Brolic Gaoler
formerly Alienshogun
Judgement and halo 4 were disappointing. Judgement was pure shit. If halo and gears suck again I'm dumping xbox and going to PS4. And there's probably a lot more like me.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Xbox One is selling exceptionally well, but...
- Thread starter jayu26
- Start date
Judgement and halo 4 were disappointing. Judgement was pure shit. If halo and gears suck again I'm dumping xbox and going to PS4. And there's probably a lot more like me.
Glorified G
Member
They make money off games through marketshare. If they keep at this trajectory than Sony is going to dominate third party sales which is where the real money is. That didn't happen last gen.
I agree. If Halo 5 & the next Gears game doesn't improve, then those series will most likely go the way of series like Crash Bandicoot & Spyro the Dragon: Down into irrelevancy.
I must imagine Microsoft is at least somewhat disappointed with sales thusfar. It sacrificed mindshare in large parts of the world to keep up with projected demand in its historically strong markets. But Sony is besting them, even in those markets, without any compelling exclusives and has seen even greater success in markets Microsoft isn't supplying.
Do all the tier 2 countries that imported consoles count as sales. Just wondering if xones are being bought from tier 1 countries in bulk and then resold which would count as sales. Or are stores redistributing them within their own chains to tier 2 countries which wouldn't count as sales. Just trying to guess how many are actually sold to consumers and not other stores in different countries. Because while some like to say xone sales will go up some once they launch everywhere and don't think it will make any difference because I've seen too many pictures of non launch countries with stacks of xones sitting on shelves.
I would imagine console sales (at least launch) were in line with expectations. Not sure about more recent sales as that's a bit nebulous worldwide and there are some hints that the slowdown was a little more severe than the launch would indicate.
The issue for MS though is marketshare and in particular split of multi-platform games. I suspect sales of CoD and to a lesser extent BF4 were acceptable due to carryover trends and strong launch. But if the PS4 becomes the bigger platform for 3rd party sales (ratio split wise) and XB1 becomes more of a "for the exclusives" console plus the media stuff then they'll be unhappy. Particularly in US last gen the 360 saw the bulk of most 3rd party titles selling on MS platform with PS3 seeing a smaller split or being for the Sony exclusives.
I think there are already signs that if PS4 continues to get better versions of big 3rd party titles people will lean towards that platform when buying them which hurts MS (even if console sales are good).
The issue for MS though is marketshare and in particular split of multi-platform games. I suspect sales of CoD and to a lesser extent BF4 were acceptable due to carryover trends and strong launch. But if the PS4 becomes the bigger platform for 3rd party sales (ratio split wise) and XB1 becomes more of a "for the exclusives" console plus the media stuff then they'll be unhappy. Particularly in US last gen the 360 saw the bulk of most 3rd party titles selling on MS platform with PS3 seeing a smaller split or being for the Sony exclusives.
I think there are already signs that if PS4 continues to get better versions of big 3rd party titles people will lean towards that platform when buying them which hurts MS (even if console sales are good).
If there is a console that deserves to get shit, It's the XB1.It's a joke of a follow up to the 360. They did everything wrong what they were able to. The good numbers of the XB1 is not because it's a great product. It's because the 360 was loved in the US.
Sodding_Gamer
Member
Animation-Imp
Member
Chances are that it's below expectations,
like some have stated already,
there is surplus stock, there's even so much stock some countries like Germany redistribute their stock to tier 2 countries...
So they have enough stock to provide for the demand in their own country and neighbouring countries.
At this stage I think they expected to still sell out.
like some have stated already,
there is surplus stock, there's even so much stock some countries like Germany redistribute their stock to tier 2 countries...
So they have enough stock to provide for the demand in their own country and neighbouring countries.
At this stage I think they expected to still sell out.
Prince Vultan
Banned
I think that's the issue and why they're doing things like Titanfall bundles.
They need as many people as possible to get on board early so their friends and family join them at a later date, at the moment pushing Titanfall is the best way of doing that even if it means less profit in the short-term.
I'm also assuming there's a large number of people that don't own either the PS4 or XB1 but are amassing a library of PS4 games via PS+, it's going to be hard swaying them long-term so they need to be aggressive in attracting people in the short-term
samurai1226
Member
Hardware sales are a marathon, not a sprint. a whole lot of console gamers havent bought a console yet and wont buy it until theres a bigger lineup and/or a cheaper price
COD 2014 was unveiled at Destination Playstation earlier this month, so your rumor would make perfect sense.
But when does MS's DLC deal with COD end, anyway? Anyone know? Are you sure it's still locked up for a couple years? I find it extremely hard to imagine a scenario where MS's deal isn't all-encompassing (timed DLC, advertising rights, PR announcements, lead platform, etc.); thus, I find it hard to imagine a scenario where MS would tolerate Activision publicly touting the PS4 as COD's lead/best platform, while there is still a DLC deal in place that is supposed to be promoting Xbox.
My guess is that any deal Xbox has with COD would be over, and that opens the window for Activision to switch the lead platform to PlayStation.
Microsoft never had a clue about what they were getting into with the Xbox. They thought that the living room was going to be the major threat towards their Windows empire, so they went all-in with the Xbox to impede Sony (and lost billions in the process). We now know that the Mobile market was that major threat, and they've been doing fuck-all for the last decade to deal with that. I don't doubt as far as Microsoft is concerned the Xbox as a high-end dedicated gaming console is a dead-end, and if they had hindsight they would have scrapped that project from the start.
Prince Vultan
Banned
I find the idea that Activision would make COD a chiefly PS associated franchise extremely hard to believe personally.
I don't think MS allows the Xbox division the bottomless resources some seem to believe they do, but I think they'd liquidate their entire budget and drive it straight to Activision's doorstep at the first hint such a switch on Acti's part could be on the table before anything else.
Just can't see it happening... unless Activision are genuinely pissed about MS' treating Respawn like their new golden boys, given the history there.
BuggeryBugz
Member
When will we get some fresh official X1 sales data? I'm itching to update the graph (last point for X1 is still shipped):
Where's the 360 & the OG xbox on that list?
I think we're going to see some really sluggish sales after this month, and leading right up to E3, and possibly even beyond that if they can't show off some must-have stuff there.
They had Titanfall this month, but after that, none of their known exclusives have dates, so you're looking at potentially nothing first party being released all the way up to E3, and maybe even a month or two after that.
Add this possible lack of first party games to the general consensus of all multiplats running better on PS4, and the next few months could be very bad for MS, and the PS4 could add another million or 2 to it's lead.
They had Titanfall this month, but after that, none of their known exclusives have dates, so you're looking at potentially nothing first party being released all the way up to E3, and maybe even a month or two after that.
Add this possible lack of first party games to the general consensus of all multiplats running better on PS4, and the next few months could be very bad for MS, and the PS4 could add another million or 2 to it's lead.
Ah so you speak for all the people that have bought the product?
Yes, of course. How can you question this? It should be clear by now that I alone are the standard which the industry and consumers should be held too.
Or I was just expressing my opinion. Maybe. I dunno. You decide plz. =)
QuicheFontaine
Member
Xbox One: Hey, I am above average! So what if the PS4's ahead of me? There's no shame in being second. [imagines]
Announcer: And now, Avis Rent-A-Car is proud to present the second best band in America. Will you welcome Garfunkel, Messina, Oates, and the Xbox One singing their number two hit, "Born to Runner-Up." [Band begins to play; audience boos]
Xbox One: Why would they come to our concert just to boo us?
Uncle Rupee
Banned
I agree that is selling exceptionally well despite MS's ridiculous anti-consumer policies (and the ensuing about-face), the high price, the poor tech, the lack of compelling exclusive software, etc.. We'll see how it does in a year.
While MS have dramatically misread the market, I'd be very surprised if, internally, they didn't have a few scenarios worked out depending on the initial success of the Xbone. So I don't think that Scenario One is particularly realistic. A company the size of MS, and with the catastrophic product failures that they've had under their belt, I think would if nothing else have planned for their product to not sell 1 billion units.
On the other hand, it's clear from the fact that they have already gone into panic mode, less than six months after launch, that their figures must at least be at the low end of acceptable. So while I think that Scenario B is more plausible, I don't think it's reasonable to infer that MS are happy with the Xbone's sales figures or that they are meeting or exceeding targets. So I think it's a kind of Scenario B.5.
The thing is, I don't know of any product situation with MS where they released a product to lacklustre feedback, which was handily beaten by a far superior product, but which they nevertheless stuck with, improved the value of, and eventually turned around. Bing is on life support, and charitably Windows Phone can only be called a 'work in progress'. It will be very interesting to see what, if anything, MS do to try and save the Xbox brand. My feeling is that if we think MS's actions so far have been of dubious moral worth, then going forward we are going to see some outright horrible ways of trying to extract money from their userbase. When you mismanage a product so spectacularly that you spend $100 million just on making the controller worse, you have to recoup that investment somehow.
On the other hand, it's clear from the fact that they have already gone into panic mode, less than six months after launch, that their figures must at least be at the low end of acceptable. So while I think that Scenario B is more plausible, I don't think it's reasonable to infer that MS are happy with the Xbone's sales figures or that they are meeting or exceeding targets. So I think it's a kind of Scenario B.5.
The thing is, I don't know of any product situation with MS where they released a product to lacklustre feedback, which was handily beaten by a far superior product, but which they nevertheless stuck with, improved the value of, and eventually turned around. Bing is on life support, and charitably Windows Phone can only be called a 'work in progress'. It will be very interesting to see what, if anything, MS do to try and save the Xbox brand. My feeling is that if we think MS's actions so far have been of dubious moral worth, then going forward we are going to see some outright horrible ways of trying to extract money from their userbase. When you mismanage a product so spectacularly that you spend $100 million just on making the controller worse, you have to recoup that investment somehow.
It could very easily be that MS just doesn't see the worth in pumping money into COD anymore.
I mean, when you think about the sheer amount of money they spent on timed DLC, advertising, and PR, etc., on COD for the 360, in the end they still came out second place to the PS3 last generation. And they had the COD deal for Xbox One, in addition to Titanfall and Battlefield 4 deals. All these deals have done shit all for them, with their console falling significantly behind the PS4 in spite of everything.
Then there's also the perception (be it true or false) that the COD series is in decline, and that its popularity and weight in the industry is flagging. Perhaps MS felt it best to stop pumping funds into that IP and start looking into other avenues to invest in (first-party studios would be nice). Maybe they're taking pages out of Sony's playbook in this regard. Less emphasis on meaningless DLC and 3rd-party partnerships, and more investment on internal studios.
And they'll buy the one more of their friends and family own. Which is why early marketshare means so much with the online ecosystems that consoles exist in now.
There was a thread about some shop in UK selling Forza bundle for 30 quid less than the normal price, then Titanfall being reduced to 30 quid, so essentially it was a bundle with both games for just the console price.
You're ignoring games though. It's also getting a few good numbers from the fact that they delivered exclusives up front that people want.
Killer Instinct, Forza, Dead Rising, Titanfall....a lot of people bought the console just for those games. Heck, my wife loves and was absolutely excited for Zoo Tycoon. I gave her the option of the X1 or PC copy...and she chose X1. Fine with me as I'm a KI/Forza fan. Nothing to do with loyalty to the brand or loving the 360.
Without those games I would have laughed at the X1 and walked away.
Audible Phonetics
Member
It's really simple.
The user base we are seeing adopting XB1 are 360 loyalist who stuck with the brand despite MS handling everything you could possibly think wrong with the one.
Its front loaded. That momentum will die off, and barely be held up by MS exclusives.
Last Gen MS had the ability to tout multiplats played better on their system, despite their competition being head over them in exclusive game development.
MS doesn't have that advantage this time. It's pretty simple.
- More expensive Console
- Worst performing
- worst 1st party studios
That doesn't bode well for long term productivity.
The amount of money that was dumped into the Kinect and other R&D will have to be recouped somehow, and how they plan to do that is yet to be seen.
The user base we are seeing adopting XB1 are 360 loyalist who stuck with the brand despite MS handling everything you could possibly think wrong with the one.
Its front loaded. That momentum will die off, and barely be held up by MS exclusives.
Last Gen MS had the ability to tout multiplats played better on their system, despite their competition being head over them in exclusive game development.
MS doesn't have that advantage this time. It's pretty simple.
- More expensive Console
- Worst performing
- worst 1st party studios
That doesn't bode well for long term productivity.
The amount of money that was dumped into the Kinect and other R&D will have to be recouped somehow, and how they plan to do that is yet to be seen.
Uno Venova
Banned
I don't know how you could come to the conclusion it's selling as well as they want to price drops and bundles considered.
Option 2 for Sure, Sales are good for X1 and if not for PS4 would be the most successful (Remember that the 360/PS3 came out on their own with no competition/lost sales to competition) so the numbers are even more impressive. But it is all about the Portfolio of the captive audience as the OP has said, THIS and only this Matter most to MS losing in the UK and USA is not in there plans, I expect and aggressive E3 and Xmas for X1 owners!
Not really. There are many people who are getting the console simply based on the games they are interested in that aren't on the PS4.
Anyway, I would have to assume that MS knew that it wouldn't be in the top spot with the original (online check in) policies but who knows. Overall, the system is doing pretty well but I don't think they were prepared for the PS4 being $100 cheaper. Think they assumed the console would be the same price ($500).
I thought months before the Xbox One launched that the system would hit $400 by Xmas of this year and it looks like that will be true considering the recent bundles.
The system could still have higher market share than the Xbox 360 during its gen while still being behind the PS4 due to how much Nintendo has dropped off. I personally think it will happen but we'll see.
Really liking my Xbox One. Very solid recent games as well as great features for getting into games quickly. Much more polished than the Xbox 360 was back in 2005-2006 IMO.
chemicals
Member
this is the only correct perspective. Im surprised too.. I really didnt think the market would support 2 expensive consoles this time.
BuggeryBugz
Member
An easy choice for you maybe but I'm pretty sure most people buy a specific console because it has the games that they want to play on it. MS just made it harder for people to justify their purchase because of the things you mentioned.
zackmorris
Member
No, but I don't think they were expecting the PS4 to launch at 400 either.
zackmorris
Member
Maybe but right now neither console have exclusives that would make you really need to own one over the other. So for now the cheaper one, that runs multiplatform games better and offers a free game every month seems like it would be the better option.
I don't see any way they can keep it below 60-40 worldwide given how weak the demand is outside of North America.
BuggeryBugz
Member
It would be the better option for people who don't care about exclusives. Those who are buying one console or the other, are buying for the exclusives that they know will be coming only to that specific consoles (halo, gears, uncharted, infamous etc)
Dr.Schlomo
Banned
Nice opinions.
Disaster Nebraska
Banned
So you're saying "dem casuals" who bolstered the Wii's installed base are the same sort of people who will buy an X1 or a PS4?
Nope.
The notion that X1 will have a higher marketshare than 360 is laughable. 360 had everything going for it, including a headstart, and it managed to pull 80 million (probably 85-90m by the time it leaves store shelves). X1 has none of 360's advantages, and with economic times being the way they are, not only are we going to see a sharp decrease in multi-console owners, but the value of a cheaper console will be magnified.
If X1 managed to pull 40 million worldwide (75% of that in UK/NA, most likely) I would call that a victory, considering what they're working with.
I saw that number often in the NPD thread, so I assumed that Gaf consensus was ~4million.
Yes please! I'm tired of getting 1 month late DLC. I'm just not hyped for it by then.