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Vox: “Bracksies” how Brexit could wind up not actually happening

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Like I've said before, the government finding a way around it to not have to actually invoke it would be the best immediate scenario for the UK. I would also like to note that Spain made 'an offer' for Gibraltar before the market even opened (7 or 8 am that they published it, markets open at 9) or Cameron resigned (9.20 ish), so you can guess how long they've sitting on that one.

The reason the EU is pressuring is because this is the one time they can't be seen as undemocratic, despite that being the only winning option on the table on the UK's end.
It's going to be fun - well, in terms of the game, not the people - to see how this plays out, but honestly I would expect a "Brundo" before throwing out the rulebook.
The real problem is how to sell it.
I totally disagree. The UK is getting hurt by uncertainty due to this indecisiveness.

I do not understand how blind people are if they say its good to wait a couple of month and then start with negotiations.


Who will knvest kn UK if its unclear if Scottland will be there in a few years time, what tarrifs will or will not apply, will UK retain gheir bankkng license passport etc.
 

jonno394

Member
I honestly think we will go the General Election route with the campaigns based on "we will stick to the referendum results" or not. How you sell this to the EU and the markets though is another thing, will the former even entertain the notion?

I wonder if UKIP will be the only ones to campaign with the brexit results. ..
 

Jenov

Member
O man, I hope Scotland saves England. Would be like a reverse Braveheart... or something. Would definitely watch.
 
The council can't force anything, all they can do is talk
And she has the most authority.

The council is basically the memberstates. The council can dissolve and reestablish or invoke Article 7.
I'm not sure. Listening to folks like Junker and Schulz over the last couple of days, they sound very eager for the UK to sign the exit papers as quickly as possible, before they can change their mind. Might be part of their negotiation and "scare" tactics -- or they weren't all too happy with the UK's role in the EU over the last few years which, from their perspective, would be kinda understandable. Also, the UK leaving might weaken the EU at first sight but if it shifts a part of the UK's economy to Germany, Benelux, and France, they might not be all to sad about it.

Those might be reasons but the biggest reason is to end uncertainty
 

Hasney

Member
I honestly think we will go the General Election route with the campaigns based on "we will stick to the referendum results" or not. How you sell this to the EU and the markets though is another thing, will the former even entertain the notion?

I wonder if UKIP will be the only ones to campaign with the brexit results. ..

Quite possibly. The Lib Dems are saying that they would ignore the referendum and making that the main policy she'll hang her hat on.
 

boingball

Member
That would be a very dangerous thing to do for the Tories. In Scotland Labour has been replaced with the SNP and something similar could happen in England, i.e. UKIP could replace the Tories.
 

Protome

Member
Option 1 makes the most sense but won't happen because Westminster doesn't take the devolved parliaments seriously. In a better formed union, Scotland, NI and Wales devolved parliaments would have a veto on this kind of thing as is, it's all or nothing.
 

Dambrosi

Banned
That would be a very dangerous thing to do for the Tories. In Scotland Labour has been replaced with the SNP and something similar could happen in England, i.e. UKIP could replace the Tories.
Yeah

No

Hahahahahaha

Nigel Farage is a cunt, nobody will vote for him after he said that he wants to legalise handguns.

All anyone has to do is remind people of that particularly odious policy statement and he's toast.
D
 

kmag

Member
I totally disagree. The UK is getting hurt by uncertainty due to this indecisiveness.

I do not understand how blind people are if they say its good to wait a couple of month and then start with negotiations.


Who will knvest kn UK if its unclear if Scottland will be there in a few years time, what tarrifs will or will not apply, will UK retain gheir bankkng license passport etc.
The banking license will be gone, the eu isn't handing it out to a complete non member who doesn't have to follow Eu legislation the uk would have arrange some sort of associate membership to keep it and I can't see anyway they'd sell that to the electorate
 
this whole thing is a big Tory mess, why did you guys give these morons a majority government in the first place? Their party in-fighting created a dumpster fire filled with poo
 

Burai

shitonmychest57
this whole thing is a big Tory mess, why did you guys give these morons a majority government in the first place? Their party in-fighting created a dumpster fire filled with poo

Because Ed Miliband looks like an Aardman character and his name rhymes with "Red" and that's far more important to voters than things like policy.
 
I totally disagree. The UK is getting hurt by uncertainty due to this indecisiveness.

I do not understand how blind people are if they say its good to wait a couple of month and then start with negotiations.

Who will knvest kn UK if its unclear if Scottland will be there in a few years time, what tarrifs will or will not apply, will UK retain gheir bankkng license passport etc.

I never said it should take months. They should announce A or B this week. Probably Monday already. The EU won't tolerate a slow process for good reasons. But they're not going to go full seppuku on Britain when the queen is standing behind them sharping knives because some shitfuck just took away 'her' Britain.

I was able to 'call' Cameron stepping down a few hours beforehand, so I would argue I'm not entirely a headless chicken here.
 

Tak3n

Banned
Of course what happens if leave won again.....that would do so much more damage, and the remain voters would really be beside themselves. Just accept it...you lost
 

2San

Member
Of course what happens if leave won again.....that would do so much more damage, and the remain voters would really be beside themselves. Just accept it...you lost
Why would it do much more damage?

People aren't going to accept a loss if it's risking the well being of the country/themselves.
 

Cromwell

Banned
Of course what happens if leave won again.....that would do so much more damage, and the remain voters would really be beside themselves. Just accept it...you lost

If a nuke is headed towards your home you take every possible chance you can to deactivate it. This is people's lives and livelihood we're talking about, they have every right to do everything they can to stop this if at all possible.
 

Azih

Member
this whole thing is a big Tory mess, why did you guys give these morons a majority government in the first place? Their party in-fighting created a dumpster fire filled with poo
The British people didn't. Cameron got less than 37% of the vote. But thanks to the bullshit of non PR voting that got him more than 50% of the seats and 100% of the power.
 

weekev

Banned
If a nuke is headed towards your home you take every possible chance you can to deactivate it. This is people's lives and livelihood we're talking about, they have every right to do everything they can to stop this if at all possible.

Folks should have done all they could whilst there was still a chance to stop it. The nuke has gone off, we now need to deal with the fallout.
 

Effect

Member
Not gonna happen.
It's like asking for massive riots and protests.

I don't think so. After the cliff the UK market went off, and what it's doing to everyone else after the vote and attention on how "Leave" leaders straight up lied and the regret people have no way you'll have people rioting. The reality is very likely crashing down on people and they've released how bad this will be with the other side either dropping the "I told yous" or trying to hold them in.
 
Folks should have done all they could whilst there was still a chance to stop it. The nuke has gone off, we now need to deal with the fallout.

That's funny because it wasn't till the day after the vote that politicians started back tracking on all their claims about the leave campaign, two of them being EU membership money and Immigration. The people were lied to and a lot of people regretted their vote.

Then you have the idiots who were voting opposite of their beliefs to stick it to the man, racists, thick people who didn't think their vote mattered all regretting it the day after like a hangover.
 

Cromwell

Banned
Folks should have done all they could whilst there was still a chance to stop it. The nuke has gone off, we now need to deal with the fallout.

It's non-binding, and the Leave campaign revealed the day after that almost everything they campaigned on was a lie or exaggeration. The government should tear it up, even if it means sacrificing their political careers. Riots wouldn't happen, the idea of that is even laughable since the most passionate leave supporters are older than 60.
 
This is my thought. Why the hell would the EU wants us back? If I were them, and vindictive, I'd make it difficult for the UK to get good deals with the EU, looking to prove to its members there's no benefit to leaving. Political suicide? Probably, but if they're desperate, they'd do it. Their assertive but not-entirely-disrespectful response of 'fine, but get out now' is pretty masterful in my eyes. They seem way more prepared than the UK politicians anyway in the initial aftermath.

And I don't agree with the result, but I will defend your right to vote how you did and to claim this victory. The 50% +1 'win condition' was never in dispute until now, it was won fair and square. If ppl claim they felt they were lied to, welcome to politics. You should've done more research if it was so important to you.

If we get another referendum, I'd be shocked though a bit happy for selfish reasons. But it's a pretty dangerous precedent.

For those who didn't vote, didn't think their vote would count, or voted Leave for the luls, fuck off. You don't get to complain.

(I just went to fb for the first time since Thu and the vitriol from my pro-Remain friends is just sickening. Some are acting as bad as the people they claim are awful)
You think the remain voters are going to be civil after this? No. I woke up today still furious, and I'll forever hate the leavers for what they've done.
 

spekkeh

Banned
This is my thought. Why the hell would the EU wants us back? If I were them, and vindictive, I'd make it difficult for the UK to get good deals with the EU, looking to prove to its members there's no benefit to leaving. Political suicide? Probably, but if they're desperate, they'd do it. Their assertive but not-entirely-disrespectful response of 'fine, but get out now' is pretty masterful in my eyes. They seem way more prepared than the UK politicians anyway in the initial aftermath.
I think the EU would absolutely want to see the UK return with their tail between their legs. It would be a stern warning to anyone deciding to leave: even the most independent country saw their economy hemorrhaged to the point they thought better of it. The balance of superpowers remains and the internal market stays big. But above all it would finally shut up the UK in the EU.
 

weekev

Banned
That's funny because it wasn't till the day after the vote that politicians started back tracking on all their claims about the leave campaign, two of them being EU membership money and Immigration. The people were lied to and a lot of people regretted their vote.

Then you have the idiots who were voting opposite of their beliefs to stick it to the man, racists, thick people who didn't think their vote mattered all regretting it the day after like a hangover.

The idiots who voted opposite have voted, there isn't some magic form that doesn't count it because they didn't actually mean it.

As for a campaign based on lies....welcome to UK politics. Every election is based on MPs overselling what they can give us. People should have done some research and listened to independent experts who had no ulterior motive, but they didn't, the blindly listened to soundbites from Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Nigel Farage.

It's non-binding, and the Leave campaign revealed the day after that almost everything they campaigned on was a lie or exaggeration. The government should tear it up, even if it means sacrificing their political careers. Riots wouldn't happen, the idea of that is even laughable since the most passionate leave supporters are older than 60.

Riots absolutely would happen if people felt that their democratic rights had been breached if for example a referendum was held with one of the biggest turnouts in history and not adhered to. Honestly folks please accept it, this is over, there is likely to be a general election soon, the best thing we can do is to become more politically active and ensure that people actually understand the facts about who to vote for and why if an election is called which a lot of people seem to think is on the cards.
 

Cromwell

Banned
The idiots who voted opposite have voted, there isn't some magic form that doesn't count it because they didn't actually mean it.

As for a campaign based on lies....welcome to UK politics. Every election is based on MPs overselling what they can give us. People should have done some research and listened to independent experts who had no ulterior motive, but they didn't, the blindly listened to soundbites from Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Nigel Farage.



Riots absolutely would happen if people felt that their democratic rights had been breached if for example a referendum was held with one of the biggest turnouts in history and not adhered to. Honestly folks please accept it, this is over, there is likely to be a general election soon, the best thing we can do is to become more politically active and ensure that people actually understand the facts about who to vote for and why if an election is called which a lot of people seem to think is on the cards.

Yeah, no. It's not happening. People that old do not riot, and if they did it would be a pathetic riot.
 
The idiots who voted opposite have voted, there isn't some magic form that doesn't count it because they didn't actually mean it.

As for a campaign based on lies....welcome to UK politics. Every election is based on MPs overselling what they can give us. People should have done some research and listened to independent experts who had no ulterior motive, but they didn't, the blindly listened to soundbites from Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Nigel Farage.

What are you even saying, how are people supposed to 'research' where the £350m is going to go and whats going to happen with immigration when all they have to go on is what the politicians say is going to happen. Could I have issued a Freedom of Information request to see Boris Johnson's diary "Today I promised £350m to the NHS.....LOL.".

I voted for remain and it makes me sick to my stomach all the people who now regret voting leave based on lies considering the vote is pretty much 50/50. Do you really think leave would have won if they had said nothing about immigration?
 

KingBroly

Banned
I think the EU would absolutely want to see the UK return with their tail between their legs. It would be a stern warning to anyone deciding to leave: even the most independent country saw their economy hemorrhaged to the point they thought better of it. The balance of superpowers remains and the internal market stays big. But above all it would finally shut up the UK in the EU.

I get the feeling that they're acting that way with the current result, asking for a quick departure of the EU, knowing that Scotland will leave them and become an EU member.
 

Cromwell

Banned
Are you always such an ageist, classist, insufferable fool or is it only when your side loses.

It's just facts. I've never seen a riot exclusively full of 50+ year olds, have you? Typically only people younger than that are ever energized to that degree, and they all voted to remain.
 

geordiemp

Member
What is interesting is that all countries go through difficulties and times of unrest and need.

In those times, it becomes clear who are your friends and allies that help you, and those that just want to see you burn.

To those posters screaming rip the band aid and go away and die UK, maybe your country will have problems and see how you like it when people say tough shit.

Some people and politicians have class like Merkel. Some are just kids shouting in the playground.
 

Clockwork5

Member
It's just facts. I've never seen a riot exclusively full of 50+ year olds, have you? Typically only people younger than that are ever energized to do that, and they all voted to remain.
50+ year olds don't riot in the streets, they riot at the poll booth, which is far more effective. I would have thought you had learned this in the past few days.
 
It's just facts. I've never seen a riot exclusively full of 50+ year olds, have you? Typically only people younger than that are ever energized to that degree, and they all voted to remain.

All?
No.
A lot of young people didn't turn up to vote, and of the ones that did, a good number voted to leave.

Meanwhile the percent that voted to leave rises with age it doesn't go from nobody to 100% as age goes from 49 to 50.
 
You think the remain voters are going to be civil after this? No. I woke up today still furious, and I'll forever hate the leavers for what they've done.

Just curious how will you know who to hate? There is no sure tell if someone doesn't tell you. Even in London 1 in 3 that voted voted to leave. These nice little generalisations online like country vs city poor vs rich and young vs old are just that, generalisations. In fact if the stats are to be believed you should ask people their salary and hate them if they earn under the national average wage because that's probably the stronger correlation.
 

Cromwell

Banned
Just curious how will you know who to hate? There is no sure tell if someone doesn't tell you. Even in London 1 in 3 that voted voted to leave. These nice little generalisations online like country vs city poor vs rich and young vs old are just that, generalisations. In fact if the stats are to be believed you should ask people their salary and hate them if they earn under the national average wage because that's probably the stronger correlation.

"Did you vote remain or leave?"

"Leave"

"Fuck you"

Simple enough.
 

Hasney

Member
Of course what happens if leave won again.....that would do so much more damage, and the remain voters would really be beside themselves. Just accept it...you lost

I'd be more beside myself if I let this happen while I have a breath in my body. As long as I make every effort I personally can, including getting out there and campaigning, to stay/rejoin the EU down the line, at least I can feel like I've done all I can and accept that. I couldn't accept sitting around and shrugging going "well I voted" because that just wasn't enough.
 

Pandy

Member
Yeah

No

Hahahahahaha

Nigel Farage is a cunt, nobody will vote for him after he said that he wants to legalise handguns.

All anyone has to do is remind people of that particularly odious policy statement and he's toast.
D

That shit isn't going to fly and you know it.

They already have 12% of the vote, 25-35% shouldn't be difficult for them in circumstances like that. With a split Conservative party and split Labour party fighting amongst themselves while simultaneously declaring publicly that they'll void the referendum, a UKIP majority is a frighteningly real possibility if a general election is held anytime soon.

EDIT: Not sure how reliable it is given he's been sacked, but Hilary Benn has just stated that Labour won't try to overturn the result through elections. If true, it's a done deal for England & Wales at this point, as the only remaining hope is the Conservatives dumping their own referendum then successfully campaigning against the result despite many Leave voters protesting against them. Completely fucked.
 

weekev

Banned
What are you even saying, how are people supposed to 'research' where the £350m is going to go and whats going to happen with immigration when all they have to go on is what the politicians say is going to happen. Could I have issued a Freedom of Information request to see Boris Johnson's diary "Today I promised £350m to the NHS.....LOL.".

I voted for remain and it makes me sick to my stomach all the people who now regret voting leave based on lies considering the vote is pretty much 50/50. Do you really think leave would have won if they had said nothing about immigration?

It didn't take a lot of effort for me to find out that the amount we pay is around a third of what was quoted. 5 minutes of Googling. Not to mention ro countless interviews with independent financial experts who backed up this figure. The information was there but folks preferred to listen to Boris et Al.

Regardless we aren't having another referendum and our politicians aren't doing doing backsies.
 
It didn't take a lot of effort for me to find out that the amount we pay is around a third of what was quoted. 5 minutes of Googling. Not to mention ro countless interviews with independent financial experts who backed up this figure. The information was there but folks preferred to listen to Boris et Al.

Regardless we aren't having another referendum and our politicians aren't doing doing backsies.

I'm not talking about how much we actually pay, I'm talking about that money being used for the NHS, complete lies that were backtracked less than 12 hours after the polls closed.
 

Madness

Member
Right, so they wouldn't do shit if Cameron tore up the agreement. Glad we can agree.

What? Most of those age stats were based on small exit polls conducted by YouGov and not scaled to actual population or age ranges. And even then, they showed that 44% of all 25-49 year olds voted to leave versus 56% who voted to remain. That guarantees millions of under 50 year olds who are very capable of rioting. Keep in mind most of the Leave camp were also UKIP voters and nationalists. Can you not see what would happen if after the democratically conducted referendum Cameron tears up the agreement? What just happened to Jo Cox by 52 year old Thomas Mair? Don't be delusional in thinking people would just huff and puff and have tea and crumpets. Not honoring the referendum now would be a sure fire way make millions of Brits into ultranationalists.
 
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