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[BishopLamont]

Maybe he does, I didn't know it, but I still remember Iwata's comments about underwhelming sales of Wii Music.

Its failure is magnified because Nintendo was relying on it to be a break out hit and carry the Wii back in 08, alongside Animal Crossing. They've seem to have learnt a few things since then, so it's served some purpose.

 

[Vinci]

It's failure is magnified because Nintendo was relying on it to be a break out hit and carry the Wii back in 08, alongside Animal Crossing. They've seem to have learnt a few things since then, so it's served some purpose.

Exactly. It wasn't a system-seller. That's why it disappointed them.

 

[Mrbob]

GT series also has strong worldwide appeal, so this helps.

GT4 lagged a little behind the other GT games in the USA I believe. But GT5 is the first GT on a new system so they usually make a good splash. I expect GT5 sales in USA will be better than GT4, and GT sales have always stayed consistently strong in Europe. If the game can sell around a million in Japan this would be good as well.

I think a November release helps as well to build hype. Sony can get two massive months of sales, and GT games have always had good legs. If Sony is smart they should have a $349 250 gig GT5 bundle ready for release on Nov 2 with the game. Probably would sell more than their $399 Move bundle.

 

[Mr. B Natural]

Ahahaha, golden. You might wanna check up some sales before you participate in sales-age.

I didn't say sales, I said return on investment. This is something that I obviously can't know, but only predict, but it was pretty obvious to me that wii music cost very very little to make and the galaxy series is one of the bigger budget games nintendo has to offer for the wii.

Still I quite easily say that nintendo spent less money making the likes of a game that uses avatars than a galaxy game with amazing graphics, full orchestrated soundtrack and tons and tons of original full 3d content. Not only did wii sports resort outsell galaxy, but it cost less to make. That's a double whammy.

^ my cousins are truly casual gamers as in they might play 1 game a year and for a few minutes a week. They don't get the 3d thing just like your dad or mom probably can't seem to get it. I've yet to see a truly casual 3d platformer in my life. I guess it's hard for gaffers to understand what it really means to be casual, but if you can remember what it was like first playing mario 64 back in the day and it tripped you out, that might be as close to the sensation they feel trying to understand mario 64 + trippy concepts and perspectives.

 

[Dr. Zoidberg]

Well Remedy was working on the PC version from 2005 until February 2010 so i dont know how much porting they would have needed to do for that platform.

Probably not much. My opinion is that while they'd sell copies on PC they'd still be doing poorly overall. With a few exceptions, almost all the top selling non-casual games on PC have multiplayer components. At $40 or $50, this game would be a prime candidate for the "wait for Steam sale" mentality for many consumers.

Alas, we'll never know.

 

[Vinci]

^ my cousins are truly casual gamers. They don't get the 3d thing just like your dad or mom probably can't seem to get it. I've yet to see a truly casual 3d platformer in my life. I guess it's hard for gaffers to understand what it really means to be casual, but if you can remember what it was like first playing mario 64 back in the day and it tripped you out, that might be as close to the sensation they feel trying to understand mario 64 + trippy concepts and perspectives.

That's because Galaxy isn't easy to play. It goes against one of the core traditions of the 2D Mario titles: Easy to play, challenging to beat. I don't blame people when they get frustrated - the designers are the ones who made it this way.

 

[levious]

^ my cousins are truly casual gamers. They don't get the 3d thing just like your dad or mom probably can't seem to get it. I've yet to see a truly casual 3d platformer in my life. I guess it's hard for gaffers to understand what it really means to be casual, but if you can remember what it was like first playing mario 64 back in the day and it tripped you out, that might be as close to the sensation they feel trying to understand mario 64 + trippy concepts and perspectives.

but they're kids, if they can't ever get it something's wrong. Unless they just aren't really into games, I don't know. I would say those corridor style 3d platformers would be a good gateway for casuals, like the original Crash or Super Magnetic Neo (although that's a hard game itself, but I just mean the style of the game).

 

[Truespeed]

I still am convinced that the 360 is going to outsell the PS3 WW this year. The PS3 is only selling around 80K a month in Japan and it isn't going to get a boost from FFXIII and the slim this year. In fact i think in both Europe and the US the PS3 is going to struggle to match last years numbers without the slim bump.

I think the 360 is going to outsell the PS3 easily for the rest of this year in the US. I will wait to see the slim bump before i make a prediction on just how much suffice to say i think it will be a lot.

I think the 360 can also close the gap on the PS3 in Europe a little as well. This will depend on how much of a HW boost GT5 provides but this late in the generation i don't think it will have much impact outside of SW.

I know most people on here were predicting the PS3 to beat last years numbers and to outsell the 360 comfortably (maybe even overtake it). I personally think sony will struggle to match last years numbers without the massive slim bump they got WW last year.

I also expect the combination of a price drop, natal, halo and the slim to have a bigger impact that MS's efforts last year which consisted of basically nothing.

Of course the wii will still be outselling them both:lol



What are your expectations for GT5?

I am expecting it to fail to reach 10 million WW (possibly by a couple of million) and become comfortably the worst selling iteration in the franchise. This on top of it's huge budget and development time will absoltely be a disappointment.

Wait a second, didn't you say in your previous message that GT5 would "sorta sell OK"? Well, if "sorta selling OK" equates to around 8 million copies for a platform exclusive racing game then I would sort of consider that a resounding success. Also, I wouldn't worry too much about the development budget for GT5 as it's already been 'paid' for by the people that bought Prologue. As for my expectations, 8-9 million WW and a significant boost in WW HW sales. This is likely to be the only real system seller in the life of the PS3.

 

[EagleEyes]

GT series also has strong worldwide appeal, so this helps.

GT4 lagged a little behind the other GT games in the USA I believe. But GT5 is the first GT on a new system so they usually make a good splash. I expect GT5 sales in USA will be better than GT4, and GT sales have always stayed consistently strong in Europe. If the game can sell around a million in Japan this would be good as well.

I think a November release helps as well to build hype. Sony can get two massive months of sales, and GT games have always had good legs. If Sony is smart they should have a $349 250 gig GT5 bundle ready for release on Nov 2 with the game. Probably would sell more than their $399 Move bundle.

The only problem is the competition in software that month. GT5 at best will be the 4th or 5th best selling game in November. I'm sure it will have legs in Europe but definitely not here in NPDland.

 

[Mrbob]

But the 4th and 5th best selling game can do over 500K. GT5 should cruise past one million sold easily in Nov and Dec. Then you have sales in Europe which will be stronger, and still decent sales in Japan.

GT5 won't stop selling on Jan 1, 2011.

Again, it is the first GT on a new console. The first game usually sells the best.

 

[speculawyer]

So even the PS3 version of RDR outsells SMG2 . . .

RED DEAD REDEMPTION 360 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE May-10 945.9K
RED DEAD REDEMPTION PS3 TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE May-10 567.1K
SUPER MARIO GALAXY 2 WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA May-10 563.9K

But Pachter manages to spin it as negative. WTF Pachter? . . . don't shit on RDR just because YOU got your initial projections wrong (way too low) AND your revised projections (too high) wrong! Sheesh.

THE ANALYSIS: Though "Red Dead" was the top-selling game in May, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter said it came in below expectations. The game sold 1.5 million units; Pachter was expecting 1.8 million.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/TakeTwo-shares-climb-after-apf-4175913564.html?x=0&.v=2

 

[MiamiWesker]

When it comes to fighting games, Capcom will be fine. Both versions of SF4 sold well enough and even Tatsunoko v. Capcom managed to sell past expectations and have relatively decent legs. MvC3 will sell based on hype alone.

But I'm pretty worried about their other efforts at this point. While I really don't want them to fall back into old habits (Re-hashing Resident Evil and Mega Man by the year), they're definitely setting themselves back to square one with these consecutive super bombas. Bionic Commando and Dark Void might have encountered problems due to their outsourcing strategy, but Lost Planet 2 was mostly a result of bad decisions by Capcom internally. I wonder how Capcom will handle things if Dead Rising 2 also bombs, especially since their big hitters (Mega Man, Resident Evil, Devil May Cry) are MIA at the moment.

They could bring back older, popular franchises and see how that goes (Onimusha and maybe Breath of Fire), but something at Capcom has definitely gone wrong in the past year or so.

Also, how much did Monster Hunter 3 sell anyway?

Their best people left. Now they have this crappy theory to make every game fit for the west and it will end up hurting them.

 

[Mrbob]

So even the PS3 version of RDR outsells SMG2 . . .


But Pachter manages to spin it as negative. WTF Pachter? . . . don't shit on RDR just because YOU got your initial projections wrong (way too low) AND your revised projections (too high) wrong! Sheesh.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/TakeTwo-shares-climb-after-apf-4175913564.html?x=0&.v=2

Hahaha, maybe he does have it out for Take Two? :lol I could have sworn he thought it would do a million, and now I see he is saying 1.8?

Red Dead sales were very strong. This is the strongest first month for a non GTA Rockstar/Take Two game.

 

[EagleEyes]

But the 4th and 5th best selling game can do over 500K. GT5 should cruise past one million sold easily in Nov and Dec. Then you have sales in Europe which will be stronger, and still decent sales in Japan.

GT5 won't stop selling on Jan 1, 2011.

Again, it is the first GT on a new console. The first game usually sells the best.

Never said it would stop selling. It will have great legs in Europe but over here racing games just aren't as popular anymore.

 

[Mr. B Natural]

Ah, we're talking about my cousins now! :lol Sorry sorry. I'm just gonna say that if a player is willing to commit to a game to play it then they're no longer casual. My cousins are the very definition of casual in every way.

Anyway, sorry to veer off. All i'm saying is that to me if I were an investor, I'd rather spend 3 million dollars and sell 15 million copies of something then spend 10 million to sell 6 million copies. To me, Nintendo found the sweet spot compromise of gaming between casual casual (not gaf definition of casual) and core gamers. From what I see and noticed, galaxy isn't in that spot and the sales show (cause it sure as hell isn't due to a lack of effort and quality) and a lot of games being shown at e3 weren't either and it seemed intentional. Matter of fact, I think they outright said so in the conference and after it in interviews. That surprised me. I'm sure nintendo is on to something. They're typically a step ahead.

I really don't think anything I said was wow worthy.

 

[Vinci]

Ah, we're talking about my cousins now! :lol Sorry sorry. I'm just gonna say that if a player is willing to commit to a game to play it then they're no longer casual. My cousins are the very definition of casual in every way.

Anyway, sorry to veer off. All i'm saying is that to me if I were an investor, I'd rather spend 3 million dollars and sell 15 million copies of something then spend 10 million to sell 6 million copies. To me, Nintendo found the sweet spot compromise of gaming between casual casual (not gaf definition of casual) and core gamers. To me, galaxy isn't in that spot and the sales show (cause it sure as hell isn't due to a lack of effort and quality) and a lot of games being shown at e3 weren't either and it seemed intentional. Matter of fact, I think they outright said so in the conference and after. That surprised me.

I imagine Kirby's Epic Yarn is going to be fairly easy to play. It could do pretty well given they advertise it at all.

 

[Curufinwe]

So even the PS3 version of RDR outsells SMG2 . . .


But Pachter manages to spin it as negative. WTF Pachter? . . . don't shit on RDR just because YOU got your initial projections wrong (way too low) AND your revised projections (too high) wrong! Sheesh.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/TakeTwo-shares-climb-after-apf-4175913564.html?x=0&.v=2

This is the same Pachter who blamed low sales for Blur and Split/Second on their review scores being under 80.

 

[Mr. B Natural]

I imagine Kirby's Epic Yarn is going to be fairly easy to play. It could do pretty well given they advertise it at all.

Definitely. If I gave the impression that Nintendo down right dropped the ball on my abstract "sweet spot" then I'm giving you the wrong impression. I noticed a shift this E3 not a revolution.

 

[Tiktaalik]

Their best people left. Now they have this crappy theory to make every game fit for the west and it will end up hurting them.

I don't think it's a crappy theory at all. It's not like their recent western oriented games have been stellar but didn't sell for other mysterious reasons. Capcom simply messed up the execution and didn't produce a good enough game.

 

[Omotesando]

Remedy now making Kinect games, but without the couch. It doesn't work while sitting.

Yea, I am still bitter about PC version...

 

[speculawyer]

Remedy now making Kinect games, but without the couch. It doesn't work while sitting.

Yea, I am still bitter about PC version...

Was there something in their contract that said if Alan Wake didn't sell great then they would be forced to make Kinect games? :lol

 

[AniHawk]

Wow RDR almost sold double the amount on 360.

Weird how those game always sell way more on 360 while games like UFC, skate, etc... almost sell equal across both PS3 and 360.

Well there are literally twice as many 360s in America.

 

[jetjevons]

Am I crazy to be disappointed by those SMG2 numbers? I was really hoping for a million plus first week sales. It's one of the best games I've ever played. Oh well.

 

[PSGames]

So Shadowrun outsold Allan Wake despite being released much earlier in the console cycle?

I believe Too Human outsold it as well. It's a shame MS couldn't market Alan Wake better.

 

[SapientWolf]

Am I crazy to be disappointed by those SMG2 numbers? I was really hoping for a million plus first week sales. It's one of the best games I've ever played. Oh well.

Don't worry about it. The original Mario Galaxy sold 8 million copies. It just took awhile.

 

[JaxJag]

This is the same Pachter who blamed low sales for Blur and Split/Second on their review scores being under 80.

No, not under.

The review scores only being 80.

 

[jmdajr]

wow..red dead sold a ton

 

[Lyude77]

I imagine Kirby's Epic Yarn is going to be fairly easy to play. It could do pretty well given they advertise it at all.

Another good thing about Kirby is that it has co-op, which is something most of the Wii best sellers have. Donkey Kong Country Revisited should do well too (because of the same reasons).

 

[jmdajr]

also..how about a psp price drop

 

[onipex]

I don't know if you saw additional sales data, but 360 software sales are up healthily this month. PS3 software sales are way up, and Wii software sales are almost 25 percent down. This is including Mario Galaxy 2 being released in the month. So something is going on to have a downward spiral for Wii software sales when they had a heavy hitter out.

Where did you see that? I only saw that the 360 attach rate was up and the PS3 software revenue was up. When were solid numbers released for either?

I also can't find any mention of the Wii software being down this month so please post a source for all of this.

Thanks

 

[Vinci]

Another good thing about Kirby is that it has co-op, which is something most of the Wii best sellers have. Donkey Kong Country Revisited should do well too (because of the same reasons).

I don't know how DKCR controls, however, so it's hard to compare and contrast - but yes, the multiplayer helps and is reasonably distinctive in both cases to what is present in NSMB Wii.

 

[Flyguy]

Where did you see that? I only saw that the 360 attach rate was up and the PS3 software revenue was up. When were solid numbers released for either?

I also can't find any mention of the Wii software being down this month so please post a source for all of this.

Thanks

“Wii software sales were down 29 per cent year-over-year and DS software sales were down 13 per cent, while PS3 software sales were up 58 per cent and Xbox 360 software sales were up 29 per cent,” he added.

http://www.mcvuk.com/news/39854/Pach...manent-decline

 

[-tetsuo-]

I also think that Galaxy is a little much for the younger kids. They come into the arcade all the time and play. After about 10 minutes of me watching them run around aimlessly not knowing what to do, they come and ask for something else.

 

[DMeisterJ]

more stuff

I see your problem... You're comparing GT5 to previous GT's when you need to understand that comparing games across generations is never going to yield positive results because of how much has changed over previous years... Userbases have split, game prices have risen, dev costs have risen, and these all factor into how well a game does. GT5 may be the lowest selling game of the series, but it will be one of the highest of this year and this generation, and that's what's important. Not how much it sold compared to previous games, but how much it sold now, and how much it brought in now. It's a game that will sell 8-9 million copies. That will bring in a metric fuckton of profit, and even though it may bring in less than before, it's not relevant because fluctuations have always happened in the GT universe. The sales went 12-10-14-11 million from GT1-GT4 (from their website). Do you think that Sony were worried or sad that GT2 and 4 sold less than their immediate predecessors? No, cause who is sad that a game only sold 10 million copies?

The only people that are going to be worried about the game only selling 9 million copies are people who don't understand how unimportant that fact is. The lack of growth is fine as long as you are maintaining sales good, and hemmoraging 1 million units of sales across generations when they've lost so much more actual owners is not a bad thing. I'm not sure why you're trying to paint selling 9 million copies of anything a bad thing, but it's definitely not the case, no matter what previous games have sold.

 

[charlequin]

I didn't say sales, I said return on investment.

Your argument completely ignores the possibility of limited opportunity windows, though. Sure, if Nintendo literally had the decision of getting back an $X dollar return for each dollar spent on SMG games or $X x 3 dollars back for each dollar spent on Wii * products, yes, it would be a bad investment, but Nintendo can't spend unlimited dollars on Wii * products -- they need a new, unique, and good hook for each one, they need to avoid saturating the market or turning off their new expanded audience with a bad release, they need to have a clear space on the calendar in which to extensively market it, etc.

Given those factors, I think it's quite likely that there's basically a cap on how much money Nintendo can actually get a nongame-sized return on during any given year, and their goal then has to be to find a diverse set of options, each with a decent return themselves, to spread the remainder of their investment over. SMG2 -- an extremely un-risky release with a reused engine that is nonetheless going on to sell multiple millions worldwide -- strikes me as a very good choice as part of such a strategy.

(This is also why the idea that Nintendo would have ever given up on "real" games entirely and made only nongames going forward never made any sense to me.)

 

[CadetMahoney]

Eh, you shouldn't feel so bad. I always get my generic white male protagonists mixed up as well.

hmm, guess someone should post up that other jpg again.

 

[WillyFive]

Am I crazy to be disappointed by those SMG2 numbers? I was really hoping for a million plus first week sales. It's one of the best games I've ever played. Oh well.

Nintendo games don't have great opening numbers, they get their sales by not leaving the Top 10.

 

[Littleberu]

Was there something in their contract that said if Alan Wake didn't sell great then they would be forced to make Kinect games? :lol

I think it was a JOKE.

 

[charlequin]

Well, if "sorta selling OK" equates to around 8 million copies for a platform exclusive racing game then I would sort of consider that a resounding success.

Much like the PS3's own success must be viewed in comparison to expectations and previous performance, so too must GT5's. Selling 8 million copies worldwide is indeed quite extraordinary for a generic game outside of context, but for a series where every previous main entry has sold 10m+, one even reaching as high as 15m, it represents a fairly significant downgrade.

Sony isn't just relying on GT5 to not lose money; it's relying on it to be a cash cow, to be the sort of guaranteed hit that pays for tons of other games and product decisions that lost money. When its budget goes up (pretty clearly this has happened) and its sales go down (this part still has yet to be seen) that's a bad result for the company even if the project on its own is still quite profitable.

 

[charlequin]

I don't think it's a crappy theory at all. It's not like their recent western oriented games have been stellar but didn't sell for other mysterious reasons. Capcom simply messed up the execution and didn't produce a good enough game.

The part you are missing, IMO, is that their desire to make these games "Western" is the proximate cause of the poor execution.

The lack of growth is fine as long as you are maintaining sales good, and hemmoraging 1 million units of sales across generations when they've lost so much more actual owners is not a bad thing.

But on its last generational crossover, GT didn't hemorrhage users, it clawed back users that it had lost on its second release and in fact went on to be the series' best-selling entry.

 

[NeoUltima]

also..how about a psp price drop

Little incentive to lose money on hardware when the install base barely buys any games.

 

[HK-47]

Based on previous main versions' sales it will be a slight disappointment. But honestly, there's no reason to doubt that GT5 can't do 10 million+ over its life.

GT3 launched will barely 15 million PS2's out in the wild, and that went over 14 million. GT5 will be releasing with around 40-45 million PS3's released, so there's no reason why GT5 should be the lowest selling installment of the main series.

Wasnt it bundled with the PS2 for a large portion of its early life...

 

[HK-47]

The part you are missing, IMO, is that their desire to make these games "Western" is the proximate cause of the poor execution.



But on its last generational crossover, GT didn't hemorrhage users, it clawed back users that it had lost on its second release and in fact went on to be the series' best-selling entry.

Or not Western enough. Like LP2 missing many things expected to be standard in a TPS.

 

[CadetMahoney]

Wow RDR almost sold double the amount on 360.

Weird how those game always sell way more on 360 while games like UFC, skate, etc... almost sell equal across both PS3 and 360.

UFC2009 sold much more on the 360 than the PS3. Sony tried to entice more customers with buying exclusive deals but still lost. That and the UFC series just is losing steam with yearly iterations imo.

 

[DMeisterJ]

But on its last generational crossover, GT didn't hemorrhage users, it clawed back users that it had lost on its second release and in fact went on to be the series' best-selling entry.

And that was on the back of the hugely successful PS2. The PS3 isn't the PS2. Sony is not expecting GT5 to perform like GT3. Realistically, GT5 selling 8-9 million copies would be amazing compared to previous games, and compared to gaming as a whole. There should not be anyone disappointed if GT5 sells only 9 million copies, nor should that be looked at as anything other than a resounding success. That number is easly 300-400 million in revenue, and enough to finance this game and many more. Selling 9 million copies of GT5 is about as far from a bad thing as it can get. I don't get how anyone could argue otherwise.

 

[jkanownik]

So even the PS3 version of RDR outsells SMG2 . . .


But Pachter manages to spin it as negative. WTF Pachter? . . . don't shit on RDR just because YOU got your initial projections wrong (way too low) AND your revised projections (too high) wrong! Sheesh.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/TakeTwo-shares-climb-after-apf-4175913564.html?x=0&.v=2

The estimate was revised up based on the public shipment information Take Two released. Pachter had to adjust his estimate for new information that appeared. The fact that it came in below his expectations has a negative impact on future shipments. It's all about the audience he is addressing and it makes perfect sense.

 

[KingDizzi]

Much like the PS3's own success must be viewed in comparison to expectations and previous performance, so too must GT5's. Selling 8 million copies worldwide is indeed quite extraordinary for a generic game outside of context, but for a series where every previous main entry has sold 10m+, one even reaching as high as 15m, it represents a fairly significant downgrade.

Sony isn't just relying on GT5 to not lose money; it's relying on it to be a cash cow, to be the sort of guaranteed hit that pays for tons of other games and product decisions that lost money. When its budget goes up (pretty clearly this has happened) and its sales go down (this part still has yet to be seen) that's a bad result for the company even if the project on its own is still quite profitable.

Indeed it's more than clear that Sony has much riding on the success of GT5. Budget wise those 4.7 million shipped must have covered much of the budget even if were very generous and say that 1 million of those sold were bundles. Say Sony got $5 for every copy of GT5 and 3 million were purchased then that is $150 million which is far beyond GT5 costs if what Yamauchi said is anything to go by.

Kind of finding it hard to figure out why people think GT5 will have a decrease in sales compared to previous GT mainline games. Racing sims besides GT have never sold well and that trend has not changed this generation. The closest competition GT has is Forza and I don't think one of those titles has even beaten even GT5 sales yet. Corny as it sounds Gran Turismo is very much car culture and that has not changed at all. Install base for the PS3 is not too flashy however it's not much of a metric to go by, were that the case GT4 would be on 30 million sales by now.

Broken record here but a lot will also depend on the additions of WRC, NASCAR, Super GT and in particular the online. If the latter is quality GT5 will have no problem selling 10 million lifetime.

 

[Kodiak]

I wonder how many among the 1.5 mil will ever get to the best final hours of pretty much any game ever.

 

[3rdman]

I believe Too Human outsold it as well. It's a shame MS couldn't market Alan Wake better.

I'm sure if the game was actually better than average, they would but as it was, the game simply didn't deserve it.

 

[Beer Monkey]

I'm sure if the game was actually better than average, they would but as it was, the game simply didn't deserve it.

Metacritic of 83, most people here at GAF seem to think it is 'better than average', most podcasters that I listen to seem to think it is better than average.

'Average' is a pretty low bar in the game business. Most games are awful.