Support NeoGAF

[kruis]

What I think it means is making a cheap $200 powerful console that gets a boost with the cloud

The cloud is going to be an even bigger money sink for MS than Xbox consoles ever were. Game streaming is radically different from movie streaming, because with high end PCs/consoles there's a 1:1 relationship between the number of servers and the number of concurrent players. Instead of selling consoles at a profit (or minor loss), MS would have to pre-finance millions of cloud gaming servers themselves, build and maintain huge server farms and then make that money back through subscriptions and game sales. The financial risks are much larger in this scenario, since there's nothing stopping their Xcloud subscribers from dropping their sub at a whim and switch over to PS or Nvidia en masse when those services have a popular game. Those cloud gamers have no allegiance with a cloud gaming brand like they do when they buy a $400-500 console.

 

[Spyxos]

Just casually dropping "next xbox is ARM hybrid" == streaming/mobile-phone-alike

So more mobile games on the console? Or am I getting this wrong? Strange development.

 

[Del_X]

Yeah I'm letting mine expire. Too much slop and not enough time.

 

[Hollowpoint5557]

All these sub/streaming services will eventually implement a minimum 3 or 6 month imo...it isn't sustainable for them to have the huge churn imo.

They sort of already do that. I went to gift a 1 month membership to one of my sons and the minimum was 3 months so I decided to not do it.

 

[Heisenberg007]

I think the next "numbers" coming from them will be cumulative YT view numbers for all videos containing image/gameplay or mentioning a specific game.

---
Has anyone checked on @SenjutsuSage?
He might need some Prozac.

Oh he has been talking about the impending and inevitable doom of PlayStation.



And being in full denial mode.

 

[kyussman]

Games,games.games!......high quality exclusive games is the way to success in this business.....powerful consoles,subscription services,aquisitions,backwards compatibility......none of it matters if you don't make great software people can't play on a competitors hardware.......fucking morons running Xbox,seriously,lol.

 

[OverHeat]

Phil right now

 

[StereoVsn]

- console sales tanking
- gamepass subs dried up
- game studios releasing dreadful games
- not a single banger on the near horizon
- games from studios they recently bought all underperformed or strongly disliked


Things aren't looking too hot.

I don’t know what you are talking about. I read reliable rumors on X, formerly known as Twitter, that Hellblade 2 is full on AAA and will drive amazing sales!

 

[Mibu no ookami]

“You don’t get growth by targeting console sales. Console sales don’t matter.”

Ahh, I am sure then PC GamePass sales are growing at tremendous rates. Oh and TV ones too (GamePass on Samsung TVs)! The strategy is foolproof!

You have to understand that Console GamePass growth is almost entirely dependent on Console growth i.e. sales. PC GamePass growth and TV and Mobile have existing userbases that are far larger than Console and aren't dependent on Microsoft's own sales.

Getting on more screens is ultimately the only way GamePass could ever succeed. Xbox is dead and Microsoft knows it. Getting games on PS5 and Switch/2 means that you can release a sequel on GamePass and the additional exposure might lead to more growth on GamePass...

"Oh I love Sea of Thieves, and Sea of Thieves 2 is on Xbox and GamePass, maybe I'll subscribe via PC or xCloud so I can play it"

It isn't foolproof, really not many strategies are, but it's the logical next step for them.

Their problem is that so much of GamePass' revenue is based on Xbox today and that userbase is going to abandon Xbox as they put games on PS and Nintendo.

 

[StereoVsn]

A person I know said just that, the TV market is HUGE because there's millions or billions of tvs out there.

Reminds me of the whole “China has 1.4 billion people. All we need to get is just 1%.”

 

[PharaoTutAnchAmun]

I dont think there is any surprise here, they will sooner brin g game pass to other platforms and focus on it there than focus on plastic boxes, I think the days of the traditional console platform is almost over.

No i think you are wrong, Sony and Nintendo will keep making consoles if the market is there and i dont think consoles will be absolete in the coming decade.
And dont think that Sony will allow Gamepass on the Playstation, Sony has theyr own subscription service.
When MS would realese theyr first party games as third party games on the Playstation i think that Sony would not have a problem with that even with a 80/20--80/30 split....

 

[StereoVsn]

You have to understand that Console GamePass growth is almost entirely dependent on Console growth i.e. sales. PC GamePass growth and TV and Mobile have existing userbases that are far larger than Console and aren't dependent on Microsoft's own sales.

Getting on more screens is ultimately the only way GamePass could ever succeed. Xbox is dead and Microsoft knows it. Getting games on PS5 and Switch/2 means that you can release a sequel on GamePass and the additional exposure might lead to more growth on GamePass...

"Oh I love Sea of Thieves, and Sea of Thieves 2 is on Xbox and GamePass, maybe I'll subscribe via PC or xCloud so I can play it"

It isn't foolproof, really not many strategies are, but it's the logical next step for them.

Their problem is that so much of GamePass' revenue is based on Xbox today and that userbase is going to abandon Xbox as they put games on PS and Nintendo.

I can’t see any sort of revenue out of above justifying $90 bil spend in studios.

That’s the issue. Their spend to get games out is going to go far beyond what the revenue exists for them to take in. Plus their mindshare will decrease alongside the drop of console sales.

Look at Europe. If anyone thinks that MS Xbox streaming and PC GamePass will do gangbuster there they are delusional.

Edit: Mind you, this is MS and they got essentially unlimited cash to burn if they want to, but at some point CEO/COO/CFO/board and investors will get tired of the money pit.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

You have to understand that Console GamePass growth is almost entirely dependent on Console growth i.e. sales. PC GamePass growth and TV and Mobile have existing userbases that are far larger than Console and aren't dependent on Microsoft's own sales.

Getting on more screens is ultimately the only way GamePass could ever succeed. Xbox is dead and Microsoft knows it. Getting games on PS5 and Switch/2 means that you can release a sequel on GamePass and the additional exposure might lead to more growth on GamePass...

"Oh I love Sea of Thieves, and Sea of Thieves 2 is on Xbox and GamePass, maybe I'll subscribe via PC or xCloud so I can play it"

It isn't foolproof, really not many strategies are, but it's the logical next step for them.

Their problem is that so much of GamePass' revenue is based on Xbox today and that userbase is going to abandon Xbox as they put games on PS and Nintendo.

The next logical step is to go 3rd party and call it a day.

 

[Bernoulli]

Reminds me of the whole “China has 1.4 billion people. All we need to get is just 1%.”

If each person gives me 1 dollar I can become a billionaire

 

[YuLY]

I don’t know what you are talking about. I read reliable rumors on X, formerly known as Twitter, that Hellblade 2 is full on AAA and will drive amazing sales!

I still think that game will be one of their biggest flops. People focus on that stuff cause it is an exclusives, but main market doesnt care about that game/brand. We had Starfield and barely made any dent. They are in a tuff spot lol.

 

[Topher]

Oh he has been talking about the impending and inevitable doom of PlayStation.



And being in full denial mode.

He reads what he wants to read. All Phil Spencer is saying there is Game Pass isn't going to be on other platforms. Nothing about games.

 

[scarlet0pimp]

The ARM cpu thing was leaked in those documents a while back. Its more likely they will design their own CPU in the same way Apple does in the next console. Which could work well for them. I think I read a few years ago that Microsoft took on some people who specialised in designing chips maybe they were ex apple people cant quite remember.
Maybe Microsoft see it as better to have their own chip design rather than go to AMD. Since the Xbox works on virtual operating systems I guess it should be possible to make the system backward compatible even switching to ARM. Windows for ARM is also a thing so Microsoft could perhaps use the same chips in their own branded laptops.
I don't think this means they will be leaving the console space.
It looks like they will strategically bring certain games to other consoles which is again something that came out in the court case so nothing new. I guess they might see the games they release on Playstation as beacons to try and put Xbox in the minds of PlayStation gamers, every time you fire up CoD or HiFi Rush you will see Xbox Game Studios. Perhaps they will even force people to get a Microsoft account to play these games.

 

[WoJ]

Sad. I've loved xbox since the 360 days. I got back into gaming on the 360 and have a huge 360 collection. They are a shell of themselves. At this point I am just waiting for them to clearance the base Series S so I can keep it as a standalone emulation machine that I don't have to flip between retail and dev mode.

 

[DaGwaphics]

Obviously there is some truth to the fact that you saturate the subscriptions to a certain point and then the only new growth on console will be a percentage of the new users coming on board. That's true for Sony as well. I'm not sure why Warren is trying to make that a negative here. Even with Sony selling as many units as they are, a lot of those users will be people that already had a PS4 so growth for the subscriptions will be somewhat limited. PC is a bit more wide open for the moment, just because subscription services are a newer idea in that space.

I'm not sure how a hybrid system of any kind is going change that overall. The easy growth is always going to be at the beginning, MS has a lot of software in the works that should help their subscription numbers (CoD potentially on GP, etc.).

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Shill "journalists" got the latest script, so they're trying their best to calm down the hardcore fans.

If you examine that there is some sense to it, but there are limitations.

Google publishes A LOT of software on iOS, Apple doesn't publish a lot of software on Android.

Their premium apps are exclusive. The only thing they allocate is subscription stuff: Apple Music, Apple TV and then a Beats app, airtag detector, and an app to make switch to iphone easier...

 

[Klayzer]

Amazing how quiet Microsoft is about all of this stuff. Maybe they will clear up some things with the rumored announcement today.

Very unusual for Phil to be this quiet. Methinks he's been somewhat neutered by the powers that be.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

The next logical step is to go 3rd party and call it a day.

That's what they're doing, but unlike Sega, they don't want to destroy what they have. They aren't going to discontinue the XBS right away.

They might produce significantly less of them, but they'll continue to support the Xbox just without exclusives. They want to keep those XBS gamepass subscribers happy, and they want to retain whatever B2P sales they have.

It's very different situation now that everything is digital and subscription compared to 2001 when Sega just said no mas on producing Dreamcasts at a loss and really didn't have much to gain from even developing dreamcast titles any further.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Very unusual for Phil to be quiet. Methinks he's been somewhat neutered by the powers that be.

He was able to deny the 3rd party push right before christmas so they could still sell XBS over the holidays, as much as they can to get inventory levels lower, but he knows they have to start publishing games soon. How long can you deny a thing when it's literally happening?

Why announce Blade, but not announce that it is exclusive? Why not confirm it's exclusive when asked? It's because by leaving in question what games will be exclusive or not, they can maintain the narrative in fanboy communities that there are still potential exclusives and thus value in owning an Xbox. Eventually, we'll hear that Blade is multiplatform, but the time between then and now, Xboxes can still sell and people aren't trading their Xboxes in.

The last thing Microsoft wants is people canceling Gamepass and trading their Series S and X back in to get PS5s only for people to buy 2nd hand Series S/X for pennies on the dollar, but have no interest to get GamePass because they're already cheap and don't spend money like that. A liquidation of the fanbase is entirely possible.

 

[Trogdor1123]

Like I said before Xbox brand as a console is dead.

I really hope not. There are a lot of ips in that shop that I real don’t want to leave the console space or to be heavily watered down. If they go to pc and consile for full fledged games, great, but if they go the mobile route, not so great.

 

[GHG]

I miss 360 era xbox

The leaders were real tough people who knew what it takes to successfully run a business/entertainment product. We're they all likable? No, but the product was and that's what matters.

The bunch they now have running things are, for lack of a better word, soft.

Peter Moore just fucking got it:

"If you believe that this industry is about games. Games industry about games --"

Him with regard to the PS3's struggles at the time:

"You guys write about it everyday, the consumer writes about it. They need something that consumers say, this is why I need to buy a PlayStation 3. Killzone may be that, I don't know what else could be."

Meanwhile you've got Spencer and Co out here selling fucking fridges and toasters. I have no doubt in my mind that if these guys were in charge of playstation during the PS3 era they would have made the George foreman grill meme a reality:

 

[JohnnyFootball]

That's what they're doing, but unlike Sega, they don't want to destroy what they have. They aren't going to discontinue the XBS right away.

They might produce significantly less of them, but they'll continue to support the Xbox just without exclusives. They want to keep those XBS gamepass subscribers happy, and they want to retain whatever B2P sales they have.

It's very different situation now that everything is digital and subscription compared to 2001 when Sega just said no mas on producing Dreamcasts at a loss and really didn't have much to gain from even developing dreamcast titles any further.

I could see them still produce a console, but one that is priced around $700 -$1000. Something they will make money on.

 

[DaGwaphics]

Shill "journalists" got the latest script, so they're trying their best to calm down the hardcore fans.

Does he actually think that Sony and Nintendo would be willing to play along with this idea?

The most you'd ever get from them is throw away junk they didn't care about.

 

[Klayzer]

The leaders were real tough people who knew what it takes to successfully run a business/entertainment product. We're they all likable? No, but the product was and that's what matters.

The bunch they now have running things are, for lack of a better word, soft.

Peter Moore just fucking got it:



Him with regard to the PS3's struggles at the time:




Meanwhile you've got Spencer and Co out here selling fucking fridges and toasters. I have no doubt in my mind that if these guys were in charge of playstation during the PS3 era they would have made the George foreman grill meme a reality:

These threads are destined to be studied for future laughs and tears.

 

[StereoVsn]

He was able to deny the 3rd party push right before christmas so they could still sell XBS over the holidays, as much as they can to get inventory levels lower, but he knows they have to start publishing games soon. How long can you deny a thing when it's literally happening?

Why announce Blade, but not announce that it is exclusive? Why not confirm it's exclusive when asked? It's because by leaving in question what games will be exclusive or not, they can maintain the narrative in fanboy communities that there are still potential exclusives and thus value in owning an Xbox. Eventually, we'll hear that Blade is multiplatform, but the time between then and now, Xboxes can still sell and people aren't trading their Xboxes in.

The last thing Microsoft wants is people canceling Gamepass and trading their Series S and X back in to get PS5s only for people to buy 2nd hand Series S/X for pennies on the dollar, but have no interest to get GamePass because they're already cheap and don't spend money like that. A liquidation of the fanbase is entirely possible.

I was looking at GameStop trade in values and OG PS5 Disk is going for $350 while XSX is going for $235. XSS can be traded for a stick of chewing gum and couple Pokémon card decks.

They do have extra $50 in credit in XSX and PS5 and I am seriously tempted to just trade in both, ride out till the Fall on PC/Switch and get PS5 Pro.

I really pretty much use Xbox for BC now days plus some occasional MCC, Forza and a few other games. Kids pretty much only play Minecraft Legends on it but that’s on everything.

Probably won’t do it since I do like firing up some older Xbox OG, 360 games, etc, but it is tempting.

 

[GermanZepp]

I can't imagine how anyone at Xbox actually sat down in an office and thought it was a good idea to release a new console next year.

At this point i'm just here like

It seems to me that they are trying every trick In the playbook.
Eventually some could work.

 

[StereoVsn]

I really hope not. There are a lot of ips in that shop that I real don’t want to leave the console space or to be heavily watered down. If they go to pc for full fledged games, great, but if they go the console route, not so great.

They could easily publish same IPs on PC, PS5 and perhaps Switch 2. Why would it be “not so great”?

 

[Mibu no ookami]

I was looking at GameStop trade in values and OG PS5 Disk is going for $350 while XSX is going for $235. XSS can be traded for a stick of chewing gum and couple Pokémon card decks.

They do have extra $50 in credit in XSX and PS5 and I am seriously tempted to just trade in both, ride out till the Fall on PC/Switch and get PS5 Pro.

I really pretty much use Xbox for BC now days plus some occasional MCC, Forza and a few other games. Kids pretty much only play Minecraft Legends on it but that’s on everything.

Probably won’t do it since I do like firing up some older Xbox OG, 360 games, etc, but it is tempting.

That tells you a lot. It's because the resell value of the xsx is so low compared to the ps5. To sell the same number of units they have to sell for significantly lower in price and my guess is theyre still not selling. The price will continue to drop as used supply increases.

At 235, that tells you so much.

The trade in value for a series s is 121 and the trade in value for a PS4 is 82.50...

When the PS5 Pro launches, it'll devastate the value of an XSX since it will lower the value of the PS5.

 

[Laptop1991]

Better games will make GP grow, nothing else will work, and the games being released so far are not good enough to do that and are getting too many complaint's not praise, and as a PC gamer, gamepass is no good for me, i use mods like the script extender and like to be able to edit ini files etc, and have far more freedom than Xbox gaming,allows. so i will stick to buying the games i want.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Better games will make GP grow, nothing else will work, and the games being released so far are not good enough to do that and are getting too many complaint's not praise, and as a PC game, gamepass is no good for me, i use mods like the script extender and like to be able to edit ini files etc, and have far more freedom than Xbox gaming,allows. so i will stick to buying the games i want.

GamePass is for publishers that don't believe in their games or their game has stopped selling because everyone interested in paying anything for it has already bought it...

That's not a sustainable value market for GamePass. Game costs are going up and that means publishers want big money from microsoft to be on gamepass. That's why subscription doesn't make a lot of sense for the media.

They're discovering it doesn't make a lot of sense for tv/movies either. The pie is too small.

 

[gothmog]

I think people are overthinking the ARM thing. He's just saying they're going for an inexpensive streaming box that also can play games. What that means as far as performance is the most interesting detail to find out about this approach. I'm sure all of those power crown Xbox enthusiasts are going to be pissed if this becomes their focus.

 

[Laptop1991]

GamePass is for publishers that don't believe in their games or their game has stopped selling because everyone interested in paying anything for it has already bought it...

That's not a sustainable value market for GamePass. Game costs are going up and that means publishers want big money from microsoft to be on gamepass. That's why subscription doesn't make a lot of sense for the media.

They're discovering it doesn't make a lot of sense for tv/movies either. The pie is too small.

Yeah, i agree, it's cheap for Xbox gamer's so they like it, but i don't see it being a success in the long run in making money, no way Rockstar will put GTA 6 on GP day one, they would lose too much money.

 

[TrebleShot]

No i think you are wrong, Sony and Nintendo will keep making consoles if the market is there and i dont think consoles will be absolete in the coming decade.
And dont think that Sony will allow Gamepass on the Playstation, Sony has theyr own subscription service.
When MS would realese theyr first party games as third party games on the Playstation i think that Sony would not have a problem with that even with a 80/20--80/30 split....

Traditional console , there will be consoles but imagine they will look and behave very differently to what we are used to.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

I can’t see any sort of revenue out of above justifying $90 bil spend in studios.

That’s the issue. Their spend to get games out is going to go far beyond what the revenue exists for them to take in. Plus their mindshare will decrease alongside the drop of console sales.

Look at Europe. If anyone thinks that MS Xbox streaming and PC GamePass will do gangbuster there they are delusional.

Edit: Mind you, this is MS and they got essentially unlimited cash to burn if they want to, but at some point CEO/COO/CFO/board and investors will get tired of the money pit.

I mean you can't look at the acquisitions purely from a standpoint of revenue, they're also assets.

I strongly believe Microsoft hoped to leverage Xbox and these studios to get entry into the mobile app market, where they would be able to gain revenue from distributing other paid apps. That's the long game.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Yeah, i agree, it's cheap for Xbox gamer's so they like it, but i don't see it being a success in the long run in making money, no way Rockstar will put GTA 6 on GP day one, they would lose too much money.

That's what I think people are missing is that it's the price of GamePass PLUS the games you're already buying that aren't on GamePass... I'm actually surprised they even have 25 million subscribers.

 

[ProtoByte]

Microsoft's in for a surprise if they think people who weren't attracted to their games enough to buy their machine are going to consume these games en masse on the platforms with games they actually want.

 

[StereoVsn]

I mean you can't look at the acquisitions purely from a standpoint of revenue, they're also assets.

I strongly believe Microsoft hoped to leverage Xbox and these studios to get entry into the mobile app market, where they would be able to gain revenue from distributing other paid apps. That's the long game.

They have nobody in management capable of pushing any of that. They can’t push consoles or console software properly FFS.

The value of companies acquired was also based on the sales premise to multiple platforms.

Basically yes, if they had competent people in charge it could have worked out. But they don’t and haven’t since first half of 360 days and even then some of the choices made were suspect in hindsight.

 

[NickFire]

Does he actually think that Sony and Nintendo would be willing to play along with this idea?

The most you'd ever get from them is throw away junk they didn't care about.

I don't think any messaging will be really directed to Sony or Nintendo.

Expect a choir repeating aspirational goals when a strategy change can't be denied any longer. Better to attribute changes to a holistic attitude rather than failure.

 

[kruis]

That's what I think people are missing is that it's the price of GamePass PLUS the games you're already buying that aren't on GamePass... I'm actually surprised they even have 25 million subscribers.

Gamepass is not the cake itself, it's only the icing on the cake. How many of the millions of casual gamers who only want to play FIFA, GTA or Hogwarts Academy really want to pay an additional $17 each month. Even when MS adds COD to Gamepass, it will still be cheaper to buy the game for $70 than to go for a monthly subscription if you intend to play the game for more than four months. Gamepass only makes sense if you're a hardcore gamer who plays multiple indie games each month and unreservedly loves every single game MS publishes.

 

[onQ123]

“You don’t get growth by targeting console sales. Console sales don’t matter.”

Ahh, I am sure then PC GamePass sales are growing at tremendous rates. Oh and TV ones too (GamePass on Samsung TVs)! The strategy is foolproof!

Tablets & phones is the new target.

They will fight with Apple for dominance in the console level games on phones market but Portal will already be giving everyone a taste of this.

 

[Mephisto40]

Next Box Done

 

[cash_longfellow]

I dont think there is any surprise here, they will sooner brin g game pass to other platforms and focus on it there than focus on plastic boxes, I think the days of the traditional console platform is almost over.

People have been saying this about consoles for two generations now, it’s just not true. Maybe the Xbox console, but consoles are not going away.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Look at Sony, they had the PS+ Collection, which was a wonderful value consisting of some of the best selling PS4 games...

Why did they remove it? Because they realize that they're going to be releasing sequels to these games and remakes to these games at high prices, and they'll be releasing these games on PC. To give them away as if they had no value was a mistake, especially when PS5 was selling itself.

Having TLOU remastered on there hurt the sales of TLOU P1 remake and the PC port.

As more PS5s sell these games can have legs. God of War 2018 almost certainly got a boost in sales when Ragnarok came out, but it probably would have been bigger had the game not been on the Collection.

That's the issue with putting your games in a subscription model. You're cutting out a lot of future sales potential, which is far more valuable than the individual value addition within the sub.

Sony knows they're better off littering PS+ with 3rd party games that are no longer selling that they don't have direct control over.

 

[Trogdor1123]

They could easily publish same IPs on PC, PS5 and perhaps Switch 2. Why would it be “not so great”?

Typo, thanks for catching it. It should be mobile, not console.

 

[K2D]

I dont think there is any surprise here, they will sooner brin g game pass to other platforms and focus on it there than focus on plastic boxes, I think the days of the traditional console platform is almost over.

We've been saying that since the PS3 days

 

[BiohazardX95]

Its no longer the no-brainer deal that it used to be as it's too expensive now. They lost 3 subs just from my house. Now 2 kids in my house only sub for 1 month when there is an expensive game they want to play and then cancel immediately.

That's what everyone should do with any sub, just pay for a month when there is something interesting, then cancel.