CharminUltra
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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?
- Thread starter Gurish
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It's called going for broke, lol.
Schopenhauerian
Member
We knew the quantities of Zelda's Master Edition would be limited, and that Nintendo would not be making any additional quantities available after initial supply was exhausted. So it makes sense that the Master Edition has dropped from #4 on the Amazon Best Sellers list – at around 11AM (see the first post, above), when it was already listed as unavailable – to #15, at the present time.
The Switch itself is still at #1 (unchanged), and Zelda's Special Edition is still at #4 (down from #3 at around 11AM), even though these two items had also already been listed as unavailable as of 11AM. It's not clear why these two items – unlike Zelda's Master Edition – have managed to stay at the top of the chart: perhaps Nintendo made additional quantities of them available at some point (before selling out again), or perhaps their 'staying power' is simply due to a comparatively large initial supply.
In any case: when do you think this Amazon 'Best Seller' chart will take a turn for the worse, for Nintendo? And will it be due to a lack of demand, from consumers, or a lack of supply, from Nintendo? Will Nintendo be able to recover from whatever drop occurs, in your estimation? What is most likely to be the cause of such a drop, in your estimation? What would be the best way for them to recover?
EDIT: The Amazon US 'Best Sellers in Video Games' chart, as of 1:55AM EST on 01/14/16: http://imgur.com/a/BuxZQ
Oh do you have the release date? They said holiday release, so about a year, people arguing semantics over a month or so is really telling.
Calm waterfall
Banned
Talking about fanboys. Gives a fanboy response.
SmackAttack
Member
Yep, it's definitely coming.
Lol totally. Also ps4 launch had a bunxh of 3rd party games, the switch has...zelda?
ElectricKaibutsu
Member
Perform better than Wii U? I doubt it unless there's something I'm really missing
dano1
A Sheep
You keep telling youself that, I'll maintain my position that it'll perform decently, not this year, but later after a price cut and when all that unified software starts coming out and being announced. 30-65 mill is my ballpark, Wii levels of success is just impossible, heck I even doubt it'll reach 3DS numbers, but I'm putting my ballpark close to it because it just might make it.
Randomizer
Member
I'm still leaning towards yes, just not as big as a success it could have been.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
I have come around to deciding that it does GCN numbers at worst (so about 22M) and near 3DS numbers at best, maybe 65M if all goes well.
My reasoning is that Japan is the primary audience, and they will buy this no matter what. Whether they can do enough to approach 3DS numbers depends on aggressive post-launch pricing cuts and offering multiple SKUs to cater to different customers in NA and EU.
That is my final prediction.
My reasoning is that Japan is the primary audience, and they will buy this no matter what. Whether they can do enough to approach 3DS numbers depends on aggressive post-launch pricing cuts and offering multiple SKUs to cater to different customers in NA and EU.
That is my final prediction.
Caipirinha
Member
Yeah but with the Switch you can press the revolutionary Share button to post a static image of your high score to Social Media Networks.
PS2 numbers confirmed.
I think it will see slightly less than Gamecube numbers, but not quite so bad as WiiU. The stronger launch lineup ensures that, at least.
If they wanted to sell a lot more, they could make a non-portable SKU that strips the screen and battery out (arguably the more expensive components), puts them into a console unit and sell it at a lower price. It's not like people can't use the same games / accessories if they decide to buy the tablet component later.
If they wanted to sell a lot more, they could make a non-portable SKU that strips the screen and battery out (arguably the more expensive components), puts them into a console unit and sell it at a lower price. It's not like people can't use the same games / accessories if they decide to buy the tablet component later.
That's wishful thinking. I'm thinking slightly better than Wii U at this point unless significant price drops and changes happen.
Alex
Member
It's hard to say, conceptually I liked the idea, although it felt a little convoluted. In execution it's quite convoluted and overpriced, especially with accessories and paid online. I mean essentially the idea was a shot at a Wii U 2.0 but now it feels like that for the wrong reasons as well.
That said, if they don't faceplant and try to wash it away somehow and actually live up to their supposed ideas, it'll have the strength of both handheld and console Nintendo games on it, including Pokemon, so that alone would make it do at least passably.
That said, if they don't faceplant and try to wash it away somehow and actually live up to their supposed ideas, it'll have the strength of both handheld and console Nintendo games on it, including Pokemon, so that alone would make it do at least passably.
The Switch doesn't use a decades-old obsolete chip design or expensive proprietary tech so there shouldn't be the same barriers to dropping the price as with the Wii U. Honestly I think they could sell it for $250 right now without a loss, this is just Nintendo being dumb and greedy.
As much as I love the Switch as it's currently designed, I really can't fathom why they don't make this an option.
I distinctly recall lurking back then and seeing someone really, really upset that they couldn't get it because someone beat them to it for scalping.
. . . As I recall it didn't really go well for scalpers.
{insert code here}
Member
If GAF consensus is Bomba, then the Switch is going to sell like hotcakes on a Sunday morning. If that whole GAF doesn't equal RotW meme is based on truth ofc.
Fwiw I too predict Bomba.
Fwiw I too predict Bomba.
Pureauthor
Member
The moment the words 'six hundred us dollars' were uttered everyone who wasn't wearing massive blinkers knew the thing was going to crater.
Alex_Mexico
Member
Just because it sells above the WiiU it doesnt make it a success. They have to surpass the GC to be labeled a (very modest) success. Anything below the GC should be considered a dismal failure.
bumleforce
Member
I mite get some hate here but I think it will be at wii u sales. I want it to fail so Nintendo can finally go third party and put there games on other systems. imagine mario kart on x1 and ps4. Zelda with no graphic limitations
I work in the games media and anecdotally hype levels seem to be much higher than when the Wii U was coming out. No one cared about that console and many, many hardcore gamers I knew felt totally comfortable skipping it. Many more people in my social circle went out and preordered the Switch Day 1.
It's game library is pretty iffy Year 1 though, as it looks now. So the console as a whole could go either way. If 1, 2, Switch! ends up getting airtime on Ellen and shit like that, and the console begins to pick up Wii-like Steam, it'll be rolling by holiday. But if no one but the initial preorder crowd buys in... yikes. You'll see even the token Western support dry up rapidly.
Just 13 Million Wii Us have been sold... I think the Switch is good for 20 million at the low end, and 60 million at the high end.
It's game library is pretty iffy Year 1 though, as it looks now. So the console as a whole could go either way. If 1, 2, Switch! ends up getting airtime on Ellen and shit like that, and the console begins to pick up Wii-like Steam, it'll be rolling by holiday. But if no one but the initial preorder crowd buys in... yikes. You'll see even the token Western support dry up rapidly.
Just 13 Million Wii Us have been sold... I think the Switch is good for 20 million at the low end, and 60 million at the high end.
BronzeWolf
Banned
24 hours since the presentation, my initial negativity about the device and the launch lineup has subsided.
I am pretty sure the device itself is exciting for many people outside of hardcore gaf, and it will have plenty of games throughout 2017, specially if that Pokemon Stars rumor is true.
More remains to be seen on the priceyness of the accessories and the online model, but I am sure those will not be the reasons this system fails or succeed.
I believe it will succeed, a lot
I am pretty sure the device itself is exciting for many people outside of hardcore gaf, and it will have plenty of games throughout 2017, specially if that Pokemon Stars rumor is true.
More remains to be seen on the priceyness of the accessories and the online model, but I am sure those will not be the reasons this system fails or succeed.
I believe it will succeed, a lot
Bonfires Down
Member
I was thinking 40M, but after seeing the comments here and knowing how delusional gaffers usually are I'm gonna raise to 50M.
The poll options are pretty fuzzy though. There is a lot of space between Gamecube and Wii.
The poll options are pretty fuzzy though. There is a lot of space between Gamecube and Wii.
Nocturno999
Member
He is right, and I bought a PS4 day one.
Freeman76
Member
Points out GAF is delusional with a delusional post. Quality!
Melchiah
Member
Funnily enough, not that many third parties use the DS4's unique features either, despite of the platform's userbase.
Rats Off To Ya
Banned
A fun thread, indeed.
longdi
Banned
LTTP, i just read thru the Switch news.
Yeah i think it will be Wii U again. Some things like shitty battery life and beta-online features, tells me Nintendo is rushing Switch out. Switch does nothing technologically to wow people.
At $299++, it is more of a premium Nintendo console/handheld, suitable for the Nintendo fanbase at best.
Nintendo should either aimed lower or higher.
$199 for the soccer moms who wants a cheaper gaming tablet.
$399+ with added specs for the core gamers who wants something different from PS4.
I dont see many people (in the age of smartphones/tablets) will want to buy Switch at $299 and pay for full priced games, and now pay to play Splatoon...
Yeah i think it will be Wii U again. Some things like shitty battery life and beta-online features, tells me Nintendo is rushing Switch out. Switch does nothing technologically to wow people.
At $299++, it is more of a premium Nintendo console/handheld, suitable for the Nintendo fanbase at best.
Nintendo should either aimed lower or higher.
$199 for the soccer moms who wants a cheaper gaming tablet.
$399+ with added specs for the core gamers who wants something different from PS4.
I dont see many people (in the age of smartphones/tablets) will want to buy Switch at $299 and pay for full priced games, and now pay to play Splatoon...
Amazing how $10 can absolutely sink a platform's long term success in anyone's estimation.
The pro controller for the Wii U was $50, what the fuck made the Switch's version spike up $20?
R&D must have blown a hole in their pocket or some thing. Nintendo is kidding themselves with these accessory prices.
The Wii didn't do gangbusters because of third parties, it really really didn't. The fact you are also saying 'Wii U + 3DS in the same sentence is also...Interesting.
'The Switch will be a success, probably doing 13million, 60million or 100million or whatever. Third parties are the key'
I'll give you another clue as to the Wii's success - it launched £100 lower in the UK
Calm waterfall
Banned
Japan is the mystery here. I would put the Switch on the gamecube level, but i don´t know how Japan will receive this.
TheGreatMightyPoo
Banned
It'll do pretty good when it's all said and done.
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