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Wkd Box Office 12•11-13•15 - Calm before the Stormtroopers

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ProudCanuck

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JurassicParkwaterripple.gif

ErikDavis @ErikDavis

Breaking: #TheForceAwakens has now broken Fandango's record for the most tickets sold for any film during its entire theatrical run.
 

kswiston

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Given the surprising percentage of those preordered tickets that are for dates other than Opening weekend, I wonder if people are trying to reserve their X-Mas or New Years day seats already. Typically even megablockbusters are down to mostly walk-in and day of online purchases by the second or third weekend. However, the holidays are a special case. Christmas and New Years are two of the busiest days of the year, regardless of what's out.
 

guek

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So someone on the Box Office Theory threads posted a link to an old Box Office Mojo article and pretty much every one of those Wednesday international openings for The Force Awakens was under Deathly Hallows Pt 2 (also a Wed opening overseas) in US dollars. Holidays will extend legs, but I am not seeing anything that remotely points towards $2B overseas yet. Harry Potter finished with $960M ($900M outside of China, which is still higher than anything other than Titanic and Avatar).

My annoyance at people who literally responded to predictions of the international draw for Star Wars being notably less than its appeal in the states with "but it's STAR WARS!! suddenly feels justified.
 

BronsonLee

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My annoyance at people who literally responded to predictions of the international draw for Star Wars being notably less than its appeal in the states with "but it's STAR WARS!! suddenly feels justified.

It was always justified
Fuck that shit
 

mattiewheels

And then the LORD David Bowie saith to his Son, Jonny Depp: 'Go, and spread my image amongst the cosmos. For every living thing is in anguish and only the LIGHT shall give them reprieve.'
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Wasn't the clue that nothing would top Titanic or Avatar the fact that those both started making more money going forward than they did the previous week? No other movie does that, and I bet even this one will still take the regular hit in attendance every week.
 

Mimosa97

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Nice to see people realizing that Star Wars doesn't have the same appeal in the US than it has in the rest of the world.

I think it will cross 1B$ overseas but there's no way it's going to reach 2B$ and beat Avatar.

It will probably reach 700M$ domestic though.
 

kswiston

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Wasn't the clue that nothing would top Titanic or Avatar the fact that those both started making more money going forward than they did the previous week? No other movie does that, and I bet even this one will still take the regular hit in attendance every week.

Yes. But we are slowly getting to the point where mega blockbusters just brute force their way to at least Titanic numbers with normal drops due to their crazy openings. Titanic took 30 days to hit $225M. This seem to point to Star Wars getting there in 3-4 days.

I expect Titanic to finally start making its way down the Box Office list by the end of this decade.
 

guek

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Yes. But we are slowly getting to the point where mega blockbusters just brute force their way to at least Titanic numbers with normal drops due to their crazy openings. Titanic took 30 days to hit $225M. This seem to point to Star Wars getting there in 3-4 days.

I expect Titanic to finally start making its way down the Box Office list by the end of this decade.

I gotta wonder if Ep VIII will beat VII. There's no possible way the hype could be replicated again so soon. VIII seems like it would logically have the best shot as the capstone of a trilogy.
 

LFMartins86

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My annoyance at people who literally responded to predictions of the international draw for Star Wars being notably less than its appeal in the states with "but it's STAR WARS!! suddenly feels justified.
Star Wars will sell more tickets than Harry Potter DH Part 2 did, the difference is in the fact that the dollar is now nearly 25% more valuable in relation to the euro than it was when Harry Potter was released. That´s an huge difference.
For example, that 7.1M$ from France for the opening day for Harry Potter was 4.9M€, while that (not complete) 5.2M$ from the opening day of TFA comes from 4.8M€.
 

gdt

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I gotta wonder if Ep VIII will beat VII. There's no possible way the hype could be replicated again so soon. VIII seems like it would logically have the best shot as the capstone of a trilogy.

Couldn't possibly. Rogue One is coming soon too.

Basically we are in for a lot of Star Wars.
 

kswiston

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Star Wars will sell more tickets than Harry Potter DH Part 2 did, the difference is in the fact that the dollar is now nearly 25% more valuable in relation to the euro than it was when Harry Potter was released.

I have been saying this for like 6 months. It will be even truer for Avatar which had huge attendance + strong foreign currency. Avatar made $83M in Italy. I'll give you one guess as to The Force Awakens' chance of getting to that number on a $2M opening day. France was $175M for Avatar.

I gotta wonder if Ep VIII will beat VII. There's no possible way the hype could be replicated again so soon. VIII seems like it would logically have the best shot as the capstone of a trilogy.

I assume you mean Ep 9. I think that Episode 9 will break whatever weekend tally The Force Awakens puts up this weekend, but fall short on total gross. Especially if Star Wars returns to being a summer film permanently after this year.
 

guek

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I assume you mean Ep 9. I think that Episode 9 will break whatever weekend tally The Force Awakens puts up this weekend, but fall short on total gross. Especially if Star Wars returns to being a summer film permanently after this year.

Whoops, yeah, IX. Yeah, that sounds likely too. Of course, the quality of the movie will play a role as well :p
 

CrichtonKicks

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Whoops, yeah, IX. Yeah, that sounds likely too. Of course, the quality of the movie will play a role as well :p

I think the quality of Episode 8 will be huge. If it can be of great quality *and* manage to have some level of cliffhanger or twist then that would really feed right into Episode 9.
 

vinnygambini

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I have been saying this for like 6 months. It will be even truer for Avatar which had huge attendance + strong foreign currency. Avatar made $83M in Italy. I'll give you one guess as to The Force Awakens' chance of getting to that number on a $2M opening day. France was $175M for Avatar.

Yup, huge difference. You think TFA will outgross Titanic's 2.1b?
 

CreepingFear

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May 2017 is way too soon. They should delay ep VIII.

In many ways, pre-production for 8 took place during Episode 7's filming. JJ and Lawrence let Rian Johnson know the major characters and plot details of 7 to help him prepare for 8. Remember, 7 was originally supposed to come out 6 months earlier, but JJ got Disney to delay it.
 

FoneBone

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I assume you mean Ep 9. I think that Episode 9 will break whatever weekend tally The Force Awakens puts up this weekend, but fall short on total gross. Especially if Star Wars returns to being a summer film permanently after this year.

I think you mean after next year. But seeing as they've set both Episode VIII and the Han Solo movie for Memorial Day weekend, I'm expecting them to stick with that timeframe for the foreseeable future.
 

BronsonLee

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I'm not sure why they want to move it to summer again. It's going to do ridiculous numbers now, and I doubt it'll have much competition
 

kswiston

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Yup, huge difference. You think TFA will outgross Titanic's 2.1b?

If you are counting the re-release, Titanic is closer to $2.2B.

I don't have enough to go on to say either way. Nothing we have seen so far overseas leads me to believe that TFA will close in on $1.5B internationally, but I think most people expect it to make more domestically, perhaps considerably more.

My gut says no. Legs would have to be incredibly good overseas. What we are seeing outside of Australia and New Zealand so far doesn't scream $1.1B not counting China, which is where TFA needs to be, even if it hits $800-850M domestic. However, Holidays are tricky to predict. Europe and Latin America should have good legs.
 

vinnygambini

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If you are counting the re-release, Titanic is closer to $2.2B.

I don't have enough to go on to say either way. Nothing we have seen so far overseas leads me to believe that TFA will close in on $1.5B internationally, but I think most people expect it to make more domestically, perhaps considerably more.

My gut says no. Legs would have to be incredibly good overseas. What we are seeing outside of Australia and New Zealand so far doesn't scream $1.1B not counting China, which is where TFA needs to be, even if it hits $800-850M domestic. However, Holidays are tricky to predict. Europe and Latin America should have good legs.

Alright thanks for the input, are we expecting separate threads for the Friday, Saturday and Sunday grosses? 😅
 

SCULLIBUNDO

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I hate Star Wars but I find it hard to believe people are going to be more excited for Avatar 2 than Star Wars VIII. I would bet VIII would outgross Avatar 2.

I don't think Ep8 will outgross Avatar 2.

China is going to go insane for Avatar 2. Avatar was what opened the Chinese market up in the first place. They went bonkers for it.
 

wachie

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I don't think Ep8 will outgross Avatar 2.

China is going to go insane for Avatar 2. Avatar was what opened the Chinese market up in the first place. They went bonkers for it.
Yeah, you don't know how release dates work for China
 

numble

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I don't think Ep8 will outgross Avatar 2.

China is going to go insane for Avatar 2. Avatar was what opened the Chinese market up in the first place. They went bonkers for it.

They didn't have the same restrictions on foreign releases back then. The first Avatar played for 3 months (more?). And back then there was an import quota that only allowed 20 foreign movies per year. After they were sued in the WTO, China nearly doubled the foreign movies allowed in, but now they take other measures to ensure domestic movies do better.

Now, foreign movies can only play for 4 weeks, and they now blackout months in December and February where foreign movies cannot play.
 

BronsonLee

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Yeah, guys, I'm pretty sure China will bullshit their way to make Avatar 2 run as long as humanly possible
 

SCULLIBUNDO

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They didn't have the same restrictions on foreign releases back then. The first Avatar played for 3 months (more?). And back then there was an import quota that only allowed 20 foreign movies per year. After they were sued in the WTO, China nearly doubled the foreign movies allowed in, but now they take other measures to ensure domestic movies do better.

Now, foreign movies can only play for 4 weeks, and they now blackout months in December and February where foreign movies cannot play.

Actually, they did have those restrictions on foreign releases. In fact, Avatar was pulled from theatres by the Chinese government for their locally made Confuscious film. The government thought Avatar was pulling too much market share from Chinese films. People campaigned for it to return and it was eventually brought back.
 

numble

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Actually, they did have those restrictions on foreign releases. In fact, Avatar was pulled from theatres by the Chinese government for their locally made Confuscious film. People campaigned for it to return and it was eventually brought back.

No, that's not true. They pulled screens within the first month for the Confucius film. Can you point me to where there was a 4 week restriction in 2010? The older Transformers 2 movie also ran for 3 months.
 

kswiston

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Newer, more foreign film friendly regulations might be in place by the time Avatar 2 releases. Aren't those supposed to hit in 2017?

Also, Furious 7 showed that 4 weeks is still enough to get a massive gross in China if audiences are on board. $500M+ in China should be doable by the end of 2017. I don't know if Avatar 2 will hit that high, but something will. Domestic Chinese films are already knocking on the door of $400M.
 

SCULLIBUNDO

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Just because there is a possibility of SW vs Avatar (Dec) release in NA means squat when it comes to China. They could give Smurfs 3 a more preferred release date over any Hollywood clash if it was co-produced by them.

I don't know what you're talking about. I'm talking about overall gross.

Release dates have nothing to do with my post. You're combining two separate posts of mine into a confused claim.
 

Vanish

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I don't think Ep8 will outgross Avatar 2.

China is going to go insane for Avatar 2. Avatar was what opened the Chinese market up in the first place. They went bonkers for it.

I dont think Avatar 2 will do as good as SWVIII cause I dont see the overall passion people have for more Avatar anything like I do in Star Wars. It's not even close. Plus it won't have the novelty of 3d helping it out. But who knows, I could be completely wrong and it'll sell gangbusters again.
 

SCULLIBUNDO

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No, that's not true. They pulled screens within the first month for the Confucius film. Can you point me to where there was a 4 week restriction in 2010? The older Transformers 2 movie also ran for 3 months.

Not official restrictions back then like now. Avatar was subject to the same effect though. It was pulled from theatres four weeks into its run.
 

CrichtonKicks

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I hadn't thought about that. It's still too soon though and that's not even taking into account the spin off.

They should have scheduled the movie for summer 2018.

This Star Wars trilogy has always been planned for 2 year intervals every other summer. When JJ got his wish for a 6 month delay for TFA they weren't willing to push the entire slate back a year nor did they want to stick with December releases for the rest- hence the 18 month window for Episode 8.

What is his other bomba?

If true he joins the elite group, alongside Taylor Kitsch

Blackhat.
 

duckroll

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I do think that it is a question of whether Avatar 2 will have the same effect in China though. I mean on one hand we know they love blockbusters, so it'll do fine, but I'm not really convinced that there's some specific intimate love for the Avatar franchise brand in particular in China. It was just a huge blockbuster which they could relate to, and probably the first one of that scale in this new generation. There's no telling if they will have moved on by the next movie, or if the next movie's visuals and themes might not resonate on the same level. We know so little about Avatar 2 it's hard to even guess imo.
 

Dead

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Not official restrictions back then like now. Avatar was subject to the same effect though. It was pulled from theatres four weeks into its run.
Yeah, there were many articles then about the movie being pulled and how that provoked a widespread backlash from chinese audiences demanding it to be brought back.

Then again, we do know nothing about Avatar 2, but I have more faith in James Cameron preparing a series of films which will present something the likes of which no theater goer has ever seen before with the clout, resources and budget he now has.

Certainly more faith in that than in Colin Treverrow delivering a decent movie
 

Ashhong

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This Star Wars trilogy has always been planned for 2 year intervals every other summer. When JJ got his wish for a 6 month delay for TFA they weren't willing to push the entire slate back a year nor did they want to stick with December releases for the rest- hence the 18 month window for Episode 8.



Blackhat.

Man that movie was pretty boring. I don't know if I would blame Chris for that one though.
 

SCULLIBUNDO

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This Star Wars trilogy has always been planned for 2 year intervals every other summer. When JJ got his wish for a 6 month delay for TFA they weren't willing to push the entire slate back a year nor did they want to stick with December releases for the rest- hence the 18 month window for Episode 8.


Erm, JJ didn't get his wish for a 6 month delay. If he had, it would have released May 2016.
 

wachie

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I don't know what you're talking about. I'm talking about overall gross.

Release dates have nothing to do with my post. You're combining two separate posts of mine into a confused claim.
Release dates (clash) will affect the gross, don't act short sighted unless that was your original intention.
 
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