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[Mojovonio]

ouch!

 

[Epiphyte]

sonycowboy has taken the stage.

sonycowboy is taking a bow.

 

[Souldriver]

Sonycowboy got shot.


Wait a minute....sonycowboy!!

Wtf is going on!!!

:lol

 

[Haunted]

6:40 The room is filling up
6:50 I'm getting my seat. HOLY SHIT! Reggie's right behind me and he looks happy
6:51 The numbers are entering the room....
6:52 The Killers are playing in the background.
6:53 There seems to be some glitch with the beta...

You're a cruel, cruel man, you know that?

 

[Corwood Rep]

So are we doing the numbers in this thread or a new one?

P.S. OMGOMGOMGOMG FROTHING DEMAND INCREASES

 

[JDSN]

6:40 The room is filling up
6:50 I'm getting my seat. HOLY SHIT! Reggie's right behind me and he looks happy
6:51 The numbers are entering the room....
6:52 The Killers are playing in the background.
6:53 There seems to be some glitch with the beta...

HOLY SHIT SHIGGY YOU ARE THE MAN YOU ARE THE MAN111!1

 

[Merovingian]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=156698

GBA served the PS3

 

[apujanata]

1. NDS - 500K
2. WII - 380K
3. 360 - 200K
4. PS2 - 200K
5. PSP - 190K
6. GBA - 110K
7. PS3 - 95K
8. GCN - 11K
9. XBX - 300 (if it is still tracked)

Edit : Increased NDS from 440K to 500K (forgot about Pokemon and increased manufacturing capabilities). Also changed some of the numbers based on my actual result from March Prediction.

My difference is : 139K. Hopefully it is good enough to get the Top 5.

March 2007 Top 5 :
1. Xisiqomelir - 133K
2. Dice Man - 158K
3. the thoroughbred - 166K
4. jet1911 - 177K
5. LOCK - 186K

 

[donny2112]

Here's a meltdown score card...

1) GBA > PS3 (1 point, should be more but we should accept GBA's undying resistance)
2) PS3 below 100,000 (3 points)
3) PS3 below 90,000 (3 extra points)
4) Xbox 360 below 200,000 with the advent of Elite (3 points)
5) Xbox 360 below 175,000 (3 extra points)
6) PSP below 200,000 with full month of price drop (1 point)
7) Xbox 360 > Wii (10 points)

I think we're gonna get 14 points on the meltdown scale.

Parl was right about getting 14 points from that scale. :lol


April 2007 NPD Prediction Results - 7 main consoles only

1. BuzzJive - 108K
2. Tf53 - 109K
3. speculawyer - 118K
4. Dimmuxx - 121K
5. apujanata - 127K
6. DayShallCome - 130K
7. Mallika - 135K
8. argon - 153K
8. Giddeon - 153K
10. donny2112 - 154K


Congratulations, BuzzJive!


Bonus Results - Wii, PS3, and 360 only

1. sonycowboy - 17K
2. chibcicylist - 24K
2. corez - 24K
2. Rancid Mildew - 24K
2. jarrod - 24K


Pachter did much better this month ranking at number 25 out of 160.

 

[Jokeropia]

Parl was right about getting 14 points from that scale. :lol

Haha, not bad. :lol

 

[BuzzJive]

Congratulations, BuzzJive!

WOO HOO.

Thanks to those of you that go through the trouble of tallying the results. We all appreciate the work.

I'm going for 2 months in a row - then I'm going to start selling my "data" to Pachter...

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

Parl was right about getting 14 points from that scale. :lol
)

I'm counting 11. He just barely missed with that second 360 note of less than 175K in sales.

Edit: Oh man, I see, that's just awful. We might need to start a how low can the 360 go pic.

 

[Meier]

239k off. Underestimated the Wii a good bit and handily overestimated the 360 (whenever I do compete in these, this seems to be a trend for me.. oops).

 

[donny2112]

He just barely missed with that second 360 note of less than 175K in sales.

The 360 sold 174K in April.

 

[Parl]

The 360 sold 174K in April.

Nice.

If you exclude Wii, I was only 74k off predictions too. Damn you, Nintendo, for over shipping Wii! Supply constrained consoles always screw me up. I should stick to meltdown predictions.

 

[apujanata]

April 2007 NPD Prediction Results - 7 main consoles only

1. BuzzJive - 108K
2. Tf53 - 109K
3. speculawyer - 118K
4. Dimmuxx - 121K
5. apujanata - 127K
6. DayShallCome - 130K
7. Mallika - 135K
8. argon - 153K
8. Giddeon - 153K
10. donny2112 - 154K


Congratulations, BuzzJive!


Bonus Results - Wii, PS3, and 360 only

1. sonycowboy - 17K
2. chibcicylist - 24K
2. corez - 24K
2. Rancid Mildew - 24K
2. jarrod - 24K


Pachter did much better this month ranking at number 25 out of 160.

I am happy that I got #5.

BTW, I am going post later the overall result of march Top10 and April Top10, in which I will list the April result of March Top10, and March result of April Top 10, so we can get a leaderboard of the all Top10 predictor.

Sample :
Name : March 07, April 07 : Total
Xisiqomelir : 133,000, 442,000 : 575,000
Dice Man : 158,000, N/A : 158,000 *
LOCK : 186,000, 840,000 : 1,026,000
Heidir : 198,000, 231,000 : 429,000
Bildi : 202,000, 214,000 : 416,000
speculawyer : N/A, 118,000 : 118,000 *
apujanata : 238,000 , 127,000 : 365,000
donny2112 : 334,500, 154,000 : 488,500

* means the person have some missing month(s) of prediction, which mean he could not be ranked (because of incomplete data).

 

[xabre]

Pachter did much better this month ranking at number 25 out of 160.

What about the rest of the results? 11 through 160?

If you tallied them you might as well post them. I want to see where I placed.

 

[apujanata]

Complete List of Top 10 Predictor (have both March and April)
User ID	Mar-07	Apr-07	Total	Months#	Total	Rank
apujanata	 238,000 	 127,000 	 365,000 	2	 365,000 	1
buzzjive	 277,000 	 108,000 	 385,000 	2	 385,000 	2
Bildi	 202,000 	 214,000 	 416,000 	2	 416,000 	3
Heidir	 198,000 	 231,000 	 429,000 	2	 429,000 	4
Tf53	 346,000 	 109,000 	 455,000 	2	 455,000 	5
DSWii60	 197,000 	 280,000 	 477,000 	2	 477,000 	6
donny2112	 334,500 	 154,000 	 488,500 	2	 488,500 	7
argon	 342,000 	 153,000 	 495,000 	2	 495,000 	8
Dayshallcome 391,000 	 130,000 	 521,000 	2	 521,000 	9
Miniboss1232 197,000 	 355,000 	 552,000 	2	 552,000 	10
TheKurgan	 188,000 	 384,000 	 572,000 	2	 572,000 	11
Xisiqomelir	 133,000 	 442,000 	 575,000 	2	 575,000 	12
LOCK 186,000 	 840,000 	 1,026,000 	2	 1,026,000 	13

Incomplete List (don't have both March and April)
User ID		Mar-07	Apr-07	Total	Months#
Dice Man	 	158,000 	N/A	 158,000 	1
the thoroughbred	 166,000 	N/A	 166,000 	1
jet1911	 	177,000 	N/A	 177,000 	1
speculawyer	N/A	 118,000 	 118,000 	1
Dimmuxx		N/A	 121,000 	 121,000 	1
Mallika		N/A	 135,000 	 135,000 	1
Giddeon		N/A	 153,000 	 153,000 	1

Anyone I missed ?

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Anyone I missed ?

Am I to be found anywhere in your compiled list of who placed where?

 

[dirtmonkey37]

I've been contemplating these numbers -- did the 360's figures in NA alone outperform the world wide PS3 numbers for April?

PS3:
NA: 82K
JPN: 50K (I believe)
EU: ?

360:
NA: 174K
JPN: 10K (I believe)
EU: ?

 

[apujanata]

Am I to be found anywhere in your compiled list of who placed where?

Nope. The list I compile is only for the ones who have managed to get into the Top 10 for any month (currently only for March and April). If you wanted to get your rank in April, ask donny2112. He might be willing to do that for you.

BTW, I noticed you didn't do any prediction for March 2007.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Nope. The list I compile is only for the ones who have managed to get into the Top 10 for any month (currently only for March and April). If you wanted to get your rank in April, ask donny2112. He might be willing to do that for you.

BTW, I noticed you didn't do any prediction for March 2007.

Yeah. I've never really been much for the prediction threads, although I've been more interested in them in the last couple of months.

 

[apujanata]

I've been contemplating these numbers -- did the 360's figures in NA alone outperform the world wide PS3 numbers for April?

PS3:
NA: 82K
JPN: 67K
EU: ?

360:
NA: 174K
JPN: 15K
EU: ?

Fixed the Japan part for you. I think PS3 is higher in Europe compared to 360, but no idea by how much in April.

 

[RPS37]

Does someone have the release schedule for NPD numbers for the next few months?
I've seen it posted before. I want to mark down the dates somewhere.

 

[Windu]

DS: 410,000
Wii: 320,000
PS2: 275,000
360: 268,000
PS3: 110,000
GBA: 70,000

 

[DayShallCome]

Didn't Donny also do data for February predictions?

 

[Grampa Simpson]

DS: 410,000
Wii: 320,000
PS2: 275,000
360: 268,000
PS3: 110,000
GBA: 70,000

I can't decide if you're funny or oblivious.

 

[donny2112]

Does someone have the release schedule for NPD numbers for the next few months?

link

Am I to be found anywhere in your compiled list of who placed where?

You're #50 for April. 254K off.

Didn't Donny also do data for February predictions?

And January.

If we're going to do cumulative prediction rankings, it might be better to do it via "% diff" instead of "unit diff." The reason is that for November and December, #10 might be 700K off. That weights the predictions heavily toward those two months, whereas it should be equal amongst all the months.

For a single month, "unit diff" is fine as everyone is ranked against the same magnitude of numbers.

 

[donny2112]

There are 21 users who have predicted every month this year (Jan - Apr). Here are their rankings.

Total units:

1. argon - 1,071,000
2. sonycowboy - 1,095,000
3. donny2112 - 1,099,500
4. Clever Pun - 1,176,000
5. BuzzJive - 1,195,000
6. GhaleonEB - 1,202,000
7. JoshuaJSlone - 1,270,000
8. duderon - 1,306,000
9. Orgen - 1,309,000
10. Ganondorf>Link - 1,326,000
11. Kurosaki Ichigo - 1,447,000
12. rage1973 - 1,467,000
13. starship - 1,517,000
14. hadareud - 1,614,000
15. djtiesto - 1,631,000
16. bycha - 1,732,000
17. Lock - 1,748,000
18. Heidir - 1,774,000
19. Earthstrike - 1,992,000
20. PhoenixDark - 2,034,000
21. beermonkey@tehbias - 2,054,060


By percentages:

1. sonycowboy - 448.50
2. BuzzJive - 466.44
3. argon - 469.54
4. donny2112 - 483.13
5. Clever Pun - 487.95
6. GhaleonEB - 546.73
7. duderon - 556.16
8. Orgen - 558.79
9. JoshuaJSlone - 569.03
10. rage1973 - 591.32
11. Ganondorf>Link - 593.87
12. Kurosaki Ichigo - 608.76
13. starship - 628.74
14. Heidir - 681.15
15. Lock - 706.02
16. hadareud - 731.98
17. bycha - 732.42
18. djtiesto - 744.12
19. Earthstrike - 825.36
20. beermonkey@tehbias - 860.79
21. PhoenixDark - 952.06


Here's another option. This uses a modified version of the NASCAR Point System and is not limited to people who actually predicted all four months.

Spoiler

No, I'm not into NASCAR, but I've heard of their point system before.

#1 gets 183 points.
#2-#10 get 5 points less per position, so #2 gets 178, #3 gets 173, etc.
#11-#25 get 4 points less per position, so #11 gets 134, #12 gets 130, etc.
#26-#50 get 3 points less per position, so #26 gets 75, #27 gets 72, ..., #50 gets 3.
#51-whatever get zero points.

Basically, this removes the deadly penalty of missing a month (now it's as if you finished #51 or worse), and ranks you more on how you did compared to your peers that month than in an absolute sense. I like a points system best of the three, but it doesn't have to be this particular points setup.

Here are the top 21 through April using that method.

1. argon - 474
2. donny2112 - 454
3. BuzzJive - 392
4. Lock - 379
5. sonycowboy - 365
6. Clever Pun - 346
7. GhaleonEB - 329
8. DayShallCome - 321
9. JoshuaJSlone - 321
10. Orgen - 271
11. apujanata - 269
12. JJConrad - 261
13. Ganondorf>Link - 257
14. bycha - 248
15. duderon - 233
16. starship - 216
17. Kurosaki Ichigo - 207
18. rage1973 - 201
19. Bildi - 198
20. Heidir - 197
21. jet1911 - 192


To use apujanata as an example...

He didn't predict anything in January or February, which completely eliminates him from the first two rankings. However with the points setup, his #22 March rank and #5 April rank put him at #11 overall.

To use DayShallCome as an example...

He didn't predict anything in January, which completely eliminates him from the first two rankings. However with the point setup, his #5 February rank and #6 April rank (he finished #104 in March) put him at #8 overall.

Comments? Suggestions?

 

[DayShallCome]

Though I'm obviously biased (see me as example B), I think the points system makes the most sense.

As you said, it makes it so that missing a month doesn't completely ruin a user (and if a n00b wanted to start predicting now, the points system would allow him to jump right into the competition).

 

[Orgen]

There are 21 users who have predicted every month this year (Jan - Apr). Here are their rankings.

Total units:

1. argon - 1,071,000
2. sonycowboy - 1,095,000
3. donny2112 - 1,099,500
4. Clever Pun - 1,176,000
5. BuzzJive - 1,195,000
6. GhaleonEB - 1,202,000
7. JoshuaJSlone - 1,270,000
8. duderon - 1,306,000
9. Orgen - 1,309,000
10. Ganondorf>Link - 1,326,000
11. Kurosaki Ichigo - 1,447,000
12. rage1973 - 1,467,000
13. starship - 1,517,000
14. hadareud - 1,614,000
15. djtiesto - 1,631,000
16. bycha - 1,732,000
17. Lock - 1,748,000
18. Heidir - 1,774,000
19. Earthstrike - 1,992,000
20. PhoenixDark - 2,034,000
21. beermonkey@tehbias - 2,054,060


By percentages:

1. sonycowboy - 448.50
2. BuzzJive - 466.44
3. argon - 469.54
4. donny2112 - 483.13
5. Clever Pun - 487.95
6. GhaleonEB - 546.73
7. duderon - 556.16
8. Orgen - 558.79
9. JoshuaJSlone - 569.03
10. rage1973 - 591.32
11. Ganondorf>Link - 593.87
12. Kurosaki Ichigo - 608.76
13. starship - 628.74
14. Heidir - 681.15
15. Lock - 706.02
16. hadareud - 731.98
17. bycha - 732.42
18. djtiesto - 744.12
19. Earthstrike - 825.36
20. beermonkey@tehbias - 860.79
21. PhoenixDark - 952.06


Here's another option. This uses a modified version of the NASCAR Point System and is not limited to people who actually predicted all four months.

Spoiler

No, I'm not into NASCAR, but I've heard of their point system before.

#1 gets 183 points.
#2-#10 get 5 points less per position, so #2 gets 178, #3 gets 173, etc.
#11-#25 get 4 points less per position, so #11 gets 134, #12 gets 130, etc.
#26-#50 get 3 points less per position, so #26 gets 75, #27 gets 72, ..., #50 gets 3.
#51-whatever get zero points.

Basically, this removes the deadly penalty of missing a month (now it's as if you finished #51 or worse), and ranks you more on how you did compared to your peers that month than in an absolute sense. I like a points system best of the three, but it doesn't have to be this particular points setup.

Here are the top 21 through April using that method.

1. argon - 474
2. donny2112 - 454
3. BuzzJive - 392
4. Lock - 379
5. sonycowboy - 365
6. Clever Pun - 346
7. GhaleonEB - 329
8. DayShallCome - 321
9. JoshuaJSlone - 321
10. Orgen - 271
11. apujanata - 269
12. JJConrad - 261
13. Ganondorf>Link - 257
14. bycha - 248
15. duderon - 233
16. starship - 216
17. Kurosaki Ichigo - 207
18. rage1973 - 201
19. Bildi - 198
20. Heidir - 197
21. jet1911 - 192


To use apujanata as an example...

He didn't predict anything in January or February, which completely eliminates him from the first two rankings. However with the points setup, his #22 March rank and #5 April rank put him at #11 overall.

To use DayShallCome as an example...

He didn't predict anything in January, which completely eliminates him from the first two rankings. However with the point setup, his #5 February rank and #6 April rank (he finished #104 in March) put him at #8 overall.

Comments? Suggestions?

Wow, thanks for the work, Donny2112

Am I a bad person if I prefer the first ranking? ._. xD

At least, use it in the future. The second ranking is cool too

 

[Parl]

Points to consider for an official scoring system:

1) Somebody might be crap to begin with, but quickly get better and be a great predictor, but if their previous poor predictions are still counted, that would make it unfair on them as they would score low, even though they're now great at predicting. You're only as good as your latest prediction (however, one can be lucky too).

2) It's a different ballgame when predicting supply constained consoles, even if the console is in stock in a few places.

3) The percentage by which somebody mispredicted is more relevant than the actually amount, however, listing people in scores by percentages doesn't seem as satisfying to look at. Also, it's probably better if you get screwed over more for mispredicting the bigger systems.

-----

I think the official predictions chart should total the inaccuracies for the previous 3 months, in actual numbers (not percentages), and for those who have missed months, it should be extrapolated to include the extra month, then a 10% penalty should be added to their total for each month off (to combat those who just did one prediction and got lucky).

For instance, if they predicted the previous 2 months, but not the one before it, you add 10% to their total extrapolated total. If they were off 150k last month, 140k 2 months ago, you add 145k, then add another 10%. That makes 479k.

And if they only predicted one month, you times it by 3 then add 10% twice. So if they predicted 130k, their total becomes 472k.

Also, listing winners for individual months would be very appropriate too.

 

[donny2112]

1) Somebody might be crap to begin with, but quickly get better and be a great predictor, but if their previous poor predictions are still counted, that would make it unfair on them as they would score low, even though they're now great at predicting.

...

I think the official predictions chart should total the inaccuracies for the previous 3 months, in actual numbers (not percentages)

That's certainly doable.

2) It's a different ballgame when predicting supply constained consoles, even if the console is in stock in a few places.

No excuses. If they correctly predict the supply-constrained months and correctly predict the non-supply-constrained months, just how awesome a predictor would they be? :lol

and for those who have missed months, it should be extrapolated to include the extra month, then a 10% penalty should be added to their total for each month off (to combat those who just did one prediction and got lucky).

I don't believe it is reasonable to extrapolate how much they would be off for a particular month. In keeping with how I've handled missing data in the past, it would be more appropriate to assume that since they didn't predict for that month, they must've thought no systems would have sold that month. For March, that would've put them 1.7 million (700%) in the hole. That's why I just excluded them altogether from the first two rankings.

Also, listing winners for individual months would be very appropriate too.

Do you mean something new or just don't stop doing the rankings that are already done?



Just so it's clear, I'm not talking about stopping the rankings that are currently done. apujanata had brought forward the idea of keeping an overall ranking in addition to the current method. The current discussion is just about what way makes the most sense to do such an overall ranking.

 

[tanod]

Just so it's clear, I'm not talking about stopping the rankings that are currently done. apujanata had brought forward the idea of keeping an overall ranking in addition to the current method. The current discussion is just about what way makes the most sense to do such an overall ranking.

I like that idea. Can you set this up in a google spreadsheet so people can look at the month to month?

 

[Clever Pun]

wow, i've done consistently well so far this year! I didn't even realize I had predicted each month

 

[Fuzzy]

Does someone have the release schedule for NPD numbers for the next few months?
I've seen it posted before. I want to mark down the dates somewhere.

link

And to actually answer the question, the second Thursday after the close of the month seen in that post.

 

[Bildi]

Comments? Suggestions?

I like the points system best. Speaking as an unbiased person (and I can because I rank worse in the points system than in apujanata's system) I like the points system because people are joining in all the time and they will therefore get some enjoyment out of the rankings just like people who have been doing it longer.

Starting the count again every January seems good. Thanks for all the number crunching donny & apujanata.

 

[apujanata]

I like the points system best. Speaking as an unbiased person (and I can because I rank worse in the points system than in apujanata's system) I like the points system because people are joining in all the time and they will therefore get some enjoyment out of the rankings just like people who have been doing it longer.

Starting the count again every January seems good. Thanks for all the number crunching donny & apujanata.

I agree with the points system for the same reason.
My suggestion :
Points system for the whole year (yearly leader board)
Points system for the last three months or the last six months (which will change every month)

The purpose of yearly leaderboard is to encourage sales enthusiast to keep on predicting each and every month, and the point system can encourage one to keep on doing it, even though they might have done badly in the previous 3 months. The point system helps minimize the effect of the badly done past prediction, and will make for a more heated competition (compared to total difference and percentage difference).

Didn't Donny also do data for February predictions?

I did not know this, since I only started to do prediction in March 07 (my prediction in 05 and 06 sucks like a vacuum cleaner)

 

[GhaleonEB]

Wow. I did WAY better at the cumulative esitimates for this year than I thought.

 

[apujanata]

donny2112, you haven't post the whole list for this month.

And you forgot to mention this :
when there are more than one person who predict the exact same amount, the rank that will be used will be the highest available.

So, from this :
18. arne - 238K
19. Restricted_Area - 238K
20. Densha Otoko - 238K
21. Nuclear Muffin - 238K
22. apujanata - 238K
23. Freki - 239K

to this :
18. arne - 238K
18. Restricted_Area - 238K
18. Densha Otoko - 238K
18. Nuclear Muffin - 238K
18. apujanata - 238K
23. Freki - 239K

 

[Bildi]

My suggestion :
Points system for the whole year (yearly leader board)
Points system for the last three months or the last six months (which will change every month)

I think this is a great idea. Points system with an annual ranking plus a three month ranking gets my vote. The points system does kind of penalise you in a small way for missing months, but the three month rankings means you can still have some fun.

 

[DSWii60]

I think this is a great idea. Points system with an annual ranking plus a three month ranking gets my vote. The points system does kind of penalise you in a small way for missing months, but the three month rankings means you can still have some fun.

I agree, I only started predicting in March so the points system seems good to me, but annual ranking and three month ranking should be interesting aswell.

Great work guys.

 

[donny2112]

And to actually answer the question, the second Thursday after the close of the month seen in that post.

Oh, yeah that. Um, thanks Fuzzy! :lol

My suggestion :
Points system for the whole year (yearly leader board)
Points system for the last three months or the last six months (which will change every month)

Sounds good to me.

One addition to the points system I was considering is a bonus for finishing first. Maybe an additional 15 or 30 points if you finish first that month?

That would mean that there would be a 1) monthly ranking based on units, 2) 3 month ranking based on points, and 3) yearly ranking based on points posted each month.

Sound about right?

donny2112, you haven't post the whole list for this month.

I usually only post the top 5/10 for the month. Last month was the only time I've posted the whole chart. I don't know that I'll always post the full results, but here's this month's, anyways.

And you forgot to mention this :
when there are more than one person who predict the exact same amount, the rank that will be used will be the highest available.

I do that manually when I post each month's unit results (i.e. the top 5/10). The method I'm using to figure out the points system automatically takes that into account when assigning points, though.

 

[DayShallCome]

Sounds perfect. Thanks for all your hard work Donny, it makes NPD even more fun.

 

[donny2112]

Thanks for all your hard work Donny, it makes NPD even more fun.

Here are the point totals for the year and the last three months. I went ahead and gave the top finisher each month a 15-point bonus.

NPD Prediction Points Leaders (2007)

1. argon - 474
2. donny2112 - 454
3. BuzzJive - 407
4. sonycowboy - 380
5. Lock - 379
6. Clever Pun - 346
7. GhaleonEB - 329
8. DayShallCome - 321
8. JoshuaJSlone - 321
10. Orgen - 271


NPD Prediction Points Leaders (3 months)

1. DayShallCome - 321
2. argon - 306
2. donny2112 - 306
4. apujanata - 269
4. LOCK - 269
6. BuzzJive - 249
7. Clever Pun - 216
8. Bildi - 198
8. Xisiqomelir - 198
8. pilonv1 - 198

 

[LOCK]

I'm doing pretty good then.

Great work Donny!

 

[starship]

I don't get the points system. I am at #13 by units and LOCK is four spots behind me but in the points system ranking he is way higher than me (I'm at #16 and he is at #4). What causes such a big difference in the rankings?

 

[Deku]

Here are the point totals for the year and the last three months. I went ahead and gave the top finisher each month a 15-point bonus.

NPD Prediction Points Leaders (2007)

1. argon - 474
2. donny2112 - 454
3. BuzzJive - 407
4. sonycowboy - 380
5. Lock - 379
6. Clever Pun - 346
7. GhaleonEB - 329
8. DayShallCome - 321
8. JoshuaJSlone - 321
10. Orgen - 271


NPD Prediction Points Leaders (3 months)

1. DayShallCome - 321
2. argon - 306
2. donny2112 - 306
4. apujanata - 269
4. LOCK - 269
6. BuzzJive - 249
7. Clever Pun - 216
8. Bildi - 198
8. Xisiqomelir - 198
8. pilonv1 - 198

Is Pachter ranked?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I don't get the points system. I am at #13 by units and LOCK is four spots behind me but in the points system ranking he is way higher than me (I'm at #16 and he is at #4). What causes such a big difference in the rankings?

With a points system, the specific amount you were off by each month ceases to matter; just how well you did compared to others. If we were to do something similar with home console sales (first gets 3, second gets 2, third gets 1, rest get 0) then from November-April things would look like...

PS2 - 15
Wii - 13
X360 - 8

While by units the order would be PS2, X360, Wii.

 

[starship]

With a points system, the specific amount you were off by each month ceases to matter; just how well you did compared to others. If we were to do something similar with home console sales (first gets 3, second gets 2, third gets 1, rest get 0) then from November-April things would look like...

PS2 - 15
Wii - 13
X360 - 8

While by units the order would be PS2, X360, Wii.

Yeah I know, but the difference in rankings is so big that I can't see this as the only reason.

Two suggestions:

1. Constant difference between spots at any level.
2. The last person gets the lowest point, for example zero, and the #1 gets the highest point, for example 100. I think if for example 130 users participate in the prediction, its not fair that form #130 to #50 all get zero points.