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[StoOgE]

Finally, this moron gets stuck in "this guy is Mussolini but I will vote for him."

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/791774367613091840

Christ was denied 3 times. Rubio says Trump > Christ.

 

[manakel]

I wasn't sure where to post this, so I figured this thread would be my best bet.

And old classmate from high school messaged me on Facebook, and notified me that I was in a Yahoo News video. So, I clicked the link and watched it. The video/article was about how Trump is appealing to voters, and low and behold, there's my picture right in the middle of the video. The thing is - the picture they used of me was from an Obama rally back in 2012. It's used completely out of context, and it looks like I'm transfixed on Trump.

I am furious. What are my options, here? Should I email Yahoo and ask them to take it down? Ask them to put up a disclaimer about what the picture actually is? In no way do I want my image associated with that monster.

 

[Cyanity]

Well yes, that addresses the technical definition of "outlier" but not the colloquial definition.

Technically an outlier could be a result that deviates from the mean with good reason and be worth paying attention to.

Colloquially "outlier" has come to mean something that's SO far off that it should just be discarded...like the LA times thing with two black guys (one of whom likes Trump) out of a 3K sample, or the IBD poll that's laughably republican up until the last week when it's arbitrarily moved to the mean without explanation.

You'll notice that all of those "colloquial" outliers are more than two standard deviations from the mean

 

[StoOgE]

I wasn't sure where to post this, so I figured this thread would be my best bet.

And old classmate from high school messaged me on Facebook, and notified me that I was in a Yahoo News video. So, I clicked the link and watched it. The video/article was about how Trump is appealing to voters, and low and behold, there's my picture right in the middle of the video. The thing is - the picture they used of me was from an Obama rally back in 2012. It's used completely out of context, and it looks like I'm transfixed on Trump.

I am furious. What are my options, here? Should I email Yahoo and ask them to take it down? Ask them to put up a disclaimer about what the picture actually is? In no way do I want my image associated with that monster.

You should be able to get a retraction for that.

 

[Cyanity]

I wasn't sure where to post this, so I figured this thread would be my best bet.

And old classmate from high school messaged me on Facebook, and notified me that I was in a Yahoo News video. So, I clicked the link and watched it. The video/article was about how Trump is appealing to voters, and low and behold, there's my picture right in the middle of the video. The thing is - the picture they used of me was from an Obama rally back in 2012. It's used completely out of context, and it looks like I'm transfixed on Trump.

I am furious. What are my options, here? Should I email Yahoo and ask them to take it down? Ask them to put up a disclaimer about what the picture actually is? In no way do I want my image associated with that monster.

This should be pretty easy to get retracted. Just contact them and see how it goes.

 

[rjinaz]

Dude does not own any of the voting machines r/donald and other donald trump supporting places are talking about. Any problems with the voting machines are mostly caused by human error.

That and the voting machines he has a loose connection to aren't even being used this election. I think I read that on snopes. Always a good place to go to if you want more info on a conspiracy.That's to the person who asked.

 

[Snake]

I'm going to save this one for November 9th. It's going to be delicious to read, over and over and over...

By all means, gloat away if Democrats significantly outperform their current aggregate polling. Nobody would be happier to see that than me.

But until then I'll stick with what we know and keep overly exuberant assumptions to a minimum.

 

[Tamanon]

Durham early voting seemed pretty busy today. My wife voted for her first time since becoming a citizen. Two for the Hilldawg!

 

[wumster3000]

Why is she doing so bad with college educated in the South?

Dude, the south is the south. Your pastor tells you who to vote for. Your parents say that they will disown you if you vote Dem. The list goes on and on. I've heard and seen it all. I will say that ATL is getting to be more progressive.

Source: I was born and raised GA.

 

[B-Dubs]

I wasn't sure where to post this, so I figured this thread would be my best bet.

And old classmate from high school messaged me on Facebook, and notified me that I was in a Yahoo News video. So, I clicked the link and watched it. The video/article was about how Trump is appealing to voters, and low and behold, there's my picture right in the middle of the video. The thing is - the picture they used of me was from an Obama rally back in 2012. It's used completely out of context, and it looks like I'm transfixed on Trump.

I am furious. What are my options, here? Should I email Yahoo and ask them to take it down? Ask them to put up a disclaimer about what the picture actually is? In no way do I want my image associated with that monster.

Call the editor and ask for a retraction.

 

[Basileus777]

Mason Dixon poll of Missouri;

Trump 47
Clinton 42

Blunt 47
Kander 46

 

[witness]

And recommendations on election documentaries on YouTube, amazon, or Netflix?

 

[Oblivion]

Wait, how would Puerto Ricans flooding into Florida even be eligible to vote in that state? Don't you have to maintain residency for a good bit of time before you can do that?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Mason Dixon poll of Missouri;

Trump 47
Clinton 42

Blunt 47
Kander 46

That's okay.

 

[spunodi]

Mason Dixon poll of Missouri;

Trump 47
Clinton 42

Blunt 47
Kander 46

 

[zelas]

absurdly reactive model, gonna be in the high 80s again overnight, everyone else is over 90%

In our polls-only forecast, Trump has narrowed Clinton’s lead in the popular vote to roughly 6 percentage points from 7 points a week ago, and his chances of winning have ticked up to 17 percent from 13 percent.

...

And we’re certainly a week or two removed from the period when every poll brought good news for Clinton: Plenty of polls now show negative trend lines for her (in addition to others that show a positive trend). But the race hasn’t fundamentally changed all that much, and Clinton remains in a strong position.

Today's update saying "meh" is not an absurd overreaction.

 

[Gruco]

By all means, gloat away if Democrats significantly outperform their current aggregate polling. Nobody would be happier to see that than me.

But until then I'll stick with what we know and keep overly exuberant assumptions to a minimum.

If Hillary is polling in the 5-8 range as you say, what is overly exuberant about the final margin being larger? We know this happened for Obama, why, and that the same factors are just as if not more true in 2016.

 

[Grexeno]

Mason Dixon poll of Missouri;

Trump 47
Clinton 42

Blunt 47
Kander 46

C'MON KANDER YOU BEAUTIFUL BASTARD

 

[Voysa Reezun]

Mason-Dixon has an R lean, right?

 

[Cyanity]

Wait, how would Puerto Ricans flooding into Florida even be eligible to vote in that state? Don't you have to maintain residency for a good bit of time before you can do that?

Puerto Rico is a territory of the US, ergo your Puerto Rican ID gives you the same voting power that a citizen from the mainland has. If you move to a US state, then you can vote.

 

[Retromelon]

After the election can bernie please be senate majority leader

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

After the election can bernie please be senate majority leader

Would you accept setting the federal budget?

 

[Knuckle Sandwich]

After the election can bernie please be senate majority leader

No.

Can Elizabeth Warren?

 

[Atlagev]

After the election can bernie please be senate majority leader

You'll take Schumer and you'll like him.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Dude, the south is the south. Your pastor tells you who to vote for. Your parents say that they will disown you if you vote Dem. The list goes on and on. I've heard and seen it all. I will say that ATL is getting to be more progressive.

Source: I was born and raised GA.

Georgia at least seems to be on a similar trajectory as North Carolina, just a few cycles behind.

I've mentioned this before but I kind of want to write a book on the trends in the South and how that will impact elections going forward. The point where black Democrats in the South are able to win state elections will turn this country on its head.

 

[Oblivion]

Mason Dixon poll of Missouri;

Trump 47
Clinton 42

Blunt 47
Kander 46

I'd be more than fine with Hillary losing if we got Kander instead.

Puerto Rico is a territory of the US, ergo your Puerto Rican ID gives you the same voting power that a citizen from the mainland has. If you move to a US state, then you can vote.

I know they're citizens and they can vote. What I mean is, don't you have a waiting period when you move to a new state?

 

[Manmademan]

Wait, how would Puerto Ricans flooding into Florida even be eligible to vote in that state? Don't you have to maintain residency for a good bit of time before you can do that?

It's a US territory. They're treated just as if they moved from another state.

Only, the state they are moving from didn't allow them to vote in presidential elections. And now they can.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

I do want to say though that I think Silver deserves a lot of credit. He popularized out of sample demographic regressions and poll averaging and brought a lot of rigor to election prognostication which wasn't there before. It's hard to overstate how astonishingly shitty election analysis was in 2004. Silver upped everyone's game. His biggest problem is that he's no longer competing in the same pundit environment as 2008. That, and his fickle contrarian streak has been hurting him. His competitors are just much better than him at this point, and Silver hasn't been able to keep up.

Nate Silver is the Nintendo of pollsters.

 

[Kusagari]

After the election can bernie please be senate majority leader

I'll take anyone that isn't Menendez, Schumer or Manchin.

 

[whyamihere]

Mason Dixon poll of Missouri;

Trump 47
Clinton 42

Blunt 47
Kander 46

C'mon Kander.

Does Mason-Dixon have a particular lean? I can't remember.

 

[Knuckle Sandwich]

You'll take Schumer and you'll like him.

Blargh.

 

[MHWilliams]

After an hour and a half, I finally finished placing my vote at an early voting poll center. That's a weight off my mind.

Now to diablos for two weeks.

 

[whyamihere]

After an hour and a half, I finally finished placing my vote at an early voting poll center. That's a weight off my mind.

Now to diablos for two weeks.

week and a half.

I can't do two weeks.

 

[Manmademan]

After an hour and a half, I finally finished placing my vote at an early voting poll center. That's a weight off my mind.

Now to diablos for two weeks.

I just realized my ten year GAF anniversary is two days before election day.

I know you guys were going to give me a tag to celebrate...but all I want is the house.

Make it happen

 

[BobTheFork]

After an hour and a half, I finally finished placing my vote at an early voting poll center. That's a weight off my mind.

Now to diablos for two weeks.

I filled out mine ballot watching the Cubs game last night. Mailed it this morning. So nice to be able to do that.

 

[Cyanity]

I know they're citizens and they can vote. What I mean is, don't you have a waiting period when you move to a new state?

From the mouth of the state itself:

Spoiler

There's no waiting period

 

[eBay Huckster]

Today's update saying "meh" is not an absurd overreaction.

relative to literally everyone else that has polling aggregation as part of their model, it is absurdly overreactive

the cybit defense is better: that it's more reactive by design and we don't actually know which approach is gonna be right

 

[Makai]

Vic Berger destroyed

 

[shinra-bansho]

After the election can bernie please be senate majority leader

Why not American hero Rand Paul.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

the dudes who took over the Oregon federal facility got off because the jury.

look for them to do it again.

I hate to be that guy but white people with guns get away with a lot

 

[Cyanity]

the dudes who took over the Oregon federal facility got off because the jury.

look for them to do it again.

This fucking country. If that was a group of black people we wouldn't even be discussing this right now because they'd be DEAD.

 

[Retromelon]

Why not American hero Rand Paul.

Another great suggestion

 

[Snake]

If Hillary is polling in the 5-8 range as you say, what is overly exuberant about the final margin being larger? We know this happened for Obama, why, and that the same factors are just as if not more true in 2016.

Obama overperformed in 2012 but underperformed slightly in 2008. It certainly "feels right" to think that Hillary will do better due to superior funding advantage and a more robust GOTV operation, but presidential elections are complicated and I think it's absolutely wrong to assume that HRC will get a guaranteed +3 bonus over her polling on Nov. 8.

 

[Oblivion]

From the mouth of the state itself:

Spoiler

There's no waiting period

Ooh, interesting. Well shit, hopefully these guys save the day.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

C'mon Kander.

Does Mason-Dixon have a particular lean? I can't remember.

Nature Boy posted a poll of theirs earlier that had Trump ahead in Florida and called them a poor pollster. Probably R lean.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Hillary Clinton is guaranteed a +4.2069% boost over her polling on November 8th because memes have overtaken Jesus as this country's largest driving force

 

[Oblivion]

the dudes who took over the Oregon federal facility got off because the jury.

look for them to do it again.

I hate to be that guy but white people with guns get away with a lot

GODDAMN IT.

I thought the FBI (and reality) had an ironclad case?

 

[Manmademan]

Obama overperformed in 2012 but underperformed slightly in 2008. It certainly "feels right" to think that Hillary will do better due to superior funding advantage and a more robust GOTV operation, but presidential elections are complicated and I think it's absolutely wrong to assume that HRC will get a guaranteed +3 bonus over her polling on Nov. 8.

Obama over performed in 2012 because conventional wisdom said minorities wouldn't turn out at the same level they did in 2008, and pollsters built that assumption into their models.

They were wrong of course, thanks largely to Obama's ridiculous GOTV machine.

Look back at articles about the 2016 race and you'll see many analysts saying the same thing. "Clinton won't be able to capture minorities like Obama did". And this assumption is built into a lot of very strange models that have minority turnout lower than 2012...because Clinton is an old white lady so of course they'll stay home.

Those models that do this are going to be laughably, hilariously wrong on election day.

 

[DrForester]

Sure it's old, but...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/791763393099206657

 

[Holmes]

C'mon Kander.

Does Mason-Dixon have a particular lean? I can't remember.

They stopped polling Florida in 2012 a week and a bit before election day because they had Romney way ahead.