Support NeoGAF

[The Faceless Master]

Not true. There are plenty of games which sell a decent chunk in the second month as the first month. Especially games that come out in the tail end of the month like ME2.

such as? and how much is "decent'?

 

[Ultimo hombre]

From EEDAR, a comment about Wii games (my emphasis)...

Unless you're a core Nintendo game, you should just stay on the sidelines. The Wii install base =/= potential sales pool for a core "hardcore" game. Yet publishers just can't see it...

 

[Count Dookkake]

Totally forgot the NPDs were today.

[checks results]

:lol

Fad of the forever!

 

[schuelma]

There we go jvm, that will get this thread popping again

 

[FrankT]

As others have mentioned, we get the same shit every month about how a game is good and will have legs on word of mouth. It rarely happens.

The just killed themselves by releasing ME2 in January. It always had more potential than DAO. It should have been prioritized. Or delayed into March. People don't spend in January.

The 360 version and the US sales will account for most of the game's sales. If you figure $35 wholesale for the game, it hasn't cleared $20 million on the 360. With marketing, it probably cost more than $50 million. They may make their money back, but breaking even on a $50 million dollar investment is bad business.

They get $49 from Gamestop for every game sold per the CEO. Those numbers are nothing but fuzzy math. It was internally published which means the return is all in house. At $35 they would already be over 20 million. Double overseas and they already looking at $40 million at $35 in six days.

 

[Rainier]

:lol

worms, meet can opener...

 

[Deleted member 30609]

Unless you're a core Nintendo game, you should just stay on the sidelines. The Wii install base =/= potential sales pool for a core "hardcore" game. Yet publishers just can't see it...

oh godohgod oh godddd

 

[DevelopmentArrested]

I thought this was going to be boring, but man, never underestimate the PS3 losing to the 360. It just eats at some of you people.

500k in 6 days a disappointment. :lol Didn't it out sell UC2?

I hate this hypocritical shit.

 

[kitzkozan]

Fallout 3 sold 375k its first 3 days but the sales dropped the next month regardless (it is obvious because first week sales always tend to be higher than any month sales). It sold probably 250k the next month). It is expected that mass effect 2 is going to sell 200-350k next month. The game sales were barely better than mass effect 1 (473k) so it is expected the xbox 360 version should sell near those numbers. The advertising basically was ineffective and a waste of money.

This just showed how silly it was to move games outside of q4. Q4 games sell better, and is a matter of fact. 3rd party developers that delayed their games outside of the holiday season was a huge mistake and it was detrimental on sales. I could think of multiple games that performed better as a result in 2009. Batman Arkham Asylum, and Borderlands.

Anyway, these numbers are horrible for the market. Army of two: 40th day, and darksiders were unprofitable. It seems like there is no use to make games during this time frame on HD market.

Why do people think heavy rain is going to be a sleeper hit? I think it is expected the game is going to be niche. The game could sell around 300-400k at best but, that game isn't going to be this juggernaut game. I doubt it will ever reach 1 million.

I think you would be surprised at how well Fallout 3 sold,even if the NPD wasn't spectacular.They shipped 4.7 million copies and the price stayed at 60$ until the game of the year edition.I am sure Fallout 3 had fantastic legs and sold 4 million+out of 4.7 million copies shipped.

Mass effect 2 will surely go over 2 million copies sold,but 5 is out of the question for sure.

It is quite possible that despite Bioware best intention,dialogue heavy game will never sell as well as an action rpg like Diablo where you mostly bash monsters on the skull and collect the loot ( and in which case,The old republic won't come even close to WOW numbers).

 

[MattyGrovesOrMe]

Jan 2010 -- Two Weeks on Sale

360 ARMY OF TWO: THE 40TH DAY --- 246.5K
PS3 ARMY OF TWO: THE 40TH DAY --- (?? < 171K)


Mar 2008 -- Four Weeks on Sale

360 ARMY OF TWO --- 606.1K
PS3 ARMY OF TWO --- 224.9K

 

[schuelma]

Unless you're a core Nintendo game, you should just stay on the sidelines. The Wii install base =/= potential sales pool for a core "hardcore" game. Yet publishers just can't see it...

Uhh..of course they see it. That's why they never develop or release anything requiring any substantive advertising budget. Should NMH2 probably have done better..yes. Was it ever going to chart or even do 100K in its first month? No.

You act like pubs are just blindly throwing tons of money around on the Wii :lol

 

[Trent Strong]

I think Bayonetta's demo probably hurt it's sales. I, for one, had absolutely no idea what was going on in that demo.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

From EEDAR, a comment about Wii games (my emphasis)...

Marketing Budget!

People must know the game exists to buy it!

I just solved the industries Wii woes. Million dollars please!

 

[ag-my001]

From EEDAR, a comment about Wii games (my emphasis)...

Anybody have the LTD/first month of the original NMH game?

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Sweet, NMH2 is the new meter stick.

 

[Psychotext]

That's cute... but you know you're going to get pulled up on the "every".

On a different note regarding Mass Effect 2. There is one slight difference between this time and last time... this time it's got the PC version for immediate competition.

Besides that, I can't really see how half a million in the first week is anything other than solid.

 

[stupei]

Unless you're a core Nintendo game, you should just stay on the sidelines. The Wii install base =/= potential sales pool for a core "hardcore" game. Yet publishers just can't see it...

What's funny is I'm pretty sure that in a thread full of people tearing their hair out over Bayonetta not making the top 10, your comments about the Wii market which you're basing off the sales of No More Heroes 2 probably aren't meant as satire. Now that's funny.

 

[BattleMonkey]

oh godohgod oh godddd

oh yesohyes oh yessss

 

[Cosmonaut X]

From EEDAR, a comment about Wii games (my emphasis)...

Well, although this comes on the tail end of a conversation about initial sales not panning out into "leggy" sales, there are a number of titles on the Wii that have shown strong legs on low initial sales so...

Would also be interesting to see figures for NMH in launch month and LTD to give an idea of how NMH2 compares.

 

[velvet_nitemare]

Usually around noon Eastern time (i.e. about 16 hours from this post's timestamp).

Thanks man. Also thx for the NMH2 number, hopefully we get others like Bayo, Tatsucap and Dark Void.

 

[FrankT]

Jan 2010 -- Two Weeks on Sale

360 ARMY OF TWO: THE 40TH DAY --- 246.5K
PS3 ARMY OF TWO: THE 40TH DAY --- (?? < 171K)


Mar 2008 -- Four Weeks on Sale

360 ARMY OF TWO --- 606.1K
PS3 ARMY OF TWO --- 224.9K

Ouch, the reallity of the games industry.

 

[Cellbomber]

I think people expect too much from NPD sales sometimes. There are other regions that games sell in. It's kind of weird saying that Mass Effect 2 is a flop when it's likely to sell 1 million+ worldwide.

It's funny the amount of games that go on and sell well overtime that had poor NPD first months.

 

[speculawyer]

From EEDAR, a comment about Wii games (my emphasis)...
EEDAR:
Core Games on Wii Continue To Struggle
No More Heroes 2: Desperate Struggle has scored top reviews averaging a 90 (out of 100) since its release. However, sales came less than 30,000 units for its first week (January 26, 2010 release). Given that the game is more targeted to the traditional core gamers (who tend to be more attached to the Xbox 360 and PS3) this is yet another sign that the Wii is a difficult device for third party publishers to succeed on with M Rated titles. Other titles that have failed to perform despite strong review scores on the Wii include Dead Space: Extraction (ERTS) and MadWorld (Sega). Of course, all three titles did have low marketing budgets, which is likely the wrong strategy to use when attempting to target the Wii consumer, even if you are targeting the “core” market.

And here we go . . . they are not trying hard enough . . . oh wait, it got 90/100.

Go ahead, bash me. But you can't bash reality.

 

[gregor7777]

I hate this hypocritical shit.

What? :lol

I was pointing out that the same group saying 500k+ for UC2 was great while ME2's 500k+ is disappointing.

Unless you're agreeing with me, in which case nevermind lol. Doesn't read that way though.

 

[DMeisterJ]

This thread is showing it's true potential now.

I'm so happy I could dance.

 

[NeoUltima]

500k in 6 days a disappointment. :lol Didn't it out sell UC2?

I'm not going to do a big analysis, but they both are probably selling similarly relative to their console installbases.

Anyone who calls either game a failure is a moran.

 

[MikeE21286]

Core Games on Wii Continue To Struggle
No More Heroes 2: Desperate Struggle has scored top reviews averaging a 90 (out of 100) since its release. However, sales came less than 30,000 units for its first week (January 26, 2010 release). Given that the game is more targeted to the traditional core gamers (who tend to be more attached to the Xbox 360 and PS3) this is yet another sign that the Wii is a difficult device for third party publishers to succeed on with M Rated titles. Other titles that have failed to perform despite strong review scores on the Wii include Dead Space: Extraction (ERTS) and MadWorld (Sega). Of course, all three titles did have low marketing budgets, which is likely the wrong strategy to use when attempting to target the Wii consumer, even if you are targeting the “core” market.

 

[BattleMonkey]

Jan 2010 -- Two Weeks on Sale

360 ARMY OF TWO: THE 40TH DAY --- 246.5K
PS3 ARMY OF TWO: THE 40TH DAY --- (?? < 171K)


Mar 2008 -- Four Weeks on Sale

360 ARMY OF TWO --- 606.1K
PS3 ARMY OF TWO --- 224.9K

Mmmm love it. Die bromance

 

[JaxJag]

"Looks at Bayonetta and Darksiders numbers"

Looks like the better game won out.

 

[Road]

Anybody have the LTD/first month of the original NMH game?

I think it did more than 65k first month and the last LTD I remember had it at over 200k.

 

[Grooski]

fanboy pic

Yeah thats just plain classy...

 

[racerx]

The game is already generating a lot of casual buzz. Was in GS today and the clerk told me they have seen pre-orders go up significantly in the last two weeks. It's also #1 on Amazon's top 100.

I wouldn't bet on it, but I would be very surprised if Heavy Rain breaks 100k.

This is the type of game you would rent.

 

[Son of Godzilla]

Eh fuck it. ME2 managed to sell 100k more than ME1 did without two extra weeks while launching aside a PC version and without holiday spending/discounting numbers. Make enough qualifiers and it seems solid enough growth I guess... Still can't stop feeling underwhelmed though, EA seemed to invest heavily in the franchise and it simply deserves to have done better. The fact that it's done comparably to other rpgs games this gen is insulting.

 

[JudgeN]

What? :lol

I was pointing out that the same group saying 500k+ for UC2 was great while ME2's 500k+ is disappointing.

Unless you're agreeing with me, in which case nevermind lol. Doesn't read that way though.

Who is "the same group"? Outside of maybe 2 people no one is saying the sales are bad, but hey lets start pointless argument.

 

[jcm]

They get $49 from Gamestop for every game sold per the CEO. Those numbers are nothing but fuzzy math. It was internally published which means the return is all in house. At $35 they would already be over 20 million. Double overseas and they already looking at $40 million at $35 in six days.

That $49 number is interesting, and I hadn't seen it. Do you have a link?

During the earnings call, they said the ads during the NFL conference championship games cost the equivalent of 50K units, so I guess they cost $2.5M.

 

[Busaiku]

Uhh..of course they see it. That's why they never develop or release anything requiring any substantive advertising budget. Should NMH2 probably have done better..yes. Was it ever going to chart or even do 100K in its first month? No.

Didn't the original did 108k in its first month?

 

[schuelma]

And here we go . . . they are not trying hard enough . . . oh wait, it got 90/100.

Go ahead, bash me. But you can't bash reality.

Yes, because a non advertised Suda 51 game should have set things on fire. A regular Mass Effect it is.

Like I said, it probably should have done more in line with the original (60K IIRC), but the notion that this game was going to explode in sales when Ubisoft acted like it did not exist is absurd, and yet completely unsurprising given your post history in this thread.

 

[Tiduz]

Yeah thats just plain classy...

its called a joke.

ps3 is my favorite system. but then again, i dont give two shits about sale numbers.

 

[JDSN]

And here we go . . . they are not trying hard enough . . . oh wait, it got 90/100.

Go ahead, bash me. But you can't bash reality.

Of course, all three titles did have low marketing budgets, which is likely the wrong strategy to use when attempting to target the Wii consumer, even if you are targeting the “core” market.

Reality, indeed.

 

[BattleMonkey]

Heavy Rain doesn't have a chance, it wont even chart next month I bet. Be realistic people.

 

[schuelma]

Didn't the original did 108k in its first month?

No

 

[gregor7777]

Who is "the same group"? Outside of maybe 2 people no one is saying the sales are bad, but hey lets start pointless argument.

I can't be fussed to look back over, but it's more than two and several are your usual suspects. Let's not kid, we know them. Saying their names out loud will summon them back from where they lurk.

 

[ShogunX]

As others have mentioned, we get the same shit every month about how a game is good and will have legs on word of mouth. It rarely happens.

The just killed themselves by releasing ME2 in January. It always had more potential than DAO. It should have been prioritized. Or delayed into March. People don't spend in January.

The 360 version and the US sales will account for most of the game's sales. If you figure $35 wholesale for the game, it hasn't cleared $20 million on the 360. With marketing, it probably cost more than $50 million. They may make their money back, but breaking even on a $50 million dollar investment is bad business.

What the hell where you expecting it to chart at with 6 days of sales? 572.1K is an excellent start. The game isn't an FPS where people rush out to buy it because they have to be online day 1. The game will have decent legs and almost certainly appear in next months NPD again.

What the hell is GAF coming to when people are claiming 572.1K in 6 days is a disappointment? I just cant help feeling your going to be eating crow next month as well as down the line regarding ME2.

I can't be fussed to look back over, but it's more than two and several are your usual suspects. Let's not kid, we know them. Saying their names out loud will summon them back from where they lurk.

Ah right. That explains that one then.

 

[ivysaur12]

No shit No More Heroes 2 bombed. I didn't even realize the game even came out until a week after it was released :lol

 

[FrankT]

Heavy Rain doesn't have a chance, it wont even chart next month I bet. Be realistic people.

It's got a chance to hit the top 7-10 I'd say.

 

[Mrbob]

such as? and how much is "decent'?

Recently Batman did. Mass Effect 1 did. Fallout 3 had a decent second month too. Those are three. I think if ME2 can do 50 to 60 percent sales in 'month two' that would be fine. I'm expecting 300 to 350k for feb 2010 npd. It ME2 Feb 10 sales are less than that then I would agree sales are disappointing, considering the first one did around 480K in its first month and around 400K in its second month.

Certain games have longer tails than others, and historically Bioware games (and Bethesda products) have had a pretty long sales tail.

 

[NeoUltima]

Marketing Budget!

People must know the game exists to buy it!

I just solved the industries Wii woes. Million dollars please!

:lol :lol

 

[Somnia]

I wouldn't bet on it, but I would be very surprised if Heavy Rain breaks 100k.

This is the type of game you would rent.

Be ready to be surprised then.

 

[Barrett2]

Holy shit :lol

 

[Gospel]

Core Games on Wii Continue To Struggle
No More Heroes 2: Desperate Struggle has scored top reviews averaging a 90 (out of 100) since its release. However, sales came less than 30,000 units for its first week (January 26, 2010 release). Given that the game is more targeted to the traditional core gamers (who tend to be more attached to the Xbox 360 and PS3) this is yet another sign that the Wii is a difficult device for third party publishers to succeed on with M Rated titles. Other titles that have failed to perform despite strong review scores on the Wii include Dead Space: Extraction (ERTS) and MadWorld (Sega). Of course, all three titles did have low marketing budgets, which is likely the wrong strategy to use when attempting to target the Wii consumer, even if you are targeting the “core” market.