[XB1] 310K
[PS4] 220K
[3DS] 151K
[WIU] 27k
Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of September and October. This is where comparing weekly averages is better than simple month to month because September is a 5 week month while October is only 4. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for October to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.
Code:
2010
Xbox 360 September: 484K / 5 = 96,800
Xbox 360 October: 325K / 4 = 81,250
Weekly average down 16%
PS3 September: 312K / 5 = 62,400
PS3 October: 250K / 4 = 62,500
Weekly average up 0%
Wii September: 254K / 5 = 50,800
Wii October: 232K / 4 = 58,000
Weekly average up 14%
Code:
Notable Events in October
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Fallout: New Vegas [2 weeks] [679k]
Fable III [1 week] [580k]
Medal of Honor [3 weeks]
[u]PS3[/u]
Fallout: New Vegas [2 weeks] [331k]
Medal of Honor [3 weeks]
[u]Wii[/u]
Just Dance 2 [3 weeks] [286k]
Wii Party [4 weeks] [<<150k]
Kirby's Epic Yarn [2 weeks] [~100k]
Code:
2011
Xbox 360 September: 438K / 5 = 87,600
Xbox 360 October: 393K / 4 = 98,250
Weekly average up 12%
PS3 September: 374K / 5 = 74,800
PS3 October: 245K / 4 = 61,250
Weekly average down 18%
Wii September: 240K / 5 = 48,000
Wii October: 249K / 4 = 62,250
Weekly average up 30%
Code:
Notable Events in October
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Battlefield 3 [1 week]
Batman: Arkham City [2 weeks]
NBA 2K12 [4 weeks]
Rage [4 weeks]
Forza Motorsport 4 [3 weeks]
[u]PS3[/u]
Battlefield 3 [1 week]
Batman: Arkham City [2 weeks]
NBA 2K12 [4 weeks]
Rage [4 weeks]
Dark Souls [4 weeks]
[u]Wii[/u]
Just Dance 3 [4 weeks]
Kirby's Return to Dreamland [1 week]
Code:
2012
Xbox 360 September: 270K / 5 = 54,000
Xbox 360 October: 270K / 4 = 67,500
Weekly average up 25%
PS3 September: 201K / 5 = 40,200
PS3 October: 170K / 4 = 42,500
Weekly average up 6%
Wii September: 77k / 5 = 15,400
Wii October: 45k / 4 = 11,250
Weekly average down 27%
Code:
Notable Events in October
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Kinect Adventures + Kinect Disney Adventures 4GB Kinect Holiday Bundle $299 [3 weeks]
Price cut to $249 the following week
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim + Forza Motorsport 4 250GB Bundle $299 [3 weeks]
Price cut to $249 the following week
NBA 2K13 [4 weeks]
Medal of Honor: Warfighter [1 week]
Resident Evil 6 [4 weeks]
Dishonored [3 weeks]
[u]PS3[/u]
NBA 2K13 [4 weeks]
Resident Evil 6 [4 weeks]
Medal of Honor: Warfighter [1 week]
Dishonored [3 weeks]
[u]Wii[/u]
Wii Sports + Wii Sports Resort + Wii Remote Plus Black bundle $129 [2 weeks]
Code:
2013
Xbox 360 September: 173K / 5 = 34,600
Xbox 360 October: 166K / 4 =41,500
Weekly average up 20%
PS3 September: 209K / 5 = 41,800
PS3 October: 119K / 4 = 29,750
Weekly average down 29%
Wii September: 39k / 5 = 7,800
Wii October: 34k / 4 = 8,500
Weekly average up 9%
Wii U September: 95k / 5 = 19,000
Wii U October: 50k / 4 = 12,500
Weekly average down 34%
Code:
Notable Events in October
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Halo 4 + Tomb Raider 250GB bundle $249 [3 weeks]
Kinect Adventures + Kinect Sports: Season Two + Kinect 4GB bundle $249 [3 weeks]
Forza Horizon + Kinect Adventures + Kinect Sports: Season Two + Kinect 250GB bundle $349 [3 weeks]
Battlefield 4 [1 week]
Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag [1 week]
Batman: Arkham Origins [2 weeks]
[u]PS3[/u]
Battlefield 4 [1 week]
Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag [1 week]
Batman: Arkham Origins [2 weeks]
Code:
2014
Xbox 360 September: 74k / 5 = 14,800
Xbox 360 October: 63k / 4 =15,750
Weekly average up 6%
Xbox One September: 284K / 5 = 56,800
Xbox One October: 168K / 4 =42,000
Weekly average down 26%
PS3 September: 46k / 5 = 9,200
PS3 October: 35k / 4 = 8,750
Weekly average down 5%
PS4 September: 538K / 5 = 107,600
PS4 October: 297K / 4 = 74,250
Weekly average down 31%
Wii September: 15k / 5 = 3,000
Wii October: 13k / 4 = 3,250
Weekly average up 8%
Wii U September: 87k / 5 = 17,400
Wii U October: 69k / 4 = 17,250
Weekly average down 1%
Code:
Notable Events In October
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Call of Duty: Ghosts + Call of Duty: Black Ops II 500GB Blue model bundle $249 [Walmart] [4 weeks]
Kinect Adventures + Kinect Sports + Forza Horizon + Kinect 4GB bundle $249 [Target] [4 weeks]
[u]Xbox One[/u]
Price cut announced for November $349 [October 27th]
Sunset Overdrive White model 500GB bundle $399 [1 week]
NBA 2K15 [4 weeks]
Sunset Overdrive [1 week] [110k]
The Evil Within [3 weeks] [103k]
[u]PS4[/u]
NBA 2K15 [4 weeks]
The Evil Within [3 weeks] [175k]
Code:
2015
Xbox 360/PS3/Wii = Basically dead (and some months have not leaked yet for 2015)
Xbox One September: 292,400 / 5 = 58,480
Xbox One October: 303,000 / 4 = 75,750
Weekly average up 30%
PS4 September: 353,500 / 5 = 70,700
PS4 October: 275K / 4 = 68,750
Weekly average down 3%
Wii U September: 88,300 / 5 = 17,660
Wii U October: 65,000 / 4 = 16,250
Weekly average down 8%
Code:
Notable Events in October
[u]Xbox One[/u]
Halo 5 Limited 1TB bundle $499 [2 weeks] [~93k]
LEGO Movie 500GB bundle $349 [4 weeks]
GoW:UE/Rare Replay/Ori 1TB Holiday Bundle $399 [1 week]
Xbox One with Kinect 3 game Bundle $499 [1 week]
50-Inch 1080p TV Bundle $799 @ Target [1 week]
Gamestop Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $100 towards Xbox One [2 weeks]
Halo 5 [1 week] [842k]
AC Syndicate [2 weeks] [168K]
[u]PS4[/u]
$50 price cut [4 weeks]
Uncharted Collection Bundle $349 [4 weeks] [>145k]
Gamestop Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $100 towards PS4 [2 weeks]
AC Syndicate [2 weeks] [223k]
Uncharted Collection [4 weeks] [<165k]
[u]Wii U[/u]
Yoshi's Woolly World [3 weeks] [165k]
Code:
2016 September Weekly Averages
Xbox One: 332,800 / 5 = 66,560
PS4: 285,300 / 5 = 57,060
Wii U: 36,300 / 5 = 7,260
Code:
Notable Events in October
[u]Xbox One[/u]
Xbox One S Gears of War 4 Limited 2TB bundle $449 [4 weeks]
Xbox One S Gears of War 4 1TB bundle $349 [3 weeks]
Xbox One S Battlefield 1 500GB bundle $299 [2 weeks]
Xbox One S Battlefield 1 1TB Military Green Limited bundle $349 [2 weeks]
Mafia III [4 weeks]
Gears of War 4 [3 weeks]
Battlefield 1 [2 weeks]
Titanfall 2 [1 week]
(?) Skyrim Special Edition [1 week]
[u]PS4[/u]
PlayStation VR $399
PlayStation VR Launch Bundle $499
Mafia III [4 weeks]
Battlefield 1 [2 weeks]
Titanfall 2 [1 week]
(?) Skyrim Special Edition [1 week]
Some notes:
- Kind of a hit or miss month when it comes to whether the weekly average improves or not.
Xbox almost always has pretty big hardware bundles along with high selling software which has helped the brand see only 2 instances of the average dropping. The first in 2010 which came off of the Halo Reach launch and 2014 when the Xbox One came off of the Destiny launch and had announced a $50 price drop at the end of the month.
The Xbox 360 rose an average of 9%, but if you exclude 2010 it averaged closer to a 16% increase.
Since it has only been out for 2 October’s worth of data, it is handicapped. 2016 looks to be closer to how the console should sell back in 2015 than 2014. Two massive software titles are getting 2 bundles each and will continue to see great sales momentum from September. Even if you averaged both October results, the Xbox One still sees an increase of 2%.
Sony actually doesn’t fare to well going into October. Almost always sees the average drop, with both instances (Pointing out, PS has seen 2 instances of an increased average, Xbox has seen 2 instances of a decreased average. This is a further point that Xbox does really well leading up to the holidays) being in 2010, which was a flat month, and 2012, which was only by 6%.
PS3 averaged a drop of 9%.
PS4 has had both October’s drop, but 2015 was not as drastic because that it dropped to $349 at the beginning of the month. This year saw the release of the PS4 slim, which by all accounts doesn’t sound like a massive success Didn’t even break the 100K barrier, so it’s the least successful first slim revision in the modern industry, besides the Wii Mini . It’s not pushing sales on its own moreso that it’s just $299. But its weak performance might be made up for the fact that it has to replace the Black Ops 3 bundle sales, unless of course people will be holding off on buying the system until November like last year.
And VR is kind of a heated topic on how it’ll affect sales. Short answer, price of entry for NEW consumers is $799.98 (PS4 slim $299.99, PSVR Launch Bundle $499.99). I’ll let you decide if people are really going to be buying a PS4 for VR.
If you were to average the PS4, it’s a 17% drop.
Nintendo has actually suffered from what some might call “Black Friday Concentration” this generation, where holiday sales are getting concentrated more into Black Friday.
The Wii improved every year except for 2012 which was in anticipation for the Wii U. In total, it increased by an average of 7%, but without 2012 it is closer to 15%.
The Wii U has suffered drops all three years so far. 2013 was the biggest because September had a price drop and Wind Waker HD, but so it is not an accurate point of reference compared to 2014 and 2015. All three years, the drop is 14%, but without 2013 it is closer to a 4% drop.
Recap.
October is generally an improvement for Xbox and slightly worse for Sony and Nintendo with weekly averages.
October almost never equals September in pure month to month because of the different amount of weeks. Only two instances in the past 6 years did October equal September and that was the Wii in 2011 and the Xbox 360 in 2012.
- The biggest October ever recorded between the 7th and 8th gen was the Wii with 803,000 back in 2008. Second biggest? Wii again with 519,000 in 2007.
