NPD Sales Results for December 2015 [Up1: Super Mario Maker]

May 26, 2015
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So... you're basically saying Sony and Microsoft already made their money because those products are already shipped. However, for them to make anymore profits, those products need to get off the shelves at a fast enough pace to warrant more shipments.

You have been positing that a $99 pricetag will cause a significant boost in hardware and software. However, if it was so obvious as you were making it out, then this would have already happened. It may be already too late because we are over 2 years into this gen. For the PS3, some of its best games have been/are being remastered for the PS4 such as the Uncharted series, The Last of Us, God of War III, and Valkyria Chronicles. For the XB1, it has backwards compatibility for certain 360 games.

And in response to your response to my previous comment, I have not ignored games, accessories, and such. In fact, you basically ignored my previous comments and jumped the gun. I mentioned the XB1's BC earlier, which you have clearly forgotten, for instance. The PS Move is compatible with PSVR. It has found another purpose other than being a Wiimote clone. Kinect 1.0 has been extremely quiet and I doubt it is doing any significant numbers. You claim that the PS3 and 360 are close to the Wii U worldwide, but do you have citations for that claim? Media Create numbers show that the PS3 and Wii U aren't close at all.

Overall, your claims are based on your feelings, rather than empirical evidence. You need to show proper citations, show trends that show that PS3 and 360 are still viable and a price drop can yield bigger profits. You haven't done any of that the entire time.
Uh no your claims are based on feeling and you still haven't refuted anything.

Heck your using a bc argument that has a proven history of having marginal to zero impact.

You don't have an argument saying old 7 year old games are being remastered for the ps4 when that's not the argument. There are 1-3 year olds that have been charting and selling well. Heck, nee games from the last year til now have been selling. W have actual charts to show this fact so uh what?
 
May 26, 2015
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I feel like the time for a much cheaper 360 revision has probably gone... they could have done it in 2013 if they wanted as they went into this generation, get people into Xbox and then try to get them to upgrade to Xbox One later but in 2016... its probably too late now?

Considering the still decent software and hardware sales I think this would be the last year to do it if they decide to.

Or at least at best throw out a bundle that contains maybe 3-5 games. Official bundle.
 
Jul 7, 2015
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Mario Kart 8 is probably near 6.5 million(maybe even well above that) right now including digital(I don't know how high digital attach rates are on the nintendo eshop for wiiu games like Mario Kart 8). If you are correct mario kart 8 won't be the worst selling console Mario Kart game.I find it kinda weird how the game actually has the potential to sell 8 million copies on a console that has sold sub 20 million units. If the install base got to wii levels again on a future nintendo console I would not be surprised if a future mario kart game sold like 30 million copies again.
More like WELL over 6.5 million.
It's between 6.5-7 million most likely.

Anyway, Mario Kart 8 shipped 440,000 in the Q3 2015. It only need to ship 630,000 for be at 6.5m, and this is almost a given.
It only need a holidays boost of ~43%, and this is super easy, look last year.

Mario Kart 8 in Q3 = 670,000
Mario Kart 8 in Q4 = 1,280,000
Boost: 91%

And this time the boost should be even bigger because MK8 is more bundled.

I predict 900k in Q4 2015. So, 6.77 million lifetime.
 
Nov 18, 2013
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Considering the still decent software and hardware sales I think this would be the last year to do it if they decide to.

Or at least at best throw out a bundle that contains maybe 3-5 games. Official bundle.
I think right now they would prefer to clean stocks, which might just work fine at the actual pricepoint, and not creating new demand and being forced to produce old consoles again by lowering the price to bargain bin level.
They concentrate on this gen. This is where money is made. Old gen is peanuts compared to this.

Also: Thanks Mr. Queso for the example with Price Anchoring and the funny iPad anecdote. Maybe Palmer Luckey should have done the same with announcement of the Occulus price....
 
May 26, 2015
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I think right now they would prefer to clean stocks, which might just work fine at the actual pricepoint, and not creating new demand and being forced to produce old consoles again by lowering the price to bargain bin level.
They concentrate on this gen. This is where money is made. Old gen is peanuts compared to this.

Also: Thanks Mr. Queso for the example with Price Anchoring and the funny iPad anecdote. Maybe Palmer Luckey should have done the same with announcement of the Occulus price....
Speaking of there aren't any cross-gen games releasing this year right? Those are over now?
 
Jun 26, 2013
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Uh no your claims are based on feeling and you still haven't refuted anything.

Heck your using a bc argument that has a proven history of having marginal to zero impact.

You don't have an argument saying old 7 year old games are being remastered for the ps4 when that's not the argument. There are 1-3 year olds that have been charting and selling well. Heck, nee games from the last year til now have been selling. W have actual charts to show this fact so uh what?
"No, you're doing it". How is that a valid argument? You're now just throwing a bunch of poop at the wall, hoping something sticks. Now, you're just saying "No, you're wrong because I say so" while plugging your fingers in your ears.

To address your BC "counterargument", what point is there for consumers to get a 360 if the games they like are backwards compatible with the XB1? With the XB1, you can play both 360 and XB1 games. That is a clear advantage over getting just a 360.

As for you last paragraph, what? Your statements are all over the place to the point that they have become incoherent. Some of the PS3's most popular titles have been remastered to the PS4. This reduces the incentive to get a PS3 because the remasters give you a better experience, whether it's higher resolution and/or better, more stable framerate. It's the same reason why consumers like to buy Bluray remasters of old movies.
 
Jul 7, 2015
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I almost forgot to update the final month of the year in the "WII VS PS4+XB1 Second year comparation".

Anyway, XB1 and PS4 sold a total of 10.69 million this year, beating the Wii which sold 10.15 million.

The final month of the 2015, XB1 and PS4 sold a total of 2.96 million, the Wii sold 2.15 million in December 2008. Holidays sales have XB1 and PS4 at 5.79 million in 2015, compared to the Wii at 4.19 million in 2008.

January to October 2015, PS4 and XB1 sold 4.89 million, the Wii sold 5.96 million in 2008.

Holidays sales made the difference.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZwUaTuWEAAFfc0.png:large

Wii sales during the holidays 2008 were surely at beasting level, though not complete insane. (The PS4 in 2015 isn't much under that with 3.12 million). The monster holidays season was during 2009 when it sold over 5 million (5.07 million), with nearly 4 million only in December (3.81 million).

Overall, 2009 sales were not at 2008 level because sales during the summer were not even close, thanks System seller like Super Smash Bros Brawl which sold 2.7 million in March NPD 2008, or Mario Kart Wii which sold 1.12 during the first week in USA. Both months have the Wii over 700K.
 
Sep 2, 2014
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Not quite purely NPD related but it is sales and retail numbers were provided by cream, it would seem that with retail Shovel Knight has broken a million or very, very close. The source is the most recent NVC (here), and for reference here is the known retail:

3DS - 27k
WiiU - 23k

Thought it was topical given the Undertale news.
 
Sep 8, 2013
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Yeaaa...

NDP_Mulcair was banned for being a re-registration of a previously permanently banned member. This is the last post in this thread on the subject.
It is in your best interest not talk about it or else your shit might get deleted or you might get a new grey tag.

Some seriously sketchy bullshit going on.
 
May 26, 2015
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"No, you're doing it". How is that a valid argument? You're now just throwing a bunch of poop at the wall, hoping something sticks. Now, you're just saying "No, you're wrong because I say so" while plugging your fingers in your ears.

To address your BC "counterargument", what point is there for consumers to get a 360 if the games they like are backwards compatible with the XB1? With the XB1, you can play both 360 and XB1 games. That is a clear advantage over getting just a 360.

As for you last paragraph, what? Your statements are all over the place to the point that they have become incoherent. Some of the PS3's most popular titles have been remastered to the PS4. This reduces the incentive to get a PS3 because the remasters give you a better experience, whether it's higher resolution and/or better, more stable framerate. It's the same reason why consumers like to buy Bluray remasters of old movies.
I lie how in failing the argument yo start omitting things from my post. In fact doubling down on bc as anything impactful given history shows your just throwing things in the air. 360 in 2months did almost 200k, people are still buying 360s, remember the drop in ps2 sales when the ps3 ca- oh.

You haven't refuted my points either, your the only one going blah blah by dodging everythin you were called at all, now you have a post only focusing on one subject now, bc, I wonder what happened to the other points. Had nothing to refute I guess.

Lol bc having any impact on anything.
 
Jun 26, 2013
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I lie how in failing the argument yo start omitting things from my post. In fact doubling down on bc as anything impactful given history shows your just throwing things in the air. 360 in 2months did almost 200k, people are still buying 360s, remember the drop in ps2 sales when the ps3 ca- oh.
360 in the 2 busiest months did almost 200k and it will be down YOY this year. "People are still buying 360s" is not a convincing argument when the number came on the back of deals/discounts and will continue to shrink.

You haven't refuted my points either, your the only one going blah blah by dodging everythin you were called at all, now you have a post only focusing on one subject now, bc, I wonder what happened to the other points. Had nothing to refute I guess.

Lol bc having any impact on anything.
BC is the only subject? You missed this paragraph in my previous comment:

As for you last paragraph, what? Your statements are all over the place to the point that they have become incoherent. Some of the PS3's most popular titles have been remastered to the PS4. This reduces the incentive to get a PS3 because the remasters give you a better experience, whether it's higher resolution and/or better, more stable framerate. It's the same reason why consumers like to buy Bluray remasters of old movies.
You're basically cherrypicking the parts in which you think are my weakest points, but you failed to counter those, as well. For instance, did I say BC will have a big impact? Here's something to ponder: if a person doesn't have a 360 or XB1 yet, which console is more attractive? The one that only plays 360 games or the one that can play both XB1 and a handful of 360 games?
 
Aug 31, 2013
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Sorry to leave you hanging; I got distracted by The Tomorrow Children. (2247 😜)

I admit, my methods were a tad bit unorthodox.
Admitting it is the first step. ;)

I'm not about that life.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ypkmp6D90KU

Well, let's look at April, May, and June 2015 in the US for the PS4…
Let's cut to the chase instead. Even if your estimate is spot on, and 9k-12k is precisely the weekly sales Sony should've expected during that period, it's still just an estimate. And then we base a second estimate on that estimate, and then a third estimate on the second. Even though ~10k is the expected result, what if for whatever reason, they were actually selling 5k/week during that period, or 20k/week? That'll have a fairly large effect on our mid-year estimate, which in turn will affect our year-end estimate, again, no matter how sound our actual methodology. (And I'm not even sure that expecting the UK gap to grow only 20% when the US gap nearly doubled over the same period is particularly sound to being with…) And why is the assumption that PS4 sales in the UK will mirror those in the US being used to "prove" that isn't the case for the Bone? Isn't it more likely neither precisely mirrors the US?

The point is, I don't imagine it's a coincidence that the only country in the world where Bone appears to be doing spectacularly well is the same country where we're trying to guess what's actually happening. That's why it seems prudent to stop guessing and stick to stuff we can actually measure.

To clear some pent up emotions because of some personal happenings that happened today…
You okay, man? <3
 
May 26, 2015
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360 in the 2 busiest months did almost 200k and it will be down YOY this year. "People are still buying 360s" is not a convincing argument when the number came on the back of deals/discounts and will continue to shrink.



BC is the only subject? You missed this paragraph in my previous comment:



You're basically cherrypicking the parts in which you think are my weakest points, but you failed to counter those, as well. For instance, did I say BC will have a big impact? Here's something to ponder: if a person doesn't have a 360 or XB1 yet, which console is more attractive? The one that only plays 360 games or the one that can play both XB1 and a handful of 360 games?
You once again avoided the other points in my post. Your sale rant doesn't change the reality that the 360 is selling well and al those sales are profit, when will you refute anything insead of diverting attention to irrelevant topics?


Also saying bc will have an impact and saying "why would you buy a X3 if XO has BC" means yes you did say that it would have a noticeable impact. You seem to be lost In your backtracking. He'll you basically contradicted yourself in the last part of the paragraph.


A lot of buyers don't even know XO has bc, and it's limited, and as another user put it, buyers looking at the 360 likely aren't looking at the one, yet, anyway.

Another point you haven't refuted and dodged, remember the time people were saying why buy a ps2 because the ps3 plays ps2 games? Oh that didn't happen, I think it was the Wii U. No wasn't that either, DS. Nope wasn't that either.
 
Jun 26, 2013
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You once again avoided the other points in my post. Your sale rant doesn't change the reality that the 360 is selling well and al those sales are profit, when will you refute anything insead of diverting attention to irrelevant topics?
Repeating this over and over again doesn't make your claim true. This is argumentum ad nauseum.

Also saying bc will have an impact and saying "why would you buy a X3 if XO has BC" means yes you did say that it would have a noticeable impact. You seem to be lost In your backtracking. He'll you basically contradicted yourself in the last part of the paragraph.
Citation needed. Show where I said that verbatim. Also, this is a strawman fallacy because you're not arguing against my actual point. What part of the point do you disagree with? If a consumer does not have either a 360 or XB1, the XB1 will be the more attractive product to purchase. BC is one of those reasons because the XB1 can play a handful of 360 games. Here's another reason that I haven't mentioned. Some of the 360's best games have been remastered such as Gears Ultimate and Halo: MCC.

So, I ask you again. What part of my argument do you disagree with?

A lot of buyers don't even know XO has bc, and it's limited, and as another user put it, buyers looking at the 360 likely aren't looking at the one, yet, anyway.

Another point you haven't refuted and dodged, remember the time people were saying why buy a ps2 because the ps3 plays ps2 games? Oh that didn't happen, I think it was the Wii U. No wasn't that either, DS. Nope wasn't that either.
Well, which one is more attractive at the time? A $99 PS2 or a $599 PS3? You tell me. Now compare that to the 360 vs XB1 situation. Is there a $500 gap between the 360 and XB1? You have overlooked a very large detail in your argument...
 
Nov 18, 2013
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Well, MS's results for Q2 FY 2016 :
Another48Hours was right all along.
Hardware revenue declined for Xbox because of lower 360 sales.
If they had lowered the price to 99$, this would not have happened.

Also: next to no growth in active users for a full year (sounds awful!) and then suddenly such a huge bump? Halo effect I guess.
 
May 26, 2015
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Repeating this over and over again doesn't make your claim true. This is argumentum ad nauseum.



Citation needed. Show where I said that verbatim. Also, this is a strawman fallacy because you're not arguing against my actual point. What part of the point do you disagree with? If a consumer does not have either a 360 or XB1, the XB1 will be the more attractive product to purchase. BC is one of those reasons because the XB1 can play a handful of 360 games. Here's another reason that I haven't mentioned. Some of the 360's best games have been remastered such as Gears Ultimate and Halo: MCC.

So, I ask you again. What part of my argument do you disagree with?



Well, which one is more attractive at the time? A $99 PS2 or a $599 PS3? You tell me. Now compare that to the 360 vs XB1 situation. Is there a $500 gap between the 360 and XB1? You have overlooked a very large detail in your argument...
I like how you won't refute my examples.

If this never worked for ps3 Wii u, or Ds why would bc have impact on the Xbox one? Your making statement saying there's an impact, tan backpedaling falsely claiming that's not what you said. Your rsponces are getting smaller and smaller and now your clearly only talking about bC and gave up on anything else. Try refuting points instead of circular arguments, the point you said and implied I'm wrong about.


I'll your pics fap comparison is another desperate attempt at deflection and you omitted the other two console I talked about. How about you address those as well? Of course you won't, because you have to omit things to have an argument, silly really, just say you messed up and move on. Best part is your bottom paragraph proves once again you think bc will have an impact, bbbb but you never said that right?
 
Jun 26, 2013
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I like how you won't refute my examples.
Argumentum ad nauseum

If this never worked for ps3 Wii u, or Ds why would bc have impact on the Xbox one? Your making statement saying there's an impact, tan backpedaling falsely claiming that's not what you said. Your rsponces are getting smaller and smaller and now your clearly only talking about bC and gave up on anything else. Try refuting points instead of circular arguments, the point you said and implied I'm wrong about.


I'm still waiting for your citation where I actually said BC will make a big impact. I'm also still waiting for your actual counterarguments... Also, if you're more concerned about my responses' length than their actual content, then you need to recheck your argumentative priorities...

I'll your pics fap comparison is another desperate attempt at deflection and you omitted the other two console I talked about. How about you address those as well? Of course you won't, because you have to omit things to have an argument, silly really, just say you messed up and move on. Best part is your bottom paragraph proves once again you think bc will have an impact, bbbb but you never said that right?
So, you're actually not going to address my points? Well, it's pretty clear that you don't have anything to say when you have resorted to imtimidation and jeering tactics. Sad really...

Also, what in the world is the bolded? Are you merely knee-jerk responding at this point?
 
May 26, 2015
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Argumentum ad nauseum





I'm still waiting for your citation where I actually said BC will make a big impact. I'm also still waiting for your actual counterarguments... Also, if you're more concerned about my responses' length than their actual content, then you need to recheck your argumentative priorities...



So, you're actually not going to address my points? Well, it's pretty clear that you don't have anything to say when you have resorted to imtimidation and jeering tactics. Sad really...

Also, what in the world is the bolded? Are you merely knee-jerk responding at this point?
Well seems like you gave up, we went from talking about benefits POTENTIALLY, of $99, bc, sales rates, comparisons to other consoles, current retail options, software, acessories, xbl/psn, etc.

To Bc and sales rates.

To bc.

Now to nothing.

How about you refute my points instead of dodging them, then making multiple statements saying bc will have an effect on 360 sales and being a little girl and saying you don't say that hen called out on?

I'll just go back to an earlier post so you can start trying to argue this time. This time when responding to the below either refute or address this time.

Cosmic and Shenmue are the only ones who have addressed the issues so far and I see where they are coming from, you have done nothing but circulatw arguments, backpedaling, and twisting words and omitting them post to post this whole time, try again below.

Keep up the insults, your aggressive approach only makes you look more unintelligent.

Your whole post once again goes back to "consoles only" but you're so fool of yourself you don't realize it, not one thing you written refutes my point. You also act as if you factually know what would happen but you dnt, possibility is a term that works both ways.

Yes, if they cut the price, they would gain less profit, but again you ignore games, Kinect, move, xbl, psn, accessories etc. Btw a lot of those are already in stores likely sitting their on sold, so again ts free cash.

The ps3 and 360 still do decent numbers, and their holidays likely were not that far from wii u ww. New games or older games brought new still chart so yes there are still buyers, a lot of the above are sitting in stores and don't need shipments either so all they need to do on their end is cut the price, no real work.

Again, it's low risk for the possibility of gaining greater profit. Also, there's possibly a decent market waiting for both to finally be at $99.
I await you to address this quoted post.

Also let us all not forget th first post you addressed to me was intent on being incredibly agressive and you didn't even rea what I had wrote AND you were caked put by others twice.
Anyway I am awaiting you to address the above post and start over. Try doing what cos and Allan snd Shenmue did, not making your first post agresdive garbage lookng gor a fight, read each point and address them, try to be civil, you never did and you revived the same in return. Oh and do less word twisting.

Thank you.
 
Jun 26, 2013
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Well seems like you gave up, we went from talking about benefits POTENTIALLY, of $99, bc, sales rates, comparisons to other consoles, current retail options, software, acessories, xbl/psn, etc.

To Bc and sales rates.

To bc.

Now to nothing.

How about you refute my points instead of dodging them, then making multiple statements saying bc will have an effect on 360 sales and being a little girl and saying you don't say that hen called out on?

I'll just go back to an earlier post so you can start trying to argue this time. This time when responding to the below either refute or address this time.

Cosmic and Shenmue are the only ones who have addressed the issues so far and I see where they are coming from, you have done nothing but circulatw arguments, backpedaling, and twisting words and omitting them post to post this whole time, try again below.



I await you to address this quoted post.

Also let us all not forget th first post you addressed to me was intent on being incredibly agressive and you didn't even rea what I had wrote AND you were caked put by others twice.
Anyway I am awaiting you to address the above post and start over. Try doing what cos and Allan snd Shenmue did, not making your first post agresdive garbage lookng gor a fight, read each point and address them, try to be civil, you never did and you revived the same in return. Oh and do less word twisting.

Thank you.


Also, I have already addressed the points you made in that comment. Too bad you didn't pay attention because you were too aggressive and cared more about intimidating me than actually addressing my points.

So I ask you again to actually address my points because I have to say, you're snapping the ball from your own 1 yd line on 4th down.
 
Feb 24, 2014
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Sorry to leave you hanging; I got distracted by The Tomorrow Children. (2247 &#55357;&#56860;)
I guessed it was that. Saw you streaming it, but I couldn't catch it.
Admitting it is the first step. ;)
:p
Let's cut to the chase instead. Even if your estimate is spot on, and 9k-12k is precisely the weekly sales Sony should've expected during that period, it's still just an estimate. And then we base a second estimate on that estimate, and then a third estimate on the second. Even though ~10k is the expected result, what if for whatever reason, they were actually selling 5k/week during that period, or 20k/week? That'll have a fairly large effect on our mid-year estimate, which in turn will affect our year-end estimate, again, no matter how sound our actual methodology. (And I'm not even sure that expecting the UK gap to grow only 20% when the US gap nearly doubled over the same period is particularly sound to being with&#8230;) And why is the assumption that PS4 sales in the UK will mirror those in the US being used to "prove" that isn't the case for the Bone? Isn't it more likely neither precisely mirrors the US?

The point is, I don't imagine it's a coincidence that the only country in the world where Bone appears to be doing spectacularly well is the same country where we're trying to guess what's actually happening. That's why it seems prudent to stop guessing and stick to stuff we can actually measure.
Alright.
You okay, man? <3
A lot better now. Time heals all wounds, as they say.

But I really want to hear your thoughts on this: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=193607987#post193607987
 
Sep 8, 2013
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Sony Q3 results are in
8.4 million units sold in for Q3
37.7 million units sold in by end of 2015 WW

So given the sell through figure of 35.9 million we can say that ~ 1.8 million units were on shelves at end of year. That a lot given the Sony's previous tightly managed shipped:sold ratio.

You seem upset. I know what you need! A song! Sing it with me now

MAU land is your land
MAU land is my land
From the Windows desktop
To the Surface store stand.
This land was ads for MAU and Me

There there don't you feel better now?
 
Sep 8, 2013
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For those interested here's the link for Sony conference call for those interested in watching.

Also another sales fact about the Q3 results: The PS4 shipped more last quarter than the Wii U did in 2 years.
Source

You seem quite proud of that song, since you have posted in so many threads already. ;)
I mean can you blame me? :p

But yea I might be a tad bit tipsy haha
 
May 16, 2006
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AMD, EA... every source is showing that 18 million figure for Xbox One not just makes sense but also can be a little conservative.

The console is doing Ok, is not a huge success like PS4, but is not a failure either.