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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding

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Pandy

Member
sometime Corbyn ally* Helen Goodman MP tells ITV news that election is not about a change of goverment

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/854996348206239745

*currently estranged admittedly

She's not wrong.
It was madness to supinely agree to a timetable of the Tories choosing, and all Labour can really hope for is to limit the damage.

The only real point of interest for me in this election is the Lib Dems, and whether they can really turn their recent pro-EU rhetoric into votes/seats.
 

Hazzuh

Member
lol

C91qV8SXcAAWBcy.jpg
C91qZfPWsAE0FQg.jpg

Look at the timestamps
 
She got like 15% and finished third. Take the hint.

completely different context in 2015 when the members decided that Labour needed to lurch left to regain public support. That idea has now been firmly ground into the dirt and if the 2015 members were voting tomorrow, they would undoubtedly looking for someone exactly like Cooper. However, the membership is now not the same as it was in 2015 and any Corbynite candidate that gets into the race will probably win, due to the influx of Corbyn supporters, some of them for harder-left parties.

The real game is getting on the shortlist. Candidates need 15% of the PLP to nominate them in order to stand and any Corbynite would be unlikely to get those numbers. If Corbyn can hang on until September though, he (or rather McDonnell) will use his control of NEC to change the requirement to 5%. If that happens, the Corbyn faction (low on support in the PLP, high on support in the membership) will be able to hand pick a successor, assuming that the new members continue to support them post election apocalypse and that Jezza can really hold on to power after being humiliated in the polls.
 
Joe Anderson, who on election night last year proclaimed that he can "smell you Liberals" and shouted at a candidate for looking at him, is seeking to replace Rotherham as MP for Walton.

He will be going up against a friend of mine should he get the nom.

THAT is going to be a fun contest. Anderson's corrupt and looks like a Dr Who villain.
 
Fuck, moved recently from a Tory safe seat to...A Tory safe seat. LD were second in 2005/10 but dived in 2015 with Labour/UKIP getting their votes (UKIP took most).

Fucking hell, no idea who to vote for. Will be pointless in the end and discarded anyway. Fuck fptp.
 

*Splinter

Member
The real game is getting on the shortlist. Candidates need 15% of the PLP to nominate them in order to stand and any Corbynite would be unlikely to get those numbers. If Corbyn can hang on until September though, he (or rather McDonnell) will use his control of NEC to change the requirement to 5%. If that happens, the Corbyn faction (low on support in the PLP, high on support in the membership) will be able to hand pick a successor, assuming that the new members continue to support them post election apocalypse and that Jezza can really hold on to power after being humiliated in the polls.
Sounds like this early election could give Labour a chance to dig themselves out of this whole? (since it makes it harder for Corbyn to hang on until Septamber and do the above)
 

Hazzuh

Member
Douglas Carswell won't be standing in the election! Big news.

I have never felt more proud and honoured than when representing my Essex constituents in the House of Commons.

Over the past twelve years I have had great fun working with, and getting to know, many wonderful local people. Together, we ran all sorts of local campaigns, from safeguarding local services to getting a new seafront. Local has always come first.

As I promised in my maiden speech, I have done everything possible to ensure we got, and won, a referendum to leave the European Union - even changing parties and triggering a by election to help nudge things along. Last summer, we won that referendum. Britain is going to become a sovereign country again.

I have decided that I will not now be seeking re-election. I intend to vote Conservative ‪on June 8th and will be offering my full support to whoever the Clacton Constituency Conservatives select as their candidate.

I guess the Tories said they didn't want him.
 
A utopia? Jobs, housing, and a working Public Health Service. I know you're British but you can try to dream a little bigger.
I'm Gen X mate . I've heard it all before,from all parties,many different leaders and it's usually lies/unachievable. One of the main reasons I voted for Blair was his realistic and fairly honest approach. He didn't promise the earth and under deliver and I enjoyed a fairly prosperous decade.
Unfortunately Labour didn't pug anything away for a rainy day. Brown also implemented policy that was unhelpful and costly to self employed workers.
Like every government they eventually fucked me enough to lose my vote and push me to conservative.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
completely different context in 2015 when the members decided that Labour needed to lurch left to regain public support. That idea has now been firmly ground into the dirt and if the 2015 members were voting tomorrow, they would undoubtedly looking for someone exactly like Cooper. However, the membership is now not the same as it was in 2015 and any Corbynite candidate that gets into the race will probably win, due to the influx of Corbyn supporters, some of them for harder-left parties.

The real game is getting on the shortlist. Candidates need 15% of the PLP to nominate them in order to stand and any Corbynite would be unlikely to get those numbers. If Corbyn can hang on until September though, he (or rather McDonnell) will use his control of NEC to change the requirement to 5%. If that happens, the Corbyn faction (low on support in the PLP, high on support in the membership) will be able to hand pick a successor, assuming that the new members continue to support them post election apocalypse and that Jezza can really hold on to power after being humiliated in the polls.

I don't think that's quite the right assessment. The membership didn't decide to 'lurch left' so much as it lashed out and cast a protest vote against the vacuity and emptiness of Burnham and Cooper. Cooper's bid for the leadership was entirely policy free until the last two weeks of the process, for example. The Labour membership is (or was, pre-expansion) quite willing to countenance candidates to the right of the party - but only if they have the competence and policy base to be convincing. I think the overwhelming perception of the Labour Party on seeing Burnham and Cooper was: 'with Blair, we went to the centre, but we could win. With these chumps? We'd move to the centre and still lose. What's the point?' and just picked Corbyn as a kind of fuck you to the bland, anodyne candidates that came forward.

Cooper still has... exactly that same problem. She's popular within the PLP by all accounts, but amongst the membership she's still seen as bland and lacklustre. There's a small clique of about 24% of the membership by the last internal Labour poll that rate her highly, and that's not enough to be winning anything.

I don't think she has any serious chance. The next Labour leader will be, at the very most, from somewhere on the soft left. The most 'right' you're going to go is probably someone like Keir Starmer, who isn't even that 'right' by Labour standards (definitely on the soft-left of the party), but has won grudging respect from the Corbynistas by being willing to slum it out in the cabinet. Loyalty goes a long way when convincing people to change their minds - respecting their decision even if you disagree with it goes a lot further than open hostility.

The real race is going to be decided by who can consolidate that soft-left support without alienating the Corbynites. The candidates in good position to do that are Keir Starmer, Lisa Nandy, maaaybe Clive Lewis (if he doesn't lose his seat, and if he manages to be slightly more conciliatory), and maybe Angela Rayner as a dark horse candidate.

I think Lisa would win if she goes for it. I mean, I wouldn't give even odds or anything, but she's my favourite.
 
Sounds like this early election could give Labour a chance to dig themselves out of this whole? (since it makes it harder for Corbyn to hang on until Septamber and do the above)

Another dimension is that most of the pro-Corbyn types are in safe seats so...if there is a wipe out, in some ways it suits them, paradoxically. It'll be harder to force Corbyn out and harder to keep the leadership out of their clutches if he does go. If Corbyn's successor is McDonnell, the party is dead. Rebecca Long-Bailey may go over better but she's quite young.
 
I don't think that's quite the right assessment. The membership didn't decide to 'lurch left' so much as it lashed out and cast a protest vote against the vacuity and emptiness of Burnham and Cooper. Cooper's bid for the leadership was entirely policy free until the last two weeks of the process, for example. The Labour membership is (or was, pre-expansion) quite willing to countenance candidates to the right of the party - but only if they have the competence and policy base to be convincing. I think the overwhelming perception of the Labour Party on seeing Burnham and Cooper was: 'with Blair, we went to the centre, but we could win. With these chumps? We'd move to the centre and still lose. What's the point?' and just picked Corbyn as a kind of fuck you to the bland, anodyne candidates that came forward.

Cooper still has... exactly that same problem. She's popular within the PLP by all accounts, but amongst the membership she's still seen as bland and lacklustre. There's a small clique of about 24% of the membership by the last internal Labour poll that rate her highly, and that's not enough to be winning anything.

I don't think she has any serious chance. The next Labour leader will be, at the very most, from somewhere on the soft left. The most 'right' you're going to go is probably someone like Keir Starmer, who isn't even that 'right' by Labour standards (definitely on the soft-left of the party), but has won grudging respect from the Corbynistas by being willing to slum it out in the cabinet. Loyalty goes a long way when convincing people to change their minds - respecting their decision even if you disagree with it goes a lot further than open hostility.

The real race is going to be decided by who can consolidate that soft-left support without alienating the Corbynites. The candidates in good position to do that are Keir Starmer, Lisa Nandy, maaaybe Clive Lewis (if he doesn't lose his seat, and if he manages to be slightly more conciliatory), and maybe Angela Rayner as a dark horse candidate.

I think Lisa would win if she goes for it. I mean, I wouldn't give even odds or anything, but she's my favourite.

Well, to be fair - it's subjective. There was a lot of chat at the time about the rejection of centrist/blairist model by the electorate and the need for a change. You're right in saying that Burnham and Cooper were considered somewhat lacklustre but part of that is contextual, they weren't saying anything new and not much that Ed wouldn't have said before them. Back then, that wasn't what people wanted to hear, now - it would be a blessed relief (to the original members anyway). Only 37% of the pre 2015 members voted for Corbyn in 2016 and that was for Smith, who by anyone's reckoning is a lower calibre candidate than Copper.

That said, I respect your opinion even if I don't agree with it.
 
Corbyn won't step down if he loses, though. He is not in power to win elections, he is in power to pull turn Labour into a socialist movement - the 1970s Labour Party with a Twitter account and breakfast croissants.

He'll presumably step down when the project is secured.

Only a destructive defeat - Labour being pushed into third place - would get him to resign. Anything else would be regarded as constructive. He does not need or want the centre left in the party.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Another dimension is that most of the pro-Corbyn types are in safe seats so...if there is a wipe out, in some ways it suits them, paradoxically. It'll be harder to force Corbyn out and harder to keep the leadership out of their clutches if he does go. If Corbyn's successor is McDonnell, the party is dead. Rebecca Long-Bailey may go over better but she's quite young.

This is also not true. The distribution of pro-/anti-Corbyn MPs has no correlation with the marginality of the seats. Can't link but if you search the guardian for "An election now would be crushing for Labour" you should see an article breaking down marginality by core group status.
 
I mean, it is a fairly standard Conservative tactic at this point: you leak rumours that you're planning on doing something unhelpful, evil, or unpopular, then you do something that's still one of those three but not as bad and everyone goes "oh, that's not so bad" and forget about it.

Plus I think she might be plotting to turn around and do a head-to-head with Corbyn. She must have people in the party telling her it's a sure-fire win.

I guess the issue for her is whether it will actually be a sure fire win. I don't doubt the election will be Tory won but if she goes head-to-head in a debate with Corbyn and he (surprisingly) comes out looking pretty good, she won't take that well.

She is a very clear sore loser, I don't think she makes herself look good under pressure
 

theaface

Member
Fuck, moved recently from a Tory safe seat to...A Tory safe seat. LD were second in 2005/10 but dived in 2015 with Labour/UKIP getting their votes (UKIP took most).

Fucking hell, no idea who to vote for. Will be pointless in the end and discarded anyway. Fuck fptp.

Why the drama? Given your anti-EU post history you should be delighted that you'll get the hard Brexit you want. You can pretend that this election will be about a broad spectrum of policies and more than just a single issue (Brexit) but your government won't.
 
I guess the issue for her is whether it will actually be a sure fire win. I don't doubt the election will be Tory won but if she goes head-to-head in a debate with Corbyn and he (surprisingly) comes out looking pretty good, she won't take that well.

She is a very clear sore loser, I don't think she makes herself look good under pressure
As someone put it last time with Miliband, if Corbyn doesn't shit himself on stage it'll be a partial success and look decent compared to expectations.

Not that it'd change much with the insane swing we have now.
 
Thought this was an interesting article on tactical voting;

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/apr/20/tactical-voting-to-beat-the-tories-does-the-maths-equal-a-coalition

The gist is that even a perfectly organised tactical voting effort on the left would only be enough to stop some of the bleeding but would be unlikely to come close to producing a victory.

In the sort of situation the Labour party is in at the moment I could see it being a good idea for the left in general, but it'd probably weaken them overall in future elections so I'm not sure it'd ever really be in their interest.
 

Garjon

Member
Joe Anderson, who on election night last year proclaimed that he can "smell you Liberals" and shouted at a candidate for looking at him, is seeking to replace Rotherham as MP for Walton.

He will be going up against a friend of mine should he get the nom.

THAT is going to be a fun contest. Anderson's corrupt and looks like a Dr Who villain.

Oh dear fucking Christ no. Joe Anderson is hated in this city. He's responsible for tearing down loved bars and parks to build still vacant overpriced student flats (and if he gets his way, he's going to tear down Camp and Furnace as well) in very shady deals. I sincerely hope he doesn't get the nomination.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Well, to be fair - it's subjective. There was a lot of chat at the time about the rejection of centrist/blairist model by the electorate and the need for a change. You're right in saying that Burnham and Cooper were considered somewhat lacklustre but part of that is contextual, they weren't saying anything new and not much that Ed wouldn't have said before them. Back then, that wasn't what people wanted to hear, now - it would be a blessed relief (to the original members anyway). Only 37% of the pre 2015 members voted for Corbyn in 2016 and that was for Smith, who by anyone's reckoning is a lower calibre candidate than Copper.

That said, I respect your opinion even if I don't agree with it.

I'm not actually enormously convinced Cooper is a stronger candidate than Smith. For all his failings, he was not at all afraid to put ideas forward. But I think seeing Corbyn's election as a desire for 'the left' or a rejection of the Blairite model is... not quite right. Ed Miliband was not all Blairite - you don't need to reject something the party already moved on from. If anything, the problem is that Cooper and Burnham didn't commit to "Ed-ism". Remember, Burnham was leading the internal party polling until Harriet Harman's decision to reject "Ed-ism" and abstain on the Conservative welfare bill. That was just too much. Members wanted more "Ed-ism", not less - nobody wants a party that abstains weakly and limply!

I've spent a lot of time with Momentum members - they're big in my constituency - and most of them are not Trots or Marxists or whatever (different at the top, but I want to talk about the membership specifically here). The best characterisation of them is probably a young woman in her 20s who voted Lib Dem or Green in the past and believes in social justice and being nice to people. Seizing the means of production or whatever is meaningless to them. Not their game. They want a preacher man with a bit of fire in their belly, not a technocrat. I don't think the exact ideology of the preacher man is that important, but they wanted someone to rally the standard.

Bluntly speaking, Cooper didn't kill her chances by being 'too rightwing', she did it by being too interminably boring and uninspiring. I'm reminded of Terry Pratchett's Omnian religion, if you've ever read Carpe Jugulum (rather than Small Gods). If you've not got the passion, you've got nothing.
 

tomtom94

Member
Thought this was an interesting article on tactical voting;

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/apr/20/tactical-voting-to-beat-the-tories-does-the-maths-equal-a-coalition

The gist is that even a perfectly organised tactical voting effort on the left would only be enough to stop some of the bleeding but would be unlikely to come close to producing a victory.

In the sort of situation the Labour party is in at the moment I could see it being a good idea for the left in general, but it'd probably weaken them overall in future elections so I'm not sure it'd ever really be in their interest.

The only way a "coalition of the left" would be viable is if Labour, the Lib Dems, and the Greens basically sat down and divvied up the ideological ground, because Labour and the Lib Dems are such a broad swathe of people they're tripping over each other.
 

Maledict

Member
Crab is right, people want passion. I think people have forgotten how fucking amazing Blair was in the run up to 97 - he had passion, charisma, and argued loud and hard on his ideas. Corbyn has some ideas which are popular, but he's utterly unable to sell them like Blair could.

(May doesn't need passion because she's running as the only adult in the room, and Tim just needs airtime and to come across as less of a drip).
 
This is also not true. The distribution of pro-/anti-Corbyn MPs has no correlation with the marginality of the seats. Can't link but if you search the guardian for "An election now would be crushing for Labour" you should see an article breaking down marginality by core group status.

This is a list I have compiled of key Corbyn allies and their ranking by "safety"

ZEWAOTc.png


There are 229 Labour MPs, so this is 8.2% of the party.

Assuming Labour drop to say 170 seats, they all keep their jobs and become 11.2% of the party. If it drops to 150, there are two kills and they become 11.3%. Drop to 140 and they are 12%. When you only need 15% to get on the list, a group of loyalists that increases in size by 3-4% is significant.

Therefore I do not agree and stand by my original argument. (although I may have made some errors)

The issue with the internal figures used by the guardian that you alluded to is that it assumes a much more marginal defeat, the bigger the defeat, the larger the loyalists become as a percentage of the party.

Again, I think Cooper's problems were contextual.
 
I have a suspicion that Huw_Dawson might

Well I mean...

Yeah.

If you lived in Liverpool last year you might have been able to vote for me as a Lib Dem.

Oh dear fucking Christ no. Joe Anderson is hated in this city. He's responsible for tearing down loved bars and parks to build still vacant overpriced student flats (and if he gets his way, he's going to tear down Camp and Furnace as well) in very shady deals. I sincerely hope he doesn't get the nomination.

Well if you live in Walton, you'll have an excellent alternative candidate in the Lib Dem one.
 
Oh dear fucking Christ no. Joe Anderson is hated in this city. He's responsible for tearing down loved bars and parks to build still vacant overpriced student flats (and if he gets his way, he's going to tear down Camp and Furnace as well) in very shady deals. I sincerely hope he doesn't get the nomination.

Joe and his mates are already tearing the shit out of Edge Lane for yet another retail park. Not one person up for election in Liverpool appeals to me. And i have a genuine dislike for Luciana Burger. Think i will get involved at the grass roots level and see if i can one day run.
 
Joe and his mates are already tearing the shit out of Edge Lane for yet another retail park. Not one person up for election in Liverpool appeals to me. And i have a genuine dislike for Luciana Burger. Think i will get involved at the grass roots level and see if i can one day run.

You live near the Edge Lane development?!

You ACTUALLY could have voted for me. I stood in Old Swan last year.

Although in fairness that Edge Lane area was all old warehouses and a dead retail park anyway, so redeveloping it is probably a good thing...
 

Hazzuh

Member
Crab is dead on saying Corbyn becoming leader isn't just a left/right thing. Just look at how poorly other left-wing candidates like McDonnell and Abbott have done in other internal Labour party elections. At the same time Corbyn was getting nearly 60% of the vote for leader, Abbott could only get 17% to be the London mayoral candidate.
 
Crab is dead on saying Corbyn becoming leader isn't just a left/right thing. Just look at how poorly other left-wing candidates like McDonnell and Abbott have done in other internal Labour party elections. At the same time Corbyn was getting nearly 60% of the vote for leader, Abbott could only get 17% to be the London mayoral candidate.

That's because Abbot is an unmitigated joke who everyone hates, that's a bogus comparison, McDonnell was standing in an entirely different context. Jeremy was the man for the moment, partly because of who he is but mostly because of who he isn't, which is anyone connected to Miliband, Brown, Blair, New Labour or centrist politics.
 

Uzzy

Member
Crab is right, people want passion. I think people have forgotten how fucking amazing Blair was in the run up to 97 - he had passion, charisma, and argued loud and hard on his ideas. Corbyn has some ideas which are popular, but he's utterly unable to sell them like Blair could.

(May doesn't need passion because she's running as the only adult in the room, and Tim just needs airtime and to come across as less of a drip).

Corbyn showed some passion earlier today. If he keeps that up, shows some real fire and does well during the campaign, then those polling figures might just improve.
 
Corbyn showed some passion earlier today. If he keeps that up, shows some real fire and does well during the campaign, then those polling figures might just improve.
I think he definitely needs to improve his media operation - and bring that fire to TV interviews, rather than just moan about every question. It's not like Trump, they won't just run his rallies regardless of his insults of the press, those other approaches to showing his passion matter more.
 
You live near the Edge Lane development?!

You ACTUALLY could have voted for me. I stood in Old Swan last year.

Although in fairness that Edge Lane area was all old warehouses and a dead retail park anyway, so redeveloping it is probably a good thing...

Don't get wrong, yes the area needs investment but it has the feel of insider dealing for personal profit. Also and don't take this the wrong way, but i see voting for MP's like they are a person with an independent opinion as wrong. MP's should only exist to get their party into power. They should only ever reflect their constituents views. E.g. Burger voting to bomb Syria against her party leaders views. I was forced to vote for her as she was the labour MP, i voted for labour not for her. She betrayed my vote. I will not vote for labour via her again.
 

StayDead

Member
Fuck, moved recently from a Tory safe seat to...A Tory safe seat. LD were second in 2005/10 but dived in 2015 with Labour/UKIP getting their votes (UKIP took most).

Fucking hell, no idea who to vote for. Will be pointless in the end and discarded anyway. Fuck fptp.

It's not pointless.

If enough people think like that it will be. Get out and vote. Get people you know to vote. If everyone who votes instead of "meh there's no point tories are going to win anyway" then we might be able to change something!
 
Don't get wrong, yes the area needs investment but it has the feel of insider dealing for personal profit. Also and don't take this the wrong way, but i see voting for MP's like they are a person with an independent opinion as wrong. MP's should only exist to get their party into power. They should only ever reflect their constituents views. E.g. Burger voting to bomb Syria against her party leaders views. I was forced to vote for her as she was the labour MP, i voted for labour not for her. She betrayed my vote. I will not vote for labour via her again.

Yeah, you should represent the views of your constituents. A couple of our MPs abstained on the A50 vote because they didn't want to go against the Leave votes in their own constituencies.
 

tomtom94

Member
Corbyn showed some passion earlier today. If he keeps that up, shows some real fire and does well during the campaign, then those polling figures might just improve.

People forget that Corbyn actually closed the gap to the Tories (though that was mainly because Cameron and Osborne were making an absolute mess of things) around the time of the 2016 budget. Then came the whole "leaking PMQs" business and Labour's numbers never recovered.

Labour have a good campaigning machine most of the time, they've just been useless in Parliament. You can't make up two to five years' worth of damage in a month and a half. Hell, Miliband struggled to make it up with a year's preparation.
 

danowat

Banned
Listening to the radio at lunchtime, and the mental gymnastics going on from people explaining how they are going to vote is mind boggling.

As far as I could make out, no one is going to vote for the party they want in power, they'll either be voting for the party that supports their Brexit ideals, or voting for the party who is directly opposing the party who's Brexit ideals you don't adhere too.

It's going to be a crazy result.
 
Yep. They probably won't win here, but at least I can make peace with myself that I didn't vote for anyone that supports the madness we're about to face.

The lib dems are partially to blame for this mess for becoming tory bitches with Clegg's 15 minutes of shame that was the coalition.
 
The lib dems are partially to blame for this mess for becoming tory bitches with Clegg's 15 minutes of shame that was the coalition.

I don't recall us having a Brexit referendum on our 2015 manifesto.

Indeed I recall we warned people about how heartless the Tories were and how clueless Labour were.

The fact that few listened to us is definitely Clegg's fault though, and the wider party's.
 

Jackpot

Banned
anyone voting lib dem?

honest question

I will.

They're second in my area but Tories have a comfortable lead.

The lib dems are partially to blame for this mess for becoming tory bitches with Clegg's 15 minutes of shame that was the coalition.

I have no problem with the principle of coalition. The LDs could either sit on the sidelines and play at being politicians or they could actually be part of the government and do some good. Just a shame they got rings ran round them by the Tories, taking the blame for bad policies and zero credit for the good ones.
 

Maledict

Member
The lib dems are partially to blame for this mess for becoming tory bitches with Clegg's 15 minutes of shame that was the coalition.

...

Okay, I really fail to see that logic.

The lib dems went into government with the tories, softened a huge amount of their policies and passed many key things the tories wouldn't touch on their own (raising the tax threshold, gay marriage etc). They then get utterly wiped out for it. Cameron wins an unexpected majority, and then delivers on his stupid manifesto promise. At the same time the Labour Party goes fucking insane and elects a sentient cardigan from 1974 as its leader. End result - Brexit, and a thousand years of darkness.

How are the lib dems responsible for May or Brexit? People voted for these things! The lib dems opposed them!
 
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