Aaron Strife
Banned
Romney is the worst major party nominee since... god, Mondale? I don't know. The only reason he's still in this is because the economy still sucks (but not as much!), and if it keeps getting better, his ass is grass, man.
Obama's still on shaky ground so I totally understand someone being down on his chances of re-election, but that has nothing to do with Romney. A sack of potatoes would look better in a debate against Obama than Mr. "I don't care about poor people" "I bet you 10,000 dollars" "I like firing people" "Corporations are people, my friend" "Who let the dogs out?" and is probably more relatable too.
Romney has no appeal to moderates since Gingrich raked him across the coals on Bain. There are a lot of things that can change between now and November, but Romney would have to gain superhuman strength and single-handedly prevent an asteroid collision with Earth to turn his favorables around.
And if nothing else - Kerry states+IA,CO,NM,NV. Obama's path to victory is pretty easy, all things considered.
NE - probably gone, Kerrey or no.
ND - I think Heitkamp's going to do really well here. She's been out of the political game long enough that she doesn't really have ties with Obama, but not too long that she's unknown to ND voters. Berg on the other hand doesn't have much going for him.
MT - This one is probably the next to go after NE, but Tester does have a lot of good will in the state. I could see him winning by the skin of his teeth.
MO - It really depends on if Obama is competitive here again (PPP had him tied with Romney 45-45). He doesn't even need to win the state, since McCaskill will get more outstate/rural support than he will. He could lose with 48% of the vote and it'd still probably get McCaskill over the hump. Jay Nixon is on the ballot too so there's that.
VA - Not sweating over it. Kaine's a solid fundraiser, beloved in the state for his tenure as governor, Obama's doing really well in polling here, etc. The fundamentals here are just great for Democrats.
WI - I get the idea that Wisconsin is sick of Republicans. Call it a hunch, I dunno. Obama's probably a safe bet here, and Baldwin is a strong candidate. I don't think her sexuality is going to have as much of an impact as everyone thinks - I'd imagine most of those people would vote for the GOP anyway, so who cares?
Then there's also MA and NV, where I'd consider the Dems favorites in those races. AZ is also on the table if Obama remains competitive there and Carmona blossoms.
If things go well for Democrats/Obama, a 55-seat majority isn't impossible. Granted, that's probably the best case scenario (save a tea party implosion in Indiana and Maine), but I'm actually more confident about Democrats retaining the Senate than regaining the House. For how much Democrats ran the table in 2006, the set of states being defended isn't too bad. It's not like 2010 where ND, IN, and AR were off the table almost immediately.
For the House, I'm guessing the generic ballot would pretty closely match the margin between Obama and Romney. If the election were held today, Democrats would probably gain about a dozen seats or so, which is obviously short. I just think things will get much better for Ds between now and then.
Obama's still on shaky ground so I totally understand someone being down on his chances of re-election, but that has nothing to do with Romney. A sack of potatoes would look better in a debate against Obama than Mr. "I don't care about poor people" "I bet you 10,000 dollars" "I like firing people" "Corporations are people, my friend" "Who let the dogs out?" and is probably more relatable too.
Romney has no appeal to moderates since Gingrich raked him across the coals on Bain. There are a lot of things that can change between now and November, but Romney would have to gain superhuman strength and single-handedly prevent an asteroid collision with Earth to turn his favorables around.
And if nothing else - Kerry states+IA,CO,NM,NV. Obama's path to victory is pretty easy, all things considered.
Democrats only really have six vulnerable seats - NE, ND, MT, MO, VA, WI. (Anyone who says NM or HI are up for grabs is full of shit)Diablos said:
NE - probably gone, Kerrey or no.
ND - I think Heitkamp's going to do really well here. She's been out of the political game long enough that she doesn't really have ties with Obama, but not too long that she's unknown to ND voters. Berg on the other hand doesn't have much going for him.
MT - This one is probably the next to go after NE, but Tester does have a lot of good will in the state. I could see him winning by the skin of his teeth.
MO - It really depends on if Obama is competitive here again (PPP had him tied with Romney 45-45). He doesn't even need to win the state, since McCaskill will get more outstate/rural support than he will. He could lose with 48% of the vote and it'd still probably get McCaskill over the hump. Jay Nixon is on the ballot too so there's that.
VA - Not sweating over it. Kaine's a solid fundraiser, beloved in the state for his tenure as governor, Obama's doing really well in polling here, etc. The fundamentals here are just great for Democrats.
WI - I get the idea that Wisconsin is sick of Republicans. Call it a hunch, I dunno. Obama's probably a safe bet here, and Baldwin is a strong candidate. I don't think her sexuality is going to have as much of an impact as everyone thinks - I'd imagine most of those people would vote for the GOP anyway, so who cares?
Then there's also MA and NV, where I'd consider the Dems favorites in those races. AZ is also on the table if Obama remains competitive there and Carmona blossoms.
If things go well for Democrats/Obama, a 55-seat majority isn't impossible. Granted, that's probably the best case scenario (save a tea party implosion in Indiana and Maine), but I'm actually more confident about Democrats retaining the Senate than regaining the House. For how much Democrats ran the table in 2006, the set of states being defended isn't too bad. It's not like 2010 where ND, IN, and AR were off the table almost immediately.
For the House, I'm guessing the generic ballot would pretty closely match the margin between Obama and Romney. If the election were held today, Democrats would probably gain about a dozen seats or so, which is obviously short. I just think things will get much better for Ds between now and then.
