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[donny2112]

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Monday, November 7th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: October 2-29 (4 weeks, September was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: November 11th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:

[360]
[3DS]
[NDS]
[PS3]
[WII]

Good/Bad Formatting

Good              Bad
[360] 400K        [360] 400 thousand
[360] 400,000     [360] 400.000
[360] 400000      [360] - 400000

Potential hardware impacting events in October:


September's Results - thanks to EviLore/Nirolak/jvm

Hardware
Xbox 360: 438K (PR) [-9.5%]
Playstation 3: 373K (From jvm's thread)
Nintendo 3DS: 260K (PR)
Wii: 240K (PR) [-5.5%]
Nintendo DS: 145K (PR) [-64%]

Sep-10 -> Oct-10 transition:

      Sep-10  Oct-10   % change
360     484K    325K   - 33%
NDS     403K    342K   - 15%
PS3     312K    250K   - 20%
WII     254K    232K   -  9%

NPD Prediction Thread Archive

Note:
NOA reported that the first three weeks of October for Wii were better than the first three weeks of October 2010 for Wii.

 

[Thoraxes]

[360] 436K
[3DS] 336K
[NDS] 179K
[PS3] 366K
[WII] 146K

I'm just going out on a limb for some of these now. I've been pretty off on others recently that weren't the Nintendo products.

 

[Dedication Through Light]

[360] 390K
[3DS] 250K
[NDS] 180K
[PS3] 360K
[WII] 250K

I was gonna ask what the oct - nov changeover for 2010 was just for curiosity sakes, the Sept to Oct, makes it seem like people stopped buying hardware in preparation for the holiday.

 

[Megadragon15]

[360] 380K
[3DS] 240K
[NDS] 160K
[PS3] 270K
[WII] 200K

 

[Averon]

[360] 387k
[3DS] 180k
[NDS] 155k
[PS3] 312k
[WII] 225k

 

[Zero-Crescent]

[360] 330K
[3DS] 215K
[NDS] 120K
[PS3] 300K
[WII] 220K

 

[Kung Fu Grip]

[360] 502K
[PS3]420K
[3DS] 315K
[NDS] 217K
[WII] 236K

 

[Goldmund]

[360] 360,000
[3DS] 200,000
[NDS] 100,000
[PS3] 310,000
[WII] 210,000

I've no idea what I'm doing anymore.

 

[frankie_baby]

[360] 390K
[3DS] 250K
[NDS] 180K
[PS3] 360K
[WII] 250K

I was gonna ask what the oct - nov changeover for 2010 was just for curiosity sakes, the Sept to Oct, makes it seem like people stopped buying hardware in preparation for the holiday.

September is 5 weeks though so that probably accounts for the drop

 

[jvm]

360 387k
PS3 312k
Wii 225k
NDS 155k
3DS 180k

Check the OP for proper formatting, or your entry won't count.

 

[Zeppelin]

[360] 455K
[3DS] 230K
[NDS] 115K
[PS3] 375K
[WII] 255K

 

[Erethian]

Surprised at a few of the Wii predictions considering it's a four week month and the Wii sold more in the first three weeks than it did last year for the corresponding period.

Unless people missed that bit at the bottom of donny's post.

 

[CrankyKong]

[360] 480K
[3DS] 290K
[NDS] 125K
[PS3] 360K
[WII] 260K

 

[Goldmund]

Check the OP for proper formatting, or your entry won't count.

Shh!, I might climb back up in the ranking, if more people format their entries in this fashion.

 

[Madao]

[360] 400K
[3DS] 240K
[NDS] 130K
[PS3] 340K
[WII] 220K

i don't think 3DS will get a real pickup until nov/dec when it gets its heavy hitters.

 

[Osuwari]

[360] 380K
[3DS] 250K
[NDS] 120K
[PS3] 350K
[WII] 240K

 

[tonitoni]

[360] 380K
[3DS] 220K
[NDS] 160K
[PS3] 310K
[WII] 200K

 

[confuziz]

[360] 420K
[3DS] 260K
[NDS] 110K
[PS3] 300K
[WII] 280K

 

[walking fiend]

[360] 315K
[3DS] 245K
[NDS] 125K
[PS3] 295K
[WII] 260K

and lol@:

Potential hardware impacting events in October [2010]:
PSPgo price drop $199 - October 25

 

[Coxy]

[360] 400k
[3DS] 250k
[NDS] 150k
[PS3] 375k
[WII] 260k

 

[Jokeropia]

[360] 350k
[3DS] 220k
[NDS] 120k
[PS3] 300k
[WII] 250k

 

[donny2112]

Keeping it visible for those wishing to predict...

 

[donny2112]

[360] 310K
[3DS] 240K
[NDS] 180K
[PS3] 280K
[WII] 270K

 

[orion434]

[360] 400K
[3DS] 225K
[NDS] 150K
[PS3] 300K
[WII] 250K

 

[walking fiend]

we don't have SW prediction, do we? Next month's Dance Central performance is particularly interesting to me.


btw, is it ok to revise predictions?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

[360] 350k
[3DS] 260k
[NDS] 100k
[PS3] 260k
[WII] 270k

 

[MasterShotgun]

[360] 390K
[3DS] 220K
[NDS] 120K
[PS3] 340K
[WII] 245K

Battlefield 3 is going to dominate the software charts.

 

[UberTag]

we don't have SW prediction, do we? Next month's Dance Central performance is particularly interesting to me.

With only 5 days of sales being tracked I wouldn't expect Dance Central 2 to chart in the multi-SKU NPD Top 10. Everyone was too busy playing Battlefield 3 to notice its release.

The "evil site" has it tracking ahead of Kinect Sports: Season Two for what it's worth. I think it'll do fine so Harmonix won't be filing for bankruptcy just yet.

 

[Hiro_Kunimi_80]

360] 350K
[3DS] 200K
[NDS] 140K
[PS3] 270K
[WII] 250K

 

[donny2112]

btw, is it ok to revise predictions?

Yeah. Predictions don't get collected until the cutoff time, so they can be revised any point before that.

 

[walking fiend]

With only 5 days of sales being tracked I wouldn't expect Dance Central 2 to chart in the multi-SKU NPD Top 10. Everyone was too busy playing Battlefield 3 to notice its release.

The "evil site" has it tracking ahead of Kinect Sports: Season Two for what it's worth. I think it'll do fine so Harmonix won't be filing for bankruptcy just yet.

Definitely, but:

we don't have SW prediction, do we? Next month's Dance Central performance is particularly interesting to me.

I also think it will be doing pretty good in the USA for at least November.

Yeah. Predictions don't get collected until the cutoff time, so they can be revised any point before that.

thx!

 

[donny2112]

Just over 2 days left to predict for October's NPD.

 

[Orgen]

[360] 346K
[3DS] 278K
[NDS] 131K
[PS3] 289K
[WII] 272K

 

[jvm]

[360] 375K
[PS3] 305K
[WII] 250K
[3DS] 215K
[NDS] 125K

Notes:

• Really odd writing down an NDS figure that low.
• I'm going with NDS + 3DS = constant to last year, as my general rule, for the time being. We'll see if it pans out again this month.
• Can the Wii really eke out a win over last October? I guess, but seems weird. Not sure how else to take their statements to investors.
• I felt like I did ok on units last month, but the ordering score killed me. Hoping for better this month.

 

[Elios83]

[360] 320K
[PS3] 300K
[WII] 250K
[3DS] 210K
[NDS] 120K

 

[starship]

[360] 270K
[PS3] 240K
[WII] 290K
[3DS] 300K
[NDS] 150K

 

[SuperBanjo]

[360] 370K
[3DS] 210K
[NDS] 125K
[PS3] 300K
[WII] 250K

 

[Indyana]

[360] 340K
[3DS] 225K
[NDS] 130K
[PS3] 290K
[WII] 250K

 

[Jonsoncao]

[360] 360k
[3DS] 210k
[NDS] 120k
[PS3] 310k
[WII] 200k

 

[rostocker]

[360] 399K
[PS3] 320K
[WII] 222K
[3DS] 233K
[NDS] 117K

 

[NateDrake]

[360] 375K
[3DS] 330K
[NDS] 169K
[PS3] 300K
[WII] 226K

 

[Ydahs]

[360] 383K
[3DS] 246K
[NDS] 151K
[PS3] 333K
[WII] 242K

 

[archnemesis]

[360] 340k
[3DS] 220k
[NDS] 155k
[PS3] 295k
[WII] 260k

 

[LOCK]

[360] 340k
[3DS] 260k
[NDS] 125k
[PS3] 310k
[WII] 290k

So Battlefield won't be counted this month or will it...?

 

[pitseleh]

[360] 365k
[3DS] 210k
[NDS] 140k
[PS3] 290k
[WII] 260k

 

[walking fiend]

[360] 310k
[3DS] 260k
[NDS] 125k
[PS3] 280k
[WII] 290k

So Battlefield won't be counted this month or will it...?

why not?

 

[Nemo]

[360] 450k
[3DS] 210k
[NDS] 140k
[PS3] 300k
[WII] 245k

 

[eastmen]

[360] 310k
[3DS] 260k
[NDS] 125k
[PS3] 280k
[WII] 290k

So Battlefield won't be counted this month or will it...?

the game came out the 25th and this goes through the 29th so you get 4 days of numbers

 

[baekshi]

[360] 394k
[3DS] 210k
[NDS] 121k
[PS3] 380k
[WII] 210k

 

[DarkestLight]

[360] 320K
[3DS] 220K
[NDS] 130K
[PS3] 280K
[WII] 210K