If they vote the Tories in they'll get a prize, the shit sandwich but if they eat it, they'll get shit pudding etc. I don't know what they are thinking, might as well go all in and see what happens I guess, the apparent strong leader aura around May that people seem to see. Baffling.
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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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If they vote the Tories in they'll get a prize, the shit sandwich but if they eat it, they'll get shit pudding etc. I don't know what they are thinking, might as well go all in and see what happens I guess, the apparent strong leader aura around May that people seem to see. Baffling.
PJV3
Member
The selfish stuff is carrying on when the parliamentary party basically calls you unfit to lead them. It was over then, but because the maths couldn't drag up a replacement he sticks around killing the party.
I actually feel a little sick inside thinking about the man, I can't believe I hoped he would help kick off a Labour revival, he's on a different fucking planet.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I'm being told private polling shows Zac Goldsmith will retake his seat. Said acquaintance is very smug and taking much pleasure in my misery, the bastard. 
PJV3
Member
I'm being told private polling shows Zac Goldsmith will retake his seat. Said acquaintance is very smug and taking much pleasure in my misery, the bastard.
Yeah this is getting depressing, he shouldn't be getting back in after the shit he pulled.
I'm being told private polling shows Zac Goldsmith will retake his seat. Said acquaintance is very smug and taking much pleasure in my misery, the bastard.
What a principled man he is, returning to the party he resigned from barely months ago.
He is unelectable and just being a waste of opposition. His policy is too pipe dream rather than something clear you can digest, not that the other side is better but if you're the opposition to the Tory mess it should be good and it's not like he just got the job. I hate Tony Blair for Iraq but hearing him speak about Brexit etc. is night and day. would destroy the Tories without the baggage. Corbyn would happily watch the world burn for his chance at implementing his vision and he doesn't care for the EU either. Waste of time.
I'm being told private polling shows Zac Goldsmith will retake his seat. Said acquaintance is very smug and taking much pleasure in my misery, the bastard.
It wouldn't surprise me - special elections are different to general elections, and there's no way local labour will invest resources into the lib dem candidate like they did last time. Plus I'm guessing a fair amount of conservative remainders have now come home as reality sets in and May continues to be the 'only adult in the room'.9
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
It doesn't surprise me, I guess, I just it incredibly depressing that we've gone from 'Zac Goldsmith, the principled Conservative' to 'tactical racist who quits his party for electoral gain only to rejoin when the toast is buttered on the other side'. There's differences of ideological opinion and there's being a slimy cunt.
Huw_Dawson
Member
It would not be the first time the Lib Dems won a shock victory but lost it at the general, but I seriously doubt Goldsmith wins Richmond Park back.
Only right at the end of the campaign.
My point was to stop being so downbeat in the main.
They won't win as big as you think.
Wasn't it the London Mayor job ?
PJV3
Member
They should be like labour and libdem voters and never let an issue go like Iraq or tuition fees, nothing better than beating yourself up for a decade or two.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
It's not close. In the region of 50-30 Con-LD.
Don't worry too much Phalanx, hopefully the EU will grant us all 'ex-European' citizenship or something and we can just migrate to some place on the mainland with other disillusioned Britains.
I'd also still vote, yeah it probably won't matter, but at least you can say later you voted against it all when this bites Britain in the arse in 10 years.
Roberto Larcos
Member
I'll be really disappointed if Sarah Olney loses her seat, but I won't be surprised. Don't quite understand what the Tories have to gain from letting Goldsmith back in though, for three reasons. Firstly, it shows those who strike out against the party will be allowed back into the fold - this isn't a great precedent if you want to keep your party on-message and avoid negative press. Secondly, they don't really need the seat anyway - they'll hardly be hurting, so is it really worth the potential negative effects of allowing someone who left publicly back in? And thirdly, they don't need Goldsmith to win that seat back - any Conservative Party candidate would have a solid chance of winning that seat.
In my mind at least, it doesn't really make sense.
In my mind at least, it doesn't really make sense.
Huw_Dawson
Member
I repeat, I'd be surprised if we lost RP.
PJV3
Member
It's lowering my hopes for Kingston upon Thames to be honest, plus side is Ed Davey can stay history but it's not much compensation.
I just can't call him selfish for wanting to help people who have been ignored by the government and the previous Labour government.
Hasn't Blair talked about having another referendum? That certainly would not go well for any opposition. I would argue that that alone would make him unelectable in the current climate. He would get destroyed.
It might shock some people, but the vast majority of people want out of the EU now. It is not a 50/50 that many seem to be suggesting. Sure, there are some that want a 'soft' Brexit, but there are very few who want to reverse the decision at this point.
And perhaps the people who Corbyn appeals to are already living in a world that is burning around them?
JonathanEx
Member
I'm being told private polling shows Zac Goldsmith will retake his seat. Said acquaintance is very smug and taking much pleasure in my misery, the bastard.
This is a big shame. I would have hoped for him to lose for a third time, which would be a beautiful moment.
Huw_Dawson
Member
False! Polling puts "Brexit was a mistake" at 44%, the same as "Brexit was the right thing to do".
The issue of "reversing the decision" is layered on top of that, but the actual decision is being made in this campaign, not the referendum.
Not all 44% will want us to revoke article 50 though. I'm a remainer, but I've grieved, accepted the result and want May to deliver quickly so we can finally have some certainty again and move on.
It's disappointing, but I think we're best to be either all in, or all out of the EU. Anything else will be the worst of both worlds and leave us back where we were but with a worse deal.
That said, personally if the LibDems were indeed campaigning to revoke article 50, I'd probably vote for them, but all they want to do keep us in the single market, which is just a terrible version of where we already were, and won't appease either side.
Roberto Larcos
Member
Then what you do is throw your weight behind one of the other candidates. Corbyn clearly holds huge sway with the membership and unions - anyone he chose to endorse would almost certainly win. If he announced that he was stepping down and wanted an open contest, perhaps endorsed someone more popular in the party (but who holds similar views to his own) - Clive Lewis perhaps - then Labour would be in a better position for sure. Corbyn would also have escaped with his personal reputation intact. He could say he gave it his best shot, but it wasn't the right time etc..
If the Labour Party wants free trade and protections for workers, it's in their best interest to push for EU membership - even if unpopular currently. There's a good case for the EU that simply isn't being made by anyone besides the Lib Dems and Greens, and frankly they don't get enough airtime to carry that banner themselves. At the very least, adopting the Lib Dem position of a referendum on the terms is decently popular, and would allow the party to have their cake and eat it. The Lib Dems have laid the groundwork - the policy is clearly popular enough with voters for the Lib Dems to make it a central point of their campaign.
PJV3
Member
I don't call him selfish for that and if the so called sensible wing of the party hadn't acted like wankers he might be doing a bit better.
Still this is where we are sadly.
Calling Brexit a mistake does not mean people do not support the decision.
Here is a pretty in depth look from Yougov:
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/03/29/attitudes-brexit-everything-we-know-so-far/
They have it at 21% for people who want to reverse the decision. 44% of brexiters who still want to go ahead. And 25% of remainers who want the decision to go ahead.
Going against democracy is political suicide.
brain_stew
Member
I'm far from a supporter of the Tories but let's get real here, the modern Conservative party share very little common ground with Trump. They've governed with an agenda to the left of the Democrats on most issues.
If you disagree then use your vote to make your voice heard, otherwise you're doing little bit mumbling in the corner with no one listening.
Parties don't need a parliamentary majority to make a difference. The Liberal Democrats got a long list of manifesto promises enshrined into law on just over 50 seats and the biggest political change of our generation wouldn't have happened without a party with a single Westminster seat.
Got some figures? I haven't seen anything that supports that statement.
There are many Remainers that think the result of the EU ref should be respected, but that does not equate to 'want out of the EU'.
Huw_Dawson
Member
The policy currently is "definitely remain in the single market, and have a referendum on the final deal which allows voters to remain in the EU if they want to."
Considering that we're currently sitting at 9 MPs, the idea of us forming the next government is just that - a nice idea. But the more pro-EU MPs elected, the worse the government's mandate for leaving the single market is.
If we won the election and had a majority of seats... I can only assume we'd keep up the A50 negotiations and deliver a referendum of soft Brexit or no Brexit to the British people. Which would be fine, because we'd have been voted into power on that manifesto pledge - and both options are still far better than us floating alone in the North Sea.
A referendum on the final deal is the best possible option for solving the Brexit issue fairly.
Roberto Larcos
Member
Soft Brexit gives people and workers constitutional protections that aren't inherent in our own constitution. For that alone, I'd be happy with EEA membership (soft Brexit). But then I am an edge case - human rights and workers' rights are my red lines, and I'll be emigrating this summer to ensure that I retain those rights.
There is a sense of democratic appreciation for the Tories from both sides though, for accepting the referendum result and delivering even though it was against their wishes. They could have just found any excuses to not deliver on the result. Which would have meant they also lost trust from both sides.
You're running?
Huw_Dawson
Member
It was against the wishes of the majority of our government at that time.
I understand that fully, but that wasn't part of the statement I called into question.
The same YouGov polling linked shows that 44% think Britain was right to vote for Brexit and 43% think Britain was wrong to vote for Brexit. That's pretty much the 50/50 that Moze was trying to claim is no longer relevant.
I can't help but feel you'd have to be really naive to think that the Conservatives are following along with it out of respect for democracy rather than blatant opportunism, which is, let's be honest, all Theresa May has shown since she got into office. Frankly, I find the notion of respecting a government that goes against what it actually thinks is best totally absurd.
Pretty much this, but I didn't want to confuse the issue by digressing further in my other post.
Is this semantics? It absolutely does become irrelevant when the majority want to go ahead with the decision anyway. The decision is respected and the vast majority want it to go ahead. There is no interest in another referendum. Blair would be unelectable standing for another referendum to reverse the decision.
Roberto Larcos
Member
It goes both ways.
It shows that if Brexit goes unchallenged, the majority will accept that.
It also shows that if Brexit is challenged, there's a significant portion of the population that could quite easily be won over.
Aaron Banks isn't standing in Clacton after all.
Was looking forward to watching him lose on election night..
Was looking forward to watching him lose on election night..
QuicheFontaine
Member
Pretty reliable, yeah. Of course, no individual poll should be taken as a cast iron indication (at these sample sizes I think the margin of error is about 3%) but if you look at a whole bunch of them and they all show a 20+% lead for the Tories then that's probably what they'll end up with on the day.
Oh I'm not downbeat!
I agree with you from my own personal point of view, but the polls tell a different story for a reason. And it's not just because Corbyn.
I don't think that is the case. We will see in June, though. Lib dem support will tell us alot about this. I just cannot imagine there being many people who want another referendum.
Here is a poll from just after the referendum, when anger towards the result was very high:
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/29/little-support-second-referendum/
It was still overwhelmingly in favour of not holding another referendum.
QuicheFontaine
Member
The "referendum on the final deal" policy is nuts in my view. How could a government negotiate with that hanging over them? The EU could purposely offer a crap deal, safe in the knowledge that the crapper the deal, the more chance of the electorate rejecting the offer and the UK staying in the EU by default.
The policy looks good on paper, but then so does fish and chips.
The policy looks good on paper, but then so does fish and chips.
Roberto Larcos
Member
Our system doesn't help the Lib Dems at all, they're not a fantastic metric. It'd be like saying there was no appetite for a referendum in 2015, because UKIP only won a single seat. If Labour had a pro-EU leader - Smith or Umunna - then I genuinely think it would be different.
Semantics, as in you said the wrong thing? Yes.
You made a statement that wasn't supported by the data. If your post didn't say 'the vast majority of people want out of the EU now', but said 'the vast majority of people believe the Brexit process should go ahead', then I'd have had nothing to question.
Except that I think of a 'vast' majority as being around 90/10, so I'd have said a 'significant' majority, but that's completely subjective.
Unlikely.
The only Lib Dem stories I've seen in mainstream media so far are what Farron considers to be 'sinning', and that Alistair Carmichael is standing again. They simply aren't getting the level of policy coverage they need to make any headway in the polls on account of them, good or bad.
doesn't really matter. as long as the media spin a good narrative the public will lap it up. its already out there with things such as "No deal is better than a bad deal" etc.
at this point we should just own brexit and leave completely. the uk public will have to learn first hand that this is a bad decision. if shit hits the fan and the tories start tanking the media will then jump ship and support someone else.
Oh I'm not downbeat!
Ha I suppose it's rich of me to accuse someone of being downbeat with my avatar
Huw_Dawson
Member
One thing to remember about the electorate: they're a tribal bunch.
March:
http://opinium.co.uk/voters-say-not-yet-snap-general-election/
April, after the snap GE announcement:
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2017_guardian_campaign_poll1_april18.pdf
When your party's leader says something, you're more likely to trust it, and back the position.
So as long as the Tories/Labour say "oh we don't want a second referendum", you're going to see lots of people instinctively say "I don't want a second referendum".
This is why polling is bad at the start of campaigns. The public needs to be submerged in policy and the theatrics of the campaign for a few weeks, as that is what will make their minds up.
It's why I'm not too terrified right now. If we get to a week out and the Tories are polling at 50%, then I'd be worried about Richmond Park, or the sanity of the general public.
March:
http://opinium.co.uk/voters-say-not-yet-snap-general-election/
April, after the snap GE announcement:
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2017_guardian_campaign_poll1_april18.pdf
When your party's leader says something, you're more likely to trust it, and back the position.
So as long as the Tories/Labour say "oh we don't want a second referendum", you're going to see lots of people instinctively say "I don't want a second referendum".
This is why polling is bad at the start of campaigns. The public needs to be submerged in policy and the theatrics of the campaign for a few weeks, as that is what will make their minds up.
It's why I'm not too terrified right now. If we get to a week out and the Tories are polling at 50%, then I'd be worried about Richmond Park, or the sanity of the general public.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
I think it was wrong to vote for Brexit. A silly, dreadful, ill-informed decision that will cost us a lot. But I also think that having done that, we must now go through with it.
That's mostly because doing otherwise would make our relationship with the EU even worse than it is now. We'd be replaying the article 50 argument in every General Election for the next 30 years, the EU could not be confident of our continuing support on anything at all. It would poison our politics for a long time.
Best we get it over with.
I guess it is people like me that makes Moze say that stat is no longer relevant.
cjp
Junior Member
Exactly what voting in a system governed by FPTP does then.
4D chess.
The UK knows they are not welcome in the EU, "they are whiny bastards that dont want to integrate in the EU or actively sabotage it." Sooooooo After the political maneuvering from the EU to grant an exit from the exit, the UK will ask their pops to vote on the deal.
If the EU doesnt want the Uk in the EU they will give the UK a very good deal! So that the pop doesnt vote against it!
This is layers upon layers of 4D chess!
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