Of the 34 Senate seats up for grabs this fall, Democrats currently hold only 10, and most of those are extremely safe. This means that theyll be able to play significantly more offense than defense ahead of Election Day. According to the Cook Political Reports most recent ratingspublished in Marchonly three of the 10 Democratic seats are in any danger of falling into Republican hands: The races in Nevada and Colorado are expected to be competitive, while the race for Barbara Boxers soon-to-be-vacant seat in California has the potential to become competitive down the road. Things are much less rosy for Republicans. According to Cook, the GOP is currently at risk of losing seven seats, and another six hold the potential to end up in the competitive column before its all said and done.
And thats where Trump comes in. Theres already been plenty of handwringing among Republicans about the Donalds drag on down-ballot races, and justifiably so. The rank and file will need to decide whether to run away from Trump and risk alienating his base, or run toward him and risk alienating everyone else. Right now, many are trying to have it both ways. New Hampshires Kelly Ayotteup for re-election in one of the seven Senate races seen as a toss-upis among those tying themselves in knots to play both sides. As her spokesman put it to the New York Times recently, Ayotte will support Trump but not endorse him. (Say no more, senator!) Toss in concerns that Trump will put the GOP fundraising apparatus at a significant disadvantage, and that he will depress turnout among Republicans this fall (when turnout models will already favor Democrats), and its easy to see the Senate map turning blue.
