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These projections are a reflection of Scott Feinberg's (THR's awards expert) personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).]

Best Picture

FRONTRUNNERS

La La Land (Lionsgate)
Fences (Paramount)
Hidden Figures (Fox)
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Sony)
Moonlight (A24)
Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
Jackie (Fox Searchlight) NEW
Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
The Birth of a Nation (Fox Searchlight) [pictured above]
Silence (Paramount)

MAJOR THREATS

Loving (Focus Features)
Hell or High Water (CBS Films)
Live By Night (Warner Bros.)
Sully (Warner Bros.)
Snowden (Open Road)
Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
20th Century Women (A24)
Captain Fantastic (Bleecker Street)

POSSIBILITIES

Florence Foster Jenkins (Paramount)
Toni Erdmann (Sony Classics)
Collateral Beauty (Warner Bros./New Line)
Allied (Paramount)
American Pastoral (Lionsgate)
Eye in the Sky (Bleecker Street)
Rules Don't Apply (Fox)
Bleed for This (Open Road)
The Jungle Book (Disney)

LONG SHOTS

Patriots Day (Lionsgate)
Passengers (Sony)
Zootopia (Disney)
Arrival (Paramount)
Nocturnal Animals (Focus Features)
The Girl on the Train (Universal)
I, Daniel Blake (IFC Films)
The Lobster (A24)
A Monster Calls (Focus Features)
The Founder (The Weinstein Co.)

Best Director

FRONTRUNNERS

Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Ang Lee (Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Martin Scorsese (Silence)

MAJOR THREATS

Nate Parker (The Birth of a Nation)
Pablo Larrain (Jackie) NEW
Garth Davis (Lion) NEW
Jeff Nichols (Loving) [pictured above]
Oliver Stone (Snowden)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Ben Affleck (Live By Night)
Clint Eastwood (Sully)

POSSIBILITIES

Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Ted Melfi (Hidden Figures)
Mike Mills (20th Century Women)
Robert Zemeckis (Allied)
Matt Ross (Captain Fantastic)
Ewan McGregor (American Pastoral)
David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)
Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)

LONG SHOTS

Stephen Frears (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Peter Berg (Patriots Day)
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)
David Frankel (Collateral Beauty)
Morten Tyldum (Passengers)
Juan Antonio Bayona (A Monster Calls)
Jon Favreau (The Jungle Book)

Best Actor

FRONTRUNNERS

Denzel Washington (Fences)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land) [pictured above]
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (Snowden)
Tom Hanks (Sully)
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

MAJOR THREATS

Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Joel Edgerton (Loving)
Nate Parker (The Birth of a Nation)
Ben Affleck (Live By Night)
Miles Teller (Bleed for This)
Joe Alwyn (Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Andrew Garfield (Silence)

POSSIBILITIES

Will Smith (Collateral Beauty)
Brad Pitt (Allied)
Mark Wahlberg (Patriots Day)
Matthew McConaughey (Gold)
Ewan McGregor (American Pastoral)
Michael Keaton (The Founder)
Alden Ehrenreich (Rules Don't Apply)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals)

LONG SHOTS

Chris Pratt (Passengers)
Mark Rylance (The BFG)
Michael Fassbender (The Light Between Oceans)
Adam Driver (Paterson)
Chris Pine (Hell or High Water)
Ethan Hawke (Born to Be Blue)
Tom Hiddleston (I Saw the Light)
Don Cheadle (Miles Ahead)
Jesse Plemons (Other People)

Best Actress

FRONTRUNNERS

Emma Stone (La La Land)
Natalie Portman (Jackie) NEW
Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
Viola Davis (Fences)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) [pictured above]

MAJOR THREATS

Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)
Ruth Negga (Loving)
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Rachel Weisz (Denial)
Marion Cotillard (Allied)
Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane)

POSSIBILITIES

Amy Adams (Arrival)
Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train)
Isabelle Huppert (Things to Come)
Alicia Vikander (The Light Between Oceans)
Kate Beckinsale (Love & Friendship)
Amy Adams (Nocturnal Animals)

LONG SHOTS

Jennifer Lawrence (Passengers)
Gemma Arterton (Their Finest) NEW
Rebecca Hall (Christine)
Sally Field (Hello, My Name Is Doris)
Susan Sarandon (The Meddler)
Tilda Swinton (A Bigger Splash)

STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTION

Sally Hawkins (Maudie)

Best Supporting Actor

FRONTRUNNERS

Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Liam Neeson (Silence)
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) [pictured above]
Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)
Dev Patel (Lion)

MAJOR THREATS

Alan Rickman (Eye in the Sky)
Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)
Edward Norton (Collateral Beauty)
Adam Driver (Silence)

POSSIBILITIES

Eddie Murphy (Mr. Church)
Timothy Spall (Denial)
Armie Hammer (The Birth of a Nation)
Billy Crudup (20th Century Women)
Andre Holland (Moonlight)
Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Garrett Hedlund (Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk)

LONG SHOTS

Aaron Eckhart (Bleed for This)
Billy Crudup (Jackie) NEW
Mykelti Williamson (Fences)
Ben Foster (Hell or High Water)
John Legend (La La Land)
John Goodman (10 Cloverfield Lane)
Tracy Letts (Indignation)
Tracy Letts (Christine) NEW

STILL SEEKING U.S. DISTRIBUTION

Ethan Hawke (Maudie)

Best Supporting Actress

FRONTRUNNERS

Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Margo Martindale (The Hollars) [pictured above]

MAJOR THREATS

Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures) NEW
Kate Winslet (Collateral Beauty)
Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky)
Molly Shannon (Other People) NEW
Kristen Stewart (Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk)
Aja Naomi King (The Birth of a Nation)

POSSIBILITIES

Jennifer Connelly (American Pastoral)
Dakota Fanning (American Pastoral)
Shailene Woodley (Snowden)
Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women)
Lily Collins (Rules Don't Apply)

LONG SHOTS

Teresa Palmer (Hacksaw Ridge)
Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Miss Sloane)
Sarah Gadon (Indignation)
Elle Fanning (20th Century Women)

The rest of the categories and their projections are after the link:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/li...29495/item/best-director-first-look-at-911667

This gives a pretty good idea on what's all in the running, and bear in mind a lot could change in the next few months after the reception these films get publically, and the campaigns that occur afterwards.

 

[Strax]

The Lobster was at Cannes last year so I doubt it will get any noms.
Also if Hell or High Water has a chance of getting a best picture nom this has been a terrible year for films (it has been so far from what I've seen)

 

[Lionel Richie]

I'd be very surprised if Billy Lynn's doesn't take it.

 

[lightskintwin]

The Lobster was at Cannes last year so I doubt it will get any noms.
Also if Hell or High Water has a chance of getting a best picture nom this has been a terrible year for films (it has been so far from what I've seen)

How was Hell or High Water? I see it was universally critically acclaimed in reviews.

 

[demosthenes]

I have a lot of movie watching catching up to do.

How was Hell or High Water? I see it was universally critically acclaimed in reviews.

Really good. I thought it was a solid movie from start to end. You see where the story is going but they still get some surprises in it.

 

[broncobuster]

MAJOR THREATS

Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Andrew Garfield (Silence)

Andrew Garfield is a threat to himself.

It'd be great if Casey Affleck or Viggo get Oscars.

 

[jack_package_200]

I still think the allegations surrounding Nate Parker and the way he chose to handle them will likely kill Birth of a Nation's Oscar chances.

 

[Strax]

How was Hell or High Water? I see it was universally critically acclaimed in reviews.

Its a good fun movie with 2-3 good low-key scenes but nothing more then that. Maybe it could get a nom for best score but other then that, nah.

 

[BronsonLee]

lol, Nate Parker isn't winning shit

Beyond that it's a race to see which studio has the most cash to push

 

[BioHazard]

Are we sure Silence is still coming out this year?

 

[Amir0x]

Moonlight and Barry Jenkins deserves all the awards. All of them. Fuck give it best special effects too just because.

 

[Strax]

lol, Nate Parker isn't winning shit

Beyond that it's a race to see which studio has the most cash to push

So Jungle Book to sweep?

 

[Schryver]

Wow how had I not heard about La La Land. So hyped for that now

 

[BronsonLee]

So Jungle Book to sweep?

Disney doesn't give a shit about Oscars really, especially since they kinda know they have Best Animated on lock forever

 

[overcast]

I think Silence is going to be one of the top contenders. It just hasn't picked up any buzz because it hasn't premiered.

I feel like La La Land is getting so much buzz from the festival circuit that it'll hurt it's chances.

 

[WaffleTaco]

Has Passengers even received a trailer yet or like anything? Jennifer Lawrence has been an Oscar nominated film ever year for how many years now?? Seriously it's just her and Pratt in the film. Way too earlier to even be making a list.

 

[lightskintwin]

I still think the allegations surrounding Nate Parker and the way he chose to handle them will likely kill Birth of a Nation's Oscar chances.

Maybe, but we know how isolated and even tone deaf the industry can be. Remember the film got a standing ovation at this past Toronto Film Festival.

I think it's box office success and it's reception in the public will have a much bigger impact on Nate Parker's chances than other films.

 

[overcast]

Also, Billy Lynn's Halftime Walk has huge potential to be an oscar nom hit. Ang Lee, political commentary, interesting tech behind it.

 

[UberTag]

Its a good fun movie with 2-3 good low-key scenes but nothing more then that. Maybe it could get a nom for best score but other then that, nah.

I think Russell has an outside shot at a Supporting Actor nom. Original Screenplay is too bloated with Best Picture front-runners to make the cut for Taylor Sheridan. Otherwise, you're absolutely right.

Having watched Birth of a Nation, I'm not sure it's worthy for much beyond the technical categories (production design, costume design, etc.) so I don't feel so bad about Nate Parker's rape allegation baggage dragging the film's prospects down everywhere else.

 

[RastaMentality]

Thrilled to see Moonlight. The films this year don't seem as "Oscar-bait"y as years past which is nice. Moonlight doesn't seem like something that would've been in the middle of the Oscar conversation but here we are.

 

[Meowster]

Natalie Portman has been getting career best raves for Jackie.

I kind of thought it was going to be a Grace of Monaco sort of thing but critics are describing it like "Under the Skin meets Marie Antoinette." Hyped.

 

[DizzyCaffeine]

How is Silence coming out in 2 months and there's not even a trailer?

 

[lightskintwin]

Natalie Portman has been getting career best raves for Jackie.

I kind of thought it was going to be a Grace of Monaco sort of thing but critics are describing it like "Under the Skin meets Marie Antoinette." Hyped.

Yeah, it jumped up in all the Oscar race's frontrunners list after it's screening last week at the Venice Film Festival and this past Sunday at the Toronto International Film Festival.

 

[Dan]

Did the author of this not see the reception to Snowden?

I like how Live By Night gets a bunch of mentions despite not being confirmed for getting an early release this year.

I kind of thought it was going to be a Grace of Monaco sort of thing but critics are describing it like "Under the Skin meets Marie Antoinette." Hyped.

Well that's an interesting combo...

 

[Blader]

How is Silence coming out in 2 months and there's not even a trailer?

Paramount has a few other Oscar possibilities already scheduled for the rest of the year, so I wouldn't be surprised if they end up delaying it to 2017.

 

[Ridley327]

Natalie Portman has been getting career best raves for Jackie.

I kind of thought it was going to be a Grace of Monaco sort of thing but critics are describing it like "Under the Skin meets Marie Antoinette." Hyped.

It probably helps that the film is also scored by Mica Levi, who did the score for Under the Skin.

 

[lightskintwin]

Paramount has a few other Oscar possibilities already scheduled for the rest of the year, so I wouldn't be surprised if they end up delaying it to 2017.

Denzel Washington's Fences is probably one of their bigger ones they're banking on.

 

[Haloid1177]

They missed the mark on Snowden I think lol

 

[Viewt]

Just recently saw the trailer for Moonlight and it shot straight up on my list of movies to see before the end of the year. The tone, the intensity, the look - the perspective just felt totally new to me. Can't wait to catch it. Mahershala Ali is breaking out all over the place, and I couldn't be happier for the guy. He's such a great talent.

 

[Strax]

I think Russell has an outside shot at a Supporting Actor nom.

Russell?

 

[DizzyCaffeine]

Paramount has a few other Oscar possibilities already scheduled for the rest of the year, so I wouldn't be surprised if they end up delaying it to 2017.

Bummer. Easily my most anticipated movie.

And if it's delayed to 2017, doesn't that most likely mean fall 2017?

 

[Discotheque]

Andrew Garfield is a threat to himself.

It'd be great if Casey Affleck or Viggo get Oscars.

Yeah I've been wanting those two to win something for years. Especially aragorn da gawd

Andrew Garfield is pretty dope as well. He's just getting started.

Would be really happy if Jeff Nichols wins best director. He's the strongest director of all the newer ones that have been popping up in the last few years

 

[UberTag]

Natalie Portman has been getting career best raves for Jackie.

I kind of thought it was going to be a Grace of Monaco sort of thing but critics are describing it like "Under the Skin meets Marie Antoinette." Hyped.

It's a special performance and I honestly can't think of a film I've seen her in where she's been better. It's especially impressive given how few takes were used for many of her scenes.

Problem is that Best Actress is arguably the most competitive category this year. I believe she's a lock for a nom - she's been trending upwards post-Venice and TIFF screenings at a similar pace to Brie Larson last year - but winning is another story.

I feel Emma Stone is the favourite right now based on what's been screened with Davis potentially moving out in front if Fences becomes a juggernaut. I'll be checking out Ruth Negga's performance from Loving in a couple of hours.

 

[Ridley327]

Bummer. Easily my most anticipated movie.

And if it's delayed to 2017, doesn't that most likely mean fall 2017?

It really depends on how Paramount thinks it fares as an awards potential. They famously pushed Shutter Island back a couple of months as they couldn't afford an Oscar campaign for it, but that never struck me as the kind of film that was going to get much play with awards, being a pretty straight genre flick and all that.

 

[UberTag]

Russell?

Duh... I meant Jeff Bridges. Always get him and Kurt confused in my mind for some reason.

 

[Begbie]

It sounds like Silence might not be released this year.. it won't be finished until October.

 

[Discotheque]

It sounds like Silence might not be released this year.. it won't be finished until October.

Been waiting for this movie for years at this point. A few months is fine. Hopefully they do some Oscar run in December tho. Would like to see this

 

[Sanjuro]

CTRL F + Ryan Gosling + The Nice Guys.

Zero results.

 

[Dan]

It really depends on how Paramount thinks it fares as an awards potential. They famously pushed Shutter Island back a couple of months as they couldn't afford an Oscar campaign for it, but that never struck me as the kind of film that was going to get much play with awards, being a pretty straight genre flick and all that.

On the other hand, never underestimate the Academy's need to suck up to Scorsese. Just look at The Departed.

 

[Jigorath]

Pretty early to be making lists like this. A lot of these films haven't even premiered yet.

 

[lightskintwin]

CTRL F + Ryan Gosling + The Nice Guys.

Zero results.

LOL Nice Guys has absolute no Oscar buzz and it didn't do well at the box office, but Ryan Gosling is pretty much a lock for Best Actor given the buzz of La La Land.

 

[George Oscar Bluth II]

The technical categories are all I really care about about these days.

 

[Lionel Richie]

On the other hand, never underestimate the Academy's need to suck up to Scorsese. Just look at The Departed.

Out of curiosity, who should have won that year?

 

[Viewt]

On the other hand, never underestimate the Academy's need to suck up to Scorsese. Just look at The Departed.

The Departed was a "let's reward Marty for his body of work" Oscar. They do that shit all the time. If anything, they did it because many felt he'd been snubbed too many times.

Out of curiosity, who should have won that year?

It wasn't a particularly strong year in that category, but I think Letters from Iwo Jima or Babel could've been legit picks.

 

[Sanjuro]

LOL Nice Guys has absolute no Oscar buzz and it didn't do well at the box office, but Ryan Gosling is pretty much a lock for Best Actor given the buzz of La La Land.

Still need to see the latter film, but his performance in the former will be very hard to top this year for any actor.

That was the one taekwasy I had while viewing the film. Other than that, didn't think it would be up for anything.

 

[lightskintwin]

Still need to see the latter film, but his performance in the former will be very hard to top this year for any actor.

That was the one taekwasy I had while viewing the film. Other than that, didn't think it would be up for anything.

I can't argue against you, because I still haven't seen The Nice Guys. LOL

Will add to my "to watch" list.

 

[Blader]

I could maybe see Paramount pushing Silence to April for timing around Easter.

Out of curiosity, who should have won that year?

Casino Royale

 

[Lionel Richie]

It wasn't a particularly strong year in that category, but I think Letters from Iwo Jima or Babel could've been legit picks.

I'll give you Letters from Iwo Jima, but Babel is such a piece of shit horrible movie that I wouldn't ever watch the Oscars again had it won.

Casino Royale

HELL YEAH, this is something I can agree. Wouldn't happen ever though.

 

[Sean C]

It wasn't a particularly strong year in that category, but I think Letters from Iwo Jima or Babel could've been legit picks.

I love the former film (the latter I disliked), but that there are other worthy winners doesn't mean it wasn't a deserved win for The Departed. It was one of the most acclaimed films of the year, and, ten years later, is undoubtedly the nominee people still talk about the most.

It certainly was also a way for the Academy to finally reward Scorsese, but even if he already had an Oscar at that point he would probably still have won, I'd say.

 

[BronsonLee]

Would be really happy if Jeff Nichols wins best director. He's the strongest director of all the newer ones that have been popping up in the last few years

Midnight Special is still my favorite movie of 2016