good idea imo)
Even with a shrinking handheld base Nintendo still dominates there so much that combined with their cash reserves they could put out 3 dreamcasts in a row and still probably keep afloat
$399 PS4 seems like the general consensus
The two games mentioned are a bit more questionable, LoU getting a PS4 release might happen some time in the future but I doubt anything close to launch and Agent heh what if Agent is really The Last Guardian *headsplode*
Already a plus member so I guess it wont be a big deal to me either way but I think more than just multiplayer will be in the "free teir"
Most of the rest of the stuff seems fairly reasonable
The ps4/xbox pricing could go either way
Kinect in every box is probably happening (and probably a good idea imo)
Even with a shrinking handheld base Nintendo still dominates there so much that combined with their cash reserves they could put out 3 dreamcasts in a row and still probably keep afloat
$399 PS4 seems like the general consensus
The two games mentioned are a bit more questionable, LoU getting a PS4 release might happen some time in the future but I doubt anything close to launch and Agent heh what if Agent is really The Last Guardian *headsplode*
Beer Monkey
Member
I'd consider that a megaton. If it's under $499 I'll spit milk all over my monitor during their E3 presser.
Rice-Eater
Member
Didn't a cost analysis for the PS3 end up being around $800? Sony has always taken a loss on hardware but that's just absurd if they were really losing $200+ per system. With PS4 supposedly being around $450-$500, losing $100 or less per system is much more reasonable this time around and right in line with the PS2 when it was $375 to manufacture and $300 at launch.
KingJ2002
Member
Both systems will release at 399 if they have any chance of market penetration. People aside from the hardcore are perfectly content with the visuals from the ps3/xbox 360 era so there's not much to move them unless the price is right or the experience is that much better on these newer systems. Nintendo proved the mass market doesn't care about a spec bump.
So the likelihood of the start of this gen will be
1. Both Xbox 720 & PS4 will be 399.99
2. Nintendo will release new black / white SKU bundles both retailing for 299.99
3. PSN will be behind a paywall. Free access will only be for promotions and updates like XBL Silver
Nintendo will probably end up in 3rd place this gen... but the console will still sell a significant amount due to brand awareness.
So the likelihood of the start of this gen will be
1. Both Xbox 720 & PS4 will be 399.99
2. Nintendo will release new black / white SKU bundles both retailing for 299.99
3. PSN will be behind a paywall. Free access will only be for promotions and updates like XBL Silver
Nintendo will probably end up in 3rd place this gen... but the console will still sell a significant amount due to brand awareness.
gutter_trash
Banned
is Kinekt really that expensive?
Glorified G
Member
Going off rumors MS is going with 8 gb of ram too and is also including ESRAM which isn't cheap and will make their APU pretty big.
We have no idea about the BoM or the RoI to have any idea which one will be more expensive.
Now I'm wondering if Last Guardian has continued to stay being developed on PS3 or if the delays are due to them deciding to bring it to PS4 instead.
If they've moved it to the PS4, that will be the one thing that will make me have to get one. I really hope it's still coming out on PS3.
If they've moved it to the PS4, that will be the one thing that will make me have to get one. I really hope it's still coming out on PS3.
Crimson_Gold
Member
he knows nothing, it is laughable.
He thinks 360 was media centric while PS3 was game-focused.
PS3 that won BD format war for Sony.
PS3 that has highest Netflix usage of all devices out there.
PS3 that has had DVR for years.
PS3 that has DLNA support built in.
PS3 that was advertised from start as Media hub to control the living room.
From CNN on PS3 4/1/2007
And he gets paid for knowing nothing.
What the heck do you do with your time if you are an analyst and dont know some basic things about your industry that you follow?
I would like what Patcher is saying to be true, I think he might be wrong, but he is a g. damn genious compared to other losers posing as analysts for this industry.
RPGCrazied
Member
I hope he is right with Nintendo. I want them to succeed, they have some of my favorite franchises of gaming. Mostly Zelda/Metroid. That is why I'm holding out on buying one, neither franchise is released on the Wii U yet.
Boss Man
Member
I think Nintendo will be fine, they just won't have another blow-out success this gen. It'll be more solid and slow-burning, which is probably better for gamers anyway. They're going to have to put a lot more effort into it.
If you repeat a lie enough it becomes true.
Wasn't that the Wii?
so true especially since i'm getting ps4 day one
tehrik-e-insaaf
Member
12 billion US dollars + 2 billion short term liquid securities (probably US treasuries) + receivables + 32% of cash held by Pokemon Company = my estimates are around ~17 billion USD
No Debt
P.S.
Looks like Pachter actually read the last thread on his comments RE: Nintendo
ProfessorMoran
Member
Pachter you had me at $399. You had me at $399.
"Jack Tretton told Pach they definitely will not charge $599 again."
With that big HDD they were talking about, 8 GB of RAM...I expect a lot of money lost then.
"Thinks the PS4 will launch at $399."
Tons lost it is.
"Strongly thinks Kinect 2.0 will be bundled with 720 and make it more expensive than PS4"
If Kinect 2.0 is actually expensive to make, yeah. Problem is- I never thought it was such big tech that it would cost $150 at launch. Kinect 2.0 integrated into the console tech should cut costs.
"Thinks everything on PSN will be behind a paywall, except multiplayer"
Social won't. Facebook would die if people had to pay for it.
"Feels certain The Last of Us will have a PS4 version"
Long development on the PS3 makes me think it'll be PS3's swan song in 2014.
"Talked to Sony about Agent, Sony's words: 'It's still under development'"
Sounds canned to me or changed into a completely new game.
"Nintendo's not going anywhere. Can go 20-30 years losing money like they are now before being in trouble."
He must have read that on another site that did an analysis of Nintendo's financials. Nintendo will however drop out of console market (sort of). I expect a collaboration with a company to make their next system more cutting edge, but they won't make the console themselves. So it'll be a Nintendo Wii V, by Samsung or something. It would greatly help Nintendo keep up with Sony/Microsoft while still creating a niche and getting third parties to port games.
With that big HDD they were talking about, 8 GB of RAM...I expect a lot of money lost then.
"Thinks the PS4 will launch at $399."
Tons lost it is.
"Strongly thinks Kinect 2.0 will be bundled with 720 and make it more expensive than PS4"
If Kinect 2.0 is actually expensive to make, yeah. Problem is- I never thought it was such big tech that it would cost $150 at launch. Kinect 2.0 integrated into the console tech should cut costs.
"Thinks everything on PSN will be behind a paywall, except multiplayer"
Social won't. Facebook would die if people had to pay for it.
"Feels certain The Last of Us will have a PS4 version"
Long development on the PS3 makes me think it'll be PS3's swan song in 2014.
"Talked to Sony about Agent, Sony's words: 'It's still under development'"
Sounds canned to me or changed into a completely new game.
"Nintendo's not going anywhere. Can go 20-30 years losing money like they are now before being in trouble."
He must have read that on another site that did an analysis of Nintendo's financials. Nintendo will however drop out of console market (sort of). I expect a collaboration with a company to make their next system more cutting edge, but they won't make the console themselves. So it'll be a Nintendo Wii V, by Samsung or something. It would greatly help Nintendo keep up with Sony/Microsoft while still creating a niche and getting third parties to port games.
digoutyoursoul
Member
lol the photo in the source link resembles the trollface to some extent, I did a quick editing - for fun only, I have nothing against Pachter
Avatar for grabs:
Lol like it
Delusibeta
Banned
So, PS4 will be $599 confirmed, and Xbox 3 will be less and won't come with Kinect 2. At least everything on Playstation Network will be free.
You might want to buy a bib.
If every Xbox comes with Kinect, I imagine it'll be pretty heavily subsidized to bring the price down lower than PS4. There's no way MS will try to saddle core gamers (the ones who will buy the console at launch) with weaker hardware and a higher price point just for Kinect. A move like that would seriously hurt uptake and I think they're smarter than that.
Or maybe they totally think Kinect 2 will appeal to core gamers this time around. And maybe it will, who knows?
Or maybe they totally think Kinect 2 will appeal to core gamers this time around. And maybe it will, who knows?
pharmboy044
Member
pharmboy044
Member
Oh come on, any other hints of what we might see at E3?
GoofsterStud
Member
$399 PS4: Yes please
$399 Nextbox: Require online, used games: Not thanks, $199 sure, not a cent higher.
$399 Nextbox: Doesn't require you to be online, used games, rentals, etc... Sure.
$249 Wii-U: Sure, not a cent higher.
$399 Nextbox: Require online, used games: Not thanks, $199 sure, not a cent higher.
$399 Nextbox: Doesn't require you to be online, used games, rentals, etc... Sure.
$249 Wii-U: Sure, not a cent higher.
specialguy
Banned
no way i see ps4 cheaper than next box. the difference in ram costs alone should be about 100 dollars. thats absolutely ginormous in a BOM.
the gpu's should be about the same size and cost. more cu's vs esram.
much is made of kinect cost but i highly doubt it's all that expensive. especially since theyre getting rid of the motor. it's little more than some cheap cameras. additionally, isn't all or part of move/eyetoy/whatever likely to ship with ps4, according to vgleaks etc?
i dont see 599 in play with PS4 but i DO see 499 in play...for the top SKU at least. This is still much better than 599 especially after accounting 7 years of inflation.
But. it's worth noting in terms of total silicon, ps4/720 are likely coming in drastically less than 360/ps3 did. probably 300mm^2 vs 400-500 last gen. So pricing may be possible to be lower than I expect.
If MS doesnt hit 299 with a viable non-gimped SKU imo, they're being greedy.
Since it's likely all SKU's of next gen consoles ship with a hard drive, it'll be an interesting question how they "gimp" the low end SKU's enough to keep the high end ones attractive. If the low had a 160 HDD and the high 500, for example? Would people still feel compelled to go for the 500? Interesting stuff.
the gpu's should be about the same size and cost. more cu's vs esram.
much is made of kinect cost but i highly doubt it's all that expensive. especially since theyre getting rid of the motor. it's little more than some cheap cameras. additionally, isn't all or part of move/eyetoy/whatever likely to ship with ps4, according to vgleaks etc?
i dont see 599 in play with PS4 but i DO see 499 in play...for the top SKU at least. This is still much better than 599 especially after accounting 7 years of inflation.
But. it's worth noting in terms of total silicon, ps4/720 are likely coming in drastically less than 360/ps3 did. probably 300mm^2 vs 400-500 last gen. So pricing may be possible to be lower than I expect.
If MS doesnt hit 299 with a viable non-gimped SKU imo, they're being greedy.
Since it's likely all SKU's of next gen consoles ship with a hard drive, it'll be an interesting question how they "gimp" the low end SKU's enough to keep the high end ones attractive. If the low had a 160 HDD and the high 500, for example? Would people still feel compelled to go for the 500? Interesting stuff.
username12
Member
Kinect was estimated in 2010 to cost Microsoft $56 to make. But more than just build cost, there's research and also advertising costs to recoup. And I imagine Kinect 2 will be even more costly to build.
Also, in one way or another, I bet Microsoft will be paying more for Blu-Ray than Sony does.
I don't understand how you can come to that conclusion. What in Nintendo's history would indicate they would outsource hardware development? The last time they had those types of conversation, they created their biggest rival. Nintendo will continue to manufacture their own hardware. It is a key competency and major component of its overall strategy.
I'd say its more likely they would buy or work with a company on their OS offerings.
AstroNut325
Member
WHAT????
I don't see a tablet sporting this kind of hardware for at least 5-7 years. Even then how are they going to cram a 2TF GPU and fast memory in it?
Gahiggidy
My aunt & uncle run a Mom & Pop store, "The Gamecube Hut", and sold 80k WiiU within minutes of opening.
Nintendo should open a theme park and animation studio. And I'm not joking.
I've always wanted them to do something like this.. it'd be incredible.
There are still 5 percent of us holding out in the "Asshole club".
Snowden's Secret
Banned
Star Fox themed steel dualing coasters. Hnng
Represent.
Represent(ative) of bad opinions
Link in the OP doesn't work anymore
Yes it does, Sony stated that at the conference.
Errr given that so many people in the "know" are saying that spec sheet is wrong.... I honest don't know.
That is not what he is saying.
"Development" is one way of putting it. Everything at rockstar seems to be about GTA5 and getting a handle on next-gen.
Who knows.
Does the initial price bother you that much? Also just going by RAM price trends, this shouldn't be the hold-up of the pricing of the system long term.
tehrik-e-insaaf
Member
This is wrong. Nintendo holds in US dollars, not in Yen - the reduction in 304 is mostly exchange related losses + some small operating losses
The 2012 annual report is based on a highly appreciated Yen value
Under 78 yen/dollar --- 946 billion yen = ~12.3 billion USD
But their total cash is higher than the 946 billion yen you list according to the 2012 annual report
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2012/annual1203e.pdf - see page 22
Have a Nice Day
Member
So this guy on Gametag Radio podcast thinks the X86 processor is 32bit.
oh my god
he didn't say something wrong btw
Penguins&PolarBears
Member
The wisdom of including Kinect standard comes down a few factors.
Microsoft doesn't make any money off of someone using their console for viewing movies and unlike Nintendo and other consumer electronics companies they don't sell their consoles for profit.
It's not about whether you think it's stupid or not. It's about whether including those services for free blows apart their business model or not.
If someone buys a PS4 then decides $70 games are too expensive and uses it mainly for watching Netflix, Hulu, Blu-ray, some used games and maybe a few PSN games then Sony loses a lot of money. So you may feel all warm and fuzzy about not having to get a PS4 subscription, but Sony takes it in the rear. Why should you care if Sony loses money, well tell me about that new SOCOM game that's coming out from Zipper.
- How integral is it to every game made for the machine? It has to enhance video game design in an additive way for consumers and developers. Opening up new genres in dance, fitness, fighting and sports like Kinect 1 did isn't enough. It has to be something developers can make use of in almost any game genre. What can it do beyond motion control. Will developers get eye tracking, or facial expression reading, lip reading, finger recognition, 3D object scanning, accurate sound isolation, 3D on any TV, separate visuals based upon line of sight? Hobbyists and researchers have done a lot of cool things with Kinect, how much of that will get integrated into an SDK for games and apps?
- How integral is Kinect to non-gaming functions of the device? If a huge sales point is home automation, persistent video chat, and always on natural language recognition then Kinect could be a crucial component.
- How much knowledge and money can be made back from data collected through the sensor? We've seen the Sony patents on advertising. Compiling user feedback for ads, games and movies could become of enormous value to developers and advertisers.
- And finally how good is it? Is this a 20% improvement over the original or 200% improvement in functionality. Improvement doesn't just come from the hardware components but the software and OS resources that are now always dedicated to the device.
Microsoft doesn't make any money off of someone using their console for viewing movies and unlike Nintendo and other consumer electronics companies they don't sell their consoles for profit.
It's not about whether you think it's stupid or not. It's about whether including those services for free blows apart their business model or not.
If someone buys a PS4 then decides $70 games are too expensive and uses it mainly for watching Netflix, Hulu, Blu-ray, some used games and maybe a few PSN games then Sony loses a lot of money. So you may feel all warm and fuzzy about not having to get a PS4 subscription, but Sony takes it in the rear. Why should you care if Sony loses money, well tell me about that new SOCOM game that's coming out from Zipper.
They'd never make the capital investment to open a theme park, but I am shocked Universal Studios hasn't open a Nintendo-area attraction. Who is to say they haven't tried and been rejected, but damn, that would be awesome.
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