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Pachter Predicts: Xbox One outsold PS4 in September (dance, you puppets)

J

Jomjom

Banned
Nouzka said:
The "outrage" seems to be more about how his predictions seems to be completely wrong, not that one console is selling more than another.
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Don't really get why people are getting mad. It's a prediction not fact, he's entitled to be wrong. It's not like he's staking his whole reputation on this one prediction and telling people they need to go buy _____ stock right now based wholly on that prediction. Maybe people are just getting mad because they feel that they are a better fit for his job just because they think they can make that one prediction more accurately?

Funny thing is I bet the majority of people mad at him aren't even his subscribers or clients. He has no duty to those people to be accurate whatsoever. I'd imagine his clients couldn't care less if he had predicted that PS4 sold 1 unit in September and Xbox One sold 55 million as long as he makes them money for their investments.
 
Crimson_Fate

Crimson_Fate

Member
I believe I've seen this method work before...

hqdefault.jpg
 
T

TheOMan

Tagged as I see fit
Now I know Pachter is trolling GAF with these predictions. I wasn't sure before, but this seals it.

I picture him sitting down in his den, flipping on the big screen with a nice glass of red wine in one hand while scrolling through Gaming side GAF. In a big nice comfy chair. Reading through what havoc his hilarious prediction has caused on GAF this time. Softly chuckling to himself after every page and/or ban, he sips his wine amused and considers how to outdo himself next time.

After this, he goes into his Scrooge McDuck vault and swims/counts his money which, of course, is in gold bricks and coins. Paper bills are for the gaming peasants that don't get paid to be a Videogames Analyst.
 
N

Nouzka

Member
Jomjom said:
Don't really get why people are getting mad. It's a prediction not fact, he's entitled to be wrong. It's not like he's staking his whole reputation on this one prediction and telling people they need to go buy _____ stock right now based wholly on that prediction. Maybe people are just getting mad because they feel that they are a better fit for his job just because they think they can make that one prediction more accurately?
Click to expand...

Well I don't think anybody is getting mad, just saying his predictions seems to be way off this time. And he certainly can predict what ever he wants, though that doesn't mean everybody who disagrees with him is Playstation fanboy, like Pachter and some posters here thinks.
 
B

BumRush

Member
TheOMan said:
Now I know Pachter is trolling GAF with these predictions. I wasn't sure before, but this seals it.

I picture him sitting down in his den, flipping on the big screen with a nice glass of red wine in one hand while scrolling through Gaming side GAF. In a big nice comfy chair. Reading through what havoc his hilarious prediction has caused on GAF this time. Softly chuckling to himself after every page and/or ban, he sips his wine amused and considers how to outdo himself next time.

After this, he goes into his Scrooge McDuck vault and swims/counts his money which, of course, is in gold bricks and coins. Paper bills are for the gaming peasants that don't get paid to be a Videogames Analyst.
Click to expand...

I always pictured it'd be scotch, but yeah there is no way he isn't reading this thread. Hi Pachter!!
 
C

cakely

Member
Jomjom said:
Don't really get why people are getting mad. It's a prediction not fact, he's entitled to be wrong. It's not like he's staking his whole reputation on this one prediction and telling people they need to go buy _____ stock right now based wholly on that prediction. Maybe people are just getting mad because they feel that they are a better fit for his job just because they think they can make that one prediction more accurately?

Funny thing is I bet the majority of people mad at him aren't even his subscribers or clients. He has no duty to those people to be accurate whatsoever. I'd imagine his clients couldn't care less if he had predicted that PS4 sold 1 unit in September and Xbox One sold 55 million as long as he makes them money for their investments.
Click to expand...

Agreed. He made a prediction, and he even gave his reason. It's probably inaccurate but we'll all know on Thursday.
 
J

Jomjom

Banned
Biker19 said:
I wouldn't pay him any mind. Let posters like Heavy be foolish enough to believe anything Patcher says.
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The opposite is the problem. Aqua is telling them what Pachter's methodology is (as explained by the man himself) and Heavy is saying "You don't know that, he could have some super secret methodology he's just hiding from you!" Why? Who knows!
 
S

sam777

Member
Basically this is just Pachters prediction, which is a ridiculous prediction to me but who cares if he is wrong he's wrong if he's right he's right. Surprised at the number of posts in this thread.
 
D

Dragonborn

Member
pixlexic said:
So what happens if he is right?
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Meltdowns, probably for a day as people try to understand how on earth MS pulled it off. IN the grand scheme of things, it would mean nothing really. MS would still be getting blown away in overall WW sales and lagging heavily behind.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Akainu said:
I think I've asked this before but has he ever been right about anything?
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Sure. He's an accomplished Equity Research Analyst who has made an incredible amount of well-reasoned, intelligent predictions for decades.

Does anyone think he would still have a job if he wasn't good at what he actually does?
 
D

Dragonborn

Member
Aquamarine said:
Sure. He's a well-accomplished Equity Research Analyst who has made an incredible amount of well-reasoned, intelligent predictions for decades.

Does anyone think he would still have a job if he wasn't good at what he actually does?
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The thing is, the predictions he gets wrong are widely known, but the many he gets right probably go unnoticed (at least, on GAF). That creates the illusion of him being constantly wrong.

Though it does seem he does pretty bad when predicting console sales.
 
A

alexandros

Banned
Chobel said:
His predictions are often (always?) wrong, so his supposed "special methodology" isn't going to impress anyone nor it's going to show him "more capable" than any other NPD guesser.
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I believe his public predictions are not really intended as serious investment advice. I think he's just having a bit of fun at our expense. If he was really terrible at his job he wouldn't be as well off as he is.
 
A

alexandros

Banned
Tommy DJ said:
Someone mentioned that you and Hindle are alike. I can see why.

You're literally saying this: "I'm going to throw investment money at this company because Patcher and his secret sauce methodology that makes him so credible said so"
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I'm literally saying that his results speak louder than any methodology. Not his public predictions, the stuff he actually gets payed money for by investors.
 
J

Jomjom

Banned
Dragonborn said:
The thing is, the predictions he gets wrong are widely known, but the many he gets right probably go unnoticed (at least, on GAF). That creates the illusion of him being constantly wrong.

Though it does seem he does pretty bad when predicting console sales.
Click to expand...

I'm sure if for some reason people were paying him big money to predict these console sales, he would be much more accurate because he would do a heck of a lot more research and retail chain prodding. He doesn't get paid for this, so he doesn't give a crap.

It's the same as with most people in their jobs I would think. Stuff that we'll get noticed for and could lead to a raise or a good performance review, we're going to put 110% effort into, but stuff that's just menial or out of some obligation, we're going to do with as little time investment as possible because we're all busy ass people.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Jomjom said:
I'm sure if for some reason people were paying him big money to predict these console sales, he would be much more accurate because he would do a heck of a lot more research and retail chain prodding. He doesn't get paid for this, so he doesn't give a crap.

It's the same as with most people in their jobs I would think. Stuff that we'll get noticed for and could lead to a raise or a good performance review, we're going to put 110% effort into, but stuff that's just menial or out of some obligation, we're going to do with as little time investment as possible because we're all busy ass people.
Click to expand...

Pachter's output is absolutely incredible.

He writes hundreds upon hundreds upon HUNDREDS of pages of analysis every month for those 21 companies he covers.

He does SO much work, it's actually quite impressive. The NPD Predictions stuff takes him two hours (maybe even less) to come up with.
 
S

siah

Banned
Dragonborn said:
Meltdowns, probably for a day as people try to understand how on earth MS pulled it off. IN the grand scheme of things, it would mean nothing really. MS would still be getting blown away in overall WW sales and lagging heavily behind.
Click to expand...

How wouldn't it mean anything? If it is a sign of momentum for MS it definitely would mean something.
 
C

Canis lupus

Member
Aquamarine said:
Sure. He's an accomplished Equity Research Analyst who has made an incredible amount of well-reasoned, intelligent predictions for decades.

Does anyone think he would still have a job if he wasn't good at what he actually does?
Click to expand...

He can make well reasoned, intelligent predictions, doesn't mean he's right most of the time.
 
J

Jomjom

Banned
Aquamarine said:
Pachter's output is absolutely incredible.

He writes hundreds upon hundreds upon HUNDREDS of pages of analysis every month for those 21 companies he covers.

He does SO much work, it's actually quite impressive. The NPD Predictions stuff takes him two hours (maybe even less) to come up with.
Click to expand...

Yeah you don't make his kind of salary without doing work (quality and quantity) that's well beyond what the majority of human beings would be capable of. I have to draft quite a few documents but I can't imagine doing what's probably equivalent to nonstop dissertations. I'd burn out half a day into it haha.
 
womfalcs3

womfalcs3

Banned
Aquamarine said:
Sure. He's an accomplished Equity Research Analyst who has made an incredible amount of well-reasoned, intelligent predictions for decades.

Does anyone think he would still have a job if he wasn't good at what he actually does?
Click to expand...

Typically in economics research, predictions are almost always wrong. And even if the prediction is right, it's likely due to different reasons than what led to the prediction in the first place. Analysts provide insight on market trends and conditions and that's what he's probably good at.

EDIT: Plus I can't find any journal publications or working papers for him on Elsevier or SSRN. Is he even published as a researcher?
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
womfalcs3 said:
Typically in economics research, predictions are almost always wrong. And even if the prediction is right, it's likely due to different reasons than what led to the prediction in the first place. Analysts provide insight on market trends and conditions and that's what he's probably good at.
Click to expand...

I'm using "predictions are right" in the "predictions are well-reasoned and intelligent" sense, as opposed to the "predictions are ludicrous" one.
 
S

Servbot24

Banned
TheOMan said:
Now I know Pachter is trolling GAF with these predictions. I wasn't sure before, but this seals it.

I picture him sitting down in his den, flipping on the big screen with a nice glass of red wine in one hand while scrolling through Gaming side GAF. In a big nice comfy chair. Reading through what havoc his hilarious prediction has caused on GAF this time. Softly chuckling to himself after every page and/or ban, he sips his wine amused and considers how to outdo himself next time.

After this, he goes into his Scrooge McDuck vault and swims/counts his money which, of course, is in gold bricks and coins. Paper bills are for the gaming peasants that don't get paid to be a Videogames Analyst.
Click to expand...

Actually it's more like this.

fpnJQY3.jpg
 
H

hydrophilic attack

Member
Aquamarine said:
Pachter's output is absolutely incredible.

He writes hundreds upon hundreds upon HUNDREDS of pages of analysis every month for those 21 companies he covers.

He does SO much work, it's actually quite impressive. The NPD Predictions stuff takes him two hours (maybe even less) to come up with.
Click to expand...

Does he do it all himself, or have people working under him?
 
R

RoKKeR

Member
TheOMan said:
Now I know Pachter is trolling GAF with these predictions. I wasn't sure before, but this seals it.

I picture him sitting down in his den, flipping on the big screen with a nice glass of red wine in one hand while scrolling through Gaming side GAF. In a big nice comfy chair. Reading through what havoc his hilarious prediction has caused on GAF this time. Softly chuckling to himself after every page and/or ban, he sips his wine amused and considers how to outdo himself next time.

After this, he goes into his Scrooge McDuck vault and swims/counts his money which, of course, is in gold bricks and coins. Paper bills are for the gaming peasants that don't get paid to be a Videogames Analyst.
Click to expand...

It doesn't seem all that implausible!
 
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