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[*Splinter]

Redacted was seen N2, 3, and 4 and can't be an even/odd night Ninja.

...

 

[Ty4on]

Thanks for your table.

But my question about role claiming was directed towards Ty4on.

Do you think it'll benefit hope?

All I'm asking for is a reason not to vote for you. Contributing to the conversation when you have time would help with that.

 

[CornBurrito]

Hang on, I thought I was just confused because I've been staying out of the fight club speculation, but your argument isn't making sense at all now.

You say it doesn't matter what Despair targeted those night, but then make assumptions about who they targeted and seem to work from those assumptions, is this part relevant or not?

If not, can you re-explain your argument for me? Right now it seems you've made a circle and come back to "AB and redacted are PRs". Now I would agree that AB is pretty suspect right now and maybe redacted too, but you seem a lot more sure of them than I am, what did I miss?

We have no start or end points for the kills. Most of us also have no start points for redacted, and (as far as I know) no one has end points for them.
We also don't have end points for Saw (somewhere West) or the lovers.
So it seems like we have a lot less info than you are suggesting? (Or I've just lost track)

Yeah sorry I derped for a second and forgot that the key thing about the Ninja is that he never shows up on fight club roster, if he exists.

Anyway with the Ninja in mind:

Czartim was murderer on N1.
I believe the Ninja can act every other night.
The Ninja, if they exist, started appearing on N2.
N3 would be a different Despair. Someone likely not seen on N1 or N2.
N4 would be the Ninja.

In which case, we could find Despair by looking for who showed up on N3 but not on the other nights.

If there is no Ninja in the game:

Czartime was murderer on N1.
Same person was likely the murderer on N2,N3,N4.

 

[*Splinter]

Yeah sorry I derped for a second and forgot that the key thing about the Ninja is that he never shows up on fight club roster, if he exists.

Anyway with the Ninja in mind:

Czartim was murderer on N1.
I believe the Ninja can act every other night.
The Ninja, if they exist, started appearing on N2.
N3 would be a different Despair. Someone likely not seen on N1 or N2.
N4 would be the Ninja.

In which case, we could find Despair by looking for who showed up on N3 but not on the other nights.

If there is no Ninja in the game:

Czartime was murderer on N1.
Same person was likely the murderer on N2,N3,N4.

Thanks that does make sense now, I had lost track a bit

 

[CornBurrito]

Thanks that does make sense now, I had lost track a bit

Me too, don't worry. I'm super tired and so when you rebrought up the Ninja I initially was just "oh they'd have been seen only on N2 and N4"... because I forgot what being a Ninja meant lol.

 

[Royal_Flush]

Anyway with the Ninja in mind:

Czartim was murderer on N1.
I believe the Ninja can act every other night.
The Ninja, if they exist, started appearing on N2.
N3 would be a different Despair. Someone likely not seen on N1 or N2.
N4 would be the Ninja.

In which case, we could find Despair by looking for who showed up on N3 but not on the other nights.

If there is no Ninja in the game:

Czartime was murderer on N1.
Same person was likely the murderer on N2,N3,N4.

So you are saying that depending on weather you think there is a Ninja or not you want to Lynch Pau's -redacted- or Sawneeks' secret person (I forgot what sh actually called them)?

 

[kingkitty]

Do you think it'll benefit hope?

All I'm asking for is a reason not to vote for you. Contributing to the conversation when you have time would help with that.

correct me if I'm wrong but this sounds like you're leaning no.

if so then I'll post my analysis tomorrow morning, instead of role claiming right now (which might have led to an a fun conversation).

 

[sandalphon]

An unexpected but welcomed result, another night absent of Hope deaths! Very promising! I have yet to formulate where I am standing as at Day 5's situations, but I shall update my reads before the day ends, as per usual.

We are doing very well, I believe. Let us build upon our successes and investigate our candidates thoroughly today.

 

[CornBurrito]

Might not be relevant to your suspicions but it's relevant to everyone else. Where is your proof they attacked the Lovers on Nights 3 and 4? Knowing who exactly Despair targets makes it way easier to find Despair. " Oh, X died so someone from Despair had to be at X's room to make the kill, meaning whoever was near there might be Despair!". They 'might' have gone there or they 'might' be here isn't as concrete or convincing.

also possible ninja. Schrodinger's Ninja.

You aren't going to get proof. However, I've presented my argument.

There's 3 possibilities that come to mind for why no murder on N3 and N4.

A. Despair is simply not going out and killing anyone.
B. Someone, a Blocker, guessed correctly two nights in a row. They blocked mafia two times in a row.
C. Despair targeted a location. Nobody was in that location by the end of the night.

A is absurd to me. I'm not considering it likely.

B when taken alone is also extremely unlikely.

C means that some role has to leave their room, and end up in a different room at the end of the night. Pau/Typhon have let most of us believe they are Lovers. Zipped brought up the idea that they probably stay in either one of their two rooms during the Night, or sneak off to a random facility during the Night. Admittedly this is a fuckload of assumptions. But it makes sense to me. This is also why I dont want Pau or Typhon to state what direction they go to. Because that could tell Despair more about how they move at night.

There is another possibility that is a combo of B and C. Blocker exists and targeted Czartim on N3 since his cover was blown and he was the obvious person for Despair to send out. Then Blocker could have been totally wrong on N4, but the block on N3 caused Despair to be unable to figure out Pau/Typhon's pattern and they missed on N4.

You're correct in that I am working under a lot of assumptions. My evidence isn't super strong. But that's all I've got.

 

[Swamped]

correct me if I'm wrong but this sounds like you're leaning no.

if so then I'll post my analysis tomorrow morning, instead of role claiming right now (which might have led to an a fun conversation).

Well, are you playing to win or to have fun? If you are hope and if you roleclaim, can both of those goals be achieved simultaneously? You know, I'm metagaming a little here but sometimes i feel like you're one of those crazy players and we serious ones are holding you back lol.

Do whatever you think is right

 

[CornBurrito]

So you are saying that depending on weather you think there is a Ninja or not you want to Lynch Pau's -redacted- or Sawneeks' secret person (I forgot what sh actually called them)?

I think if there is no Ninja, -redacted- is the strongest bet we have.

I'm unsure if -redacted- is the same person in Sawneeks/Pau's case. It might be two different people. I don't have enough information to say.

Also I'm just floating this idea now. Has anyone humored the possibility that Pau/Typhon are Despair? I've put a huge amount of faith in Pau/Typhon because they role claimed at around the same time Czartim did and I couldn't see that big a conspiracy being true. But then again, the fact that they've pretty much made me think of them as unquestionably Hope worries me.

Granted I felt the same about Crab, so I'm reluctant to repeat past mistakes by not trusting them.

 

[*Splinter]

I've considered it, I'm more interested in the possibility of an Evil Lover (or whatever it's called).

 

[Sawneeks]

You aren't going to get proof. However, I've presented my argument.

There's 3 possibilities that come to mind for why no murder on N3 and N4.

A. Despair is simply not going out and killing anyone.
B. Someone, a Blocker, guessed correctly two nights in a row. They blocked mafia two times in a row.
C. Despair targeted a location. Nobody was in that location by the end of the night.

A is absurd to me. I'm not considering it likely.

B when taken alone is also extremely unlikely.

C means that some role has to leave their room, and end up in a different room at the end of the night. Pau/Typhon have let most of us believe they are Lovers. Zipped brought up the idea that they probably stay in either one of their two rooms during the Night, or sneak off to a random facility during the Night. Admittedly this is a fuckload of assumptions. But it makes sense to me. This is also why I dont want Pau or Typhon to state what direction they go to. Because that could tell Despair more about how they move at night.

There is another possibility that is a combo of B and C. Blocker exists and targeted Czartim on N3 since his cover was blown and he was the obvious person for Despair to send out. Then Blocker could have been totally wrong on N4, but the block on N3 caused Despair to be unable to figure out Pau/Typhon's pattern and they missed on N4.

You're correct in that I am working under a lot of assumptions. My evidence isn't super strong. But that's all I've got.

That explains a lot actually, thank you.

And while I do love game mechanic discussion I think we are getting off track. Again. It's definitely a good place to look but unless the name of redacted is given out there isn't much we can go towards right now.

I'm still waiting on more from TL21 but I would suggest that people who have suspicions towards others due to what was said/not said to start bringing it up. We can only go so far mechanics-wise and we have to start figuring out who to go after for today.

 

[Swamped]

I really want to go through my 'under the radar' players posts but it's so difficult on mobile

Btw, i googled Mafia win conditions, and generally you get that particular win-con (the 'eliminate all players') when there's a serial killer or vigilante in play. Im pretty certain we don't have either, but maybe we have an X-shot of one of those, and they are saving up their kills. I dont think it's a vig, because that person surely would have attacked CzarTim on N3. Another possibility is an arsonist though.

 

[Swamped]

^ the reason i bring that up is because neither of those roles are helpful to Hope. Still, i think we have better things to think about today, and i just wanted to bring up other possibilities. Also, tbh, in getting tired of the PR talk lol.

 

[Sawneeks]

I think if there is no Ninja, -redacted- is the strongest bet we have.

I'm unsure if -redacted- is the same person in Sawneeks/Pau's case. It might be two different people. I don't have enough information to say.

Also I'm just floating this idea now. Has anyone humored the possibility that Pau/Typhon are Despair? I've put a huge amount of faith in Pau/Typhon because they role claimed at around the same time Czartim did and I couldn't see that big a conspiracy being true. But then again, the fact that they've pretty much made me think of them as unquestionably Hope worries me.

Granted I felt the same about Crab, so I'm reluctant to repeat past mistakes by not trusting them.

I've toyed with the idea. I've also seen that idea of one of the Lovers being Despair float around too.

I find it unlikely that both are Despair ( wouldn't the real Hope Lovers counterclaim them? ) but the possibility that one is doesn't seem overly far-fetched. It would definitely throw a wrench in things as a lot of our mechanics-talk is based on Pau and what she saw, something she could easily lie about if she were Despair. I also don't think we have had any indication that Ty4on has moved?

I don't know, it's a weird area. Pau is only still around because of Ty4on's claim too as they 'confirm each other' and whatnot.

 

[CornBurrito]

These roleclaims are getting asinine.

Role claims:

Perceived as Hope or directly Hope claimed:

1. Makai - claims Hope aligned lucky student. Also claims another lucky student exists.

Other lucky student not roleclaiming makes me a bit suspicious. Makai claimed not being able to die at night was his ability. This prevents Hope from risking voting him out until late game. However he also claims another lucky student exists that has a similar role PM. Why doesn't this person confirm? What's the danger if they also can't be killed by Despair? I'm starting to doubt whether a second Lucky student exists.

2. Sawneeks. Claims Hope.
3. Pau - potentially Hope Lover? Though neither she nor Typhon confirmed. They just let us believe that. Which is why I'm actually starting to have doubts.
4. Typhon - potentially Hope Lover.
5. AbsolutBro - Claims Hope sleepwalker
6. Kingkitty - ???

Known Hope:

7. Salvapot - Hope Switcher
8. kgtrep - Hope Debate
9. Crab - Hope Nurse


Known Despair:

10. Czartim - Despair Override

???:

11. Other Lucky student


That's 11 people with power roles. The game started with what? 23 players? Do mafia games typically have this many PR roles? Meanwhile of those 11, 3 are known Hope. 1 is known Despair. Of the 7 remaining, 6 seem to be or claim to be Hope. 1 is unknown.

That's flat out impossible imo.

 

[CornBurrito]

I've toyed with the idea. I've also seen that idea of one of the Lovers being Despair float around too.

I find it unlikely that both are Despair ( wouldn't the real Hope Lovers counterclaim them? ) but the possibility that one is doesn't seem overly far-fetched. It would definitely throw a wrench in things as a lot of our mechanics-talk is based on Pau and what she saw, something she could easily lie about if she were Despair. I also don't think we have had any indication that Ty4on has moved?

I don't know, it's a weird area. Pau is only still around because of Ty4on's claim too as they 'confirm each other' and whatnot.

We might not have real Lovers. Pau and Typhon could be banking off the fact that nobody would expect another huge bold lie after Czartim's charade. And until Typhon backed her up, she WAS strongly suspected. Why didn't she role claim and instead let it fall to Typhon? It is possible both are Despair, and neither of them are Lovers.

The problem with this idea is that You and AB have seen them roaming at night. I mean it is possible they actually are Lovers and Despair based (Typhon said he was sure of Pau's alignment, but never outright stated what the alignment was). Or that they have opposite alignments (but that seems dumb). Or they might possibly be Neutral and they win if they are the final 2 left in the game.

 

[*Splinter]

That reminds me, we also assumed that AB is hope. Could we have a Despair aligned sleepwalker? To me that would suggest:
a) ninja exists
b) ninja doesn't see people in the hall, so AB is Despair's main source of info.

Also, a slightly humorous Evil Lover set up:
Pau seems to be the only one moving. So what if Hope-aligned Pau has shared everything with Evil Lover Ty4on? In this scenario (and again with a blind ninja), Hope-aligned Pau would be Despair's main source of infoation. Pretty evil right? (I think this more humorous than likely)

Gotta agree with Sawneeks though, all this speculation is going nowhere at the moment.

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

Corn, you just reminded me of something.

Hey Makai, are you %100 sure that your lucky buddy is hope?

 

[*Splinter]

Or that they have opposite alignments (but that seems dumb).

I think it is possible for this to be the case without the Hope aligned lover knowing about it (I called it Evil Lover, I'm not sure of the usual name).

 

[CornBurrito]

Oh and lets not forget that Czar's PM suggested there's a neutral force in play.

But that neutral force does not seem to kill to win. Or they're purposefully not killing in order to avoid fight club attention. Though that raises some questions. Like how'd they know to avoid using their power on N1 when nobody knew about fight club?

@Splinter: I've considered AB as Despair, and frankly I'm not feeling it. I believe I listed my reasons for last game day. Nothing has changed much since then about AB to change my opinion on him.

Anyway I'm going to let the discussion move away from all this fight club talk.

I'll perhaps spend some time discussing people who I'm suspicious of. There's Tl21xx. Unlike the other inactive people, he's posted just enough to not get pinged. There's Sawneeks, but I actually feel my suspicion of her fading away at the moment. I'd be fine with a kingkitty vote. And then I was sort of highly suspicious of *Splinter a day ago but... eh. I'll need to revisit that.

 

[kingkitty]

1. Makai - claims Hope aligned lucky student. Also claims another lucky student exists.

Other lucky student not roleclaiming makes me a bit suspicious. Makai claimed not being able to die at night was his ability. This prevents Hope from risking voting him out until late game. However he also claims another lucky student exists that has a similar role PM. Why doesn't this person confirm? What's the danger if they also can't be killed by Despair? I'm starting to doubt whether a second Lucky student exists.

You ever considered that the lucky student is waiting as long as possible to not role claim in the hope of being attacked by despair?

 

[CornBurrito]

You ever considered that the lucky student is waiting as long as possible to not role claim in the hope of being attacked by despair?

Honestly? No.

 

[kingkitty]

Honestly? No.

lol well it's probably that reason...or makai is lying.

But honestly that's dumb if he's lying. When he role claimed the first time, he didn't even mention the existence of another lucky student. He could have just stopped there, but in another day phase I think he talked about how there was another lucky student who could help his claim. Seems like a pretty bad, unnecessary bluff to make.

anyways, whoever the lucky student is, he or she has to consider several things why there hasn't been a night attack yet:

1) despair only seems to give a shit about people who are actively walking thru the halls

2) despair have targeted the lucky student but then...they were role blocked? (not so sure on this one) and thus he/she + makai were not notified of any attack.

3) the lucky student is question is someone who despair thinks the town will kill off eventually, so why bother

4) they figured out the lucky student

5) they were going to targeted the lucky student on a different night.

 

[*Splinter]

lol well it's probably that reason...or makai is lying.

But honestly that's dumb if he's lying. When he role claimed the first time, he didn't even mention the existence of another lucky student. He could have just stopped there, but in another day phase I think he talked about how there was another lucky student who could help his claim. Seems like a pretty bad, unnecessary bluff to make.

I don't know, that extra detail made me trust his claim more than I had been at that point. There was no need for anyone else to confirm whether it was true or not, and anyone going for Makai could also be accused of trying to 'out' the 2nd luckster (as they might self-reveal to back up Makai's claim).

It was either the truth or a very clever lie.

 

[Ty4on]

The problem with this idea is that You and AB have seen them roaming at night. I mean it is possible they actually are Lovers and Despair based (Typhon said he was sure of Pau's alignment, but never outright stated what the alignment was). Or that they have opposite alignments (but that seems dumb). Or they might possibly be Neutral and they win if they are the final 2 left in the game.

Apart from it being wrong

The reason I trust Pau is because she is the only one except myself I know is hope. Isn't that right, Pau?

It also doesn't make sense. If I'm despair of course I would lie and say we were hope.

It is good to doubt people, but my sole defence is that the roleclaim helped us get CzarTim instead of yet another hope player. Had Pau been killed instead we would all have gone "Yay CzarTim for helping us catch despair" so unless Pau is super important it makes no sense to put even more despair out in the open.

 

[CornBurrito]

Apart from it being wrong

It also doesn't make sense. If I'm despair of course I would lie and say we were hope.

It is good to doubt people, but my sole defence is that the roleclaim helped us get CzarTim instead of yet another hope player. Had Pau been killed instead we would all have gone "Yay CzarTim for helping us catch despair" so unless Pau is super important it makes no sense to put even more despair out in the open.

God my memory is so bad... sorry.

 

[CornBurrito]

Also I was more just humoring the idea that you and Pau are Despair. Unlike my "Crab is Despair" thing I don't strongly believe it. For now.

 

[kingkitty]

It was either the truth or a very clever lie.

for now, I'm firmly on #teamtruth (until I get later reads that tell me makai has been a gutsy despair liar this whole time...but the way he and Czar have fought each other tells me he's probably not despair.).

in the end, you have to wonder, if you're the lucky student, what would you do? Would you role claim on Day 5 to help support makai, would you hold off in the hope of getting hit by despair?

if I was the lucky student, I'd probably hold off as long as possible, unless a) I'm about to get eliminated or b) makai is about to get eliminated

it's been good to see despair not kill anyone for two days in a row, the thought of forcing them to miss another night would be pretty tempting. (unless makai is a dirty despair liar).

 

[Makai]

Corn, you just reminded me of something.

Hey Makai, are you %100 sure that your lucky buddy is hope?

The way my role is worded, it would be really bizarre if they are Despair or neutral. I know somebody said they think one of us is Despair based on the source material, but I just can't square that with the role PM.

 

[Christina Mackenzie]

Hi again guys, just some quick thoughts on today's discussion. I'm still trying to play catch up.

All this talk about Hope/Despair players being tied together reminds me of the Animal Crossing mafia game where both a Town and Mafia player where living together in the same house and the only way to get rid of the Mafia was to evict them both.

I don't know if Launchpad is as twisted as Karkador to come up with such a setup though.

 

[Pau]

Sorry for not answering or posting stuff like I said. I came home to fin that someone who will not be named had accidentally started a baby fire. We've been cleaning up fire extinguisher residue for the past couple of hours. Will see y'all tomorrow.

 

[Christina Mackenzie]

I'm not interested in your role unless you are Despair. Then please roleclaim.

I don't have fancy maps, but here is my table with all movements. Top row (before the free row) indicates the target room. "UP" means Unknown Person

Royal_Flush, looking at your table I noticed on night 1, Sawneeks saw CzarTim but under CzarTim's name you didn't mention Sawneeks. Was that a mistake or something you got from CzarTim's post cause I can't find his list if he ever mentioned it.

 

[Royal_Flush]

Royal_Flush, looking at your table I noticed on night 1, Sawneeks saw CzarTim but under CzarTim's name you didn't mention Sawneeks. Was that a mistake or something you got from CzarTim's post cause I can't find his list if he ever mentioned it.

CzarTim never made a list on who he saw. On D3 (or D2?) AB outed Pau and CzarTim. CzarTim then rolled with seeing Pau and AB. He never confirmed anyone else. There is however post 2219 where he states he saw other people. My table only consists of encounters that are explicitly claimed by the acting persons. No assumptions. I wouldn't put too much trust into CzarTim anyway...

 

[*Splinter]

Hi

Hi Christina. Since you are playing catch up, most people will probably give you a days grace, as is tradition.

¯_(&#12484_/¯

I'd like your reads on the following players, please:
CornBurrito
Terrabyte
AbsoluteBro
KingKitty

With reasoning, obviously

Also I'd like to know who you think are Despair

 

[Dude Guy]

I had no idea what mafia was before entering this thread, and I found myself reading every single post here and now I'm sitting here like

Spoiler

This shit is fascinating, I love it.

 

[*Splinter]

I had no idea what mafia was before entering this thread, and I found myself reading every single post here and now I'm sitting here like

Spoiler

This shit is fascinating, I love it.

http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=1080623&page=79
^General sign up thread for future games, if you're interested!

 

[Royal_Flush]

Jesus Christ, *Splinter I had this exact same post written up, refreshed the page and then you came.

Spoiler

I think we found our Ninja

 

[*Splinter]

Run Dude Guy... Run while you still can

 

[Christina Mackenzie]

Hi Christina. Since you are playing catch up, most people will probably give you a days grace, as is tradition.

¯_(&#12484_/¯

I'd like your reads on the following players, please:
CornBurrito
Terrabyte
AbsoluteBro
KingKitty

With reasoning, obviously

Also I'd like to know who you think are Despair

Hi Splinter,

My thoughts below...

CornBurrito
Sometimes I have trouble following his train of thought but he does ask questions and comes up with scenarios so I will believe Hope.

Terrabyte20xx
I believe he was one of the vocal defenders for Czar before he was outed as Despair IIRC. May have been genuinely duped by Czar's play. Can't really find a good reason believe otherwise.

AbsoluteBro
Was in franconp's room the night he was killed and should automatically be suspicious but since claiming to be a sleepwalker everyone seems to trust him. Should be down as Hope but my gut tells me to be cautious. Not based on any evidence but just from my readings of previous season's games.

kingkitty
Not quite sure what to make of him, I feel like he's working by himself away from the group (not necessarily a bad thing). I might be wrong about this cause I can't remember much of his posts, sorry kitty.

Don't think I'll post my Despair list just yet, I'm still trying to find better reasons for suspicions that aren't based on isolated cases of perceived "Despair" play.

Hope that's enough for you.

 

[Swamped]

I'm liking this Romeo and Juliet style lovers speculation. It's a cool idea. Not sure if it's the case here.

Pau, are you 200% aware of Ty4on's alignment?

Tbh, the reason this idea is intriguing me is that i haven't paid close attention to Ty4on at all, especially after the soft claim D3. But i was following Pau before since i was suspicious of her posts. I do think she's not Despair though.

 

[Swamped]

^ that's supposed to read 100 % btw lol.

Also, no rush in getting back to us Pau. Just tell Karkador to be careful in the future

I will probably vote a fight club member today, just to see if my suspicions are on the right track. Leaning towards AB for reasons stated D4, nothing has really swayed my opinion. May as well put it down for the record. I doubt anything too drastic will happen this day phase, but if it does i shall take that into account.

VOTE: AbsolutBro

 

[kingkitty]

Some people I don't think (based on percentage of certainty) could be on the same despair side.

CzarTim v Makai (100 percent at this point)

Day 1 and 2 is full of Czar heat on Makai.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174234135&postcount=819
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174234261&postcount=820
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174781149&postcount=1311
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=174813909&postcount=1431

Terrabyte v Rest (25 percent)

(Day 3 - Rest says Terra is a man of fluff posting quality) http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175569627&postcount=2034

Swamped v Makai (72.12 percent)

(Day 2 - doubts Makai's role claim) http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175153329&postcount=1864
(Day 3 - starts off the day with a Makai vote) http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175620609&postcount=2060

goshu v Makai (80 percent)

(Day 3 - Makai puts heat on goshu) http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175678380&postcount=2109
(Day 3 - More heat) http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175689354&postcount=2162

~Czar v Pau v Ty4phoon~ (65 percent)

Imagine if Pau is despair, which means Ty4on is despair. A conservative estimate would say there's at least 4 despair in this game. So on Day 3...Czar puts his neck on the line (but he got caught anyhow, although crab had to die). Then we got Pau getting outed by AB. And then Ty4on covering Pau through a fake role claim. Three despair pooping all over themselves over what was a simple plan of CzarTim earning himself the school's trust through a convenient one-shot cop claim. Nope nope nope I can't logically square in my brain. Too much boldness, can't compute.

Then we get posts like this on Day 3 http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175686993&postcount=2145 , http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=175777698&postcount=2248
Pau puts a bit of doubt on Makai's belief Czartim is hope. So I have to think about the plan here if somehow all three people are despair. Having Pau throw CzarTim under the bus could make sense. Czar even invites people to kill him throughout the whole day. And of course, he has a special power that overrides what the school decides. So whats the point of Tie4yon. Why put another despair member in the line of fire, directly connecting him to Pau. I suppose it's a good way to completely stomp suspicion, but the risk of the paper trail is a bit much...and it could've easily blown up in their faces.

But hey, maybe they're truly bold fuckers. My gut leans no however.

AB v Pau v Ty4son (68.2 percent)

AB's whole, wretched plan on Day 3 was to take out Pau. And if Pau was hope, then take him and Czar. If they're all despair (along with CzarTim)...what is the point here? #yolo? maybe it's yolo, but I don't think so.This despair combo is unlikely in my eyes.

Gut reads:

Kalor: Looking through Days 1 - 3 again, he is simply gliding among the waves. Anonymous as a bee. My gut says he's leaning despair who simply wants to live and not make any bold moves, or bold anything, or even look too disagreeable. I also didn't see any true blue friction between Kalor and scum Czartim (I could be wrong on this, might've skipped over something).

oh yeah Sawneeks: She's trying to look helpful but I dunno. I'm leaning I dunno . I'll give her a more enthusiastic read later in this day phase.

Some other thoughts:
This might have been answered already, but what was AB, and Pau + Ty4on's official role titles? If you guys didn't say your official title, I'm curious why not at this point.

It's up to you all if you want to do that, unless you already did!

 

[kingkitty]

^ that's supposed to read 100 % btw lol.

Also, no rush in getting back to us Pau. Just tell Karkador to be careful in the future

I will probably vote a fight club member today, just to see if my suspicions are on the right track. Leaning towards AB for reasons stated D4, nothing has really swayed my opinion. May as well put it down for the record. I doubt anything too drastic will happen this day phase, but if it does i shall take that into account.

VOTE: AbsolutBro

So you think, perhaps, CzarTim was trying to make a cover story for his despair brother AB with that whole Day 3 shenanigans?

 

[Swamped]

So you think, perhaps, CzarTim was trying to make a cover story for his despair brother AB with that whole Day 3 shenanigans?

That's what i believe. Also, AB has lasted this long. If Despair saw him N1, wouldn't they take him out on one of the subsequent nights? Especially after he roleclaimed sleepwalker, i feel like that's an unpredictable role that could roam anywhere at night and potentially bump into anyone. Isn't that dangerous for Despair PRs?

I also agree with you that Makai is most certainly Hope.

 

[Swamped]

Some other thoughts:
This might have been answered already, but what was AB, and Pau + Ty4on's official role titles? If you guys didn't say your official title, I'm curious why not at this point.

It's up to you all if you want to do that, unless you already did!

Also, i think you spelled Ty's name wrong here. Looks correct everywhere else in your post.

 

[Ty4on]

Also, i think you spelled Ty's name wrong here. Looks correct everywhere else in your post.

T_T

I almost wondered if he wrote something in code with those.

Some other thoughts:
This might have been answered already, but what was AB, and Pau + Ty4on's official role titles? If you guys didn't say your official title, I'm curious why not at this point.

It's up to you all if you want to do that, unless you already did!

My role title is complete fluff so I thought of using it for a coded message you'd be able to decode when I died, but I'm not sure how legal that is.

 

[Ty4on]

That's what i believe. Also, AB has lasted this long. If Despair saw him N1, wouldn't they take him out on one of the subsequent nights? Especially after he roleclaimed sleepwalker, i feel like that's an unpredictable role that could roam anywhere at night and potentially bump into anyone. Isn't that dangerous for Despair PRs?

AB said that he spent the night in the rooms he visited, but if that's the case he lied about N1 (because he stayed at franconp's room and survived).

Source:

It's possible the Despair players are targeting the Cafeteria/Workshop/Pool/Basketball Court in hopes of getting more than one player, and not just the alleged lovers. I wander, they could randomly kill me as well.

 

[*Splinter]

Terrabyte20xx
I believe he was one of the vocal defenders for Czar before he was outed as Despair IIRC. May have been genuinely duped by Czar's play. Can't really find a good reason believe otherwise.

and in conclusion... ?
Seems you like you identified him defending Czar, then threw that out as you believe he was tricked, leaving you with nothing. Nothing else worth mentioning from his 4 and a half days in this game? No overall gut feeling on his alignment?

AbsoluteBro
Was in franconp's room the night he was killed and should automatically be suspicious but since claiming to be a sleepwalker everyone seems to trust him. Should be down as Hope but my gut tells me to be cautious. Not based on any evidence but just from my readings of previous season's games.

Not following you here. First you say his sleepwalker claim was given a little more trust than it deserved (I agree), but then you "should be Hope"?? Why? What line of reasoning did I miss here? You also backtrack slightly and say you still don't trust him, I don't see much justification for this either but I guess it would be hard for me to argue against "previous game knowledge" that I don't have...

kingkitty
Not quite sure what to make of him, I feel like he's working by himself away from the group (not necessarily a bad thing). I might be wrong about this cause I can't remember much of his posts, sorry kitty.

Admittedly I only included Kitty as a difficult one, but still I'm disappointed with this non answer. You can search his posts, there aren't that many (and they're quite interesting), should be at least something in there to comment on and give a vague alignment read.

Don't think I'll post my Despair list just yet, I'm still trying to find better reasons for suspicions that aren't based on isolated cases of perceived "Despair" play.

Doesn't have to be solid, I'll accept ""gut feels"" for this part but I'd like at least some idea of who you think are Despair.

Hope that's enough for you.

Lol, nice try, but that was the easy part.

I'd also like to know your opinion on ZippedPinhead and Swamped