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Vox: Bracksies how Brexit could wind up not actually happening
- Thread starter Eric C
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Reversing the decision of the referendum would be straightforward to do because Article 50 has not yet been invoked. However the concessions David Cameron renegotiated at the start of the referendum would no longer be on the table.
Britain's reputation as a legally and economically stable place to invest has been permanently damaged even if the decision is reversed. Additionally, the influence Britain once had within the EU has now been lost. A push to reform the EU from inside will not be achievable.
There is still lasting damage from a reversal without much to gain relative to where the country was before the referendum.
Britain's reputation as a legally and economically stable place to invest has been permanently damaged even if the decision is reversed. Additionally, the influence Britain once had within the EU has now been lost. A push to reform the EU from inside will not be achievable.
There is still lasting damage from a reversal without much to gain relative to where the country was before the referendum.
I'm sure Brexit will still happen, Sturgeon will use the threat of veto-ing to ensure a second independence referendum.
Most Tory voters voted for Brexit so they aren't going to elect a new leader who doesn't want to go through with it, they'll be happy to cut Scotland free as well because it just strengthens their grip on power, a Labour general election victory without at least the opportunity to form a coalition with the SNP is going to be really tough to achieve.
Most Tory voters voted for Brexit so they aren't going to elect a new leader who doesn't want to go through with it, they'll be happy to cut Scotland free as well because it just strengthens their grip on power, a Labour general election victory without at least the opportunity to form a coalition with the SNP is going to be really tough to achieve.
I think it's incredibly important at this point that an exit (at least for England and Wales) does happen. If it does not, the extreme right will be energised across Europe, and the long term consequences for the whole of Europe will be far more severe. Similarly, I think a Norway style deal for the UK after leaving would provoke widespread resistance and increased support for the extreme right not just in the UK but across the continent.
BrainZEROX
Member
Continental Europe here. Err... I'm not sure I want England in again. That will be tough for us too but I think we may have a better chance at a better Europe getting rid of an hostile member. Like everyone else in Europe, England's decision shocked me last friday but now I do think we can really live with it, in a positive way even. I feel sorry for those who voted remain though.
Sorry, I'm not willing to sacrifice my future on the altar of political convenience.
The far right can be fought, as they have many times in the past, without consigning tens of millions of people to the scrap pile.
If the UK ever actually exits the EU it will be a political failure the likes of which the world has never seen.
How will you be affected? Just curious at how some people are affected personally.
Napoleonthechimp
Member
EU funding for the arts will be pulled and the film industry in which I offer technical services will dry up, that coupled with the lack of free movement means it is unlikely I'll be able to freely move to jobs around Europe. My business will die, and I'll not be able to make any money.
That is not going to happen.
While it is true that the devolved parliaments have enshrined that they must follow EU law it doesn't mean we have to be part of the EU to do it.
The SNP won't block invoking article 50 because there is no point holding the rest of the UK hostage when the crux of the argument for a new referendum is that Scotland is being taken out of the EU against the will of the people.
hydrophilic attack
Member
They can do it to get leverage for another independence referendum. I.e., "we won't block this if we get another referendum" under whatever favourable terms
SlipperyFishes
Banned
My polish friends have already faced abuse from locals. And they've lived here for over 10 years and have a daughter growing up here.
How is that right and representative of Great Britain?
How is that right and representative of Great Britain?
Ether_Snake
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He has no reason to do that, he would be far more likely to use the threat of prolonged uncertainty to force the EU to negotiate or kick the UK out. No UK PM wants the blame for what would follow leaving the EU.
I don't think it's feasible to undo it at this point. If Britain stays, the EU is going to treat them like a second-class citizen... it's sort of like when you announce to your employer that you're quitting and then change your mind... their attitude has been irrevocably changed. The EU is going to (if they haven't already) start pushing Britain out of any important committees due to a conflict of interest. So I think these people who are thinking they can get a "do-over" are just engaging in wild fantasies.
The racists were always there, they now feel it's socially acceptable to out themselves.
SneakyStephan
Banned
You don't get to pretend to be all democratic and hold referendums and then ignore them...
Let it be a lesson for the entire world : if there is something being voted on and you care about the outcome then go vote
Let it be a lesson for the entire world : if there is something being voted on and you care about the outcome then go vote
Regrettably I think it'll happen regardless. 17 million voted leave and got their wish. Just have to deal with it.
Should have put better criteria in the referendum, like super majority. They didn't and this is the result.
Also a sizeable amount of the population and politicians have shown that they don't care about the EU and that sort of stuff shouldn't just be brushed under the carpet. EU wants this sorted quickly.
Should have put better criteria in the referendum, like super majority. They didn't and this is the result.
Also a sizeable amount of the population and politicians have shown that they don't care about the EU and that sort of stuff shouldn't just be brushed under the carpet. EU wants this sorted quickly.
What kills me is that from what I have been reading, the areas that voted majority "leave" benefitted the most from the EU. Sort of like how GOP voters here in the 'States consistently vote against their own self interests (then get angry when others point that fact out).
If the UK does depart I am thinking there will be many, many news stories a decade from now reporting on how this historic event negatively affected those areas, and how the voters there regret it.
Stallion Dan
Member
lol, they punish UK and a huge chunk of EU economy gets fucked as we import from elsewhere instead.
They aren't children out for petty revenge.
They aren't quality of life benefits in many cases so people don't care about them.
Stallion Dan
Member
oops
Captain AHat
Member
If the Scots saved us, I'd vote for Westminster to answer to Holyrood from now on haha.
This event is absolutely traumatising, I have not been able to function properly and even live a normal life. Politics has completely transcended my restful domestic microcosm that I you are supposed to rely upon. I've slept terribly, I've felt extremely depressed, yesterday was already a very sad London Pride (with the Orlando shooting) that was made even more so by all of this. My Polish PhD friends (all 1sts, all funded, all 100x smarter than the idiots that voted for this) have been crying and distraught with no clear understanding on their future and research. Friends who aren't even into politics who have voted for the first times in their lives are extremely depressed over all of this. I have done nothing but refresh The Guardian app, mope around, cry, debate with my friends who have all told their pension-safe comfortable post-war Northern parents/grandparents to f*** off. My parents of course voted Remain and I have never seen them this upset. My naturalised Polish mother cried on Friday morning fearing stepping outside in the country she has called home for 40 years. My father has never been so active about getting me and my friends to sign online petitions. I am so disappointed in this country. I was already planning to study in Germany next year but now I have never wanted to leave more.
I'm really ignorant on this, but would they really deport people that are already living and working in the UK?
I assume they'd have some sort of program where people that are already in the UK can stay.
Ron Mexico
Member
I imagine assumptions are what created this whole mess in the first place.
Mix Master
Member
holy shit
Well I believe they just don't know, there is no plan (because the Brexit politicians are not experts at anything but propelling their own careers forwards - they're in it for the ride, not the legal details) these people are students without visas, navigating a very delicate and stripped down funding system. They are scared that the AHRC will simply not be able to absorb the costing of all of this mess.
Ireland voted twice against EU treaties that were vital - hell, even FRance did. Europe is masterful at moving past rejection and finding a way to get through things. There's a reason why Merkel has said we don't have to immediately rush into Article 50 - the longer it goes, and the harsher the economic impacts look as things unravel, the greater the chance of Brexit not happening.
And there is no way Germany wants Brexit to happen - or indeed, many of the EU nations (Ireland, the eastern block etc). The ideal situation for the EU right now is for Britain to suffer a drip feed of bad economic news over the next 6 months as a result of this vote, and then to recommit to the EU. It doesn't lose one of the most important member states, it sends a strong signal as to why countries should stay in the EU, and it chastens the largest euro-sceptic nation.
I don't get why your mom who's naturalized and been there for 40 years is crying and afraid of stepping outside though?
Because she is Polish --- she still has an affinity to Poland, and Polish people! Is that not blindly obvious!? She has a Polish accent still and after all of those tweets about 'send them back' can you not see why!? She occasionally gets hassle from people about her accent and people being awkward with her where my parents live (Blackpool) despite the fact she has a legal degree and has been in the top tax payer bracket every single year of her working life.
But your question implies 'her' and yes she is upset personally but will probably not feel a great effect being naturalised --- but it's beyond 'her', she feels compassion for all of the hard working Poles who just want a better life than they get back home and are prepared to work hard for that.
And yes I am aware English people want a better life too - and the core reason Brexit has happened is because the North has been an uneducated wasteland for 30 years due to the pursuit of neoliberal policies where London managed to competitively survive and the rest just fell off the map. This problem has festered for many years due to a lack of education and direct planning to create a competitive UK where all regions have a specialist enterprise. Immigrant integration has also been a problem that was never properly answered but has been magnified by fear and anxiety over a steady job and pleasant life for everyday Britains created by neoliberal economic policies.
Oh I get it now, she probably won't be personally affected but is distressed about the xenophobia going around and what it means for her fellow people.
That makes sense, but I still don't think the UK is going to start mass deporting immigrants/workers/students. That's going to fuck up a lot of companies and stuff. But then again I don't know anything about UK politics or policies.
D
Deleted member 17706
Unconfirmed Member
If they didn't start the process the day after the vote, then I don't see how anyone could start it later what with growing regrets and a clearer picture of all of the damage a Brexit would cause (and already is).
I'm hopeful that it won't happen at all.
I'm hopeful that it won't happen at all.
Well yes, I have no faith in the out of work lads and lasses of Essex opening up the Costa concession at City Airport at 6 am, or picking cabbages in the bleak Kent wilderness for 10 hours a day or really doing much at all... You either educate these people or get them into a steady industry that pays them comfortably so they don't start shouting aggressively at Muslims/Polish people in the street. But I guess it's globalisation that has created this polarity, nothing is stable anymore, the pursuit of neoliberal policies in the 80s that undereducated the then recently redundant communities in the North is to blame.
Captain AHat
Member
I live in Poulton (just down the road for those that don't know the area)... I am so so sorry for your Parents. The hatred towards the Polish in Blackpool is fucking ridiculous. I couldn't be happier to have another culture on my doorstep, but the 90odd THOUSAND (seriously I have heard that as a figure given by some idiots -_-) of Polish in Blackpool is clearly making is a shithole in the eyes of the populous, nothing at all to do with the years of neglect or anything, nothing at all.
My only complaint about the Polish population round here is the lack of a Polish restaurant, I want authentic perogies goddammit! >:/...
No seriously, I am very sorry for this shitstorm. I voted remain, but I am apologising on behalf of the locals. Cos someone has to.
Jimbob Smalls
Banned
There's a few members where if a similar vote was done the results would be similar. The UK is no more or less "hostile" in this regard.
Kadayi
Banned
Indeed. Trying to weedle and procrastinate on a public referendum just because the outcome didn't go as planned is political and economic suicide. The sooner the process of withdrawal is underway the better for everyone involved.
Stallion Dan
Member
Stop trying to put this on Brexit supporters. Such a thing should be an EU rule, except they never bothered to get round to creating it, Article 50 is unfinished.
EatinOlives
Member
Someone will have to explain to me the argument that the referendum is a done deal and that you can't take it back in any way even if putting it up to a simple majority vote was a terrible idea, because I'm not seeing it. All I hear is "something something Will of the People" but what exactly prevents the country for holding another "are you SURE?" referendum?
Stallion Dan
Member
Because a second referendum would be a mess, people would lose faith in the voting system and think "If they don't win they'll just cry again and again until they win" and not bother to vote, it wouldn't be an as accurate representation a second time around.
It got record voters numbers since 1992, that won't happen again.
Europe can fuck off - until we invoke article 59 it's none of their business what we do or don't do with a non-binding referendum result.
As the second largest economy in Europe behind Germany (well until last week), it would be a massive loss to not have us in the single market. So I think they'll be open to quick negotiation but we'll have to agree to the same rules as Norway. If boris is PM he might refuse free movement of people but hopefully he'll realise there isn't much choice. End up with basically the same rules as we have now but he can try and claim we at least have control over our sovereignty (which we still won't really)
It apparently teaches the rest of the world a lesson to be careful when voting?
The UK has been an obstructionist partner and a huge factor in the ideological stagnation that plagues the EU. If I had any amount of faith in the politicians currently running Europe I'd actually be glad this happened.
I don't really get it either. As far as elected officials, simple majorities are fine; they aren't permanently elected. This is such a huge decision and I don't see how a 52-48 vote is the will of the people. Half the people will be happy and half upset. Even with a supermajority there will still be those who are upset, but I don't see how a decision like leaving the EU can be made when it's clearly very divided. And with all this talk about leavers being upset about the leave campaign lies and promises...I don't get it.
It's ridiculous that every fucking video game asks you "Are you sure you want to quit?" before exiting, yet the BIGGEST decision in decades for Britain is a one and done affair.
And to the people saying it, I'd rather my country not be used as some airy-tale morality play to get people in other countries to "get out and vote!" People's jobs, livelihoods are on the line here, we shouldn't go ahead so we can do the equivalent of telling kids to eat their carrots else they go blind.
And to the people saying it, I'd rather my country not be used as some airy-tale morality play to get people in other countries to "get out and vote!" People's jobs, livelihoods are on the line here, we shouldn't go ahead so we can do the equivalent of telling kids to eat their carrots else they go blind.
There doesn't have to be another referendum though, right? The referendum is advisory and the government can act on the result as they wish and ignore it if they make a good case for it (or not, but I think they would make the best case they could to save their political career)...and if there really are enough leavers so against staying then surely the leave MPs would get support to continue fighting to leave?
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